MSM Stock Analysis: Buy, Sell, or Hold?
MSM - MSC Industrial Direct Co., Inc. Class A
$117.21
2.04 (1.77%)
▲
5d:
+9.04%
30d:
+15.82%
90d:
+28.04%
HOLD
MODERATE Confidence
Analysis Updated: Jun 3, 2026 12:00 AM ET
Earnings: Jul 07, 2026
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Interactive Price Chart (1 Month)
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Bottom Line:
📊 HOLD: MSM trades at premium valuation expecting 6.5% growth. Hold existing positions but don't chase. Wait for better entry.
📊 HOLD: MSM trades at premium valuation expecting 6.5% growth. Hold existing positions but don't chase. Wait for better entry.
Long-Term Wealth Forecast (2031)
Based on Analyst Consensus Growth & Historical Valuation
0% (Stagnation)
50% (Hyper Growth)
EST. PRICE IN 2031
$149.89
Based on 9.2% avg growth
INTRINSIC VALUE TODAY
$93.07
Trading above historical range
How this is calculated: We use a Growth Decay Model: starting with analyst consensus growth (adjusted above) and gradually slowing it down to a long-term terminal rate (4%) by Year 5. This provides a more realistic valuation than assuming constant hyper-growth. We then apply a 19.6x Exit PE.
In-depth Analysis How we analyze
Valuation Analysis: MSM is currently trading at $117.21, which is considered extended relative to its 30-day fair value range of $102.47 to $110.12. From a valuation perspective, the stock is trading at a premium (Forward PE: 23.7) compared to its historical average (19.6). At these levels, the market is pricing in 6.5% annual earnings growth. This growth rate appears achievable given the company's track record, suggesting the valuation is rational.
Technical Outlook: Technically, MSM is in a strong uptrend. The price is approaching resistance at $117.27. A breakout above this level would be a bullish signal, while rejection here could lead to consolidation.
Market Sentiment: MSM has a strong technical setup (60/100), with favorable trendlines, momentum, and price action for short-term traders. However, the stock is trading significantly above the average Wall Street target of $96.17. The stock is fairly positioned - fine to hold existing positions or accumulate slowly on dips, but not an urgent buy.
Technical Outlook: Technically, MSM is in a strong uptrend. The price is approaching resistance at $117.27. A breakout above this level would be a bullish signal, while rejection here could lead to consolidation.
Market Sentiment: MSM has a strong technical setup (60/100), with favorable trendlines, momentum, and price action for short-term traders. However, the stock is trading significantly above the average Wall Street target of $96.17. The stock is fairly positioned - fine to hold existing positions or accumulate slowly on dips, but not an urgent buy.
Quick Decision Summary
Current Position
EXTENDED
Historical Trading Range
$102.47 -
$110.12
Company Quality Score
64/100
(BUY)
Volume Confirmation
HIGH
Confidence Score
46.7%
All Signals
- BEARISH: Price extended above range (+6.4% above its trading range)
- BULLISH: Strong technical setup (60/100)
- BULLISH: High volume confirmation
- BEARISH: Trading 18.0% above Wall St target ($96.17)
- NEUTRAL: Trading at premium valuation - market expects 6.5% growth which is achievable
Trading Range Analysis
30-Day Trading Range
$102.47 -
$110.12
Current vs Trading Range
EXTENDED
Support & Resistance Levels
Support Level
$102.97
Resistance Level
$117.27
Current Trend
Strong Uptrend
Technical data as of
Jun 3, 2026
Fundamental Context
Forward P/E (Next Year Est.)
23.68
Wall Street Target
$96.17
(-18.0%)
Revenue Growth (YoY)
2.9%
Earnings Growth (YoY)
8.6%
Profit Margin
5.4%
Valuation Premium vs History
+6.5% premium
PE vs Historical
23.7 vs 19.6
STRETCHED
Market-Implied Price Targets
If current PE multiple persists
Implied Growth (YoY):
+6.5%
(market-implied from PE analysis)
1-Year Target
$124.83
(+7%)
2-Year Target
$132.94
(+13%)
3-Year Target
$141.58
(+21%)
3-Yr Target (if PE normalizes)
(PE: 24→20)
PE COMPRESSION
$117.20
(0%)
Earnings growth offset by PE compression
3-Year Scenarios
Using analyst projected EPS growth
Bull:
(PE: 23.7, Growth: 14.3%)
$175.11
(+49%)
Base:
(SPY PE: 21.9, Growth: 14.3%)
$162.03
(+38%)
Bear:
(PE: 18.6, Growth: 14.3%)
$137.73
(+18%)
📈
Valuation based on Current Earnings
RECOVERY PLAY: Stock looks expensive now (29x PE), but valuation improves significantly next year (24x PE) as earnings recover.
Trailing PE: 29.21 | Current EPS (TTM): $3.68
Bull Case
$159.17
(+45%)
Analyst growth 34.6%, PE expands to 32.1
Base Case
$144.70
(+32%)
Market implied 34.6%, PE stable at 29.2
Bear Case
$73.09
(-33%)
Severe decline -20.0%, PE contracts to 24.8
These are projections based on PE multiples and EPS growth scenarios, not predictions. Actual results may vary significantly.
Share & Embed Analysis
Last updated: June 03, 2026 6:35 PM ET
Data refreshes hourly during market hours. Next update: 7:35 PM
Data refreshes hourly during market hours. Next update: 7:35 PM
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Technical Signals Check
Is MSM showing a specific setup today?
Insider Activity (6 Months)
0
Buys
0
Sells
0
Net
NEUTRAL
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