MMSI Stock Analysis: Buy, Sell, or Hold?
MMSI - Merit Medical Systems Inc
$66.50
-0.72 (-1.07%)
▼
5d:
-0.05%
30d:
+3.12%
90d:
-0.31%
BUY
HIGH Confidence
Analysis Updated: Jun 22, 2026 12:00 AM ET
Earnings: Jul 29, 2026
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Interactive Price Chart (1 Month)
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Bottom Line:
✅ BUY SIGNAL: MMSI appears deeply undervalued. Market expects -5.1% annual earnings decline despite 39% recent earnings growth. Contrarian opportunity at discount to historical valuation.
✅ BUY SIGNAL: MMSI appears deeply undervalued. Market expects -5.1% annual earnings decline despite 39% recent earnings growth. Contrarian opportunity at discount to historical valuation.
Long-Term Wealth Forecast (2031)
Based on Analyst Consensus Growth & Historical Valuation
0% (Stagnation)
50% (Hyper Growth)
EST. PRICE IN 2031
$104.13
Based on 6.0% avg growth
INTRINSIC VALUE TODAY
$64.66
Trading above historical range
How this is calculated: We use a Growth Decay Model: starting with analyst consensus growth (adjusted above) and gradually slowing it down to a long-term terminal rate (4%) by Year 5. This provides a more realistic valuation than assuming constant hyper-growth. We then apply a 17.7x Exit PE.
In-depth Analysis How we analyze
Valuation Analysis: MMSI is currently trading at $66.50, which is considered slightly high relative to its 30-day fair value range of $62.44 to $66.64. From a valuation perspective, the stock is trading at a discount (Forward PE: 15.1) compared to its historical average (17.7). Remarkably, the market is currently pricing in an annual earnings decline of 5.1% over the next few years. This pessimistic expectation contrasts with the company's recent 38.8% earnings growth, suggesting potential undervaluation if the company simply maintains stability.
Technical Outlook: Technically, MMSI is in a strong downtrend. Immediate support is located at $64.04, while resistance sits at $69.08.
Market Sentiment: MMSI has a strong technical setup (60/100), with favorable trendlines, momentum, and price action for short-term traders. Wall Street analysts see significant upside, with an average price target of $89.55 (+34.7%). Combining these factors, the current setup offers a favorable risk/reward ratio for buyers.
Technical Outlook: Technically, MMSI is in a strong downtrend. Immediate support is located at $64.04, while resistance sits at $69.08.
Market Sentiment: MMSI has a strong technical setup (60/100), with favorable trendlines, momentum, and price action for short-term traders. Wall Street analysts see significant upside, with an average price target of $89.55 (+34.7%). Combining these factors, the current setup offers a favorable risk/reward ratio for buyers.
Quick Decision Summary
Current Position
SLIGHTLY HIGH
Historical Trading Range
$62.44 -
$66.64
Company Quality Score
56/100
(HOLD)
Volume Confirmation
HIGH
Confidence Score
76.2%
All Signals
- BULLISH: Strong technical setup (60/100)
- BULLISH: High volume confirmation
- BULLISH: Trading 34.7% below Wall St target ($89.55)
Trading Range Analysis
30-Day Trading Range
$62.44 -
$66.64
Current vs Trading Range
SLIGHTLY HIGH
Support & Resistance Levels
Support Level
$64.04
Resistance Level
$69.08
Current Trend
Strong Downtrend
Technical data as of
Jun 22, 2026
Fundamental Context
Forward P/E (Next Year Est.)
15.12
Wall Street Target
$89.55
(+34.7%)
Revenue Growth (YoY)
7.5%
Earnings Growth (YoY)
38.8%
Profit Margin
9.0%
Valuation Discount vs History
-5.1% cheaper
PE vs Historical
15.1 vs 17.7
CHEAP
Market-Implied Price Targets
If current PE multiple persists
Implied Growth (YoY):
-5.1%
(market-implied from PE analysis)
1-Year Target
$63.11
(-5%)
2-Year Target
$59.89
(-10%)
3-Year Target
$56.84
(-15%)
3-Yr Target (if PE normalizes)
(PE: 15→18)
$66.53
(0%)
3-Year Scenarios
Using analyst projected EPS growth
Bull:
(PE: 21.8, Growth: 8.0%)
$120.77
(+82%)
Base:
(SPY PE: 15.1, Growth: 8.0%)
$83.84
(+26%)
Bear:
(PE: 12.9, Growth: 8.0%)
$71.26
(+7%)
📈
Valuation based on Current Earnings
RECOVERY PLAY: Stock looks expensive now (29x PE), but valuation improves significantly next year (15x PE) as earnings recover.
Trailing PE: 28.97 | Current EPS (TTM): $2.32
Bull Case
$140.17
(+111%)
Analyst growth 89.6%, PE expands to 31.9
Base Case
$127.43
(+92%)
Market implied 89.6%, PE stable at 29.0
Bear Case
$45.71
(-31%)
Severe decline -20.0%, PE contracts to 24.6
These are projections based on PE multiples and EPS growth scenarios, not predictions. Actual results may vary significantly.
💡
Upside Surprise Potential
If earnings stabilize (0% growth), PE could expand from 15.1 to 17.7
Stabilization Target:
$77.85
(+17.1%)
PE Expansion Potential:
+17.1%
Share & Embed Analysis
Last updated: June 23, 2026 8:44 AM ET
Data refreshes hourly during market hours. Next update: 9:44 AM
Data refreshes hourly during market hours. Next update: 9:44 AM
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Technical Signals Check
Is MMSI showing a specific setup today?
Insider Activity (6 Months)
0
Buys
0
Sells
0
Net
NEUTRAL
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