MGY Stock Analysis: Buy, Sell, or Hold?
MGY - Magnolia Oil & Gas Corporation Class A Common Stock
$27.19
-0.96 (-3.39%)
▼
5d:
+1.47%
30d:
+7.32%
90d:
-7.03%
WAIT
LOW Confidence
Analysis Updated: Aug 24, 2026 12:00 AM ET
Earnings: Aug 05, 2026
0d
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Interactive Price Chart (1 Month)
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Bottom Line:
📊 MIXED SIGNALS: MGY shows conflicting indicators. Wait for confirmation before entering.
📊 MIXED SIGNALS: MGY shows conflicting indicators. Wait for confirmation before entering.
Long-Term Wealth Forecast (2031)
Based on Analyst Consensus Growth & Historical Valuation
0% (Stagnation)
50% (Hyper Growth)
EST. PRICE IN 2031
$53.45
Based on 6.4% avg growth
INTRINSIC VALUE TODAY
$33.19
18.1% Margin of Safety
How this is calculated: We use a Growth Decay Model: starting with analyst consensus growth (adjusted above) and gradually slowing it down to a long-term terminal rate (4%) by Year 5. This provides a more realistic valuation than assuming constant hyper-growth. We then apply a 12.1x Exit PE.
In-depth Analysis How we analyze
Valuation Analysis: MGY is currently trading at $27.18, which is considered extended relative to its 30-day fair value range of $24.61 to $27.04. From a valuation perspective, the stock is trading at a discount (Forward PE: 8.7) compared to its historical average (12.1). Remarkably, the market is currently pricing in an annual earnings decline of 10.5% over the next few years. This pessimistic expectation contrasts with the company's recent 136.6% earnings growth, suggesting potential undervaluation if the company simply maintains stability.
Technical Outlook: Technically, MGY is in a strong downtrend. Immediate support is located at $25.57, while resistance sits at $28.38. Short-term momentum is weak, with the stock down 3.4% recently.
Market Sentiment: MGY scores 24/100 on our bottoming-setup gauge. Note this measures entry quality, not trend direction — a low score can mean the chart is extended after a strong run (don't chase) or still falling without stabilization; better entries typically come after a pullback toward the 20-day average. Wall Street analysts see significant upside, with an average price target of $32.88 (+16.9%). Current signals suggest waiting for a better entry point before initiating new positions.
Technical Outlook: Technically, MGY is in a strong downtrend. Immediate support is located at $25.57, while resistance sits at $28.38. Short-term momentum is weak, with the stock down 3.4% recently.
Market Sentiment: MGY scores 24/100 on our bottoming-setup gauge. Note this measures entry quality, not trend direction — a low score can mean the chart is extended after a strong run (don't chase) or still falling without stabilization; better entries typically come after a pullback toward the 20-day average. Wall Street analysts see significant upside, with an average price target of $32.88 (+16.9%). Current signals suggest waiting for a better entry point before initiating new positions.
Quick Decision Summary
Current Position
EXTENDED
Historical Trading Range
$24.61 -
$27.04
Company Quality Score
48/100
(HOLD)
Volume Confirmation
HIGH
Confidence Score
21.4%
All Signals
- BEARISH: Price extended above range
- BEARISH: Weak technical setup (24/100)
- BULLISH: High volume confirmation
- BEARISH: Downward momentum (-3.4%)
- BULLISH: Trading below Wall St target ($32.88)
- WARNING: Composite score 48/100 in the bottom quintile — this cohort historically lags the market
Trading Range Analysis
30-Day Trading Range
$24.61 -
$27.04
Current vs Trading Range
EXTENDED
Support & Resistance Levels
Support Level
$25.57
Resistance Level
$28.38
Current Trend
Strong Downtrend
Technical data as of
Aug 24, 2026
Fundamental Context
Forward P/E (Next Year Est.)
8.68
Wall Street Target
$32.88
(+16.9%)
Revenue Growth (YoY)
50.1%
Earnings Growth (YoY)
136.6%
Profit Margin
28.8%
Valuation Discount vs History
-10.5% cheaper
PE vs Historical
8.7 vs 12.1
CHEAP
Market-Implied Price Targets
If current PE multiple persists
Implied Growth (YoY):
-10.5%
(market-implied from PE analysis)
1-Year Target
$25.33
(-10%)
2-Year Target
$22.79
(-19%)
3-Year Target
$20.51
(-27%)
3-Yr Target (if PE normalizes)
(PE: 9→12)
$28.59
(+2%)
3-Year Scenarios
Using analyst projected EPS growth
Bull:
(PE: 20.1, Growth: 8.8%)
$83.85
(+198%)
Base:
(SPY PE: 8.7, Growth: 8.8%)
$36.27
(+29%)
Bear:
(PE: 7.4, Growth: 8.8%)
$30.83
(+10%)
📈
Valuation based on Current Earnings
RECOVERY PLAY: Stock looks expensive now (12x PE), but valuation improves significantly next year (9x PE) as earnings recover.
Trailing PE: 12.01 | Current EPS (TTM): $2.35
Bull Case
$42.82
(+52%)
Analyst growth 37.9%, PE expands to 13.2
Base Case
$38.92
(+38%)
Market implied 37.9%, PE stable at 12.0
Bear Case
$19.19
(-32%)
Severe decline -20.0%, PE contracts to 10.2
These are projections based on PE multiples and EPS growth scenarios, not predictions. Actual results may vary significantly.
💡
Upside Surprise Potential
If earnings stabilize (0% growth), PE could expand from 8.7 to 12.1
Stabilization Target:
$39.22
(+39.4%)
PE Expansion Potential:
+39.4%
Share & Embed Analysis
Last updated: August 24, 2026 3:04 PM ET
Data refreshes hourly during market hours. Next update: 4:04 PM
Data refreshes hourly during market hours. Next update: 4:04 PM
🔥 Top Stocks Breaking Out Now
| Ticker | Score | Recommendation | Change % |
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Technical Signals Check
Is MGY showing a specific setup today?
Insider Activity (6 Months)
0
Buys
5
Sells
Net
INSIDERS SELLING
Recent Transactions
Edward P Djerejian
SELL
18000 shares
2026-03-10
Brian Corales
SELL
33000 shares
2026-03-09
Christopher G Stavros
SELL
119954 shares
2026-03-09
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