NOA Stock Analysis: Buy, Sell, or Hold?
NOA - North American Construction Group Ltd.
$13.34
-0.07 (-0.52%)
âŧ
5d:
-2.27%
30d:
-3.75%
90d:
-7.81%
WAIT
LOW Confidence
Analysis Updated: Aug 25, 2026 12:00 AM ET
Earnings: Aug 12, 2026
0d
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Interactive Price Chart (1 Month)
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Bottom Line:
âšī¸ NEUTRAL: NOA is fairly priced but lacks strong directional signals. At 4.1% expected growth, valuation appears fair. Wait for clearer setup or better entry on dips.
âšī¸ NEUTRAL: NOA is fairly priced but lacks strong directional signals. At 4.1% expected growth, valuation appears fair. Wait for clearer setup or better entry on dips.
Long-Term Wealth Forecast (2031)
Based on Analyst Consensus Growth & Historical Valuation
0% (Stagnation)
50% (Hyper Growth)
EST. PRICE IN 2031
$23.00
Based on 14.5% avg growth
INTRINSIC VALUE TODAY
$14.28
6.6% Margin of Safety
How this is calculated: We use a Growth Decay Model: starting with analyst consensus growth (adjusted above) and gradually slowing it down to a long-term terminal rate (4%) by Year 5. This provides a more realistic valuation than assuming constant hyper-growth. We then apply a 4.8x Exit PE.
In-depth Analysis How we analyze
Valuation Analysis: NOA is currently trading at $13.34, which is considered slightly low relative to its 30-day fair value range of $13.34 to $14.45. From a valuation perspective, the stock is trading at a premium (Forward PE: 5.4) compared to its historical average (4.8). At these levels, the market is pricing in 4.1% annual earnings growth. This is a high bar to clear, indicating the stock may be priced for perfection.
Technical Outlook: Technically, NOA is in a downtrend. The price is currently testing key support at $13.31. A bounce from this level would confirm strength, while a break below could signal further downside.
Market Sentiment: NOA scores 25/100 on our bottoming-setup gauge. Note this measures entry quality, not trend direction — a low score can mean the chart is extended after a strong run (don't chase) or still falling without stabilization; better entries typically come after a pullback toward the 20-day average. Wall Street analysts see significant upside, with an average price target of $27.04 (+102.7%). Current signals suggest waiting for a better entry point before initiating new positions.
Technical Outlook: Technically, NOA is in a downtrend. The price is currently testing key support at $13.31. A bounce from this level would confirm strength, while a break below could signal further downside.
Market Sentiment: NOA scores 25/100 on our bottoming-setup gauge. Note this measures entry quality, not trend direction — a low score can mean the chart is extended after a strong run (don't chase) or still falling without stabilization; better entries typically come after a pullback toward the 20-day average. Wall Street analysts see significant upside, with an average price target of $27.04 (+102.7%). Current signals suggest waiting for a better entry point before initiating new positions.
Quick Decision Summary
Current Position
SLIGHTLY LOW
Historical Trading Range
$13.34 -
$14.45
Company Quality Score
43/100
(HOLD)
Volume Confirmation
HIGH
Confidence Score
52.4%
All Signals
- BULLISH: Price oversold vs 30-day range
- BEARISH: Weak technical setup (25/100)
- BULLISH: High volume confirmation
- BULLISH: Trading 102.7% below Wall St target ($27.04)
- BEARISH: Market expects 4.1% growth - appears too optimistic based on history
- WARNING: Composite score 42/100 in the bottom quintile â this cohort historically lags the market
Trading Range Analysis
30-Day Trading Range
$13.34 -
$14.45
Current vs Trading Range
SLIGHTLY LOW
Support & Resistance Levels
Support Level
$13.31
Resistance Level
$16.19
Current Trend
Downtrend
Technical data as of
Aug 25, 2026
Fundamental Context
Forward P/E (Next Year Est.)
5.42
Wall Street Target
$27.04
(+102.7%)
Revenue Growth (YoY)
25.1%
Earnings Growth (YoY)
1.9%
Profit Margin
2.4%
Valuation Premium vs History
+4.1% premium
PE vs Historical
5.4 vs 4.8
FAIR
Market-Implied Price Targets
If current PE multiple persists
Implied Growth (YoY):
+4.1%
(market-implied from PE analysis)
1-Year Target
$13.89
(+4%)
2-Year Target
$14.46
(+8%)
3-Year Target
$15.05
(+13%)
3-Yr Target (if PE normalizes)
(PE: 5â5)
PE COMPRESSION
$13.32
(0%)
Earnings growth offset by PE compression
3-Year Scenarios
Using analyst projected EPS growth
Bull:
(PE: 20.1, Growth: 35.2%)
$121.96
(+814%)
Base:
(SPY PE: 5.4, Growth: 35.2%)
$32.98
(+147%)
Bear:
(PE: 4.6, Growth: 35.2%)
$28.03
(+110%)
đ
Valuation based on Current Earnings
RECOVERY PLAY: Stock looks expensive now (17x PE), but valuation improves significantly next year (5x PE) as earnings recover.
Trailing PE: 17.19 | Current EPS (TTM): $0.78
Bull Case
$29.50
(+121%)
Analyst growth 100.0%, PE expands to 18.9
Base Case
$26.82
(+101%)
Market implied 100.0%, PE stable at 17.2
Bear Case
$9.12
(-32%)
Severe decline -20.0%, PE contracts to 14.6
These are projections based on PE multiples and EPS growth scenarios, not predictions. Actual results may vary significantly.
Share & Embed Analysis
Last updated: August 25, 2026 11:48 PM ET
Data refreshes hourly during market hours. Next update: 12:48 AM
Data refreshes hourly during market hours. Next update: 12:48 AM
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Technical Signals Check
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Insider Activity (6 Months)
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NEUTRAL
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