OBDC Stock Analysis: Buy, Sell, or Hold?
OBDC - Blue Owl Capital Corporation
$11.30
0.02 (0.18%)
â˛
5d:
-3.58%
30d:
+5.61%
90d:
+1.07%
WAIT
LOW Confidence
Analysis Updated: Aug 21, 2026 12:00 AM ET
Earnings: Aug 05, 2026
0d
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Interactive Price Chart (1 Month)
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Bottom Line:
âšī¸ NEUTRAL: OBDC is fairly priced but lacks strong directional signals. At 0.4% expected growth, valuation appears fair. Wait for clearer setup or better entry on dips.
âšī¸ NEUTRAL: OBDC is fairly priced but lacks strong directional signals. At 0.4% expected growth, valuation appears fair. Wait for clearer setup or better entry on dips.
Long-Term Wealth Forecast (2031)
Based on Analyst Consensus Growth & Historical Valuation
0% (Stagnation)
50% (Hyper Growth)
EST. PRICE IN 2031
$12.03
Based on 1.5% avg growth
INTRINSIC VALUE TODAY
$7.47
Trading above historical range
How this is calculated: We use a Growth Decay Model: starting with analyst consensus growth (adjusted above) and gradually slowing it down to a long-term terminal rate (4%) by Year 5. This provides a more realistic valuation than assuming constant hyper-growth. We then apply a 8.6x Exit PE.
In-depth Analysis How we analyze
Valuation Analysis: OBDC is currently trading at $11.30, which is considered fair relative to its 30-day fair value range of $10.83 to $11.50. The stock's valuation (Forward PE: 8.7) is in line with its historical norms (8.6). At these levels, the market is pricing in 0.4% annual earnings growth.
Technical Outlook: Technically, OBDC is in a downtrend. The price is currently testing key support at $11.24. A bounce from this level would confirm strength, while a break below could signal further downside.
Market Sentiment: The stock scores a mixed 44/100 on our bottoming-setup gauge, with only partial signs of a stabilized entry point. Wall Street analysts see significant upside, with an average price target of $13.17 (+16.6%). Current signals suggest waiting for a better entry point before initiating new positions.
Technical Outlook: Technically, OBDC is in a downtrend. The price is currently testing key support at $11.24. A bounce from this level would confirm strength, while a break below could signal further downside.
Market Sentiment: The stock scores a mixed 44/100 on our bottoming-setup gauge, with only partial signs of a stabilized entry point. Wall Street analysts see significant upside, with an average price target of $13.17 (+16.6%). Current signals suggest waiting for a better entry point before initiating new positions.
Quick Decision Summary
Current Position
FAIR
Historical Trading Range
$10.83 -
$11.50
Company Quality Score
48/100
(HOLD)
Volume Confirmation
HIGH
Confidence Score
73.3%
All Signals
- NEUTRAL: Price in fair range
- NEUTRAL: Mixed technical signals (44/100)
- BULLISH: High volume confirmation
- BULLISH: Trading below Wall St target ($13.17)
- BULLISH: Expecting earnings turnaround to 0.4% growth with -17.4% revenue growth
- WARNING: Composite score 48/100 in the bottom quintile â this cohort historically lags the market
Trading Range Analysis
30-Day Trading Range
$10.83 -
$11.50
Current vs Trading Range
FAIR
Support & Resistance Levels
Support Level
$11.24
Resistance Level
$11.98
Current Trend
Downtrend
Technical data as of
Aug 21, 2026
Fundamental Context
Forward P/E (Next Year Est.)
8.69
Wall Street Target
$13.17
(+16.6%)
Revenue Growth (YoY)
-17.4%
Earnings Growth (YoY)
-50.7%
Profit Margin
17.0%
Valuation Premium vs History
+0.4% premium
PE vs Historical
8.7 vs 8.6
FAIR
Market-Implied Price Targets
If current PE multiple persists
Implied Growth (YoY):
+0.4%
(market-implied from PE analysis)
1-Year Target
$11.35
(+0%)
2-Year Target
$11.39
(+1%)
3-Year Target
$11.44
(+1%)
3-Yr Target (if PE normalizes)
(PE: 9â9)
PE COMPRESSION
$11.31
(+0%)
Earnings growth offset by PE compression
3-Year Scenarios
Using analyst projected EPS growth
Bull:
(PE: 20.1, Growth: -1.0%)
$25.29
(+124%)
Base:
(SPY PE: 8.7, Growth: -1.0%)
$10.95
(-3%)
Bear:
(PE: 7.4, Growth: -1.0%)
$9.31
(-18%)
đ
Valuation based on Current Earnings
RECOVERY PLAY: Stock looks expensive now (20x PE), but valuation improves significantly next year (9x PE) as earnings recover.
Trailing PE: 20.14 | Current EPS (TTM): $0.56
Bull Case
$24.82
(+120%)
Analyst growth 100.0%, PE expands to 22.2
Base Case
$22.56
(+100%)
Market implied 100.0%, PE stable at 20.1
Bear Case
$7.67
(-32%)
Severe decline -20.0%, PE contracts to 17.1
These are projections based on PE multiples and EPS growth scenarios, not predictions. Actual results may vary significantly.
Share & Embed Analysis
Last updated: August 22, 2026 7:43 PM ET
Data refreshes hourly during market hours. Next update: 8:43 PM
Data refreshes hourly during market hours. Next update: 8:43 PM
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Technical Signals Check
Is OBDC showing a specific setup today?
Insider Activity (6 Months)
0
Buys
0
Sells
0
Net
NEUTRAL
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