Merit Medical Systems (MMSI) Stock: Buy, Sell, or Hold?
MMSI - Merit Medical Systems Inc
$86.15
-0.08 (-0.09%)
▼
5d:
-1.32%
30d:
-5.0%
90d:
+21.18%
HOLD
MODERATE Confidence
Analysis Updated: Oct 1, 2026 12:00 AM ET
Earnings: Oct 29, 2026
26d
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Interactive Price Chart (1 Month)
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Bottom Line:
📊 HOLD: MMSI is fairly valued with market pricing in 1.6% annual growth. Fine to hold or accumulate slowly on dips.
📊 HOLD: MMSI is fairly valued with market pricing in 1.6% annual growth. Fine to hold or accumulate slowly on dips.
Long-Term Wealth Forecast (2031)
Based on Analyst Consensus Growth & Historical Valuation
0% (Stagnation)
50% (Hyper Growth)
EST. PRICE IN 2031
$107.76
Based on 5.6% avg growth
INTRINSIC VALUE TODAY
$66.91
Trading above historical range
How this is calculated: We use a Growth Decay Model: starting with analyst consensus growth (adjusted above) and gradually slowing it down to a long-term terminal rate (4%) by Year 5. This provides a more realistic valuation than assuming constant hyper-growth. We then apply a 17.8x Exit PE.
In-depth Analysis How we analyze
Valuation Analysis: MMSI is currently trading at $86.15, which is considered slightly low relative to its 30-day fair value range of $86.07 to $89.73. The stock's valuation (Forward PE: 18.7) is in line with its historical norms (17.8). At these levels, the market is pricing in 1.6% annual earnings growth. This growth rate appears achievable given the company's track record, suggesting the valuation is rational.
Technical Outlook: Technically, MMSI is in a strong uptrend. The price is currently testing key support at $84.12. A bounce from this level would confirm strength, while a break below could signal further downside.
Market Sentiment: The stock scores a mixed 44/100 on our bottoming-setup gauge, with only partial signs of a stabilized entry point. Wall Street analysts see significant upside, with an average price target of $101.45 (+17.8%). The stock is fairly positioned - fine to hold existing positions or accumulate slowly on dips, but not an urgent buy.
Technical Outlook: Technically, MMSI is in a strong uptrend. The price is currently testing key support at $84.12. A bounce from this level would confirm strength, while a break below could signal further downside.
Market Sentiment: The stock scores a mixed 44/100 on our bottoming-setup gauge, with only partial signs of a stabilized entry point. Wall Street analysts see significant upside, with an average price target of $101.45 (+17.8%). The stock is fairly positioned - fine to hold existing positions or accumulate slowly on dips, but not an urgent buy.
Quick Decision Summary
Current Position
SLIGHTLY LOW
Historical Trading Range
$86.07 -
$89.73
Company Quality Score
56/100
(HOLD)
Volume Confirmation
HIGH
Confidence Score
78.1%
All Signals
- BULLISH: Price oversold vs 30-day range
- NEUTRAL: Mixed technical signals (44/100)
- BULLISH: High volume confirmation
- BULLISH: Trading below Wall St target ($101.45)
- NEUTRAL: Market pricing in 1.6% annual earnings growth - fairly valued
- NEUTRAL: Bottoming setup forming (44/100) — watch for confirmation
Trading Range Analysis
30-Day Trading Range
$86.07 -
$89.73
Current vs Trading Range
SLIGHTLY LOW
Support & Resistance Levels
Support Level
$84.12
Resistance Level
$88.23
Current Trend
Strong Uptrend
Technical data as of
Oct 1, 2026
Fundamental Context
Forward P/E (Next Year Est.)
18.68
Wall Street Target
$101.45
(+17.8%)
Revenue Growth (YoY)
9.5%
Earnings Growth (YoY)
20.4%
Profit Margin
9.2%
Valuation Premium vs History
+1.6% premium
PE vs Historical
18.7 vs 17.8
FAIR
Market-Implied Price Targets
If current PE multiple persists
Implied Growth (YoY):
+1.6%
(market-implied from PE analysis)
1-Year Target
$87.53
(+2%)
2-Year Target
$88.93
(+3%)
3-Year Target
$90.35
(+5%)
3-Yr Target (if PE normalizes)
(PE: 19→18)
PE COMPRESSION
$86.09
(0%)
Earnings growth offset by PE compression
3-Year Scenarios
Using analyst projected EPS growth
Bull:
(PE: 20.4, Growth: 7.2%)
$115.86
(+35%)
Base:
(SPY PE: 18.7, Growth: 7.2%)
$106.10
(+23%)
Bear:
(PE: 15.9, Growth: 7.2%)
$90.18
(+5%)
📈
Valuation based on Current Earnings
RECOVERY PLAY: Stock looks expensive now (36x PE), but valuation improves significantly next year (19x PE) as earnings recover.
Trailing PE: 36.08 | Current EPS (TTM): $2.39
Bull Case
$183.02
(+112%)
Analyst growth 92.9%, PE expands to 39.7
Base Case
$166.38
(+93%)
Market implied 92.9%, PE stable at 36.1
Bear Case
$58.64
(-32%)
Severe decline -20.0%, PE contracts to 30.7
These are projections based on PE multiples and EPS growth scenarios, not predictions. Actual results may vary significantly.
Share & Embed Analysis
Last updated: October 01, 2026 10:25 PM ET
Data refreshes hourly during market hours. Next update: 11:25 PM
Data refreshes hourly during market hours. Next update: 11:25 PM
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Technical Signals Check
Is MMSI showing a specific setup today?
Insider Activity (6 Months)
0
Buys
0
Sells
0
Net
NEUTRAL
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