NVS Stock Analysis: Buy, Sell, or Hold?
NVS - Novartis AG
$158.86
2.62 (1.68%)
▲
5d:
+5.29%
30d:
+1.74%
90d:
+4.68%
WAIT
LOW Confidence
Analysis Updated: Aug 21, 2026 12:00 AM ET
Earnings: Oct 27, 2026
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Interactive Price Chart (1 Month)
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Bottom Line:
📊 MIXED SIGNALS: NVS shows conflicting indicators. Wait for confirmation before entering.
📊 MIXED SIGNALS: NVS shows conflicting indicators. Wait for confirmation before entering.
Long-Term Wealth Forecast (2031)
Based on Analyst Consensus Growth & Historical Valuation
0% (Stagnation)
50% (Hyper Growth)
EST. PRICE IN 2031
$219.98
Based on 7.7% avg growth
INTRINSIC VALUE TODAY
$136.59
Trading above historical range
How this is calculated: We use a Growth Decay Model: starting with analyst consensus growth (adjusted above) and gradually slowing it down to a long-term terminal rate (4%) by Year 5. This provides a more realistic valuation than assuming constant hyper-growth. We then apply a 15.5x Exit PE.
In-depth Analysis How we analyze
Valuation Analysis: NVS is currently trading at $158.86, which is considered extended relative to its 30-day fair value range of $151.83 to $157.39. The stock's valuation (Forward PE: 16.2) is in line with its historical norms (15.5). At these levels, the market is pricing in 1.5% annual earnings growth.
Technical Outlook: Technically, NVS is in a uptrend. The price is approaching resistance at $160.81. A breakout above this level would be a bullish signal, while rejection here could lead to consolidation.
Market Sentiment: NVS scores 60/100 on our bottoming-setup gauge — the chart has corrected and is stabilizing (RSI reset, momentum turning up), historically a favorable entry zone. Current signals suggest waiting for a better entry point before initiating new positions.
Technical Outlook: Technically, NVS is in a uptrend. The price is approaching resistance at $160.81. A breakout above this level would be a bullish signal, while rejection here could lead to consolidation.
Market Sentiment: NVS scores 60/100 on our bottoming-setup gauge — the chart has corrected and is stabilizing (RSI reset, momentum turning up), historically a favorable entry zone. Current signals suggest waiting for a better entry point before initiating new positions.
Quick Decision Summary
Current Position
EXTENDED
Historical Trading Range
$151.83 -
$157.39
Company Quality Score
50/100
(HOLD)
Volume Confirmation
HIGH
Confidence Score
60.5%
All Signals
- BEARISH: Price extended above range
- BULLISH: Strong technical setup (60/100)
- BULLISH: High volume confirmation
- NEUTRAL: Near Wall St target ($157.15)
- BULLISH: Expecting earnings turnaround to 1.5% growth with 0.8% revenue growth
- WARNING: Composite score 50/100 in the bottom quintile — this cohort historically lags the market
Trading Range Analysis
30-Day Trading Range
$151.83 -
$157.39
Current vs Trading Range
EXTENDED
Support & Resistance Levels
Support Level
$149.09
Resistance Level
$160.81
Current Trend
Uptrend
Technical data as of
Aug 21, 2026
Fundamental Context
Forward P/E (Next Year Est.)
16.20
Wall Street Target
$157.15
(-1.1%)
Revenue Growth (YoY)
0.8%
Earnings Growth (YoY)
-17.0%
Profit Margin
22.5%
Valuation Premium vs History
+1.5% premium
PE vs Historical
16.2 vs 15.5
FAIR
Market-Implied Price Targets
If current PE multiple persists
Implied Growth (YoY):
+1.5%
(market-implied from PE analysis)
1-Year Target
$161.24
(+2%)
2-Year Target
$163.66
(+3%)
3-Year Target
$166.12
(+5%)
3-Yr Target (if PE normalizes)
(PE: 16→16)
PE COMPRESSION
$158.98
(+0%)
Earnings growth offset by PE compression
3-Year Scenarios
Using analyst projected EPS growth
Bull:
(PE: 20.1, Growth: 11.4%)
$272.34
(+71%)
Base:
(SPY PE: 16.2, Growth: 11.4%)
$219.76
(+38%)
Bear:
(PE: 13.8, Growth: 11.4%)
$186.80
(+18%)
📈
Valuation based on Current Earnings
RECOVERY PLAY: Stock looks expensive now (24x PE), but valuation improves significantly next year (16x PE) as earnings recover.
Trailing PE: 23.60 | Current EPS (TTM): $6.62
Bull Case
$254.65
(+60%)
Analyst growth 48.2%, PE expands to 26.0
Base Case
$231.50
(+46%)
Market implied 48.2%, PE stable at 23.6
Bear Case
$106.24
(-33%)
Severe decline -20.0%, PE contracts to 20.1
These are projections based on PE multiples and EPS growth scenarios, not predictions. Actual results may vary significantly.
Share & Embed Analysis
Last updated: August 23, 2026 1:09 PM ET
Data refreshes hourly during market hours. Next update: 2:09 PM
Data refreshes hourly during market hours. Next update: 2:09 PM
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Technical Signals Check
Is NVS showing a specific setup today?
Insider Activity (6 Months)
0
Buys
0
Sells
0
Net
NEUTRAL
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