Blue Owl Capital (OBDC) Stock: Buy, Sell, or Hold?
OBDC - Blue Owl Capital Corporation
$10.44
-0.05 (-0.48%)
▼
5d:
-3.33%
30d:
-8.18%
90d:
-3.51%
WAIT
LOW Confidence
Analysis Updated: Oct 1, 2026 12:00 AM ET
Earnings: Nov 04, 2026
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Interactive Price Chart (1 Month)
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Bottom Line:
📊 MIXED SIGNALS: OBDC shows conflicting indicators. Wait for confirmation before entering.
📊 MIXED SIGNALS: OBDC shows conflicting indicators. Wait for confirmation before entering.
Long-Term Wealth Forecast (2031)
Based on Analyst Consensus Growth & Historical Valuation
0% (Stagnation)
50% (Hyper Growth)
EST. PRICE IN 2031
$0.45
Based on -38.6% avg growth
INTRINSIC VALUE TODAY
$0.28
Trading above historical range
How this is calculated: We use a Growth Decay Model: starting with analyst consensus growth (adjusted above) and gradually slowing it down to a long-term terminal rate (4%) by Year 5. This provides a more realistic valuation than assuming constant hyper-growth. We then apply a 8.6x Exit PE.
In-depth Analysis How we analyze
Valuation Analysis: OBDC is currently trading at $10.44, which is considered oversold relative to its 30-day fair value range of $10.85 to $11.39. The stock's valuation (Forward PE: 8.0) is in line with its historical norms (8.6). Remarkably, the market is currently pricing in an annual earnings decline of 2.4% over the next few years. This aligns with recent fundamental challenges.
Technical Outlook: Technically, OBDC is in a downtrend. The price is currently testing key support at $10.34. A bounce from this level would confirm strength, while a break below could signal further downside.
Market Sentiment: OBDC scores 13/100 on our bottoming-setup gauge. Note this measures entry quality, not trend direction — a low score can mean the chart is extended after a strong run (don't chase) or still falling without stabilization; better entries typically come after a pullback toward the 20-day average. Wall Street analysts see significant upside, with an average price target of $13.17 (+26.2%). Current signals suggest waiting for a better entry point before initiating new positions.
Technical Outlook: Technically, OBDC is in a downtrend. The price is currently testing key support at $10.34. A bounce from this level would confirm strength, while a break below could signal further downside.
Market Sentiment: OBDC scores 13/100 on our bottoming-setup gauge. Note this measures entry quality, not trend direction — a low score can mean the chart is extended after a strong run (don't chase) or still falling without stabilization; better entries typically come after a pullback toward the 20-day average. Wall Street analysts see significant upside, with an average price target of $13.17 (+26.2%). Current signals suggest waiting for a better entry point before initiating new positions.
Quick Decision Summary
Current Position
OVERSOLD
Historical Trading Range
$10.85 -
$11.39
Company Quality Score
34/100
(SELL)
Volume Confirmation
HIGH
Confidence Score
57.1%
All Signals
- BULLISH: Price oversold vs 30-day range
- BEARISH: Weak technical setup (13/100)
- BULLISH: High volume confirmation
- BULLISH: Trading 26.2% below Wall St target ($13.17)
- WARNING: Composite score 34/100 in the bottom quintile — this cohort historically lags the market
Trading Range Analysis
30-Day Trading Range
$10.85 -
$11.39
Current vs Trading Range
OVERSOLD
Support & Resistance Levels
Support Level
$10.34
Resistance Level
$11.34
Current Trend
Downtrend
Technical data as of
Oct 1, 2026
Fundamental Context
Forward P/E (Next Year Est.)
7.98
Wall Street Target
$13.17
(+26.2%)
Revenue Growth (YoY)
-17.4%
Earnings Growth (YoY)
-50.7%
Profit Margin
17.0%
Valuation Discount vs History
-2.4% cheaper
PE vs Historical
8.0 vs 8.6
FAIR
Market-Implied Price Targets
If current PE multiple persists
Implied Growth (YoY):
-2.4%
(market-implied from PE analysis)
1-Year Target
$10.19
(-2%)
2-Year Target
$9.94
(-5%)
3-Year Target
$9.71
(-7%)
3-Yr Target (if PE normalizes)
(PE: 8→9)
$10.46
(+0%)
3-Year Scenarios
Using analyst projected EPS growth
Bull:
(PE: 20.4, Growth: -81.1%)
$26.05
(+150%)
Base:
(SPY PE: 8.0, Growth: -81.1%)
$10.19
(-2%)
Bear:
(PE: 6.8, Growth: -81.1%)
$8.66
(-17%)
📈
Valuation based on Current Earnings
RECOVERY PLAY: Stock looks expensive now (19x PE), but valuation improves significantly next year (8x PE) as earnings recover.
Trailing PE: 18.73 | Current EPS (TTM): $0.56
Bull Case
$23.08
(+121%)
Analyst growth 100.0%, PE expands to 20.6
Base Case
$20.98
(+101%)
Market implied 100.0%, PE stable at 18.7
Bear Case
$7.13
(-32%)
Severe decline -20.0%, PE contracts to 15.9
These are projections based on PE multiples and EPS growth scenarios, not predictions. Actual results may vary significantly.
💡
Upside Surprise Potential
If earnings stabilize (0% growth), PE could expand from 8.0 to 8.6
Stabilization Target:
$11.25
(+7.8%)
PE Expansion Potential:
+7.8%
Share & Embed Analysis
Last updated: October 02, 2026 3:54 AM ET
Data refreshes hourly during market hours. Next update: 4:54 AM
Data refreshes hourly during market hours. Next update: 4:54 AM
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Technical Signals Check
Is OBDC showing a specific setup today?
Insider Activity (6 Months)
0
Buys
0
Sells
0
Net
NEUTRAL
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