ORC Stock Analysis: Buy, Sell, or Hold?
ORC - Orchid Island Capital, Inc.
$6.72
-0.09 (-1.32%)
▼
5d:
-2.47%
30d:
+2.6%
90d:
-6.67%
HOLD
MODERATE Confidence
Analysis Updated: Jul 13, 2026 12:00 AM ET
Earnings: Jul 23, 2026
8d
Get Alerted When ORC Hits Your Target Price
Join 10,000+ traders who never miss a move
You're in! Check your email to confirm and set your target price.
100% Free
No spam, ever
Unsubscribe anytime
Interactive Price Chart (1 Month)
Loading chart...
Loading historical data...
Bottom Line:
📊 HOLD: ORC shows mixed signals. Fine to hold existing positions. Not urgent to buy or sell.
📊 HOLD: ORC shows mixed signals. Fine to hold existing positions. Not urgent to buy or sell.
Long-Term Wealth Forecast (2031)
Based on Analyst Consensus Growth & Historical Valuation
0% (Stagnation)
50% (Hyper Growth)
EST. PRICE IN 2031
$8.92
Based on 4.4% avg growth
INTRINSIC VALUE TODAY
$5.54
Trading above historical range
How this is calculated: We use a Growth Decay Model: starting with analyst consensus growth (adjusted above) and gradually slowing it down to a long-term terminal rate (4%) by Year 5. This provides a more realistic valuation than assuming constant hyper-growth. We then apply a 5.8x Exit PE.
In-depth Analysis How we analyze
Valuation Analysis: ORC is currently trading at $6.72, which is considered fair relative to its 30-day fair value range of $6.59 to $6.88. The stock's valuation (Forward PE: 5.4) is in line with its historical norms (5.8). Remarkably, the market is currently pricing in an annual earnings decline of 2.0% over the next few years. This pessimistic expectation contrasts with the company's recent 793.8% earnings growth, suggesting potential undervaluation if the company simply maintains stability.
Technical Outlook: Technically, ORC is in a strong downtrend. Immediate support is located at $6.42, while resistance sits at $6.97.
Market Sentiment: ORC has a weak technical setup (25/100), with bearish trendlines and momentum suggesting caution for short-term entries. Wall Street analysts see significant upside, with an average price target of $7.50 (+11.6%). The stock is fairly positioned - fine to hold existing positions or accumulate slowly on dips, but not an urgent buy.
Technical Outlook: Technically, ORC is in a strong downtrend. Immediate support is located at $6.42, while resistance sits at $6.97.
Market Sentiment: ORC has a weak technical setup (25/100), with bearish trendlines and momentum suggesting caution for short-term entries. Wall Street analysts see significant upside, with an average price target of $7.50 (+11.6%). The stock is fairly positioned - fine to hold existing positions or accumulate slowly on dips, but not an urgent buy.
Quick Decision Summary
Current Position
FAIR
Historical Trading Range
$6.59 -
$6.88
Company Quality Score
55/100
(HOLD)
Volume Confirmation
HIGH
Confidence Score
47.6%
All Signals
- NEUTRAL: Price in fair range
- BEARISH: Weak technical setup (25/100)
- BULLISH: High volume confirmation
- BULLISH: Trading below Wall St target ($7.50)
Trading Range Analysis
30-Day Trading Range
$6.59 -
$6.88
Current vs Trading Range
FAIR
Support & Resistance Levels
Support Level
$6.42
Resistance Level
$6.97
Current Trend
Strong Downtrend
Technical data as of
Jun 9, 2026
Fundamental Context
Forward P/E (Next Year Est.)
5.42
Wall Street Target
$7.50
(+11.6%)
Revenue Growth (YoY)
1003.1%
Earnings Growth (YoY)
793.8%
Profit Margin
83.8%
Valuation Discount vs History
-2.0% cheaper
PE vs Historical
5.4 vs 5.8
FAIR
Market-Implied Price Targets
If current PE multiple persists
Implied Growth (YoY):
-2.0%
(market-implied from PE analysis)
1-Year Target
$6.59
(-2%)
2-Year Target
$6.45
(-4%)
3-Year Target
$6.32
(-6%)
3-Yr Target (if PE normalizes)
(PE: 5→6)
$6.77
(+1%)
3-Year Scenarios
Using analyst projected EPS growth
Bull:
(PE: 21.8, Growth: 4.8%)
$31.08
(+363%)
Base:
(SPY PE: 5.4, Growth: 4.8%)
$7.73
(+15%)
Bear:
(PE: 4.6, Growth: 4.8%)
$6.57
(-2%)
📈
Valuation based on Current Earnings
RECOVERY PLAY: Stock looks expensive now (7x PE), but valuation improves significantly next year (5x PE) as earnings recover.
Trailing PE: 7.17 | Current EPS (TTM): $0.95
Bull Case
$9.78
(+46%)
Analyst growth 30.5%, PE expands to 7.9
Base Case
$8.89
(+32%)
Market implied 30.5%, PE stable at 7.2
Bear Case
$4.63
(-31%)
Severe decline -20.0%, PE contracts to 6.1
These are projections based on PE multiples and EPS growth scenarios, not predictions. Actual results may vary significantly.
💡
Upside Surprise Potential
If earnings stabilize (0% growth), PE could expand from 5.4 to 5.8
Stabilization Target:
$7.19
(+7.0%)
PE Expansion Potential:
+7.0%
Share & Embed Analysis
Last updated: July 14, 2026 9:43 AM ET
Data refreshes hourly during market hours. Next update: 10:43 AM
Data refreshes hourly during market hours. Next update: 10:43 AM
🔥 Top Stocks Breaking Out Now
| Ticker | Score | Recommendation | Change % |
|---|
Technical Signals Check
Is ORC showing a specific setup today?
Insider Activity (6 Months)
0
Buys
0
Sells
0
Net
NEUTRAL
Top Rated REIT - Mortgage Stocks
Top-rated stocks in REIT - Mortgage by analyst ratings.
| Stock | Analyst Consensus | Analyst Target | Tradestie Score |
|---|---|---|---|
|
RITM
Rithm Capital Corp. |
STRONG BUY
11 analysts |
$13 | 58 HOLD |
|
NLY
Annaly Capital Managemen… |
BUY
14 analysts |
$24 | 60 HOLD |
|
FBRT
Franklin BSP Realty Trus… |
STRONG BUY
5 analysts |
$13 | 54 HOLD |
|
LADR
Ladder Capital Corp Clas… |
STRONG BUY
6 analysts |
$12 | 59 HOLD |
|
AOMR
Angel Oak Mortgage Inc |
STRONG BUY
7 analysts |
$11 | 62 BUY |
