PAG Stock Analysis: Buy, Sell, or Hold?
PAG - Penske Automotive Group, Inc.
$202.66
-2.08 (-1.02%)
▼
5d:
+4.32%
30d:
+12.12%
90d:
+29.89%
BUY
MODERATE Confidence
Analysis Updated: Jul 17, 2026 12:00 AM ET
Earnings: Jul 29, 2026
9d
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Interactive Price Chart (1 Month)
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Bottom Line:
💡 BUY OPPORTUNITY: PAG shows positive signals but monitor for confirmation. Market pricing in 6.7% growth. Moderate conviction.
💡 BUY OPPORTUNITY: PAG shows positive signals but monitor for confirmation. Market pricing in 6.7% growth. Moderate conviction.
Long-Term Wealth Forecast (2031)
Based on Analyst Consensus Growth & Historical Valuation
0% (Stagnation)
50% (Hyper Growth)
EST. PRICE IN 2031
$212.96
Based on 4.9% avg growth
INTRINSIC VALUE TODAY
$132.23
Trading above historical range
How this is calculated: We use a Growth Decay Model: starting with analyst consensus growth (adjusted above) and gradually slowing it down to a long-term terminal rate (4%) by Year 5. This provides a more realistic valuation than assuming constant hyper-growth. We then apply a 11.9x Exit PE.
In-depth Analysis How we analyze
Valuation Analysis: PAG is currently trading at $202.66, which is considered extended relative to its 30-day fair value range of $175.79 to $193.09. From a valuation perspective, the stock is trading at a premium (Forward PE: 14.4) compared to its historical average (11.9). At these levels, the market is pricing in 6.7% annual earnings growth.
Technical Outlook: Technically, PAG is in a strong uptrend. The price is approaching resistance at $207.22. A breakout above this level would be a bullish signal, while rejection here could lead to consolidation.
Market Sentiment: PAG has a strong technical setup (60/100), with favorable trendlines, momentum, and price action for short-term traders. In the options market, Implied Volatility is low (21th percentile), suggesting options premiums are relatively cheap. This makes it an attractive time for long options strategies if you have a directional bias. Combining these factors, the current setup offers a favorable risk/reward ratio for buyers.
Technical Outlook: Technically, PAG is in a strong uptrend. The price is approaching resistance at $207.22. A breakout above this level would be a bullish signal, while rejection here could lead to consolidation.
Market Sentiment: PAG has a strong technical setup (60/100), with favorable trendlines, momentum, and price action for short-term traders. In the options market, Implied Volatility is low (21th percentile), suggesting options premiums are relatively cheap. This makes it an attractive time for long options strategies if you have a directional bias. Combining these factors, the current setup offers a favorable risk/reward ratio for buyers.
Quick Decision Summary
Current Position
EXTENDED
Historical Trading Range
$175.79 -
$193.09
Company Quality Score
65/100
(BUY)
Options IV Signal
21th percentile
(COMPLACENCY WARNING)
Volume Confirmation
HIGH
Confidence Score
68.1%
Protect Your Profits
PAG is technically overbought (RSI 73). Consider hedging now to protect against a potential pullback while keeping your upside.
View Profit Protection PlanAll Signals
- BEARISH: Price extended above range
- BULLISH: Options cheap (IV 21th percentile)
- BULLISH: Strong technical setup (60/100)
- BULLISH: High volume confirmation
- NEUTRAL: Near Wall St target ($194.60)
- BULLISH: Expecting earnings turnaround to 6.7% growth with -1.1% revenue growth
Trading Range Analysis
30-Day Trading Range
$175.79 -
$193.09
Current vs Trading Range
EXTENDED
Expected Move (7 Days)
±$9.39
(4.6%)
Support & Resistance Levels
Support Level
$176.24
Resistance Level
$207.22
Current Trend
Strong Uptrend
Technical data as of
Jul 17, 2026
Fundamental Context
Forward P/E (Next Year Est.)
14.38
Wall Street Target
$194.60
(-4.0%)
Revenue Growth (YoY)
-1.1%
Earnings Growth (YoY)
-7.8%
Profit Margin
2.9%
Valuation Premium vs History
+6.7% premium
PE vs Historical
14.4 vs 11.9
STRETCHED
Market-Implied Price Targets
If current PE multiple persists
Implied Growth (YoY):
+6.7%
(market-implied from PE analysis)
1-Year Target
$216.24
(+7%)
2-Year Target
$230.73
(+14%)
3-Year Target
$246.18
(+22%)
3-Yr Target (if PE normalizes)
(PE: 14→12)
PE COMPRESSION
$203.68
(+1%)
Earnings growth offset by PE compression
3-Year Scenarios
Using analyst projected EPS growth
Bull:
(PE: 21.0, Growth: 5.8%)
$350.73
(+73%)
Base:
(SPY PE: 14.4, Growth: 5.8%)
$240.11
(+19%)
Bear:
(PE: 11.9, Growth: 5.8%)
$198.65
(-2%)
📈
Valuation based on Current Earnings
Trailing PE: 13.98 | Current EPS (TTM): $14.33
Bull Case
$216.75
(+7%)
Analyst growth -1.7%, PE expands to 15.4
Base Case
$197.04
(-3%)
Market implied -1.7%, PE stable at 14.0
Bear Case
$136.27
(-33%)
Severe decline -20.0%, PE contracts to 11.9
These are projections based on PE multiples and EPS growth scenarios, not predictions. Actual results may vary significantly.
Share & Embed Analysis
Last updated: July 19, 2026 3:24 AM ET
Data refreshes hourly during market hours. Next update: 4:24 AM
Data refreshes hourly during market hours. Next update: 4:24 AM
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Technical Signals Check
Is PAG showing a specific setup today?
Insider Activity (6 Months)
0
Buys
0
Sells
0
Net
NEUTRAL
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Advanced PAG Option Strategies
Professional options setups generated by AI based on today's PAG price and gamma walls.
