MSC Industrial Direct (MSM) Stock: Buy, Sell, or Hold?
MSM - MSC Industrial Direct Co., Inc. Class A
$130.12
1.62 (1.26%)
▲
5d:
+7.34%
30d:
+11.72%
90d:
+7.41%
WAIT
LOW Confidence
Analysis Updated: Oct 2, 2026 12:00 AM ET
Earnings: Oct 22, 2026
17d
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Interactive Price Chart (1 Month)
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Bottom Line:
📊 MIXED SIGNALS: MSM shows conflicting indicators. Wait for confirmation before entering.
📊 MIXED SIGNALS: MSM shows conflicting indicators. Wait for confirmation before entering.
Long-Term Wealth Forecast (2031)
Based on Analyst Consensus Growth & Historical Valuation
0% (Stagnation)
50% (Hyper Growth)
EST. PRICE IN 2031
$191.21
Based on 11.2% avg growth
INTRINSIC VALUE TODAY
$118.72
Trading above historical range
How this is calculated: We use a Growth Decay Model: starting with analyst consensus growth (adjusted above) and gradually slowing it down to a long-term terminal rate (4%) by Year 5. This provides a more realistic valuation than assuming constant hyper-growth. We then apply a 20.8x Exit PE.
In-depth Analysis How we analyze
Valuation Analysis: MSM is currently trading at $130.12, which is considered extended relative to its 30-day fair value range of $118.48 to $124.32. From a valuation perspective, the stock is trading at a premium (Forward PE: 23.9) compared to its historical average (20.8). At these levels, the market is pricing in 4.8% annual earnings growth. This growth rate appears achievable given the company's track record, suggesting the valuation is rational.
Technical Outlook: Technically, MSM is in a uptrend. The price is approaching resistance at $132.33. A breakout above this level would be a bullish signal, while rejection here could lead to consolidation.
Market Sentiment: MSM scores 30/100 on our bottoming-setup gauge. Note this measures entry quality, not trend direction — a low score can mean the chart is extended after a strong run (don't chase) or still falling without stabilization; better entries typically come after a pullback toward the 20-day average. Current signals suggest waiting for a better entry point before initiating new positions.
Technical Outlook: Technically, MSM is in a uptrend. The price is approaching resistance at $132.33. A breakout above this level would be a bullish signal, while rejection here could lead to consolidation.
Market Sentiment: MSM scores 30/100 on our bottoming-setup gauge. Note this measures entry quality, not trend direction — a low score can mean the chart is extended after a strong run (don't chase) or still falling without stabilization; better entries typically come after a pullback toward the 20-day average. Current signals suggest waiting for a better entry point before initiating new positions.
Quick Decision Summary
Current Position
EXTENDED
Historical Trading Range
$118.48 -
$124.32
Company Quality Score
51/100
(HOLD)
Volume Confirmation
HIGH
Confidence Score
24.8%
All Signals
- BEARISH: Price extended above range
- BEARISH: Weak technical setup (30/100)
- BULLISH: High volume confirmation
- NEUTRAL: Near Wall St target ($131.00)
- NEUTRAL: Market pricing in 4.8% annual earnings growth - fairly valued
- WARNING: Composite score 50/100 in the bottom quintile — this cohort historically lags the market
Trading Range Analysis
30-Day Trading Range
$118.48 -
$124.32
Current vs Trading Range
EXTENDED
Support & Resistance Levels
Support Level
$119.34
Resistance Level
$132.33
Current Trend
Uptrend
Technical data as of
Oct 2, 2026
Fundamental Context
Forward P/E (Next Year Est.)
23.89
Wall Street Target
$131.00
(+0.7%)
Revenue Growth (YoY)
7.8%
Earnings Growth (YoY)
41.1%
Profit Margin
5.9%
Valuation Premium vs History
+4.8% premium
PE vs Historical
23.9 vs 20.8
FAIR
Market-Implied Price Targets
If current PE multiple persists
Implied Growth (YoY):
+4.8%
(market-implied from PE analysis)
1-Year Target
$136.37
(+5%)
2-Year Target
$142.91
(+10%)
3-Year Target
$149.77
(+15%)
3-Yr Target (if PE normalizes)
(PE: 24→21)
PE COMPRESSION
$130.40
(+0%)
Earnings growth offset by PE compression
3-Year Scenarios
Using analyst projected EPS growth
Bull:
(PE: 23.9, Growth: 18.3%)
$215.53
(+66%)
Base:
(SPY PE: 20.4, Growth: 18.3%)
$184.05
(+41%)
Bear:
(PE: 17.3, Growth: 18.3%)
$156.44
(+20%)
📈
Valuation based on Current Earnings
RECOVERY PLAY: Stock looks expensive now (30x PE), but valuation improves significantly next year (24x PE) as earnings recover.
Trailing PE: 29.88 | Current EPS (TTM): $4.30
Bull Case
$179.05
(+38%)
Analyst growth 26.7%, PE expands to 32.9
Base Case
$162.77
(+25%)
Market implied 26.7%, PE stable at 29.9
Bear Case
$87.38
(-33%)
Severe decline -20.0%, PE contracts to 25.4
These are projections based on PE multiples and EPS growth scenarios, not predictions. Actual results may vary significantly.
Share & Embed Analysis
Last updated: October 04, 2026 4:37 AM ET
Data refreshes hourly during market hours. Next update: 5:37 AM
Data refreshes hourly during market hours. Next update: 5:37 AM
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Technical Signals Check
Is MSM showing a specific setup today?
Insider Activity (6 Months)
0
Buys
0
Sells
0
Net
NEUTRAL
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