OBDC Stock Analysis: Buy, Sell, or Hold?
OBDC - Blue Owl Capital Corporation
$10.86
-0.10 (-0.91%)
▼
5d:
-0.55%
30d:
-2.34%
90d:
-0.09%
BUY
HIGH Confidence
Analysis Updated: Jul 13, 2026 12:00 AM ET
Earnings: Aug 05, 2026
22d
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Interactive Price Chart (1 Month)
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Bottom Line:
✅ BUY SIGNAL: OBDC shows strong fundamentals and good volume confirmation. Solid entry point despite fair pricing.
✅ BUY SIGNAL: OBDC shows strong fundamentals and good volume confirmation. Solid entry point despite fair pricing.
Long-Term Wealth Forecast (2031)
Based on Analyst Consensus Growth & Historical Valuation
0% (Stagnation)
50% (Hyper Growth)
EST. PRICE IN 2031
$13.33
Based on 3.3% avg growth
INTRINSIC VALUE TODAY
$8.27
Trading above historical range
How this is calculated: We use a Growth Decay Model: starting with analyst consensus growth (adjusted above) and gradually slowing it down to a long-term terminal rate (4%) by Year 5. This provides a more realistic valuation than assuming constant hyper-growth. We then apply a 8.6x Exit PE.
In-depth Analysis How we analyze
Valuation Analysis: OBDC is currently trading at $10.86, which is considered fair relative to its 30-day fair value range of $10.77 to $11.10. The stock's valuation (Forward PE: 8.2) is in line with its historical norms (8.6). Remarkably, the market is currently pricing in an annual earnings decline of 1.3% over the next few years. This aligns with recent fundamental challenges.
Technical Outlook: Technically, OBDC is in a downtrend. The price is currently testing key support at $10.89. A bounce from this level would confirm strength, while a break below could signal further downside.
Market Sentiment: OBDC has a strong technical setup (60/100), with favorable trendlines, momentum, and price action for short-term traders. Wall Street analysts see significant upside, with an average price target of $13.31 (+22.6%). Combining these factors, the current setup offers a favorable risk/reward ratio for buyers.
Technical Outlook: Technically, OBDC is in a downtrend. The price is currently testing key support at $10.89. A bounce from this level would confirm strength, while a break below could signal further downside.
Market Sentiment: OBDC has a strong technical setup (60/100), with favorable trendlines, momentum, and price action for short-term traders. Wall Street analysts see significant upside, with an average price target of $13.31 (+22.6%). Combining these factors, the current setup offers a favorable risk/reward ratio for buyers.
Quick Decision Summary
Current Position
FAIR
Historical Trading Range
$10.77 -
$11.10
Company Quality Score
60/100
(BUY)
Volume Confirmation
HIGH
Confidence Score
83.3%
All Signals
- NEUTRAL: Price in fair range
- BULLISH: Strong technical setup (60/100)
- BULLISH: High volume confirmation
- BULLISH: Trading 22.6% below Wall St target ($13.31)
Trading Range Analysis
30-Day Trading Range
$10.77 -
$11.10
Current vs Trading Range
FAIR
Support & Resistance Levels
Support Level
$10.89
Resistance Level
$11.52
Current Trend
Downtrend
Technical data as of
Jun 9, 2026
Fundamental Context
Forward P/E (Next Year Est.)
8.24
Wall Street Target
$13.31
(+22.6%)
Revenue Growth (YoY)
-14.6%
Earnings Growth (YoY)
-40.9%
Profit Margin
20.2%
Valuation Discount vs History
-1.3% cheaper
PE vs Historical
8.2 vs 8.6
FAIR
Market-Implied Price Targets
If current PE multiple persists
Implied Growth (YoY):
-1.3%
(market-implied from PE analysis)
1-Year Target
$10.72
(-1%)
2-Year Target
$10.58
(-3%)
3-Year Target
$10.44
(-4%)
3-Yr Target (if PE normalizes)
(PE: 8→9)
$10.89
(+0%)
3-Year Scenarios
Using analyst projected EPS growth
Bull:
(PE: 21.8, Growth: 2.6%)
$31.00
(+186%)
Base:
(SPY PE: 8.2, Growth: 2.6%)
$11.73
(+8%)
Bear:
(PE: 7.0, Growth: 2.6%)
$9.97
(-8%)
📈
Valuation based on Current Earnings
RECOVERY PLAY: Stock looks expensive now (15x PE), but valuation improves significantly next year (8x PE) as earnings recover.
Trailing PE: 15.34 | Current EPS (TTM): $0.70
Bull Case
$22.24
(+103%)
Analyst growth 88.2%, PE expands to 16.9
Base Case
$20.21
(+84%)
Market implied 88.2%, PE stable at 15.3
Bear Case
$7.30
(-33%)
Severe decline -20.0%, PE contracts to 13.0
These are projections based on PE multiples and EPS growth scenarios, not predictions. Actual results may vary significantly.
💡
Upside Surprise Potential
If earnings stabilize (0% growth), PE could expand from 8.2 to 8.6
Stabilization Target:
$11.33
(+4.3%)
PE Expansion Potential:
+4.3%
Share & Embed Analysis
Last updated: July 13, 2026 5:44 PM ET
Data refreshes hourly during market hours. Next update: 6:44 PM
Data refreshes hourly during market hours. Next update: 6:44 PM
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Technical Signals Check
Is OBDC showing a specific setup today?
Insider Activity (6 Months)
0
Buys
0
Sells
0
Net
NEUTRAL
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