Is ALGN stock a Buy, Sell, or Hold?

Based on our analysis, ALGN is currently a HOLD with low confidence. 📊 HOLD: ALGN shows mixed signals. Fine to hold existing positions. Not urgent to buy or sell.

What is the fair value of ALGN stock?

Our analysis estimates the fair value range for ALGN to be between $142.99 and $154.72. The current price is $142.71.

What is the analyst price target for ALGN?

The average Wall Street analyst price target for ALGN is $201.71. This implies a potential upside of 41.3% from current levels.

Align Technology (ALGN) Stock: Buy, Sell, or Hold?

ALGN - Align Technology Inc

ORTHOPEDIC, PROSTHETIC & SURGICAL APPLIANCES & SUPPLIES

$142.71

1.68 (1.19%) ▲

5d: -0.72%

30d: -5.31%

90d: -20.98%

HOLD

LOW Confidence

Protect Your ALGN Gains

Analysis Updated: Oct 9, 2026 12:00 AM ET

Earnings: Oct 28, 2026 18d

Smart Money Accumulation

Options open interest is building while the stock consolidates - a pattern consistent with institutional accumulation. View Scanner →

Signal fired Oct 7, 2026 at $139.87 · last confirmed Oct 7, 2026

Strength: 6.5/10

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Interactive Price Chart (1 Month)

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💡

Bottom Line:
📊 HOLD: ALGN shows mixed signals. Fine to hold existing positions. Not urgent to buy or sell.

See Forward Earnings Fair Value & Price Prediction →

Long-Term Wealth Forecast (2031)

Based on Analyst Consensus Growth & Historical Valuation

Adjust Growth Assumption: 10.7%

0% (Stagnation) 50% (Hyper Growth)

EST. PRICE IN 2031

$248.78

Based on 7.4% avg growth

INTRINSIC VALUE TODAY

$154.47

7.6% Margin of Safety

How this is calculated: We use a Growth Decay Model: starting with analyst consensus growth (adjusted above) and gradually slowing it down to a long-term terminal rate (4%) by Year 5. This provides a more realistic valuation than assuming constant hyper-growth. We then apply a 14.0x Exit PE.

View Full DCF Model

In-depth Analysis How we analyze

Valuation Analysis: ALGN is currently trading at $142.71, which is considered oversold relative to its 30-day fair value range of $142.99 to $154.72. From a valuation perspective, the stock is trading at a discount (Forward PE: 11.4) compared to its historical average (14.0). Remarkably, the market is currently pricing in an annual earnings decline of 6.5% over the next few years. This aligns with recent fundamental challenges.

Technical Outlook: Technically, ALGN is in a strong downtrend. Immediate support is located at $138.05, while resistance sits at $147.09.

Market Sentiment: ALGN scores 76/100 on our bottoming-setup gauge — the chart has corrected and is stabilizing (RSI reset, momentum turning up), historically a favorable entry zone. Wall Street analysts see significant upside, with an average price target of $201.71 (+41.3%). The stock is fairly positioned - fine to hold existing positions or accumulate slowly on dips, but not an urgent buy.

Quick Decision Summary

Current Position OVERSOLD

Historical Trading Range $142.99 - $154.72

Company Quality Score 62/100 (BUY)

Volume Confirmation HIGH

Confidence Score 90.5%

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All Signals

BULLISH: Price oversold vs 30-day range
BULLISH: Strong technical setup (76/100)
BULLISH: High volume confirmation
BULLISH: Trading 41.3% below Wall St target ($201.71)
CAUTION: Bottoming setup, but lagging the sector by 12% over 20 days — wait for relative strength

Trading Range Analysis

30-Day Trading Range $142.99 - $154.72

Current vs Trading Range OVERSOLD

Support & Resistance Levels

Support Level $138.05

Resistance Level $147.09

Current Trend Strong Downtrend

Technical data as of Oct 9, 2026

Fundamental Context

Forward P/E (Next Year Est.) 11.44

Wall Street Target $201.71 (+41.3%)

Revenue Growth (YoY) 4.3%

Earnings Growth (YoY) -12.1%

Profit Margin 10.0%

Valuation Discount vs History -6.5% cheaper

PE vs Historical 11.4 vs 14.0 CHEAP

Market-Implied Price Targets If current PE multiple persists

Implied Growth (YoY): -6.5% (market-implied from PE analysis)

1-Year Target $133.43 (-7%)

2-Year Target $124.76 (-13%)

3-Year Target $116.65 (-18%)

3-Yr Target (if PE normalizes) (PE: 11→14) $142.81 (+0%)

3-Year Scenarios Using analyst projected EPS growth

Bull: (PE: 19.9, Growth: 10.7%) $336.50 (+136%)

Base: (SPY PE: 11.4, Growth: 10.7%) $193.76 (+36%)

Bear: (PE: 9.7, Growth: 10.7%) $164.70 (+15%)

📈 Valuation based on Current Earnings

RECOVERY PLAY: Stock looks expensive now (25x PE), but valuation improves significantly next year (11x PE) as earnings recover.

Trailing PE: 24.53 | Current EPS (TTM): $5.75

Bull Case $310.27 (+117%)

Analyst growth 100.0%, PE expands to 27.0

Base Case $282.06 (+98%)

Market implied 100.0%, PE stable at 24.5

Bear Case $95.90 (-33%)

Severe decline -20.0%, PE contracts to 20.9

These are projections based on PE multiples and EPS growth scenarios, not predictions. Actual results may vary significantly.

💡 Upside Surprise Potential

If earnings stabilize (0% growth), PE could expand from 11.4 to 14.0

Stabilization Target: $174.71 (+22.4%)

PE Expansion Potential: +22.4%

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Last updated: October 09, 2026 6:00 PM ET
Data refreshes hourly during market hours. Next update: 7:00 PM

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