NSSC Stock Analysis: Buy, Sell, or Hold?
NSSC - Napco Security Technologies, Inc
$38.22
0.72 (1.92%)
▲
5d:
+1.73%
30d:
+4.17%
90d:
-10.43%
BUY
MODERATE Confidence
Analysis Updated: Jun 22, 2026 12:00 AM ET
Earnings: Aug 24, 2026
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Interactive Price Chart (1 Month)
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Bottom Line:
💡 BUY OPPORTUNITY: NSSC shows positive signals but monitor for confirmation. Market pricing in 5.2% decline. Moderate conviction.
💡 BUY OPPORTUNITY: NSSC shows positive signals but monitor for confirmation. Market pricing in 5.2% decline. Moderate conviction.
Long-Term Wealth Forecast (2031)
Based on Analyst Consensus Growth & Historical Valuation
0% (Stagnation)
50% (Hyper Growth)
EST. PRICE IN 2031
$55.07
Based on 6.4% avg growth
INTRINSIC VALUE TODAY
$34.19
Trading above historical range
How this is calculated: We use a Growth Decay Model: starting with analyst consensus growth (adjusted above) and gradually slowing it down to a long-term terminal rate (4%) by Year 5. This provides a more realistic valuation than assuming constant hyper-growth. We then apply a 25.0x Exit PE.
In-depth Analysis How we analyze
Valuation Analysis: NSSC is currently trading at $38.22, which is considered extended relative to its 30-day fair value range of $35.56 to $37.36. From a valuation perspective, the stock is trading at a discount (Forward PE: 23.1) compared to its historical average (27.2). Remarkably, the market is currently pricing in an annual earnings decline of 5.2% over the next few years. This pessimistic expectation contrasts with the company's recent 21.4% earnings growth, suggesting potential undervaluation if the company simply maintains stability.
Technical Outlook: Technically, NSSC is in a uptrend. The price is approaching resistance at $38.43. A breakout above this level would be a bullish signal, while rejection here could lead to consolidation.
Market Sentiment: NSSC has a strong technical setup (60/100), with favorable trendlines, momentum, and price action for short-term traders. Wall Street analysts see significant upside, with an average price target of $50.33 (+34.2%). Combining these factors, the current setup offers a favorable risk/reward ratio for buyers.
Technical Outlook: Technically, NSSC is in a uptrend. The price is approaching resistance at $38.43. A breakout above this level would be a bullish signal, while rejection here could lead to consolidation.
Market Sentiment: NSSC has a strong technical setup (60/100), with favorable trendlines, momentum, and price action for short-term traders. Wall Street analysts see significant upside, with an average price target of $50.33 (+34.2%). Combining these factors, the current setup offers a favorable risk/reward ratio for buyers.
Quick Decision Summary
Current Position
EXTENDED
Historical Trading Range
$35.56 -
$37.36
Company Quality Score
58/100
(HOLD)
Volume Confirmation
HIGH
Confidence Score
61.9%
All Signals
- BEARISH: Price extended above range
- BULLISH: Strong technical setup (60/100)
- BULLISH: High volume confirmation
- BULLISH: Trading 34.2% below Wall St target ($50.33)
Trading Range Analysis
30-Day Trading Range
$35.56 -
$37.36
Current vs Trading Range
EXTENDED
Support & Resistance Levels
Support Level
$34.32
Resistance Level
$38.43
Current Trend
Uptrend
Technical data as of
Jun 23, 2026
Fundamental Context
Forward P/E (Next Year Est.)
23.15
Wall Street Target
$50.33
(+34.2%)
Revenue Growth (YoY)
7.6%
Earnings Growth (YoY)
21.4%
Profit Margin
18.7%
Valuation Discount vs History
-5.2% cheaper
PE vs Historical
23.2 vs 27.2
CHEAP
Market-Implied Price Targets
If current PE multiple persists
Implied Growth (YoY):
-5.2%
(market-implied from PE analysis)
1-Year Target
$35.55
(-5%)
2-Year Target
$33.70
(-10%)
3-Year Target
$31.95
(-15%)
3-Yr Target (if PE normalizes)
(PE: 23→27)
$37.54
(+0%)
3-Year Scenarios
Using analyst projected EPS growth
Bull:
(PE: 23.1, Growth: 8.7%)
$48.20
(+29%)
Base:
(SPY PE: 21.8, Growth: 8.7%)
$45.35
(+21%)
Bear:
(PE: 18.5, Growth: 8.7%)
$38.55
(+3%)
📈
Valuation based on Current Earnings
RECOVERY PLAY: Stock looks expensive now (36x PE), but valuation improves significantly next year (23x PE) as earnings recover.
Trailing PE: 36.30 | Current EPS (TTM): $1.03
Bull Case
$64.69
(+73%)
Analyst growth 57.3%, PE expands to 39.9
Base Case
$58.81
(+57%)
Market implied 57.3%, PE stable at 36.3
Bear Case
$25.43
(-32%)
Severe decline -20.0%, PE contracts to 30.9
These are projections based on PE multiples and EPS growth scenarios, not predictions. Actual results may vary significantly.
💡
Upside Surprise Potential
If earnings stabilize (0% growth), PE could expand from 23.1 to 27.2
Stabilization Target:
$44.06
(+17.5%)
PE Expansion Potential:
+17.5%
Share & Embed Analysis
Last updated: June 23, 2026 1:31 PM ET
Data refreshes hourly during market hours. Next update: 2:31 PM
Data refreshes hourly during market hours. Next update: 2:31 PM
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Technical Signals Check
Is NSSC showing a specific setup today?
Insider Activity (6 Months)
0
Buys
2
Sells
Net
INSIDERS SELLING
Recent Transactions
Richard Soloway
SELL
129682 shares
2026-03-02
Richard Soloway
SELL
150000 shares
2026-02-05
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