OBDC Stock Analysis: Buy, Sell, or Hold?
OBDC - Blue Owl Capital Corporation
$10.79
-0.08 (-0.74%)
▼
5d:
-3.49%
30d:
-2.97%
90d:
-3.23%
HOLD
MODERATE Confidence
Analysis Updated: Jun 22, 2026 12:00 AM ET
Earnings: Aug 05, 2026
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Interactive Price Chart (1 Month)
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Bottom Line:
📊 HOLD: OBDC shows mixed signals. Fine to hold existing positions. Not urgent to buy or sell.
📊 HOLD: OBDC shows mixed signals. Fine to hold existing positions. Not urgent to buy or sell.
Long-Term Wealth Forecast (2031)
Based on Analyst Consensus Growth & Historical Valuation
0% (Stagnation)
50% (Hyper Growth)
EST. PRICE IN 2031
$13.32
Based on 3.3% avg growth
INTRINSIC VALUE TODAY
$8.27
Trading above historical range
How this is calculated: We use a Growth Decay Model: starting with analyst consensus growth (adjusted above) and gradually slowing it down to a long-term terminal rate (4%) by Year 5. This provides a more realistic valuation than assuming constant hyper-growth. We then apply a 8.6x Exit PE.
In-depth Analysis How we analyze
Valuation Analysis: OBDC is currently trading at $10.79, which is considered oversold relative to its 30-day fair value range of $10.96 to $11.25. The stock's valuation (Forward PE: 8.2) is in line with its historical norms (8.6). Remarkably, the market is currently pricing in an annual earnings decline of 1.6% over the next few years. This aligns with recent fundamental challenges.
Technical Outlook: Technically, OBDC is in a downtrend. The price is currently testing key support at $10.89. A bounce from this level would confirm strength, while a break below could signal further downside.
Market Sentiment: OBDC has a weak technical setup (25/100), with bearish trendlines and momentum suggesting caution for short-term entries. Wall Street analysts see significant upside, with an average price target of $13.31 (+23.4%). The stock is fairly positioned - fine to hold existing positions or accumulate slowly on dips, but not an urgent buy.
Technical Outlook: Technically, OBDC is in a downtrend. The price is currently testing key support at $10.89. A bounce from this level would confirm strength, while a break below could signal further downside.
Market Sentiment: OBDC has a weak technical setup (25/100), with bearish trendlines and momentum suggesting caution for short-term entries. Wall Street analysts see significant upside, with an average price target of $13.31 (+23.4%). The stock is fairly positioned - fine to hold existing positions or accumulate slowly on dips, but not an urgent buy.
Quick Decision Summary
Current Position
OVERSOLD
Historical Trading Range
$10.96 -
$11.25
Company Quality Score
55/100
(HOLD)
Volume Confirmation
HIGH
Confidence Score
57.1%
All Signals
- BULLISH: Price oversold vs 30-day range
- BEARISH: Weak technical setup (25/100)
- BULLISH: High volume confirmation
- BULLISH: Trading 23.4% below Wall St target ($13.31)
Trading Range Analysis
30-Day Trading Range
$10.96 -
$11.25
Current vs Trading Range
OVERSOLD
Support & Resistance Levels
Support Level
$10.89
Resistance Level
$11.52
Current Trend
Downtrend
Technical data as of
Jun 9, 2026
Fundamental Context
Forward P/E (Next Year Est.)
8.20
Wall Street Target
$13.31
(+23.4%)
Revenue Growth (YoY)
-14.6%
Earnings Growth (YoY)
-40.9%
Profit Margin
20.2%
Valuation Discount vs History
-1.6% cheaper
PE vs Historical
8.2 vs 8.6
FAIR
Market-Implied Price Targets
If current PE multiple persists
Implied Growth (YoY):
-1.6%
(market-implied from PE analysis)
1-Year Target
$10.62
(-2%)
2-Year Target
$10.45
(-3%)
3-Year Target
$10.28
(-5%)
3-Yr Target (if PE normalizes)
(PE: 8→9)
$10.79
(0%)
3-Year Scenarios
Using analyst projected EPS growth
Bull:
(PE: 21.8, Growth: 2.6%)
$30.95
(+187%)
Base:
(SPY PE: 8.2, Growth: 2.6%)
$11.65
(+8%)
Bear:
(PE: 7.0, Growth: 2.6%)
$9.90
(-8%)
📈
Valuation based on Current Earnings
RECOVERY PLAY: Stock looks expensive now (16x PE), but valuation improves significantly next year (8x PE) as earnings recover.
Trailing PE: 15.53 | Current EPS (TTM): $0.70
Bull Case
$22.49
(+108%)
Analyst growth 88.1%, PE expands to 17.1
Base Case
$20.44
(+90%)
Market implied 88.1%, PE stable at 15.5
Bear Case
$7.39
(-32%)
Severe decline -20.0%, PE contracts to 13.2
These are projections based on PE multiples and EPS growth scenarios, not predictions. Actual results may vary significantly.
💡
Upside Surprise Potential
If earnings stabilize (0% growth), PE could expand from 8.2 to 8.6
Stabilization Target:
$11.32
(+4.9%)
PE Expansion Potential:
+4.9%
Share & Embed Analysis
Last updated: June 23, 2026 9:01 AM ET
Data refreshes hourly during market hours. Next update: 10:01 AM
Data refreshes hourly during market hours. Next update: 10:01 AM
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Technical Signals Check
Is OBDC showing a specific setup today?
Insider Activity (6 Months)
0
Buys
0
Sells
0
Net
NEUTRAL
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