EXPE Expedia Group, Inc. Common Stock TRANSPORTATION SERVICES

Expedia Group (EXPE) Stock: Buy, Sell, or Hold?

$259.79
+6.02 (+2.37%) β–²
5d: -17.76% 30d: -4.99% 90d: -20.87%
QUANTITATIVE VERDICT
WAIT
LOW Confidence (57%)
Quality Score
49/100
Position
OVERSOLD
30-Day Fair Range
$263.22 – $293.77
Position: OVERSOLD
Forward P/E & Valuation
10.5x CHEAP
vs 11.9x historical avg
Wall Street Target
$332.71
+28.1% upside
Options IV & Volume
HIGH Vol
HIGH volume confirmation
Support / Resistance
$245.31 / $326.40
Trend: Strong Uptrend
πŸ’‘Executive Thesis & Bottom Line
Forward Earnings Fair Value & Price Prediction →
⏸️ WAIT FOR STABILIZATION: EXPE is down 17.8% over the last 5 days. While fundamentals may be solid, catching a falling knife is risky. Wait for price to stabilize before entering.
Smart Money Accumulation

Options open interest is building while the stock consolidates - a pattern consistent with institutional accumulation. View Scanner →

Signal fired Nov 5, 2026 at $277.62 · last confirmed Nov 11, 2026

Strength: 7.5/10

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Interactive Price Chart (1 Month)

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Long-Term Wealth Forecast (2031)

Based on Analyst Consensus Growth & Historical Valuation

0% (Stagnation) 50% (Hyper Growth)
EST. PRICE IN 2031
$485.54
Based on 10.6% avg growth
INTRINSIC VALUE TODAY
$301.48
13.8% Margin of Safety

How this is calculated: We use a Growth Decay Model: starting with analyst consensus growth (adjusted above) and gradually slowing it down to a long-term terminal rate (4%) by Year 5. This provides a more realistic valuation than assuming constant hyper-growth. We then apply a 11.9x Exit PE.

In-depth Analysis How we analyze

Valuation Analysis: EXPE is currently trading at $259.79, which is considered oversold relative to its 30-day fair value range of $263.22 to $293.77. From a valuation perspective, the stock is trading at a discount (Forward PE: 10.5) compared to its historical average (11.9). Remarkably, the market is currently pricing in an annual earnings decline of 4.2% over the next few years. This pessimistic expectation contrasts with the company's recent 14.9% earnings growth, suggesting potential undervaluation if the company simply maintains stability.

Technical Outlook: Technically, EXPE is in a strong uptrend. Immediate support is located at $245.31, while resistance sits at $326.40.

Market Sentiment: EXPE scores 35/100 on our bottoming-setup gauge. Note this measures entry quality, not trend direction — a low score can mean the chart is extended after a strong run (don't chase) or still falling without stabilization; better entries typically come after a pullback toward the 20-day average. Wall Street analysts see significant upside, with an average price target of $332.71 (+28.1%). Current signals suggest waiting for a better entry point before initiating new positions.

Quick Decision Summary

Current Position OVERSOLD
Historical Trading Range $263.22 - $293.77
Company Quality Score 49/100 (HOLD)
Volume Confirmation HIGH
Confidence Score 57.1%

Trading Range & Key Levels

30-Day Trading Range $263.22 - $293.77
Current vs Trading Range OVERSOLD
Support Level $245.31
Resistance Level $326.40
Current Trend Strong Uptrend
Technical data as of Nov 11, 2026

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Quantitative Signal Breakdown

  • BULLISH: Price oversold vs 30-day range
  • BEARISH: Weak technical setup (35/100)
  • BULLISH: High volume confirmation
  • BULLISH: Trading 28.1% below Wall St target ($332.71)
  • WARNING: Composite score 49/100 in the bottom quintile β€” this cohort historically lags the market

Fundamental Context

Forward P/E (Next Year Est.) 10.47
Wall Street Target $332.71 (+28.1%)
Revenue Growth (YoY) 11.9%
Earnings Growth (YoY) 14.9%
Profit Margin 13.0%
Valuation Discount vs History -4.2% cheaper
PE vs Historical 10.5 vs 11.9 CHEAP
Market-Implied Price Targets If current PE multiple persists
Implied Growth (YoY): -4.2% (market-implied from PE analysis)
1-Year Target $248.88 (-4%)
2-Year Target $238.43 (-8%)
3-Year Target $228.41 (-12%)
3-Yr Target (if PE normalizes) (PE: 10β†’12) $259.68 (0%)
3-Year Scenarios Using analyst projected EPS growth
Bull: (PE: 19.9, Growth: 17.1%) $792.42 (+205%)
Base: (SPY PE: 10.5, Growth: 17.1%) $417.64 (+61%)
Bear: (PE: 8.9, Growth: 17.1%) $355.00 (+37%)
πŸ“ˆ Valuation based on Current Earnings
RECOVERY PLAY: Stock looks expensive now (15x PE), but valuation improves significantly next year (10x PE) as earnings recover.
Trailing PE: 14.88 | Current EPS (TTM): $17.06
Bull Case $406.11 (+56%)
Analyst growth 45.5%, PE expands to 16.4
Base Case $369.19 (+42%)
Market implied 45.5%, PE stable at 14.9
Bear Case $172.56 (-34%)
Severe decline -20.0%, PE contracts to 12.6
These are projections based on PE multiples and EPS growth scenarios, not predictions. Actual results may vary significantly.
πŸ’‘ Upside Surprise Potential
If earnings stabilize (0% growth), PE could expand from 10.5 to 11.9
Stabilization Target: $295.35 (+13.7%)
PE Expansion Potential: +13.7%
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Reddit & Retail Trader Sentiment (EXPE)

Bearish 2 Retail Mentions
Reddit / WSB Comments
1
Bullish
StockTwits Volume
1 msgs
24h retail stream
Last Tracked
Nov 11, 2026
Daily AI digest
AI Retail Discussion Summary: Online travel stocks like Expedia, Booking, and Airbnb experienced significant declines on Tuesday after reports emerged that OpenAI had acquired an AI-powered travel planning platform, raising concerns about increased competition from artificial intelligence in the travel industry.
Key Retail Themes: Competition from AI Impact of AI on travel industry
Aggregated from r/wallstreetbets, r/stocks & StockTwits streams. View All Trending Reddit & WSB Stocks →
Last updated: November 12, 2026 3:50 AM ET
Data refreshes hourly during market hours. Next update: 4:50 AM
πŸ”₯ Top Stocks Breaking Out Now
Ticker Score Recommendation Change %
Insider Activity (6 Months)
0
Buys
0
Sells
0
Net
NEUTRAL

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Part A: Deep-Dive EXPE Research Pages
EXPE Technical Chart EXPE Price Prediction EXPE Intrinsic Value DCF EXPE Earnings Date Why is EXPE Moving Today? EXPE Investment Advisor EXPE Fair Price Analyzer EXPE Options Chain EXPE Options Advisor EXPE Options Analysis EXPE Competitors
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