What is the fair value of NCLH stock?

Our analysis estimates the fair value range for NCLH to be between $18.15 and $20.12. The current price is $17.24.

What is the analyst price target for NCLH?

The average Wall Street analyst price target for NCLH is $20.68. This implies a potential upside of 20.0% from current levels.

NCLH Stock Analysis: Buy, Sell, or Hold?

NCLH - Norwegian Cruise Line Holdings Ltd. Ordinary Shares

WATER TRANSPORTATION

$17.24

0.49 (2.93%) ▲

5d: -9.31%

30d: -7.86%

90d: +4.68%

HOLD

MODERATE Confidence

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Analysis Updated: Aug 21, 2026 12:00 AM ET

Earnings: Jul 30, 2026 0d

Smart Money Accumulation

Options open interest is building while the stock consolidates - a pattern consistent with institutional accumulation. View Scanner →

Signal fired Aug 7, 2026 at $19.25 · last confirmed Aug 19, 2026

Strength: 8.5/10

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Interactive Price Chart (1 Month)

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💡

Bottom Line:
📊 HOLD: NCLH trades at premium valuation expecting 6.0% growth. Hold existing positions but don't chase. Wait for better entry.

See Forward Earnings Fair Value & Price Prediction →

Long-Term Wealth Forecast (2031)

Based on Analyst Consensus Growth & Historical Valuation

Adjust Growth Assumption: 10.0%

0% (Stagnation) 50% (Hyper Growth)

EST. PRICE IN 2031

$20.33

Based on 7.0% avg growth

INTRINSIC VALUE TODAY

$12.63

Trading above historical range

How this is calculated: We use a Growth Decay Model: starting with analyst consensus growth (adjusted above) and gradually slowing it down to a long-term terminal rate (4%) by Year 5. This provides a more realistic valuation than assuming constant hyper-growth. We then apply a 8.6x Exit PE.

View Full DCF Model

In-depth Analysis How we analyze

Valuation Analysis: NCLH is currently trading at $17.24, which is considered oversold relative to its 30-day fair value range of $18.15 to $20.12. From a valuation perspective, the stock is trading at a premium (Forward PE: 10.2) compared to its historical average (8.6). At these levels, the market is pricing in 6.0% annual earnings growth. This growth rate appears achievable given the company's track record, suggesting the valuation is rational.

Technical Outlook: Technically, NCLH is in a strong uptrend. Immediate support is located at $16.42, while resistance sits at $19.60.

Market Sentiment: The stock scores a mixed 57/100 on our bottoming-setup gauge, with only partial signs of a stabilized entry point. Wall Street analysts see significant upside, with an average price target of $20.68 (+20.0%). The stock is fairly positioned - fine to hold existing positions or accumulate slowly on dips, but not an urgent buy.

Quick Decision Summary

Current Position OVERSOLD

Historical Trading Range $18.15 - $20.12

Company Quality Score 59/100 (HOLD)

Volume Confirmation HIGH

Confidence Score 77.1%

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All Signals

BULLISH: Price oversold vs 30-day range
NEUTRAL: Mixed technical signals (57/100)
BULLISH: High volume confirmation
BULLISH: Trading below Wall St target ($20.68)
NEUTRAL: PE elevated vs history but 6.0% growth expectation is conservative given 616% recent growth
NEUTRAL: Bottoming setup forming (57/100) — watch for confirmation
CAUTION: 5-day price weakness (-9.3%) - monitor closely

Trading Range Analysis

30-Day Trading Range $18.15 - $20.12

Current vs Trading Range OVERSOLD

Support & Resistance Levels

Support Level $16.42

Resistance Level $19.60

Current Trend Strong Uptrend

Technical data as of Aug 21, 2026

Fundamental Context

Forward P/E (Next Year Est.) 10.22

Wall Street Target $20.68 (+20.0%)

Revenue Growth (YoY) 4.9%

Earnings Growth (YoY) 616.3%

Profit Margin 7.5%

Valuation Premium vs History +6.0% premium

PE vs Historical 10.2 vs 8.6 STRETCHED

Market-Implied Price Targets If current PE multiple persists

Implied Growth (YoY): +6.0% (market-implied from PE analysis)

1-Year Target $18.27 (+6%)

2-Year Target $19.37 (+12%)

3-Year Target $20.53 (+19%)

3-Yr Target (if PE normalizes) (PE: 10→9) PE COMPRESSION $17.28 (+0%)

Earnings growth offset by PE compression

3-Year Scenarios Using analyst projected EPS growth

Bull: (PE: 20.1, Growth: 10.0%) $45.02 (+161%)

Base: (SPY PE: 10.2, Growth: 10.0%) $22.92 (+33%)

Bear: (PE: 8.6, Growth: 10.0%) $19.29 (+12%)

📈 Valuation based on Current Earnings

Trailing PE: 10.15 | Current EPS (TTM): $1.65

Bull Case $18.84 (+9%)

Analyst growth 2.3%, PE expands to 11.2

Base Case $17.13 (-1%)

Market implied 2.3%, PE stable at 10.2

Bear Case $11.39 (-34%)

Severe decline -20.0%, PE contracts to 8.6

These are projections based on PE multiples and EPS growth scenarios, not predictions. Actual results may vary significantly.

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Last updated: August 24, 2026 6:59 AM ET
Data refreshes hourly during market hours. Next update: 7:59 AM

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Insider Activity (6 Months)

Buys

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INSIDERS SELLING

Recent Transactions

Ro Khanna SELL 2026-03-30

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Advanced NCLH Option Strategies

Professional options setups generated by AI based on today's NCLH price and gamma walls.

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