MSC Industrial Direct (MSM) Stock: Buy, Sell, or Hold?
MSM - MSC Industrial Direct Co., Inc. Class A
$120.51
0.83 (0.69%)
▲
5d:
+2.22%
30d:
+0.9%
90d:
+4.27%
BUY
MODERATE Confidence
Analysis Updated: Sep 11, 2026 12:00 AM ET
Earnings: Oct 22, 2026
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Interactive Price Chart (1 Month)
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Bottom Line:
💡 BUY OPPORTUNITY: MSM shows positive signals but monitor for confirmation. Market pricing in 2.4% annual growth which appears achievable. Moderate conviction.
💡 BUY OPPORTUNITY: MSM shows positive signals but monitor for confirmation. Market pricing in 2.4% annual growth which appears achievable. Moderate conviction.
Long-Term Wealth Forecast (2031)
Based on Analyst Consensus Growth & Historical Valuation
0% (Stagnation)
50% (Hyper Growth)
EST. PRICE IN 2031
$189.33
Based on 11.2% avg growth
INTRINSIC VALUE TODAY
$117.56
Trading above historical range
How this is calculated: We use a Growth Decay Model: starting with analyst consensus growth (adjusted above) and gradually slowing it down to a long-term terminal rate (4%) by Year 5. This provides a more realistic valuation than assuming constant hyper-growth. We then apply a 20.6x Exit PE.
In-depth Analysis How we analyze
Valuation Analysis: MSM is currently trading at $120.51, which is considered fair relative to its 30-day fair value range of $118.39 to $122.62. The stock's valuation (Forward PE: 22.1) is in line with its historical norms (20.6). At these levels, the market is pricing in 2.4% annual earnings growth. This growth rate appears achievable given the company's track record, suggesting the valuation is rational.
Technical Outlook: Technically, MSM is in a strong uptrend. The price is approaching resistance at $123.05. A breakout above this level would be a bullish signal, while rejection here could lead to consolidation.
Market Sentiment: MSM scores 65/100 on our bottoming-setup gauge — the chart has corrected and is stabilizing (RSI reset, momentum turning up), historically a favorable entry zone. Combining these factors, the current setup offers a favorable risk/reward ratio for buyers.
Technical Outlook: Technically, MSM is in a strong uptrend. The price is approaching resistance at $123.05. A breakout above this level would be a bullish signal, while rejection here could lead to consolidation.
Market Sentiment: MSM scores 65/100 on our bottoming-setup gauge — the chart has corrected and is stabilizing (RSI reset, momentum turning up), historically a favorable entry zone. Combining these factors, the current setup offers a favorable risk/reward ratio for buyers.
Quick Decision Summary
Current Position
FAIR
Historical Trading Range
$118.39 -
$122.62
Company Quality Score
62/100
(BUY)
Volume Confirmation
HIGH
Confidence Score
79.5%
All Signals
- NEUTRAL: Price in fair range
- BULLISH: Strong technical setup (65/100)
- BULLISH: High volume confirmation
- NEUTRAL: Near Wall St target ($131.00)
- NEUTRAL: Market pricing in 2.4% annual earnings growth - fairly valued
- BULLISH: Bottoming setup score 65/100 — corrected, stabilizing, and turning up
Trading Range Analysis
30-Day Trading Range
$118.39 -
$122.62
Current vs Trading Range
FAIR
Support & Resistance Levels
Support Level
$115.73
Resistance Level
$123.05
Current Trend
Strong Uptrend
Technical data as of
Sep 11, 2026
Fundamental Context
Forward P/E (Next Year Est.)
22.13
Wall Street Target
$131.00
(+8.7%)
Revenue Growth (YoY)
7.8%
Earnings Growth (YoY)
41.1%
Profit Margin
5.9%
Valuation Premium vs History
+2.4% premium
PE vs Historical
22.1 vs 20.6
FAIR
Market-Implied Price Targets
If current PE multiple persists
Implied Growth (YoY):
+2.4%
(market-implied from PE analysis)
1-Year Target
$123.40
(+2%)
2-Year Target
$126.36
(+5%)
3-Year Target
$129.40
(+7%)
3-Yr Target (if PE normalizes)
(PE: 22→21)
PE COMPRESSION
$120.46
(0%)
Earnings growth offset by PE compression
3-Year Scenarios
Using analyst projected EPS growth
Bull:
(PE: 22.1, Growth: 18.3%)
$199.50
(+66%)
Base:
(SPY PE: 20.2, Growth: 18.3%)
$181.84
(+51%)
Bear:
(PE: 17.1, Growth: 18.3%)
$154.56
(+28%)
📈
Valuation based on Current Earnings
RECOVERY PLAY: Stock looks expensive now (29x PE), but valuation improves significantly next year (22x PE) as earnings recover.
Trailing PE: 28.84 | Current EPS (TTM): $4.15
Bull Case
$172.75
(+43%)
Analyst growth 31.2%, PE expands to 31.7
Base Case
$157.05
(+30%)
Market implied 31.2%, PE stable at 28.8
Bear Case
$81.38
(-33%)
Severe decline -20.0%, PE contracts to 24.5
These are projections based on PE multiples and EPS growth scenarios, not predictions. Actual results may vary significantly.
Share & Embed Analysis
Last updated: September 14, 2026 2:51 AM ET
Data refreshes hourly during market hours. Next update: 3:51 AM
Data refreshes hourly during market hours. Next update: 3:51 AM
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Technical Signals Check
Is MSM showing a specific setup today?
Insider Activity (6 Months)
0
Buys
0
Sells
0
Net
NEUTRAL
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