Blue Owl Capital (OBDC) Stock: Buy, Sell, or Hold?
OBDC - Blue Owl Capital Corporation
$11.08
0.02 (0.18%)
▲
5d:
-2.64%
30d:
-5.06%
90d:
-0.81%
WAIT
LOW Confidence
Analysis Updated: Sep 11, 2026 12:00 AM ET
Earnings: Nov 04, 2026
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Interactive Price Chart (1 Month)
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Bottom Line:
📊 MIXED SIGNALS: OBDC shows conflicting indicators. Wait for confirmation before entering.
📊 MIXED SIGNALS: OBDC shows conflicting indicators. Wait for confirmation before entering.
Long-Term Wealth Forecast (2031)
Based on Analyst Consensus Growth & Historical Valuation
0% (Stagnation)
50% (Hyper Growth)
EST. PRICE IN 2031
$0.45
Based on -38.6% avg growth
INTRINSIC VALUE TODAY
$0.28
Trading above historical range
How this is calculated: We use a Growth Decay Model: starting with analyst consensus growth (adjusted above) and gradually slowing it down to a long-term terminal rate (4%) by Year 5. This provides a more realistic valuation than assuming constant hyper-growth. We then apply a 8.6x Exit PE.
In-depth Analysis How we analyze
Valuation Analysis: OBDC is currently trading at $11.08, which is considered oversold relative to its 30-day fair value range of $11.14 to $11.58. The stock's valuation (Forward PE: 8.5) is in line with its historical norms (8.6). Remarkably, the market is currently pricing in an annual earnings decline of 0.4% over the next few years. This aligns with recent fundamental challenges.
Technical Outlook: Technically, OBDC is in a downtrend. The price is currently testing key support at $11.02. A bounce from this level would confirm strength, while a break below could signal further downside.
Market Sentiment: The stock scores a mixed 53/100 on our bottoming-setup gauge, with only partial signs of a stabilized entry point. Wall Street analysts see significant upside, with an average price target of $13.17 (+18.9%). Current signals suggest waiting for a better entry point before initiating new positions.
Technical Outlook: Technically, OBDC is in a downtrend. The price is currently testing key support at $11.02. A bounce from this level would confirm strength, while a break below could signal further downside.
Market Sentiment: The stock scores a mixed 53/100 on our bottoming-setup gauge, with only partial signs of a stabilized entry point. Wall Street analysts see significant upside, with an average price target of $13.17 (+18.9%). Current signals suggest waiting for a better entry point before initiating new positions.
Quick Decision Summary
Current Position
OVERSOLD
Historical Trading Range
$11.14 -
$11.58
Company Quality Score
50/100
(HOLD)
Volume Confirmation
HIGH
Confidence Score
77.1%
All Signals
- BULLISH: Price oversold vs 30-day range
- NEUTRAL: Mixed technical signals (53/100)
- BULLISH: High volume confirmation
- BULLISH: Trading below Wall St target ($13.17)
- WARNING: Composite score 50/100 in the bottom quintile — this cohort historically lags the market
Trading Range Analysis
30-Day Trading Range
$11.14 -
$11.58
Current vs Trading Range
OVERSOLD
Support & Resistance Levels
Support Level
$11.02
Resistance Level
$11.63
Current Trend
Downtrend
Technical data as of
Sep 11, 2026
Fundamental Context
Forward P/E (Next Year Est.)
8.47
Wall Street Target
$13.17
(+18.9%)
Revenue Growth (YoY)
-17.4%
Earnings Growth (YoY)
-50.7%
Profit Margin
17.0%
Valuation Discount vs History
-0.4% cheaper
PE vs Historical
8.5 vs 8.6
FAIR
Market-Implied Price Targets
If current PE multiple persists
Implied Growth (YoY):
-0.4%
(market-implied from PE analysis)
1-Year Target
$11.04
(0%)
2-Year Target
$10.99
(-1%)
3-Year Target
$10.95
(-1%)
3-Yr Target (if PE normalizes)
(PE: 8→9)
$11.12
(+0%)
3-Year Scenarios
Using analyst projected EPS growth
Bull:
(PE: 20.2, Growth: -81.1%)
$25.76
(+132%)
Base:
(SPY PE: 8.5, Growth: -81.1%)
$10.81
(-2%)
Bear:
(PE: 7.2, Growth: -81.1%)
$9.19
(-17%)
📈
Valuation based on Current Earnings
RECOVERY PLAY: Stock looks expensive now (20x PE), but valuation improves significantly next year (8x PE) as earnings recover.
Trailing PE: 19.75 | Current EPS (TTM): $0.56
Bull Case
$24.33
(+120%)
Analyst growth 100.0%, PE expands to 21.7
Base Case
$22.12
(+100%)
Market implied 100.0%, PE stable at 19.8
Bear Case
$7.52
(-32%)
Severe decline -20.0%, PE contracts to 16.8
These are projections based on PE multiples and EPS growth scenarios, not predictions. Actual results may vary significantly.
💡
Upside Surprise Potential
If earnings stabilize (0% growth), PE could expand from 8.5 to 8.6
Stabilization Target:
$11.25
(+1.6%)
PE Expansion Potential:
+1.6%
Share & Embed Analysis
Last updated: September 11, 2026 10:51 PM ET
Data refreshes hourly during market hours. Next update: 11:51 PM
Data refreshes hourly during market hours. Next update: 11:51 PM
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Technical Signals Check
Is OBDC showing a specific setup today?
Insider Activity (6 Months)
0
Buys
0
Sells
0
Net
NEUTRAL
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