OMDA Stock Analysis: Buy, Sell, or Hold?
OMDA - Omada Health, Inc. Common Stock
$19.84
0.15 (0.76%)
▲
5d:
-3.36%
30d:
-12.29%
90d:
+36.08%
BUY
HIGH Confidence
Analysis Updated: Jul 31, 2026 12:00 AM ET
Earnings: Aug 06, 2026
3d
Smart Money Accumulation
None View Scanner →
Strength: 8.8/10
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Interactive Price Chart (1 Month)
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Bottom Line:
✅ BUY SIGNAL: OMDA trading at deep discount. Market pricing in -11.9% annual earnings decline, creating value opportunity for patient investors.
✅ BUY SIGNAL: OMDA trading at deep discount. Market pricing in -11.9% annual earnings decline, creating value opportunity for patient investors.
Long-Term Wealth Forecast (2031)
Based on Analyst Consensus Growth & Historical Valuation
0% (Stagnation)
50% (Hyper Growth)
EST. PRICE IN 2031
$23.07
Based on 14.5% avg growth
INTRINSIC VALUE TODAY
$14.32
Trading above historical range
How this is calculated: We use a Growth Decay Model: starting with analyst consensus growth (adjusted above) and gradually slowing it down to a long-term terminal rate (4%) by Year 5. This provides a more realistic valuation than assuming constant hyper-growth. We then apply a 25.0x Exit PE.
In-depth Analysis How we analyze
Valuation Analysis: OMDA is currently trading at $19.84, which is considered slightly low relative to its 30-day fair value range of $19.82 to $23.47. From a valuation perspective, the stock is trading at a discount (Forward PE: 41.9) compared to its historical average (61.1). Remarkably, the market is currently pricing in an annual earnings decline of 11.9% over the next few years. This aligns with recent fundamental challenges.
Technical Outlook: Technically, OMDA is in a strong uptrend. Immediate support is located at $18.24, while resistance sits at $23.98.
Market Sentiment: The stock shows a mixed technical setup (40/100), with neutral trendline and momentum signals. Wall Street analysts see significant upside, with an average price target of $24.58 (+23.9%). Combining these factors, the current setup offers a favorable risk/reward ratio for buyers.
Technical Outlook: Technically, OMDA is in a strong uptrend. Immediate support is located at $18.24, while resistance sits at $23.98.
Market Sentiment: The stock shows a mixed technical setup (40/100), with neutral trendline and momentum signals. Wall Street analysts see significant upside, with an average price target of $24.58 (+23.9%). Combining these factors, the current setup offers a favorable risk/reward ratio for buyers.
Quick Decision Summary
Current Position
SLIGHTLY LOW
Historical Trading Range
$19.82 -
$23.47
Company Quality Score
59/100
(HOLD)
Volume Confirmation
HIGH
Confidence Score
79.5%
All Signals
- BULLISH: Price oversold vs 30-day range
- NEUTRAL: Mixed technical signals (40/100)
- BULLISH: High volume confirmation
- BULLISH: Trading 23.9% below Wall St target ($24.58)
Trading Range Analysis
30-Day Trading Range
$19.82 -
$23.47
Current vs Trading Range
SLIGHTLY LOW
Support & Resistance Levels
Support Level
$18.24
Resistance Level
$23.98
Current Trend
Strong Uptrend
Technical data as of
Jul 31, 2026
Fundamental Context
Forward P/E (Next Year Est.)
41.87
Wall Street Target
$24.58
(+23.9%)
Revenue Growth (YoY)
42.0%
Profit Margin
-2.2%
Valuation Discount vs History
-11.9% cheaper
PE vs Historical
41.9 vs 61.1
CHEAP
Market-Implied Price Targets
If current PE multiple persists
Implied Growth (YoY):
-11.9%
(market-implied from PE analysis)
1-Year Target
$17.86
(-10%)
2-Year Target
$16.07
(-19%)
3-Year Target
$14.46
(-27%)
3-Yr Target (if PE normalizes)
(PE: 42→61)
$21.10
(+6%)
3-Year Scenarios
Using analyst projected EPS growth
Bull:
(PE: 41.9, Growth: 50.9%)
$66.96
(+238%)
Base:
(SPY PE: 20.7, Growth: 50.9%)
$33.15
(+67%)
Bear:
(PE: 17.6, Growth: 50.9%)
$28.18
(+42%)
💡
Upside Surprise Potential
If earnings stabilize (0% growth), PE could expand from 41.9 to 61.1
Stabilization Target:
$28.95
(+45.9%)
PE Expansion Potential:
+45.9%
Share & Embed Analysis
Last updated: August 02, 2026 7:42 AM ET
Data refreshes hourly during market hours. Next update: 8:42 AM
Data refreshes hourly during market hours. Next update: 8:42 AM
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Technical Signals Check
Is OMDA showing a specific setup today?
Insider Activity (6 Months)
0
Buys
3
Sells
Net
INSIDERS SELLING
Recent Transactions
Wei-Li Shao
SELL
2829 shares
2026-04-08
Steven L Cook
SELL
1884 shares
2026-03-13
Sean P Duffy
SELL
4063 shares
2026-03-09
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