MSM
MSC Industrial Direct Co., Inc. Class A
WHOLESALE-INDUSTRIAL MACHINERY & EQUIPMENT
MSC Industrial Direct (MSM) Stock: Buy, Sell, or Hold?
$119.43
-1.44 (-1.19%)
▼
5d:
+7.64%
30d:
-9.92%
90d:
-3.55%
QUANTITATIVE VERDICT
BUY
HIGH Confidence (91%)
Quality Score
67/100
Position
SLIGHTLY LOW
30-Day Fair Range
$116.85 – $130.28
Position: SLIGHTLY LOW
Forward P/E & Valuation
21.6x
FAIR
vs 21.0x historical avg
Wall Street Target
$134.63
+12.7% upside
Options IV & Volume
HIGH Vol
HIGH volume confirmation
Support / Resistance
$110.29 / $123.70
Trend: Sideways
Executive Thesis & Bottom Line
Forward Earnings Fair Value & Price Prediction →
✅ BUY SIGNAL: MSM shows strong fundamentals and good volume confirmation. Solid entry point despite slightly low pricing.
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Interactive Price Chart (1 Month)
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Long-Term Wealth Forecast (2031)
Based on Analyst Consensus Growth & Historical Valuation
0% (Stagnation)
50% (Hyper Growth)
EST. PRICE IN 2031
$202.30
Based on 11.9% avg growth
INTRINSIC VALUE TODAY
$125.61
4.9% Margin of Safety
How this is calculated: We use a Growth Decay Model: starting with analyst consensus growth (adjusted above) and gradually slowing it down to a long-term terminal rate (4%) by Year 5. This provides a more realistic valuation than assuming constant hyper-growth. We then apply a 21.0x Exit PE.
In-depth Analysis How we analyze
Valuation Analysis: MSM is currently trading at $119.43, which is considered slightly low relative to its 30-day fair value range of $116.85 to $130.28. The stock's valuation (Forward PE: 21.6) is in line with its historical norms (21.0). At these levels, the market is pricing in 1.0% annual earnings growth.
Technical Outlook: Technically, MSM is showing sideways momentum. Immediate support is located at $110.29, while resistance sits at $123.70.
Market Sentiment: MSM scores 82/100 on our bottoming-setup gauge — the chart has corrected and is stabilizing (RSI reset, momentum turning up), historically a favorable entry zone. Wall Street analysts see significant upside, with an average price target of $134.62 (+12.7%). Combining these factors, the current setup offers a favorable risk/reward ratio for buyers.
Technical Outlook: Technically, MSM is showing sideways momentum. Immediate support is located at $110.29, while resistance sits at $123.70.
Market Sentiment: MSM scores 82/100 on our bottoming-setup gauge — the chart has corrected and is stabilizing (RSI reset, momentum turning up), historically a favorable entry zone. Wall Street analysts see significant upside, with an average price target of $134.62 (+12.7%). Combining these factors, the current setup offers a favorable risk/reward ratio for buyers.
Quick Decision Summary
Current Position
SLIGHTLY LOW
Historical Trading Range
$116.85 -
$130.28
Company Quality Score
67/100
(BUY)
Volume Confirmation
HIGH
Confidence Score
91.4%
Trading Range & Key Levels
30-Day Trading Range
$116.85 -
$130.28
Current vs Trading Range
SLIGHTLY LOW
Support Level
$110.29
Resistance Level
$123.70
Current Trend
Sideways
Technical data as of
Nov 12, 2026
Quantitative Signal Breakdown
- BULLISH: Price oversold vs 30-day range
- BULLISH: Strong technical setup (82/100)
- BULLISH: High volume confirmation
- BULLISH: Trading below Wall St target ($134.62)
- BULLISH: Expecting earnings turnaround to 1.0% growth with 10.3% revenue growth
- BULLISH: Bottoming setup score 82/100 — corrected, stabilizing, and turning up
Fundamental Context
Forward P/E (Next Year Est.)
21.62
Wall Street Target
$134.63
(+12.7%)
Revenue Growth (YoY)
10.3%
Earnings Growth (YoY)
-15.4%
Profit Margin
5.5%
Valuation Premium vs History
+1.0% premium
PE vs Historical
21.6 vs 21.0
FAIR
Market-Implied Price Targets
If current PE multiple persists
Implied Growth (YoY):
+1.0%
(market-implied from PE analysis)
1-Year Target
$120.62
(+1%)
2-Year Target
$121.83
(+2%)
3-Year Target
$123.05
(+3%)
3-Yr Target (if PE normalizes)
(PE: 22→21)
PE COMPRESSION
$119.54
(+0%)
Earnings growth offset by PE compression
3-Year Scenarios
Using analyst projected EPS growth
Bull:
(PE: 21.6, Growth: 19.8%)
$205.36
(+72%)
Base:
(SPY PE: 19.9, Growth: 19.8%)
$188.68
(+58%)
Bear:
(PE: 16.9, Growth: 19.8%)
$160.38
(+34%)
📈
Valuation based on Current Earnings
RECOVERY PLAY: Stock looks expensive now (30x PE), but valuation improves significantly next year (22x PE) as earnings recover.
Trailing PE: 30.37 | Current EPS (TTM): $3.98
Bull Case
$184.57
(+55%)
Analyst growth 38.8%, PE expands to 33.4
Base Case
$167.79
(+41%)
Market implied 38.8%, PE stable at 30.4
Bear Case
$82.19
(-31%)
Severe decline -20.0%, PE contracts to 25.8
These are projections based on PE multiples and EPS growth scenarios, not predictions. Actual results may vary significantly.
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bloggers & journalists: you are free to use our charts with attribution.Reddit & Retail Trader Sentiment (MSM)
Bullish
4 Retail Mentions
Reddit / WSB Comments
3
Bullish
StockTwits Volume
1 msgs
24h retail stream
Last Tracked
Nov 13, 2026
Daily AI digest
AI Retail Discussion Summary:
Traders on StockTwits are bullish on $MSM following recent dividend increases announced by LMT, LECO, AOS, IDA, and MSM.
Key Retail Themes:
dividend increases
Aggregated from r/wallstreetbets, r/stocks & StockTwits streams.
View All Trending Reddit & WSB Stocks →
Last updated: November 13, 2026 4:25 AM ET
Data refreshes hourly during market hours. Next update: 5:25 AM
Data refreshes hourly during market hours. Next update: 5:25 AM
🔥 Top Stocks Breaking Out Now
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Technical Signals Check
Is MSM showing a specific setup today?
Insider Activity (6 Months)
0
Buys
0
Sells
0
Net
NEUTRAL
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