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OWL Stock Analysis: Buy, Sell, or Hold?

OWL - Blue Owl Capital Inc.

INVESTMENT ADVICE
$11.67
0.27 (2.37%) ▲
5d: -4.5%
30d: +26.71%
90d: +14.41%
WAIT
LOW Confidence
Protect Your OWL Gains
Analysis Updated: Aug 21, 2026 12:00 AM ET
Earnings: Jul 30, 2026 0d
Smart Money Distribution

Options positioning is turning defensive after a sharp run-up - a pattern consistent with institutional profit-taking. View Scanner →

Signal fired Aug 7, 2026 at $11.87 · last confirmed Aug 18, 2026

Strength: 8.4/10

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Interactive Price Chart (1 Month)

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💡
Bottom Line:
ℹī¸ NEUTRAL: OWL is fairly priced but lacks strong directional signals. At 2.0% expected growth, valuation appears fair. Wait for clearer setup or better entry on dips.
See Forward Earnings Fair Value & Price Prediction →

Long-Term Wealth Forecast (2031)

Based on Analyst Consensus Growth & Historical Valuation

0% (Stagnation) 50% (Hyper Growth)
EST. PRICE IN 2031
$15.91
Based on 7.8% avg growth
INTRINSIC VALUE TODAY
$9.88
Trading above historical range

How this is calculated: We use a Growth Decay Model: starting with analyst consensus growth (adjusted above) and gradually slowing it down to a long-term terminal rate (4%) by Year 5. This provides a more realistic valuation than assuming constant hyper-growth. We then apply a 11.1x Exit PE.

View Full DCF Model

In-depth Analysis How we analyze

Valuation Analysis: OWL is currently trading at $11.67, which is considered slightly high relative to its 30-day fair value range of $9.53 to $11.84. The stock's valuation (Forward PE: 11.8) is in line with its historical norms (11.1). At these levels, the market is pricing in 2.0% annual earnings growth.

Technical Outlook: Technically, OWL is in a uptrend. The price is currently testing key support at $11.38. A bounce from this level would confirm strength, while a break below could signal further downside.

Market Sentiment: OWL scores 28/100 on our bottoming-setup gauge. Note this measures entry quality, not trend direction — a low score can mean the chart is extended after a strong run (don't chase) or still falling without stabilization; better entries typically come after a pullback toward the 20-day average. Current signals suggest waiting for a better entry point before initiating new positions.

Quick Decision Summary

Current Position SLIGHTLY HIGH
Historical Trading Range $9.53 - $11.84
Company Quality Score 48/100 (HOLD)
Volume Confirmation HIGH
Confidence Score 41.4%

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All Signals

  • BEARISH: Weak technical setup (28/100)
  • BULLISH: High volume confirmation
  • NEUTRAL: Near Wall St target ($12.62)
  • BULLISH: Expecting earnings turnaround to 2.0% growth with 7.1% revenue growth
  • WARNING: Composite score 48/100 in the bottom quintile — this cohort historically lags the market

Trading Range Analysis

30-Day Trading Range $9.53 - $11.84
Current vs Trading Range SLIGHTLY HIGH

Support & Resistance Levels

Support Level $11.38
Resistance Level $12.77
Current Trend Uptrend
Technical data as of Aug 21, 2026

Fundamental Context

Forward P/E (Next Year Est.) 11.80
Wall Street Target $12.62 (+8.1%)
Revenue Growth (YoY) 7.1%
Earnings Growth (YoY) -14.0%
Profit Margin 2.7%
Valuation Premium vs History +2.0% premium
PE vs Historical 11.8 vs 11.1 FAIR
Market-Implied Price Targets If current PE multiple persists
Implied Growth (YoY): +2.0% (market-implied from PE analysis)
1-Year Target $11.90 (+2%)
2-Year Target $12.14 (+4%)
3-Year Target $12.38 (+6%)
3-Yr Target (if PE normalizes) (PE: 12→11) PE COMPRESSION $11.65 (0%)
Earnings growth offset by PE compression
3-Year Scenarios Using analyst projected EPS growth
Bull: (PE: 20.1, Growth: 11.5%) $27.50 (+136%)
Base: (SPY PE: 11.8, Growth: 11.5%) $16.17 (+39%)
Bear: (PE: 10.0, Growth: 11.5%) $13.75 (+18%)
📈 Valuation based on Current Earnings
RECOVERY PLAY: Stock looks expensive now (13x PE), but valuation improves significantly next year (12x PE) as earnings recover.
Forward PE: 13.37 | Forward EPS (Implied): $0.87
Bull Case $14.09 (+21%)
Analyst growth 15.0%, PE expands to 14.0
Base Case $11.67 (0%)
Market implied 0.0%, PE stable at 13.4
Bear Case $8.93 (-24%)
Severe decline -15.0%, PE contracts to 12.0
These are projections based on PE multiples and EPS growth scenarios, not predictions. Actual results may vary significantly.
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Last updated: August 23, 2026 11:38 AM ET
Data refreshes hourly during market hours. Next update: 12:38 PM
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Technical Signals Check

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Insider Activity (6 Months)
0
Buys
0
Sells
0
Net
NEUTRAL

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Advanced OWL Option Strategies

Professional options setups generated by AI based on today's OWL price and gamma walls.

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