TCOM Stock Analysis: Buy, Sell, or Hold?
TCOM - Trip.com Group Limited American Depositary Shares
$42.36
-0.44 (-1.03%)
▼
5d:
+3.37%
30d:
-11.69%
90d:
-17.46%
BUY
HIGH Confidence
Analysis Updated: Jul 13, 2026 12:00 AM ET
Earnings: Aug 26, 2026
Smart Money Accumulation
None View Scanner →
Strength: 6.2/10
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Interactive Price Chart (1 Month)
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Bottom Line:
✅ BUY SIGNAL: TCOM trading at deep discount. Market pricing in -4.9% annual earnings decline, creating value opportunity for patient investors.
✅ BUY SIGNAL: TCOM trading at deep discount. Market pricing in -4.9% annual earnings decline, creating value opportunity for patient investors.
Long-Term Wealth Forecast (2031)
Based on Analyst Consensus Growth & Historical Valuation
0% (Stagnation)
50% (Hyper Growth)
EST. PRICE IN 2031
$77.41
Based on 9.6% avg growth
INTRINSIC VALUE TODAY
$48.06
11.9% Margin of Safety
How this is calculated: We use a Growth Decay Model: starting with analyst consensus growth (adjusted above) and gradually slowing it down to a long-term terminal rate (4%) by Year 5. This provides a more realistic valuation than assuming constant hyper-growth. We then apply a 1.7x Exit PE.
In-depth Analysis How we analyze
Valuation Analysis: TCOM is currently trading at $42.36, which is considered slightly low relative to its 30-day fair value range of $41.19 to $47.15. From a valuation perspective, the stock is trading at a discount (Forward PE: 1.5) compared to its historical average (1.7). Remarkably, the market is currently pricing in an annual earnings decline of 4.9% over the next few years. This aligns with recent fundamental challenges.
Technical Outlook: Technically, TCOM is in a strong downtrend. The price is currently testing key support at $46.30. A bounce from this level would confirm strength, while a break below could signal further downside.
Market Sentiment: The stock shows a mixed technical setup (45/100), with neutral trendline and momentum signals. Wall Street analysts see significant upside, with an average price target of $60.59 (+43.0%). Combining these factors, the current setup offers a favorable risk/reward ratio for buyers.
Technical Outlook: Technically, TCOM is in a strong downtrend. The price is currently testing key support at $46.30. A bounce from this level would confirm strength, while a break below could signal further downside.
Market Sentiment: The stock shows a mixed technical setup (45/100), with neutral trendline and momentum signals. Wall Street analysts see significant upside, with an average price target of $60.59 (+43.0%). Combining these factors, the current setup offers a favorable risk/reward ratio for buyers.
Quick Decision Summary
Current Position
SLIGHTLY LOW
Historical Trading Range
$41.19 -
$47.15
Company Quality Score
58/100
(HOLD)
Volume Confirmation
HIGH
Confidence Score
79.5%
All Signals
- BULLISH: Price oversold vs 30-day range
- NEUTRAL: Mixed technical signals (45/100)
- BULLISH: High volume confirmation
- BULLISH: Trading 43.0% below Wall St target ($60.59)
Trading Range Analysis
30-Day Trading Range
$41.19 -
$47.15
Current vs Trading Range
SLIGHTLY LOW
Support & Resistance Levels
Support Level
$46.30
Resistance Level
$49.34
Current Trend
Strong Downtrend
Technical data as of
Jun 9, 2026
Fundamental Context
Forward P/E (Next Year Est.)
1.46
Wall Street Target
$60.59
(+43.0%)
Revenue Growth (YoY)
17.2%
Earnings Growth (YoY)
-39.7%
Profit Margin
48.6%
Valuation Discount vs History
-4.9% cheaper
PE vs Historical
1.5 vs 1.7
CHEAP
Market-Implied Price Targets
If current PE multiple persists
Implied Growth (YoY):
-4.9%
(market-implied from PE analysis)
1-Year Target
$40.28
(-5%)
2-Year Target
$38.31
(-10%)
3-Year Target
$36.43
(-14%)
3-Yr Target (if PE normalizes)
(PE: 1→2)
$42.33
(0%)
3-Year Scenarios
Using analyst projected EPS growth
Bull:
(PE: 21.8, Growth: 15.1%)
$961.37
(+2170%)
Base:
(SPY PE: 1.5, Growth: 15.1%)
$64.58
(+53%)
Bear:
(PE: 1.2, Growth: 15.1%)
$54.90
(+30%)
📈
Valuation based on Current Earnings
RECOVERY PLAY: Stock looks expensive now (6x PE), but valuation improves significantly next year (1x PE) as earnings recover.
Trailing PE: 6.21 | Current EPS (TTM): $6.67
Bull Case
$91.15
(+113%)
Analyst growth 100.0%, PE expands to 6.8
Base Case
$82.86
(+94%)
Market implied 100.0%, PE stable at 6.2
Bear Case
$28.17
(-34%)
Severe decline -20.0%, PE contracts to 5.3
These are projections based on PE multiples and EPS growth scenarios, not predictions. Actual results may vary significantly.
💡
Upside Surprise Potential
If earnings stabilize (0% growth), PE could expand from 1.5 to 1.7
Stabilization Target:
$49.22
(+16.2%)
PE Expansion Potential:
+16.2%
Share & Embed Analysis
Last updated: July 13, 2026 5:39 PM ET
Data refreshes hourly during market hours. Next update: 6:39 PM
Data refreshes hourly during market hours. Next update: 6:39 PM
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Technical Signals Check
Is TCOM showing a specific setup today?
Insider Activity (6 Months)
0
Buys
0
Sells
0
Net
NEUTRAL
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