Trip.com Group (TCOM) Stock: Buy, Sell, or Hold?
TCOM - Trip.com Group Limited American Depositary Shares
$38.76
-0.34 (-0.87%)
▼
5d:
-3.2%
30d:
-11.59%
90d:
-5.46%
WAIT
LOW Confidence
Analysis Updated: Oct 1, 2026 12:00 AM ET
Earnings: Nov 16, 2026
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Interactive Price Chart (1 Month)
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Bottom Line:
📊 MIXED SIGNALS: TCOM shows conflicting indicators. Wait for confirmation before entering.
📊 MIXED SIGNALS: TCOM shows conflicting indicators. Wait for confirmation before entering.
Long-Term Wealth Forecast (2031)
Based on Analyst Consensus Growth & Historical Valuation
0% (Stagnation)
50% (Hyper Growth)
EST. PRICE IN 2031
$64.37
Based on 6.6% avg growth
INTRINSIC VALUE TODAY
$39.97
3.0% Margin of Safety
How this is calculated: We use a Growth Decay Model: starting with analyst consensus growth (adjusted above) and gradually slowing it down to a long-term terminal rate (4%) by Year 5. This provides a more realistic valuation than assuming constant hyper-growth. We then apply a 1.7x Exit PE.
In-depth Analysis How we analyze
Valuation Analysis: TCOM is currently trading at $38.76, which is considered oversold relative to its 30-day fair value range of $38.90 to $43.74. From a valuation perspective, the stock is trading at a discount (Forward PE: 1.4) compared to its historical average (1.7). Remarkably, the market is currently pricing in an annual earnings decline of 5.1% over the next few years. This aligns with recent fundamental challenges.
Technical Outlook: Technically, TCOM is in a strong downtrend. The price is currently testing key support at $38.43. A bounce from this level would confirm strength, while a break below could signal further downside.
Market Sentiment: The stock scores a mixed 53/100 on our bottoming-setup gauge, with only partial signs of a stabilized entry point. Wall Street analysts see significant upside, with an average price target of $58.49 (+50.9%). Current signals suggest waiting for a better entry point before initiating new positions.
Technical Outlook: Technically, TCOM is in a strong downtrend. The price is currently testing key support at $38.43. A bounce from this level would confirm strength, while a break below could signal further downside.
Market Sentiment: The stock scores a mixed 53/100 on our bottoming-setup gauge, with only partial signs of a stabilized entry point. Wall Street analysts see significant upside, with an average price target of $58.49 (+50.9%). Current signals suggest waiting for a better entry point before initiating new positions.
Quick Decision Summary
Current Position
OVERSOLD
Historical Trading Range
$38.90 -
$43.74
Company Quality Score
52/100
(HOLD)
Volume Confirmation
HIGH
Confidence Score
79.5%
Protect Your Profits
Holding TCOM? Use our AI-powered strategies to protect your downside while keeping your long-term position.
View Profit Protection PlanAll Signals
- BULLISH: Price oversold vs 30-day range
- NEUTRAL: Mixed technical signals (53/100)
- BULLISH: High volume confirmation
- BULLISH: Trading 50.9% below Wall St target ($58.49)
- WARNING: Composite score 52/100 in the bottom quintile — this cohort historically lags the market
Trading Range Analysis
30-Day Trading Range
$38.90 -
$43.74
Current vs Trading Range
OVERSOLD
Support & Resistance Levels
Support Level
$38.43
Resistance Level
$41.49
Current Trend
Strong Downtrend
Technical data as of
Oct 1, 2026
Fundamental Context
Forward P/E (Next Year Est.)
1.41
Wall Street Target
$58.49
(+50.9%)
Revenue Growth (YoY)
5.5%
Earnings Growth (YoY)
-39.7%
Profit Margin
36.9%
Valuation Discount vs History
-5.1% cheaper
PE vs Historical
1.4 vs 1.7
CHEAP
Market-Implied Price Targets
If current PE multiple persists
Implied Growth (YoY):
-5.1%
(market-implied from PE analysis)
1-Year Target
$36.78
(-5%)
2-Year Target
$34.91
(-10%)
3-Year Target
$33.13
(-15%)
3-Yr Target (if PE normalizes)
(PE: 1→2)
$39.99
(+3%)
3-Year Scenarios
Using analyst projected EPS growth
Bull:
(PE: 20.4, Growth: 9.2%)
$731.88
(+1788%)
Base:
(SPY PE: 1.4, Growth: 9.2%)
$50.52
(+30%)
Bear:
(PE: 1.2, Growth: 9.2%)
$42.94
(+11%)
📈
Valuation based on Current Earnings
RECOVERY PLAY: Stock looks expensive now (7x PE), but valuation improves significantly next year (1x PE) as earnings recover.
Trailing PE: 7.49 | Current EPS (TTM): $5.22
Bull Case
$86.02
(+122%)
Analyst growth 100.0%, PE expands to 8.2
Base Case
$78.20
(+102%)
Market implied 100.0%, PE stable at 7.5
Bear Case
$26.59
(-31%)
Severe decline -20.0%, PE contracts to 6.4
These are projections based on PE multiples and EPS growth scenarios, not predictions. Actual results may vary significantly.
💡
Upside Surprise Potential
If earnings stabilize (0% growth), PE could expand from 1.4 to 1.7
Stabilization Target:
$46.79
(+20.7%)
PE Expansion Potential:
+20.7%
Share & Embed Analysis
Last updated: October 02, 2026 6:42 AM ET
Data refreshes hourly during market hours. Next update: 7:42 AM
Data refreshes hourly during market hours. Next update: 7:42 AM
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Technical Signals Check
Is TCOM showing a specific setup today?
Insider Activity (6 Months)
0
Buys
0
Sells
0
Net
NEUTRAL
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Advanced TCOM Option Strategies
Professional options setups generated by AI based on today's TCOM price and gamma walls.