Blue Owl Capital (OBDC) Stock: Buy, Sell, or Hold?
OBDC - Blue Owl Capital Corporation
$9.88
-0.04 (-0.40%)
▼
5d:
-2.18%
30d:
-11.31%
90d:
-7.66%
WAIT
LOW Confidence
Analysis Updated: Oct 21, 2026 12:00 AM ET
Earnings: Nov 04, 2026
12d
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Interactive Price Chart (1 Month)
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Bottom Line:
📊 MIXED SIGNALS: OBDC shows conflicting indicators. Wait for confirmation before entering.
📊 MIXED SIGNALS: OBDC shows conflicting indicators. Wait for confirmation before entering.
Long-Term Wealth Forecast (2031)
Based on Analyst Consensus Growth & Historical Valuation
0% (Stagnation)
50% (Hyper Growth)
EST. PRICE IN 2031
$0.42
Based on -38.9% avg growth
INTRINSIC VALUE TODAY
$0.26
Trading above historical range
How this is calculated: We use a Growth Decay Model: starting with analyst consensus growth (adjusted above) and gradually slowing it down to a long-term terminal rate (4%) by Year 5. This provides a more realistic valuation than assuming constant hyper-growth. We then apply a 8.5x Exit PE.
In-depth Analysis How we analyze
Valuation Analysis: OBDC is currently trading at $9.88, which is considered oversold relative to its 30-day fair value range of $10.04 to $10.99. From a valuation perspective, the stock is trading at a discount (Forward PE: 7.5) compared to its historical average (8.5). Remarkably, the market is currently pricing in an annual earnings decline of 3.9% over the next few years. This aligns with recent fundamental challenges.
Technical Outlook: Technically, OBDC is in a downtrend. The price is currently testing key support at $9.81. A bounce from this level would confirm strength, while a break below could signal further downside.
Market Sentiment: The stock scores a mixed 45/100 on our bottoming-setup gauge, with only partial signs of a stabilized entry point. Wall Street analysts see significant upside, with an average price target of $13.17 (+33.3%). Current signals suggest waiting for a better entry point before initiating new positions.
Technical Outlook: Technically, OBDC is in a downtrend. The price is currently testing key support at $9.81. A bounce from this level would confirm strength, while a break below could signal further downside.
Market Sentiment: The stock scores a mixed 45/100 on our bottoming-setup gauge, with only partial signs of a stabilized entry point. Wall Street analysts see significant upside, with an average price target of $13.17 (+33.3%). Current signals suggest waiting for a better entry point before initiating new positions.
Quick Decision Summary
Current Position
OVERSOLD
Historical Trading Range
$10.04 -
$10.99
Company Quality Score
53/100
(HOLD)
Volume Confirmation
HIGH
Confidence Score
79.5%
All Signals
- BULLISH: Price oversold vs 30-day range
- NEUTRAL: Mixed technical signals (45/100)
- BULLISH: High volume confirmation
- BULLISH: Trading 33.3% below Wall St target ($13.17)
- WARNING: Composite score 53/100 in the bottom quintile — this cohort historically lags the market
Trading Range Analysis
30-Day Trading Range
$10.04 -
$10.99
Current vs Trading Range
OVERSOLD
Support & Resistance Levels
Support Level
$9.81
Resistance Level
$10.40
Current Trend
Downtrend
Technical data as of
Oct 21, 2026
Fundamental Context
Forward P/E (Next Year Est.)
7.55
Wall Street Target
$13.17
(+33.3%)
Revenue Growth (YoY)
-17.4%
Earnings Growth (YoY)
-50.7%
Profit Margin
17.0%
Valuation Discount vs History
-3.9% cheaper
PE vs Historical
7.6 vs 8.5
CHEAP
Market-Implied Price Targets
If current PE multiple persists
Implied Growth (YoY):
-3.9%
(market-implied from PE analysis)
1-Year Target
$9.49
(-4%)
2-Year Target
$9.12
(-8%)
3-Year Target
$8.77
(-11%)
3-Yr Target (if PE normalizes)
(PE: 8→9)
$9.88
(0%)
3-Year Scenarios
Using analyst projected EPS growth
Bull:
(PE: 19.9, Growth: -81.8%)
$25.37
(+157%)
Base:
(SPY PE: 7.5, Growth: -81.8%)
$9.64
(-2%)
Bear:
(PE: 6.4, Growth: -81.8%)
$8.19
(-17%)
📈
Valuation based on Current Earnings
RECOVERY PLAY: Stock looks expensive now (18x PE), but valuation improves significantly next year (8x PE) as earnings recover.
Trailing PE: 17.71 | Current EPS (TTM): $0.56
Bull Case
$21.82
(+121%)
Analyst growth 100.0%, PE expands to 19.5
Base Case
$19.84
(+101%)
Market implied 100.0%, PE stable at 17.7
Bear Case
$6.75
(-32%)
Severe decline -20.0%, PE contracts to 15.1
These are projections based on PE multiples and EPS growth scenarios, not predictions. Actual results may vary significantly.
💡
Upside Surprise Potential
If earnings stabilize (0% growth), PE could expand from 7.5 to 8.5
Stabilization Target:
$11.13
(+12.6%)
PE Expansion Potential:
+12.6%
Share & Embed Analysis
Last updated: October 22, 2026 8:47 AM ET
Data refreshes hourly during market hours. Next update: 9:47 AM
Data refreshes hourly during market hours. Next update: 9:47 AM
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Technical Signals Check
Is OBDC showing a specific setup today?
Insider Activity (6 Months)
0
Buys
0
Sells
0
Net
NEUTRAL
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