PAG Stock Analysis: Buy, Sell, or Hold?
PAG - Penske Automotive Group, Inc.
$217.01
-0.84 (-0.39%)
▼
5d:
+0.06%
30d:
-1.63%
90d:
+29.66%
HOLD
MODERATE Confidence
Analysis Updated: Aug 28, 2026 12:00 AM ET
Earnings: Jul 29, 2026
0d
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Interactive Price Chart (1 Month)
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Bottom Line:
📊 HOLD: PAG trades at premium valuation expecting 7.7% growth. Hold existing positions but don't chase. Wait for better entry.
📊 HOLD: PAG trades at premium valuation expecting 7.7% growth. Hold existing positions but don't chase. Wait for better entry.
Long-Term Wealth Forecast (2031)
Based on Analyst Consensus Growth & Historical Valuation
0% (Stagnation)
50% (Hyper Growth)
EST. PRICE IN 2031
$212.51
Based on 4.2% avg growth
INTRINSIC VALUE TODAY
$131.95
Trading above historical range
How this is calculated: We use a Growth Decay Model: starting with analyst consensus growth (adjusted above) and gradually slowing it down to a long-term terminal rate (4%) by Year 5. This provides a more realistic valuation than assuming constant hyper-growth. We then apply a 12.2x Exit PE.
In-depth Analysis How we analyze
Valuation Analysis: PAG is currently trading at $217.01, which is considered fair relative to its 30-day fair value range of $212.41 to $221.36. From a valuation perspective, the stock is trading at a premium (Forward PE: 15.3) compared to its historical average (12.2). At these levels, the market is pricing in 7.7% annual earnings growth.
Technical Outlook: Technically, PAG is in a strong uptrend. The price is currently testing key support at $216.13. A bounce from this level would confirm strength, while a break below could signal further downside.
Market Sentiment: The stock scores a mixed 51/100 on our bottoming-setup gauge, with only partial signs of a stabilized entry point. In the options market, Implied Volatility is low (6th percentile), suggesting options premiums are relatively cheap. This makes it an attractive time for long options strategies if you have a directional bias. The stock is fairly positioned - fine to hold existing positions or accumulate slowly on dips, but not an urgent buy.
Technical Outlook: Technically, PAG is in a strong uptrend. The price is currently testing key support at $216.13. A bounce from this level would confirm strength, while a break below could signal further downside.
Market Sentiment: The stock scores a mixed 51/100 on our bottoming-setup gauge, with only partial signs of a stabilized entry point. In the options market, Implied Volatility is low (6th percentile), suggesting options premiums are relatively cheap. This makes it an attractive time for long options strategies if you have a directional bias. The stock is fairly positioned - fine to hold existing positions or accumulate slowly on dips, but not an urgent buy.
Quick Decision Summary
Current Position
FAIR
Historical Trading Range
$212.41 -
$221.36
Company Quality Score
56/100
(HOLD)
Options IV Signal
6th percentile
(LOW)
Volume Confirmation
HIGH
Confidence Score
76.5%
Protect Your Profits
Holding PAG? Use our AI-powered strategies to protect your downside while keeping your long-term position.
View Profit Protection PlanAll Signals
- NEUTRAL: Price in fair range
- BULLISH: Options cheap (IV 6th percentile)
- NEUTRAL: Mixed technical signals (51/100)
- BULLISH: High volume confirmation
- NEUTRAL: Near Wall St target ($211.88)
- BULLISH: Expecting earnings turnaround to 7.7% growth with 6.0% revenue growth
- NEUTRAL: Bottoming setup forming (51/100) — watch for confirmation
Trading Range Analysis
30-Day Trading Range
$212.41 -
$221.36
Current vs Trading Range
FAIR
Expected Move (7 Days)
±$5.16
(2.4%)
Support & Resistance Levels
Support Level
$216.14
Resistance Level
$221.00
Current Trend
Strong Uptrend
Technical data as of
Aug 28, 2026
Fundamental Context
Forward P/E (Next Year Est.)
15.30
Wall Street Target
$211.88
(-2.4%)
Revenue Growth (YoY)
6.0%
Earnings Growth (YoY)
-1.7%
Profit Margin
2.8%
Valuation Premium vs History
+7.7% premium
PE vs Historical
15.3 vs 12.2
STRETCHED
Market-Implied Price Targets
If current PE multiple persists
Implied Growth (YoY):
+7.7%
(market-implied from PE analysis)
1-Year Target
$233.72
(+8%)
2-Year Target
$251.72
(+16%)
3-Year Target
$271.10
(+25%)
3-Yr Target (if PE normalizes)
(PE: 15→12)
PE COMPRESSION
$216.11
(0%)
Earnings growth offset by PE compression
3-Year Scenarios
Using analyst projected EPS growth
Bull:
(PE: 20.1, Growth: 4.4%)
$323.45
(+49%)
Base:
(SPY PE: 15.3, Growth: 4.4%)
$246.64
(+14%)
Bear:
(PE: 12.2, Growth: 4.4%)
$196.62
(-9%)
📈
Valuation based on Current Earnings
RECOVERY PLAY: Stock looks expensive now (16x PE), but valuation improves significantly next year (15x PE) as earnings recover.
Trailing PE: 15.84 | Current EPS (TTM): $13.75
Bull Case
$247.13
(+14%)
Analyst growth 3.1%, PE expands to 17.4
Base Case
$224.66
(+4%)
Market implied 3.1%, PE stable at 15.8
Bear Case
$148.14
(-32%)
Severe decline -20.0%, PE contracts to 13.5
These are projections based on PE multiples and EPS growth scenarios, not predictions. Actual results may vary significantly.
Share & Embed Analysis
Last updated: August 29, 2026 2:26 AM ET
Data refreshes hourly during market hours. Next update: 3:26 AM
Data refreshes hourly during market hours. Next update: 3:26 AM
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Technical Signals Check
Is PAG showing a specific setup today?
Insider Activity (6 Months)
0
Buys
0
Sells
0
Net
NEUTRAL
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Advanced PAG Option Strategies
Professional options setups generated by AI based on today's PAG price and gamma walls.
