TCOM
Trip.com Group Limited American Depositary Shares
Services-Business Services, NEC
Best Business Services Stocks 2026 →
Trip.com Group (TCOM) Stock: Buy, Sell, or Hold?
$43.39
-0.70 (-1.58%)
▼
5d:
+1.63%
30d:
+11.96%
90d:
-3.63%
Open in Live Scanner
70/30 Portfolio Builder
Earnings: Nov 16, 2026
4d
Protect TCOM Gains
Updated Nov 11, 12:00 AM ET
QUANTITATIVE VERDICT
WAIT
LOW Confidence (29%)
Quality Score
31/100
Position
EXTENDED
30-Day Fair Range
$38.30 – $42.26
Position: EXTENDED
Forward P/E & Valuation
1.6x
FAIR
vs 1.6x historical avg
Wall Street Target
$58.81
+33.4% upside
Options IV & Volume
HIGH Vol
HIGH volume confirmation
Support / Resistance
$38.25 / $44.90
Trend: Downtrend
Executive Thesis & Bottom Line
Forward Earnings Fair Value & Price Prediction →
📊 MIXED SIGNALS: TCOM shows conflicting indicators. Wait for confirmation before entering.
Smart Money Distribution
Options positioning is turning defensive after a sharp run-up - a pattern consistent with institutional profit-taking. View Scanner →
Signal fired Nov 3, 2026 at $41.66 · last confirmed Nov 11, 2026
Strength: 6.2/10
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Interactive Price Chart (1 Month)
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Long-Term Wealth Forecast (2031)
Based on Analyst Consensus Growth & Historical Valuation
0% (Stagnation)
50% (Hyper Growth)
EST. PRICE IN 2031
$60.93
Based on 6.7% avg growth
INTRINSIC VALUE TODAY
$37.84
Trading above historical range
How this is calculated: We use a Growth Decay Model: starting with analyst consensus growth (adjusted above) and gradually slowing it down to a long-term terminal rate (4%) by Year 5. This provides a more realistic valuation than assuming constant hyper-growth. We then apply a 1.6x Exit PE.
In-depth Analysis How we analyze
Valuation Analysis: TCOM is currently trading at $43.38, which is considered extended relative to its 30-day fair value range of $38.30 to $42.26. The stock's valuation (Forward PE: 1.6) is in line with its historical norms (1.6). Remarkably, the market is currently pricing in an annual earnings decline of 0.5% over the next few years. This aligns with recent fundamental challenges.
Technical Outlook: Technically, TCOM is in a downtrend. Immediate support is located at $38.25, while resistance sits at $44.90.
Market Sentiment: TCOM scores 5/100 on our bottoming-setup gauge. Note this measures entry quality, not trend direction — a low score can mean the chart is extended after a strong run (don't chase) or still falling without stabilization; better entries typically come after a pullback toward the 20-day average. Wall Street analysts see significant upside, with an average price target of $58.81 (+33.4%). Current signals suggest waiting for a better entry point before initiating new positions.
Technical Outlook: Technically, TCOM is in a downtrend. Immediate support is located at $38.25, while resistance sits at $44.90.
Market Sentiment: TCOM scores 5/100 on our bottoming-setup gauge. Note this measures entry quality, not trend direction — a low score can mean the chart is extended after a strong run (don't chase) or still falling without stabilization; better entries typically come after a pullback toward the 20-day average. Wall Street analysts see significant upside, with an average price target of $58.81 (+33.4%). Current signals suggest waiting for a better entry point before initiating new positions.
Quick Decision Summary
Current Position
EXTENDED
Historical Trading Range
$38.30 -
$42.26
Company Quality Score
31/100
(SELL)
Volume Confirmation
HIGH
Confidence Score
28.6%
Trading Range & Key Levels
30-Day Trading Range
$38.30 -
$42.26
Current vs Trading Range
EXTENDED
Support Level
$38.25
Resistance Level
$44.90
Current Trend
Downtrend
Technical data as of
Nov 10, 2026
Protect Your Profits
Holding TCOM? Use our AI-powered strategies to protect your downside while keeping your long-term position.
View Profit Protection PlanQuantitative Signal Breakdown
- BEARISH: Price extended above range
- BEARISH: Weak technical setup (5/100)
- BULLISH: High volume confirmation
- BULLISH: Trading 33.4% below Wall St target ($58.81)
- WARNING: Composite score 31/100 in the bottom quintile — this cohort historically lags the market
Fundamental Context
Forward P/E (Next Year Est.)
1.60
Wall Street Target
$58.81
(+33.4%)
Revenue Growth (YoY)
5.5%
Earnings Growth (YoY)
-39.7%
Profit Margin
36.9%
Valuation Discount vs History
-0.5% cheaper
PE vs Historical
1.6 vs 1.6
FAIR
Market-Implied Price Targets
If current PE multiple persists
Implied Growth (YoY):
-0.5%
(market-implied from PE analysis)
1-Year Target
$43.86
(-1%)
2-Year Target
$43.64
(-1%)
3-Year Target
$43.42
(-2%)
3-Yr Target (if PE normalizes)
(PE: 2→2)
$43.44
(-2%)
3-Year Scenarios
Using analyst projected EPS growth
Bull:
(PE: 19.9, Growth: 9.4%)
$716.04
(+1524%)
Base:
(SPY PE: 1.6, Growth: 9.4%)
$57.67
(+31%)
Bear:
(PE: 1.4, Growth: 9.4%)
$49.02
(+11%)
📈
Valuation based on Current Earnings
RECOVERY PLAY: Stock looks expensive now (9x PE), but valuation improves significantly next year (2x PE) as earnings recover.
Trailing PE: 8.88 | Current EPS (TTM): $4.96
Bull Case
$96.89
(+120%)
Analyst growth 100.0%, PE expands to 9.8
Base Case
$88.08
(+100%)
Market implied 100.0%, PE stable at 8.9
Bear Case
$29.95
(-32%)
Severe decline -20.0%, PE contracts to 7.6
These are projections based on PE multiples and EPS growth scenarios, not predictions. Actual results may vary significantly.
💡
Upside Surprise Potential
If earnings stabilize (0% growth), PE could expand from 1.6 to 1.6
Stabilization Target:
$44.09
(+0.0%)
PE Expansion Potential:
+0.0%
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bloggers & journalists: you are free to use our charts with attribution.Reddit & Retail Trader Sentiment (TCOM)
Bearish
1 Retail Mentions
Reddit / WSB Comments
1
Bearish
Last Tracked
Jun 27, 2026
Daily AI digest
AI Retail Discussion Summary:
Reddit & WallStreetBets discussions on TCOM are bearish (sentiment score +0.00) across 1 tracked comments.
Aggregated from r/wallstreetbets, r/stocks & StockTwits streams.
View All Trending Reddit & WSB Stocks →
Last updated: November 11, 2026 1:25 PM ET
Data refreshes hourly during market hours. Next update: 2:25 PM
Data refreshes hourly during market hours. Next update: 2:25 PM
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Technical Signals Check
Is TCOM showing a specific setup today?
Insider Activity (6 Months)
0
Buys
0
Sells
0
Net
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