MSM Stock Analysis: Buy, Sell, or Hold?
MSM - MSC Industrial Direct Co., Inc. Class A
$123.99
0.97 (0.79%)
▲
5d:
+2.35%
30d:
+7.67%
90d:
+29.86%
HOLD
MODERATE Confidence
Analysis Updated: Jul 13, 2026 12:00 AM ET
Earnings: Jul 01, 2026
0d
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Interactive Price Chart (1 Month)
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Bottom Line:
📊 HOLD: MSM is fairly valued with market pricing in 4.2% annual growth. Fine to hold or accumulate slowly on dips.
📊 HOLD: MSM is fairly valued with market pricing in 4.2% annual growth. Fine to hold or accumulate slowly on dips.
Long-Term Wealth Forecast (2031)
Based on Analyst Consensus Growth & Historical Valuation
0% (Stagnation)
50% (Hyper Growth)
EST. PRICE IN 2031
$181.91
Based on 10.8% avg growth
INTRINSIC VALUE TODAY
$112.95
Trading above historical range
How this is calculated: We use a Growth Decay Model: starting with analyst consensus growth (adjusted above) and gradually slowing it down to a long-term terminal rate (4%) by Year 5. This provides a more realistic valuation than assuming constant hyper-growth. We then apply a 20.3x Exit PE.
In-depth Analysis How we analyze
Valuation Analysis: MSM is currently trading at $123.99, which is considered extended relative to its 30-day fair value range of $115.53 to $121.10. From a valuation perspective, the stock is trading at a premium (Forward PE: 22.9) compared to its historical average (20.3). At these levels, the market is pricing in 4.2% annual earnings growth. This growth rate appears achievable given the company's track record, suggesting the valuation is rational.
Technical Outlook: Technically, MSM is in a strong uptrend. The price is approaching resistance at $119.13. A breakout above this level would be a bullish signal, while rejection here could lead to consolidation.
Market Sentiment: MSM has a strong technical setup (75/100), with favorable trendlines, momentum, and price action for short-term traders. The stock is fairly positioned - fine to hold existing positions or accumulate slowly on dips, but not an urgent buy.
Technical Outlook: Technically, MSM is in a strong uptrend. The price is approaching resistance at $119.13. A breakout above this level would be a bullish signal, while rejection here could lead to consolidation.
Market Sentiment: MSM has a strong technical setup (75/100), with favorable trendlines, momentum, and price action for short-term traders. The stock is fairly positioned - fine to hold existing positions or accumulate slowly on dips, but not an urgent buy.
Quick Decision Summary
Current Position
EXTENDED
Historical Trading Range
$115.53 -
$121.10
Company Quality Score
62/100
(BUY)
Volume Confirmation
HIGH
Confidence Score
58.1%
All Signals
- BEARISH: Price extended above range
- BULLISH: Strong technical setup (75/100)
- BULLISH: High volume confirmation
- NEUTRAL: Near Wall St target ($125.67)
- NEUTRAL: Market pricing in 4.2% annual earnings growth - fairly valued
Trading Range Analysis
30-Day Trading Range
$115.53 -
$121.10
Current vs Trading Range
EXTENDED
Support & Resistance Levels
Support Level
$106.04
Resistance Level
$119.13
Current Trend
Strong Uptrend
Technical data as of
Jun 9, 2026
Fundamental Context
Forward P/E (Next Year Est.)
22.95
Wall Street Target
$125.67
(+1.4%)
Revenue Growth (YoY)
7.8%
Earnings Growth (YoY)
41.1%
Profit Margin
5.9%
Valuation Premium vs History
+4.2% premium
PE vs Historical
23.0 vs 20.3
FAIR
Market-Implied Price Targets
If current PE multiple persists
Implied Growth (YoY):
+4.2%
(market-implied from PE analysis)
1-Year Target
$129.20
(+4%)
2-Year Target
$134.62
(+9%)
3-Year Target
$140.28
(+13%)
3-Yr Target (if PE normalizes)
(PE: 23→20)
PE COMPRESSION
$124.10
(+0%)
Earnings growth offset by PE compression
3-Year Scenarios
Using analyst projected EPS growth
Bull:
(PE: 22.9, Growth: 17.5%)
$201.10
(+62%)
Base:
(SPY PE: 21.8, Growth: 17.5%)
$190.87
(+54%)
Bear:
(PE: 18.5, Growth: 17.5%)
$162.24
(+31%)
📈
Valuation based on Current Earnings
RECOVERY PLAY: Stock looks expensive now (30x PE), but valuation improves significantly next year (23x PE) as earnings recover.
Trailing PE: 29.64 | Current EPS (TTM): $4.15
Bull Case
$176.19
(+42%)
Analyst growth 30.2%, PE expands to 32.6
Base Case
$160.17
(+29%)
Market implied 30.2%, PE stable at 29.6
Bear Case
$83.65
(-33%)
Severe decline -20.0%, PE contracts to 25.2
These are projections based on PE multiples and EPS growth scenarios, not predictions. Actual results may vary significantly.
Share & Embed Analysis
Last updated: July 14, 2026 1:27 AM ET
Data refreshes hourly during market hours. Next update: 2:27 AM
Data refreshes hourly during market hours. Next update: 2:27 AM
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Technical Signals Check
Is MSM showing a specific setup today?
Insider Activity (6 Months)
0
Buys
0
Sells
0
Net
NEUTRAL
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