NGVT Stock Analysis: Buy, Sell, or Hold?

NGVT - Ingevity Corporation

CHEMICALS & ALLIED PRODUCTS
$73.41
0.30 (0.41%) ▲
5d: -1.28%
30d: +1.27%
90d: -3.31%
BUY
HIGH Confidence
Analysis Updated: Jul 31, 2026 12:00 AM ET
Earnings: Jul 29, 2026 0d

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Interactive Price Chart (1 Month)

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💡
Bottom Line:
✅ BUY SIGNAL: NGVT shows strong fundamentals and good volume confirmation. Solid entry point despite fair pricing.
See Forward Earnings Fair Value & Price Prediction →

Long-Term Wealth Forecast (2031)

Based on Analyst Consensus Growth & Historical Valuation

0% (Stagnation) 50% (Hyper Growth)
EST. PRICE IN 2031
$111.98
Based on 8.4% avg growth
INTRINSIC VALUE TODAY
$69.53
Trading above historical range

How this is calculated: We use a Growth Decay Model: starting with analyst consensus growth (adjusted above) and gradually slowing it down to a long-term terminal rate (4%) by Year 5. This provides a more realistic valuation than assuming constant hyper-growth. We then apply a 12.6x Exit PE.

In-depth Analysis How we analyze

Valuation Analysis: NGVT is currently trading at $73.41, which is considered fair relative to its 30-day fair value range of $71.98 to $75.15. The stock's valuation (Forward PE: 12.3) is in line with its historical norms (12.6). Remarkably, the market is currently pricing in an annual earnings decline of 0.9% over the next few years. This pessimistic expectation contrasts with the company's recent 199.0% earnings growth, suggesting potential undervaluation if the company simply maintains stability.

Technical Outlook: Technically, NGVT is in a uptrend. Immediate support is located at $67.81, while resistance sits at $76.40.

Market Sentiment: The stock shows a mixed technical setup (40/100), with neutral trendline and momentum signals. In the options market, Implied Volatility is low (0th percentile), suggesting options premiums are relatively cheap. This makes it an attractive time for long options strategies if you have a directional bias. Wall Street analysts see significant upside, with an average price target of $89.00 (+21.7%). Combining these factors, the current setup offers a favorable risk/reward ratio for buyers.

Quick Decision Summary

Current Position FAIR
Historical Trading Range $71.98 - $75.15
Company Quality Score 49/100 (HOLD)
Volume Confirmation HIGH
Confidence Score 77.7%

All Signals

  • NEUTRAL: Price in fair range
  • BULLISH: Options cheap (IV 0th percentile)
  • NEUTRAL: Mixed technical signals (40/100)
  • BULLISH: High volume confirmation
  • BULLISH: Trading 21.7% below Wall St target ($89.00)

Trading Range Analysis

30-Day Trading Range $71.98 - $75.15
Current vs Trading Range FAIR
Expected Move (7 Days) ±$3.71 (5.1%)

Support & Resistance Levels

Support Level $67.81
Resistance Level $76.40
Current Trend Uptrend
Technical data as of Aug 3, 2026

Fundamental Context

Forward P/E (Next Year Est.) 12.26
Wall Street Target $89.00 (+21.7%)
Revenue Growth (YoY) 4.1%
Earnings Growth (YoY) 199.0%
Profit Margin 4.7%
Valuation Discount vs History -0.9% cheaper
PE vs Historical 12.3 vs 12.6 FAIR
Market-Implied Price Targets If current PE multiple persists
Implied Growth (YoY): -0.9% (market-implied from PE analysis)
1-Year Target $72.45 (-1%)
2-Year Target $71.80 (-2%)
3-Year Target $71.15 (-3%)
3-Yr Target (if PE normalizes) (PE: 12→13) $73.13 (0%)
3-Year Scenarios Using analyst projected EPS growth
Bull: (PE: 20.7, Growth: 12.7%) $177.08 (+142%)
Base: (SPY PE: 12.3, Growth: 12.7%) $104.73 (+43%)
Bear: (PE: 10.4, Growth: 12.7%) $89.02 (+22%)
💡 Upside Surprise Potential
If earnings stabilize (0% growth), PE could expand from 12.3 to 12.6
Stabilization Target: $75.14 (+2.8%)
PE Expansion Potential: +2.8%
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Last updated: August 03, 2026 4:42 PM ET
Data refreshes hourly during market hours. Next update: 5:42 PM
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Ticker Score Recommendation Change %
Insider Activity (6 Months)
0
Buys
0
Sells
0
Net
NEUTRAL

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