MMSI Stock Analysis: Buy, Sell, or Hold?
MMSI - Merit Medical Systems Inc
$73.35
-0.09 (-0.13%)
▼
5d:
+2.65%
30d:
+9.49%
90d:
+7.45%
BUY
MODERATE Confidence
Analysis Updated: Jul 13, 2026 12:00 AM ET
Earnings: Jul 30, 2026
16d
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Interactive Price Chart (1 Month)
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Bottom Line:
💡 BUY OPPORTUNITY: MMSI shows positive signals but monitor for confirmation. Market pricing in 1.6% decline. Moderate conviction.
💡 BUY OPPORTUNITY: MMSI shows positive signals but monitor for confirmation. Market pricing in 1.6% decline. Moderate conviction.
Long-Term Wealth Forecast (2031)
Based on Analyst Consensus Growth & Historical Valuation
0% (Stagnation)
50% (Hyper Growth)
EST. PRICE IN 2031
$102.95
Based on 6.0% avg growth
INTRINSIC VALUE TODAY
$63.93
Trading above historical range
How this is calculated: We use a Growth Decay Model: starting with analyst consensus growth (adjusted above) and gradually slowing it down to a long-term terminal rate (4%) by Year 5. This provides a more realistic valuation than assuming constant hyper-growth. We then apply a 17.5x Exit PE.
In-depth Analysis How we analyze
Valuation Analysis: MMSI is currently trading at $73.34, which is considered extended relative to its 30-day fair value range of $66.00 to $71.46. The stock's valuation (Forward PE: 16.7) is in line with its historical norms (17.5). Remarkably, the market is currently pricing in an annual earnings decline of 1.6% over the next few years. This pessimistic expectation contrasts with the company's recent 38.8% earnings growth, suggesting potential undervaluation if the company simply maintains stability.
Technical Outlook: Technically, MMSI is in a downtrend. The price is approaching resistance at $74.82. A breakout above this level would be a bullish signal, while rejection here could lead to consolidation.
Market Sentiment: MMSI has a strong technical setup (75/100), with favorable trendlines, momentum, and price action for short-term traders. Wall Street analysts see significant upside, with an average price target of $89.55 (+21.9%). Combining these factors, the current setup offers a favorable risk/reward ratio for buyers.
Technical Outlook: Technically, MMSI is in a downtrend. The price is approaching resistance at $74.82. A breakout above this level would be a bullish signal, while rejection here could lead to consolidation.
Market Sentiment: MMSI has a strong technical setup (75/100), with favorable trendlines, momentum, and price action for short-term traders. Wall Street analysts see significant upside, with an average price target of $89.55 (+21.9%). Combining these factors, the current setup offers a favorable risk/reward ratio for buyers.
Quick Decision Summary
Current Position
EXTENDED
Historical Trading Range
$66.00 -
$71.46
Company Quality Score
63/100
(BUY)
Volume Confirmation
HIGH
Confidence Score
61.9%
All Signals
- BEARISH: Price extended above range
- BULLISH: Strong technical setup (75/100)
- BULLISH: High volume confirmation
- BULLISH: Trading 21.9% below Wall St target ($89.55)
Trading Range Analysis
30-Day Trading Range
$66.00 -
$71.46
Current vs Trading Range
EXTENDED
Support & Resistance Levels
Support Level
$68.27
Resistance Level
$74.82
Current Trend
Downtrend
Technical data as of
Jul 13, 2026
Fundamental Context
Forward P/E (Next Year Est.)
16.70
Wall Street Target
$89.55
(+21.9%)
Revenue Growth (YoY)
7.5%
Earnings Growth (YoY)
38.8%
Profit Margin
9.0%
Valuation Discount vs History
-1.6% cheaper
PE vs Historical
16.7 vs 17.5
FAIR
Market-Implied Price Targets
If current PE multiple persists
Implied Growth (YoY):
-1.6%
(market-implied from PE analysis)
1-Year Target
$72.26
(-2%)
2-Year Target
$71.11
(-3%)
3-Year Target
$69.97
(-5%)
3-Yr Target (if PE normalizes)
(PE: 17→18)
$73.33
(0%)
3-Year Scenarios
Using analyst projected EPS growth
Bull:
(PE: 21.8, Growth: 8.0%)
$120.77
(+64%)
Base:
(SPY PE: 16.7, Growth: 8.0%)
$92.59
(+26%)
Bear:
(PE: 14.2, Growth: 8.0%)
$78.70
(+7%)
📈
Valuation based on Current Earnings
RECOVERY PLAY: Stock looks expensive now (31x PE), but valuation improves significantly next year (17x PE) as earnings recover.
Trailing PE: 30.67 | Current EPS (TTM): $2.33
Bull Case
$148.38
(+102%)
Analyst growth 88.8%, PE expands to 33.7
Base Case
$134.89
(+84%)
Market implied 88.8%, PE stable at 30.7
Bear Case
$48.59
(-34%)
Severe decline -20.0%, PE contracts to 26.1
These are projections based on PE multiples and EPS growth scenarios, not predictions. Actual results may vary significantly.
💡
Upside Surprise Potential
If earnings stabilize (0% growth), PE could expand from 16.7 to 17.5
Stabilization Target:
$76.97
(+4.8%)
PE Expansion Potential:
+4.8%
Share & Embed Analysis
Last updated: July 13, 2026 3:34 PM ET
Data refreshes hourly during market hours. Next update: 4:34 PM
Data refreshes hourly during market hours. Next update: 4:34 PM
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Technical Signals Check
Is MMSI showing a specific setup today?
Insider Activity (6 Months)
0
Buys
0
Sells
0
Net
NEUTRAL
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