MGY Stock Analysis: Buy, Sell, or Hold?
MGY - Magnolia Oil & Gas Corporation Class A Common Stock
$26.92
0.09 (0.34%)
▲
5d:
-0.74%
30d:
-7.93%
90d:
-13.97%
HOLD
MODERATE Confidence
Analysis Updated: Jun 24, 2026 12:00 AM ET
Earnings: Jul 29, 2026
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Interactive Price Chart (1 Month)
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Bottom Line:
📊 HOLD: MGY shows mixed signals. Fine to hold existing positions. Not urgent to buy or sell.
📊 HOLD: MGY shows mixed signals. Fine to hold existing positions. Not urgent to buy or sell.
Long-Term Wealth Forecast (2031)
Based on Analyst Consensus Growth & Historical Valuation
0% (Stagnation)
50% (Hyper Growth)
EST. PRICE IN 2031
$27.86
Based on -3.4% avg growth
INTRINSIC VALUE TODAY
$17.30
Trading above historical range
How this is calculated: We use a Growth Decay Model: starting with analyst consensus growth (adjusted above) and gradually slowing it down to a long-term terminal rate (4%) by Year 5. This provides a more realistic valuation than assuming constant hyper-growth. We then apply a 12.7x Exit PE.
In-depth Analysis How we analyze
Valuation Analysis: MGY is currently trading at $26.92, which is considered slightly low relative to its 30-day fair value range of $26.89 to $28.85. From a valuation perspective, the stock is trading at a discount (Forward PE: 10.3) compared to its historical average (12.7). Remarkably, the market is currently pricing in an annual earnings decline of 6.9% over the next few years. This aligns with recent fundamental challenges.
Technical Outlook: Technically, MGY is in a uptrend. The price is currently testing key support at $26.84. A bounce from this level would confirm strength, while a break below could signal further downside.
Market Sentiment: MGY has a weak technical setup (25/100), with bearish trendlines and momentum suggesting caution for short-term entries. Wall Street analysts see significant upside, with an average price target of $33.82 (+25.6%). The stock is fairly positioned - fine to hold existing positions or accumulate slowly on dips, but not an urgent buy.
Technical Outlook: Technically, MGY is in a uptrend. The price is currently testing key support at $26.84. A bounce from this level would confirm strength, while a break below could signal further downside.
Market Sentiment: MGY has a weak technical setup (25/100), with bearish trendlines and momentum suggesting caution for short-term entries. Wall Street analysts see significant upside, with an average price target of $33.82 (+25.6%). The stock is fairly positioned - fine to hold existing positions or accumulate slowly on dips, but not an urgent buy.
Quick Decision Summary
Current Position
SLIGHTLY LOW
Historical Trading Range
$26.89 -
$28.85
Company Quality Score
52/100
(HOLD)
Volume Confirmation
HIGH
Confidence Score
57.1%
All Signals
- BULLISH: Price oversold vs 30-day range
- BEARISH: Weak technical setup (25/100)
- BULLISH: High volume confirmation
- BULLISH: Trading 25.6% below Wall St target ($33.82)
Trading Range Analysis
30-Day Trading Range
$26.89 -
$28.85
Current vs Trading Range
SLIGHTLY LOW
Support & Resistance Levels
Support Level
$26.84
Resistance Level
$28.30
Current Trend
Uptrend
Technical data as of
Jun 9, 2026
Fundamental Context
Forward P/E (Next Year Est.)
10.27
Wall Street Target
$33.82
(+25.6%)
Revenue Growth (YoY)
2.3%
Earnings Growth (YoY)
-0.3%
Profit Margin
24.4%
Valuation Discount vs History
-6.9% cheaper
PE vs Historical
10.3 vs 12.7
CHEAP
Market-Implied Price Targets
If current PE multiple persists
Implied Growth (YoY):
-6.9%
(market-implied from PE analysis)
1-Year Target
$25.06
(-7%)
2-Year Target
$23.33
(-13%)
3-Year Target
$21.72
(-19%)
3-Yr Target (if PE normalizes)
(PE: 10→13)
$26.85
(0%)
3-Year Scenarios
Using analyst projected EPS growth
Bull:
(PE: 21.8, Growth: -10.7%)
$41.60
(+55%)
Base:
(SPY PE: 10.3, Growth: -10.7%)
$19.62
(-27%)
Bear:
(PE: 8.7, Growth: -10.7%)
$16.68
(-38%)
📈
Valuation based on Current Earnings
RECOVERY PLAY: Stock looks expensive now (16x PE), but valuation improves significantly next year (10x PE) as earnings recover.
Trailing PE: 15.51 | Current EPS (TTM): $1.73
Bull Case
$44.70
(+66%)
Analyst growth 51.5%, PE expands to 17.1
Base Case
$40.64
(+51%)
Market implied 51.5%, PE stable at 15.5
Bear Case
$18.24
(-32%)
Severe decline -20.0%, PE contracts to 13.2
These are projections based on PE multiples and EPS growth scenarios, not predictions. Actual results may vary significantly.
💡
Upside Surprise Potential
If earnings stabilize (0% growth), PE could expand from 10.3 to 12.7
Stabilization Target:
$33.28
(+23.6%)
PE Expansion Potential:
+23.6%
Share & Embed Analysis
Last updated: June 24, 2026 6:06 PM ET
Data refreshes hourly during market hours. Next update: 7:06 PM
Data refreshes hourly during market hours. Next update: 7:06 PM
🔥 Top Stocks Breaking Out Now
| Ticker | Score | Recommendation | Change % |
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Technical Signals Check
Is MGY showing a specific setup today?
Insider Activity (6 Months)
0
Buys
5
Sells
Net
INSIDERS SELLING
Recent Transactions
Edward P Djerejian
SELL
18000 shares
2026-03-10
Brian Corales
SELL
33000 shares
2026-03-09
Christopher G Stavros
SELL
119954 shares
2026-03-09
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