MSM Stock Analysis: Buy, Sell, or Hold?
MSM - MSC Industrial Direct Co., Inc. Class A
$116.26
-1.15 (-0.98%)
▼
5d:
+1.79%
30d:
+9.7%
90d:
+33.46%
HOLD
MODERATE Confidence
Analysis Updated: Jun 23, 2026 12:00 AM ET
Earnings: Jul 01, 2026
6d
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Interactive Price Chart (1 Month)
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Bottom Line:
📊 HOLD: MSM trades at premium valuation expecting 5.5% growth. Hold existing positions but don't chase. Wait for better entry.
📊 HOLD: MSM trades at premium valuation expecting 5.5% growth. Hold existing positions but don't chase. Wait for better entry.
Long-Term Wealth Forecast (2031)
Based on Analyst Consensus Growth & Historical Valuation
0% (Stagnation)
50% (Hyper Growth)
EST. PRICE IN 2031
$152.78
Based on 9.1% avg growth
INTRINSIC VALUE TODAY
$94.86
Trading above historical range
How this is calculated: We use a Growth Decay Model: starting with analyst consensus growth (adjusted above) and gradually slowing it down to a long-term terminal rate (4%) by Year 5. This provides a more realistic valuation than assuming constant hyper-growth. We then apply a 20.0x Exit PE.
In-depth Analysis How we analyze
Valuation Analysis: MSM is currently trading at $116.26, which is considered slightly high relative to its 30-day fair value range of $108.09 to $117.36. From a valuation perspective, the stock is trading at a premium (Forward PE: 23.5) compared to its historical average (20.0). At these levels, the market is pricing in 5.5% annual earnings growth. This growth rate appears achievable given the company's track record, suggesting the valuation is rational.
Technical Outlook: Technically, MSM is in a strong uptrend. The price is approaching resistance at $119.13. A breakout above this level would be a bullish signal, while rejection here could lead to consolidation.
Market Sentiment: The stock shows a mixed technical setup (55/100), with neutral trendline and momentum signals. However, the stock is trading significantly above the average Wall Street target of $103.14. The stock is fairly positioned - fine to hold existing positions or accumulate slowly on dips, but not an urgent buy.
Technical Outlook: Technically, MSM is in a strong uptrend. The price is approaching resistance at $119.13. A breakout above this level would be a bullish signal, while rejection here could lead to consolidation.
Market Sentiment: The stock shows a mixed technical setup (55/100), with neutral trendline and momentum signals. However, the stock is trading significantly above the average Wall Street target of $103.14. The stock is fairly positioned - fine to hold existing positions or accumulate slowly on dips, but not an urgent buy.
Quick Decision Summary
Current Position
SLIGHTLY HIGH
Historical Trading Range
$108.09 -
$117.36
Company Quality Score
59/100
(HOLD)
Volume Confirmation
HIGH
Confidence Score
54.8%
All Signals
- NEUTRAL: Mixed technical signals (55/100)
- BULLISH: High volume confirmation
- BEARISH: Trading 11.3% above Wall St target ($103.14)
- NEUTRAL: Trading at premium valuation - market expects 5.5% growth which is achievable
Trading Range Analysis
30-Day Trading Range
$108.09 -
$117.36
Current vs Trading Range
SLIGHTLY HIGH
Support & Resistance Levels
Support Level
$106.04
Resistance Level
$119.13
Current Trend
Strong Uptrend
Technical data as of
Jun 9, 2026
Fundamental Context
Forward P/E (Next Year Est.)
23.46
Wall Street Target
$103.14
(-11.3%)
Revenue Growth (YoY)
2.9%
Earnings Growth (YoY)
8.6%
Profit Margin
5.4%
Valuation Premium vs History
+5.5% premium
PE vs Historical
23.5 vs 20.0
STRETCHED
Market-Implied Price Targets
If current PE multiple persists
Implied Growth (YoY):
+5.5%
(market-implied from PE analysis)
1-Year Target
$122.65
(+6%)
2-Year Target
$129.40
(+11%)
3-Year Target
$136.52
(+17%)
3-Yr Target (if PE normalizes)
(PE: 23→20)
PE COMPRESSION
$116.38
(+0%)
Earnings growth offset by PE compression
3-Year Scenarios
Using analyst projected EPS growth
Bull:
(PE: 23.5, Growth: 14.2%)
$173.34
(+49%)
Base:
(SPY PE: 21.8, Growth: 14.2%)
$160.93
(+38%)
Bear:
(PE: 18.5, Growth: 14.2%)
$136.79
(+18%)
📈
Valuation based on Current Earnings
RECOVERY PLAY: Stock looks expensive now (32x PE), but valuation improves significantly next year (23x PE) as earnings recover.
Trailing PE: 31.56 | Current EPS (TTM): $3.72
Bull Case
$172.05
(+48%)
Analyst growth 33.2%, PE expands to 34.7
Base Case
$156.41
(+35%)
Market implied 33.2%, PE stable at 31.6
Bear Case
$79.84
(-31%)
Severe decline -20.0%, PE contracts to 26.8
These are projections based on PE multiples and EPS growth scenarios, not predictions. Actual results may vary significantly.
Share & Embed Analysis
Last updated: June 24, 2026 2:34 AM ET
Data refreshes hourly during market hours. Next update: 3:34 AM
Data refreshes hourly during market hours. Next update: 3:34 AM
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Technical Signals Check
Is MSM showing a specific setup today?
Insider Activity (6 Months)
0
Buys
0
Sells
0
Net
NEUTRAL
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