OMDA Stock Analysis: Buy, Sell, or Hold?
OMDA - Omada Health, Inc. Common Stock
$23.89
0.18 (0.76%)
▲
5d:
-0.62%
30d:
+12.69%
90d:
+45.32%
WAIT
LOW Confidence
Analysis Updated: Aug 21, 2026 12:00 AM ET
Earnings: Aug 06, 2026
0d
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Interactive Price Chart (1 Month)
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Bottom Line:
📊 MIXED SIGNALS: OMDA shows conflicting indicators. Wait for confirmation before entering.
📊 MIXED SIGNALS: OMDA shows conflicting indicators. Wait for confirmation before entering.
Long-Term Wealth Forecast (2031)
Based on Analyst Consensus Growth & Historical Valuation
0% (Stagnation)
50% (Hyper Growth)
EST. PRICE IN 2031
$27.07
Based on 14.5% avg growth
INTRINSIC VALUE TODAY
$16.81
Trading above historical range
How this is calculated: We use a Growth Decay Model: starting with analyst consensus growth (adjusted above) and gradually slowing it down to a long-term terminal rate (4%) by Year 5. This provides a more realistic valuation than assuming constant hyper-growth. We then apply a 25.0x Exit PE.
In-depth Analysis How we analyze
Valuation Analysis: OMDA is currently trading at $23.89, which is considered extended relative to its 30-day fair value range of $20.44 to $24.20. From a valuation perspective, the stock is trading at a discount (Forward PE: 43.0) compared to its historical average (59.6). Remarkably, the market is currently pricing in an annual earnings decline of 10.3% over the next few years. This aligns with recent fundamental challenges.
Technical Outlook: Technically, OMDA is in a strong uptrend. The price is currently testing key support at $23.41. A bounce from this level would confirm strength, while a break below could signal further downside.
Market Sentiment: OMDA scores 31/100 on our bottoming-setup gauge. Note this measures entry quality, not trend direction — a low score can mean the chart is extended after a strong run (don't chase) or still falling without stabilization; better entries typically come after a pullback toward the 20-day average. Wall Street analysts see significant upside, with an average price target of $28.25 (+18.3%). Current signals suggest waiting for a better entry point before initiating new positions.
Technical Outlook: Technically, OMDA is in a strong uptrend. The price is currently testing key support at $23.41. A bounce from this level would confirm strength, while a break below could signal further downside.
Market Sentiment: OMDA scores 31/100 on our bottoming-setup gauge. Note this measures entry quality, not trend direction — a low score can mean the chart is extended after a strong run (don't chase) or still falling without stabilization; better entries typically come after a pullback toward the 20-day average. Wall Street analysts see significant upside, with an average price target of $28.25 (+18.3%). Current signals suggest waiting for a better entry point before initiating new positions.
Quick Decision Summary
Current Position
EXTENDED
Historical Trading Range
$20.44 -
$24.20
Company Quality Score
48/100
(HOLD)
Volume Confirmation
HIGH
Confidence Score
26.2%
Protect Your Profits
Holding OMDA? Use our AI-powered strategies to protect your downside while keeping your long-term position.
View Profit Protection PlanAll Signals
- BEARISH: Price extended above range
- BEARISH: Weak technical setup (31/100)
- BULLISH: High volume confirmation
- BULLISH: Trading below Wall St target ($28.25)
- WARNING: Composite score 48/100 in the bottom quintile — this cohort historically lags the market
Trading Range Analysis
30-Day Trading Range
$20.44 -
$24.20
Current vs Trading Range
EXTENDED
Support & Resistance Levels
Support Level
$23.42
Resistance Level
$25.17
Current Trend
Strong Uptrend
Technical data as of
Aug 21, 2026
Fundamental Context
Forward P/E (Next Year Est.)
42.96
Wall Street Target
$28.25
(+18.3%)
Revenue Growth (YoY)
43.1%
Profit Margin
1.4%
Valuation Discount vs History
-10.3% cheaper
PE vs Historical
43.0 vs 59.6
CHEAP
Market-Implied Price Targets
If current PE multiple persists
Implied Growth (YoY):
-10.3%
(market-implied from PE analysis)
1-Year Target
$21.50
(-10%)
2-Year Target
$19.35
(-19%)
3-Year Target
$17.42
(-27%)
3-Yr Target (if PE normalizes)
(PE: 43→60)
$24.16
(+1%)
3-Year Scenarios
Using analyst projected EPS growth
Bull:
(PE: 43.0, Growth: 27.5%)
$49.57
(+108%)
Base:
(SPY PE: 20.1, Growth: 27.5%)
$23.16
(-3%)
Bear:
(PE: 17.1, Growth: 27.5%)
$19.68
(-18%)
📈
Valuation based on Current Earnings
Trailing PE: 36.48 | Current EPS (TTM): $0.65
Bull Case
$22.31
(-7%)
Analyst growth -14.4%, PE expands to 40.1
Base Case
$20.28
(-15%)
Market implied -14.4%, PE stable at 36.5
Bear Case
$16.12
(-33%)
Severe decline -20.0%, PE contracts to 31.0
These are projections based on PE multiples and EPS growth scenarios, not predictions. Actual results may vary significantly.
💡
Upside Surprise Potential
If earnings stabilize (0% growth), PE could expand from 43.0 to 59.6
Stabilization Target:
$33.14
(+38.7%)
PE Expansion Potential:
+38.7%
Share & Embed Analysis
Last updated: August 22, 2026 5:27 PM ET
Data refreshes hourly during market hours. Next update: 6:27 PM
Data refreshes hourly during market hours. Next update: 6:27 PM
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| Ticker | Score | Recommendation | Change % |
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Technical Signals Check
Is OMDA showing a specific setup today?
Insider Activity (6 Months)
0
Buys
3
Sells
Net
INSIDERS SELLING
Recent Transactions
Wei-Li Shao
SELL
2829 shares
2026-04-08
Steven L Cook
SELL
1884 shares
2026-03-13
Sean P Duffy
SELL
4063 shares
2026-03-09
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