Blue Owl Capital (OBDC) Stock: Buy, Sell, or Hold?
$11.16
-0.01 (-0.09%)
▼
5d:
+6.29%
30d:
+10.28%
90d:
-4.37%
QUANTITATIVE VERDICT
WAIT
LOW Confidence (26%)
Quality Score
29/100
Position
EXTENDED
30-Day Fair Range
$9.94 – $10.66
Position: EXTENDED
Forward P/E & Valuation
8.4x
FAIR
vs 8.5x historical avg
Wall Street Target
$13.02
+16.7% upside
Options IV & Volume
HIGH Vol
HIGH volume confirmation
Support / Resistance
$10.01 / $11.21
Trend: Downtrend
Executive Thesis & Bottom Line
Forward Earnings Fair Value & Price Prediction →
📊 MIXED SIGNALS: OBDC shows conflicting indicators. Wait for confirmation before entering.
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Interactive Price Chart (1 Month)
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Long-Term Wealth Forecast (2031)
Based on Analyst Consensus Growth & Historical Valuation
0% (Stagnation)
50% (Hyper Growth)
EST. PRICE IN 2031
$10.99
Based on -0.6% avg growth
INTRINSIC VALUE TODAY
$6.83
Trading above historical range
How this is calculated: We use a Growth Decay Model: starting with analyst consensus growth (adjusted above) and gradually slowing it down to a long-term terminal rate (4%) by Year 5. This provides a more realistic valuation than assuming constant hyper-growth. We then apply a 8.5x Exit PE.
In-depth Analysis How we analyze
Valuation Analysis: OBDC is currently trading at $11.16, which is considered extended relative to its 30-day fair value range of $9.94 to $10.66. The stock's valuation (Forward PE: 8.3) is in line with its historical norms (8.5). Remarkably, the market is currently pricing in an annual earnings decline of 0.5% over the next few years. This aligns with recent fundamental challenges.
Technical Outlook: Technically, OBDC is in a downtrend. The price is approaching resistance at $11.21. A breakout above this level would be a bullish signal, while rejection here could lead to consolidation.
Market Sentiment: OBDC scores 10/100 on our bottoming-setup gauge. Note this measures entry quality, not trend direction — a low score can mean the chart is extended after a strong run (don't chase) or still falling without stabilization; better entries typically come after a pullback toward the 20-day average. Wall Street analysts see significant upside, with an average price target of $13.02 (+16.7%). Current signals suggest waiting for a better entry point before initiating new positions.
Technical Outlook: Technically, OBDC is in a downtrend. The price is approaching resistance at $11.21. A breakout above this level would be a bullish signal, while rejection here could lead to consolidation.
Market Sentiment: OBDC scores 10/100 on our bottoming-setup gauge. Note this measures entry quality, not trend direction — a low score can mean the chart is extended after a strong run (don't chase) or still falling without stabilization; better entries typically come after a pullback toward the 20-day average. Wall Street analysts see significant upside, with an average price target of $13.02 (+16.7%). Current signals suggest waiting for a better entry point before initiating new positions.
Quick Decision Summary
Current Position
EXTENDED
Historical Trading Range
$9.94 -
$10.66
Company Quality Score
29/100
(SELL)
Volume Confirmation
HIGH
Confidence Score
26.2%
Trading Range & Key Levels
30-Day Trading Range
$9.94 -
$10.66
Current vs Trading Range
EXTENDED
Support Level
$10.01
Resistance Level
$11.21
Current Trend
Downtrend
Technical data as of
Nov 10, 2026
Quantitative Signal Breakdown
- BEARISH: Price extended above range
- BEARISH: Weak technical setup (10/100)
- BULLISH: High volume confirmation
- BULLISH: Trading below Wall St target ($13.02)
- WARNING: Composite score 29/100 in the bottom quintile — this cohort historically lags the market
Fundamental Context
Forward P/E (Next Year Est.)
8.35
Wall Street Target
$13.02
(+16.7%)
Revenue Growth (YoY)
-17.4%
Earnings Growth (YoY)
-50.7%
Profit Margin
17.0%
Valuation Discount vs History
-0.5% cheaper
PE vs Historical
8.4 vs 8.5
FAIR
Market-Implied Price Targets
If current PE multiple persists
Implied Growth (YoY):
-0.5%
(market-implied from PE analysis)
1-Year Target
$11.10
(-1%)
2-Year Target
$11.05
(-1%)
3-Year Target
$10.99
(-2%)
3-Yr Target (if PE normalizes)
(PE: 8→9)
$11.19
(+0%)
3-Year Scenarios
Using analyst projected EPS growth
Bull:
(PE: 19.9, Growth: -5.2%)
$26.50
(+137%)
Base:
(SPY PE: 8.4, Growth: -5.2%)
$11.14
(0%)
Bear:
(PE: 7.1, Growth: -5.2%)
$9.47
(-15%)
📈
Valuation based on Current Earnings
RECOVERY PLAY: Stock looks expensive now (16x PE), but valuation improves significantly next year (8x PE) as earnings recover.
Trailing PE: 16.19 | Current EPS (TTM): $0.69
Bull Case
$23.80
(+113%)
Analyst growth 93.7%, PE expands to 17.8
Base Case
$21.63
(+94%)
Market implied 93.7%, PE stable at 16.2
Bear Case
$7.60
(-32%)
Severe decline -20.0%, PE contracts to 13.8
These are projections based on PE multiples and EPS growth scenarios, not predictions. Actual results may vary significantly.
💡
Upside Surprise Potential
If earnings stabilize (0% growth), PE could expand from 8.4 to 8.5
Stabilization Target:
$11.36
(+1.8%)
PE Expansion Potential:
+1.8%
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bloggers & journalists: you are free to use our charts with attribution.Reddit & Retail Trader Sentiment (OBDC)
Bullish
2 Retail Mentions
Reddit / WSB Comments
1
Bearish
StockTwits Volume
1 msgs
24h retail stream
Last Tracked
Nov 6, 2026
Daily AI digest
AI Retail Discussion Summary:
Blue Owl Capital reported stable credit quality and increased investment activity in Q3 2026, with wider loan spreads and higher base rates benefiting the portfolio.
Key Retail Themes:
Wider loan spreads and higher base rates positively impacting Blue Owl Capital's portfolio
Focus on U.S.-based middle-market enterprises in defensive industries contributing to net asset value growth
Aggregated from r/wallstreetbets, r/stocks & StockTwits streams.
View All Trending Reddit & WSB Stocks →
Last updated: November 11, 2026 8:06 AM ET
Data refreshes hourly during market hours. Next update: 9:06 AM
Data refreshes hourly during market hours. Next update: 9:06 AM
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Technical Signals Check
Is OBDC showing a specific setup today?
Insider Activity (6 Months)
0
Buys
0
Sells
0
Net
NEUTRAL
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