MMSI Stock Analysis: Buy, Sell, or Hold?
MMSI - Merit Medical Systems Inc
$85.01
1.66 (1.99%)
▲
5d:
+14.38%
30d:
+22.4%
90d:
+24.68%
HOLD
MODERATE Confidence
Analysis Updated: Jul 31, 2026 12:00 AM ET
Earnings: Jul 30, 2026
0d
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Interactive Price Chart (1 Month)
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Bottom Line:
📊 HOLD - EXTENDED: MMSI is 9.7% above its trading range ($77.46). Fundamentals are solid but entry is stretched. Hold existing positions; wait for pullback to add new shares.
📊 HOLD - EXTENDED: MMSI is 9.7% above its trading range ($77.46). Fundamentals are solid but entry is stretched. Hold existing positions; wait for pullback to add new shares.
Long-Term Wealth Forecast (2031)
Based on Analyst Consensus Growth & Historical Valuation
0% (Stagnation)
50% (Hyper Growth)
EST. PRICE IN 2031
$103.00
Based on 6.0% avg growth
INTRINSIC VALUE TODAY
$63.96
Trading above historical range
How this is calculated: We use a Growth Decay Model: starting with analyst consensus growth (adjusted above) and gradually slowing it down to a long-term terminal rate (4%) by Year 5. This provides a more realistic valuation than assuming constant hyper-growth. We then apply a 17.5x Exit PE.
In-depth Analysis How we analyze
Valuation Analysis: MMSI is currently trading at $85.01, which is considered extended relative to its 30-day fair value range of $69.07 to $77.46. From a valuation perspective, the stock is trading at a premium (Forward PE: 19.3) compared to its historical average (17.5). At these levels, the market is pricing in 3.4% annual earnings growth. This growth rate appears achievable given the company's track record, suggesting the valuation is rational.
Technical Outlook: Technically, MMSI is in a uptrend. Immediate support is located at $71.62, while resistance sits at $87.83.
Market Sentiment: MMSI has a strong technical setup (60/100), with favorable trendlines, momentum, and price action for short-term traders. The stock is fairly positioned - fine to hold existing positions or accumulate slowly on dips, but not an urgent buy.
Technical Outlook: Technically, MMSI is in a uptrend. Immediate support is located at $71.62, while resistance sits at $87.83.
Market Sentiment: MMSI has a strong technical setup (60/100), with favorable trendlines, momentum, and price action for short-term traders. The stock is fairly positioned - fine to hold existing positions or accumulate slowly on dips, but not an urgent buy.
Quick Decision Summary
Current Position
EXTENDED
Historical Trading Range
$69.07 -
$77.46
Company Quality Score
55/100
(HOLD)
Volume Confirmation
HIGH
Confidence Score
53.3%
All Signals
- BEARISH: Price extended above range (+9.7% above its trading range)
- BULLISH: Strong technical setup (60/100)
- BULLISH: High volume confirmation
- NEUTRAL: Near Wall St target ($90.09)
- NEUTRAL: Market pricing in 3.4% annual earnings growth - fairly valued
Trading Range Analysis
30-Day Trading Range
$69.07 -
$77.46
Current vs Trading Range
EXTENDED
Support & Resistance Levels
Support Level
$71.62
Resistance Level
$87.83
Current Trend
Uptrend
Technical data as of
Jul 31, 2026
Fundamental Context
Forward P/E (Next Year Est.)
19.32
Wall Street Target
$90.09
(+6.0%)
Revenue Growth (YoY)
7.5%
Earnings Growth (YoY)
38.8%
Profit Margin
9.0%
Valuation Premium vs History
+3.4% premium
PE vs Historical
19.3 vs 17.5
FAIR
Market-Implied Price Targets
If current PE multiple persists
Implied Growth (YoY):
+3.4%
(market-implied from PE analysis)
1-Year Target
$87.90
(+3%)
2-Year Target
$90.89
(+7%)
3-Year Target
$93.98
(+11%)
3-Yr Target (if PE normalizes)
(PE: 19→18)
PE COMPRESSION
$85.13
(+0%)
Earnings growth offset by PE compression
3-Year Scenarios
Using analyst projected EPS growth
Bull:
(PE: 20.7, Growth: 8.0%)
$114.99
(+35%)
Base:
(SPY PE: 19.3, Growth: 8.0%)
$107.16
(+26%)
Bear:
(PE: 16.4, Growth: 8.0%)
$91.09
(+7%)
📈
Valuation based on Current Earnings
RECOVERY PLAY: Stock looks expensive now (35x PE), but valuation improves significantly next year (19x PE) as earnings recover.
Trailing PE: 34.87 | Current EPS (TTM): $2.39
Bull Case
$168.80
(+99%)
Analyst growth 84.1%, PE expands to 38.4
Base Case
$153.46
(+81%)
Market implied 84.1%, PE stable at 34.9
Bear Case
$56.68
(-33%)
Severe decline -20.0%, PE contracts to 29.6
These are projections based on PE multiples and EPS growth scenarios, not predictions. Actual results may vary significantly.
Share & Embed Analysis
Last updated: August 02, 2026 1:53 PM ET
Data refreshes hourly during market hours. Next update: 2:53 PM
Data refreshes hourly during market hours. Next update: 2:53 PM
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Technical Signals Check
Is MMSI showing a specific setup today?
Insider Activity (6 Months)
0
Buys
0
Sells
0
Net
NEUTRAL
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