SHW The Sherwin-Williams Company RETAIL-BUILDING MATERIALS, HARDWARE, GARDEN SUPPLY

The Sherwin-Williams (SHW) Stock: Buy, Sell, or Hold?

$355.34
-2.59 (-0.72%) ▼
5d: +4.25% 30d: +10.97% 90d: -1.35%
QUANTITATIVE VERDICT
WAIT
LOW Confidence (19%)
Quality Score
38/100
Position
EXTENDED
30-Day Fair Range
$320.89 – $347.02
Position: EXTENDED
Forward P/E & Valuation
26.9x FAIR
vs 25.1x historical avg
Wall Street Target
$374.25
+5.3% upside
Options IV & Volume
HIGH Vol
HIGH volume confirmation
Support / Resistance
$318.63 / $371.22
Trend: Uptrend
💡Executive Thesis & Bottom Line
Forward Earnings Fair Value & Price Prediction →
📊 MIXED SIGNALS: SHW shows conflicting indicators. Wait for confirmation before entering.

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Interactive Price Chart (1 Month)

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Long-Term Wealth Forecast (2031)

Based on Analyst Consensus Growth & Historical Valuation

0% (Stagnation) 50% (Hyper Growth)
EST. PRICE IN 2031
$460.68
Based on 6.9% avg growth
INTRINSIC VALUE TODAY
$286.04
Trading above historical range

How this is calculated: We use a Growth Decay Model: starting with analyst consensus growth (adjusted above) and gradually slowing it down to a long-term terminal rate (4%) by Year 5. This provides a more realistic valuation than assuming constant hyper-growth. We then apply a 25.0x Exit PE.

View Full DCF Model

In-depth Analysis How we analyze

Valuation Analysis: SHW is currently trading at $355.34, which is considered extended relative to its 30-day fair value range of $320.89 to $347.02. The stock's valuation (Forward PE: 26.9) is in line with its historical norms (25.1). At these levels, the market is pricing in 2.3% annual earnings growth. This is a high bar to clear, indicating the stock may be priced for perfection.

Technical Outlook: Technically, SHW is in a uptrend. Immediate support is located at $318.63, while resistance sits at $371.22.

Market Sentiment: SHW scores 18/100 on our bottoming-setup gauge. Note this measures entry quality, not trend direction — a low score can mean the chart is extended after a strong run (don't chase) or still falling without stabilization; better entries typically come after a pullback toward the 20-day average. Current signals suggest waiting for a better entry point before initiating new positions.

Quick Decision Summary

Current Position EXTENDED
Historical Trading Range $320.89 - $347.02
Company Quality Score 38/100 (SELL)
Volume Confirmation HIGH
Confidence Score 19.0%

Trading Range & Key Levels

30-Day Trading Range $320.89 - $347.02
Current vs Trading Range EXTENDED
Support Level $318.63
Resistance Level $371.22
Current Trend Uptrend
Technical data as of Nov 10, 2026

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Quantitative Signal Breakdown

  • BEARISH: Price extended above range
  • BEARISH: Weak technical setup (18/100)
  • BULLISH: High volume confirmation
  • NEUTRAL: Near Wall St target ($374.25)
  • BEARISH: Market expects 2.3% growth - appears too optimistic based on history
  • WARNING: Composite score 38/100 in the bottom quintile — this cohort historically lags the market

Fundamental Context

Forward P/E (Next Year Est.) 26.90
Wall Street Target $374.25 (+5.3%)
Revenue Growth (YoY) 7.9%
Earnings Growth (YoY) 0.9%
Profit Margin 10.7%
Valuation Premium vs History +2.3% premium
PE vs Historical 26.9 vs 25.1 FAIR
Market-Implied Price Targets If current PE multiple persists
Implied Growth (YoY): +2.3% (market-implied from PE analysis)
1-Year Target $363.51 (+2%)
2-Year Target $371.87 (+5%)
3-Year Target $380.43 (+7%)
3-Yr Target (if PE normalizes) (PE: 27→25) PE COMPRESSION $355.03 (0%)
Earnings growth offset by PE compression
3-Year Scenarios Using analyst projected EPS growth
Bull: (PE: 26.9, Growth: 9.8%) $470.63 (+32%)
Base: (SPY PE: 19.9, Growth: 9.8%) $347.52 (-2%)
Bear: (PE: 16.9, Growth: 9.8%) $295.39 (-17%)
📈 Valuation based on Current Earnings
RECOVERY PLAY: Stock looks expensive now (33x PE), but valuation improves significantly next year (27x PE) as earnings recover.
Trailing PE: 32.93 | Current EPS (TTM): $10.87
Bull Case $478.55 (+35%)
Analyst growth 21.5%, PE expands to 36.2
Base Case $435.05 (+22%)
Market implied 21.5%, PE stable at 32.9
Bear Case $243.39 (-32%)
Severe decline -20.0%, PE contracts to 28.0
These are projections based on PE multiples and EPS growth scenarios, not predictions. Actual results may vary significantly.
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Reddit & Retail Trader Sentiment (SHW)

Bullish 2 Retail Mentions
Reddit / WSB Comments
1
Bullish
StockTwits Volume
1 msgs
24h retail stream
Last Tracked
Nov 10, 2026
Daily AI digest
AI Retail Discussion Summary: Bullish sentiment on StockTwits regarding the housing sector rally, with $SHW mentioned among other stocks. No recent news articles available.
Key Retail Themes: housing sector rally
Aggregated from r/wallstreetbets, r/stocks & StockTwits streams. View All Trending Reddit & WSB Stocks →
Last updated: November 11, 2026 6:20 AM ET
Data refreshes hourly during market hours. Next update: 7:20 AM
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Technical Signals Check

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Insider Activity (6 Months)
0
Buys
0
Sells
0
Net
NEUTRAL

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