Penske Automotive Group (PAG) Stock: Buy, Sell, or Hold?
PAG - Penske Automotive Group, Inc.
$194.22
-4.79 (-2.41%)
▼
5d:
-3.05%
30d:
-10.44%
90d:
+1.43%
WAIT
LOW Confidence
Analysis Updated: Oct 7, 2026 12:00 AM ET
Earnings: Nov 04, 2026
26d
Smart Money Accumulation
Options open interest is building while the stock consolidates - a pattern consistent with institutional accumulation. View Scanner →
Signal fired Oct 5, 2026 at $200.59 · last confirmed Oct 5, 2026
Strength: 5.5/10
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Interactive Price Chart (1 Month)
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Bottom Line:
📊 MIXED SIGNALS: PAG shows conflicting indicators. Wait for confirmation before entering.
📊 MIXED SIGNALS: PAG shows conflicting indicators. Wait for confirmation before entering.
Long-Term Wealth Forecast (2031)
Based on Analyst Consensus Growth & Historical Valuation
0% (Stagnation)
50% (Hyper Growth)
EST. PRICE IN 2031
$230.72
Based on 5.3% avg growth
INTRINSIC VALUE TODAY
$143.26
Trading above historical range
How this is calculated: We use a Growth Decay Model: starting with analyst consensus growth (adjusted above) and gradually slowing it down to a long-term terminal rate (4%) by Year 5. This provides a more realistic valuation than assuming constant hyper-growth. We then apply a 12.6x Exit PE.
In-depth Analysis How we analyze
Valuation Analysis: PAG is currently trading at $194.22, which is considered oversold relative to its 30-day fair value range of $203.70 to $217.99. The stock's valuation (Forward PE: 13.7) is in line with its historical norms (12.6). At these levels, the market is pricing in 2.8% annual earnings growth.
Technical Outlook: Technically, PAG is in a strong uptrend. The price is currently testing key support at $192.31. A bounce from this level would confirm strength, while a break below could signal further downside.
Market Sentiment: PAG scores 18/100 on our bottoming-setup gauge. Note this measures entry quality, not trend direction — a low score can mean the chart is extended after a strong run (don't chase) or still falling without stabilization; better entries typically come after a pullback toward the 20-day average. In the options market, Implied Volatility is low (10th percentile), suggesting options premiums are relatively cheap. This makes it an attractive time for long options strategies if you have a directional bias. Current signals suggest waiting for a better entry point before initiating new positions.
Technical Outlook: Technically, PAG is in a strong uptrend. The price is currently testing key support at $192.31. A bounce from this level would confirm strength, while a break below could signal further downside.
Market Sentiment: PAG scores 18/100 on our bottoming-setup gauge. Note this measures entry quality, not trend direction — a low score can mean the chart is extended after a strong run (don't chase) or still falling without stabilization; better entries typically come after a pullback toward the 20-day average. In the options market, Implied Volatility is low (10th percentile), suggesting options premiums are relatively cheap. This makes it an attractive time for long options strategies if you have a directional bias. Current signals suggest waiting for a better entry point before initiating new positions.
Quick Decision Summary
Current Position
OVERSOLD
Historical Trading Range
$203.70 -
$217.99
Company Quality Score
48/100
(HOLD)
Options IV Signal
10th percentile
(COMPLACENCY WARNING)
Volume Confirmation
HIGH
Confidence Score
64.2%
Protect Your Profits
Holding PAG? Use our AI-powered strategies to protect your downside while keeping your long-term position.
View Profit Protection PlanAll Signals
- BULLISH: Price oversold vs 30-day range
- BULLISH: Options cheap (IV 10th percentile)
- BEARISH: Weak technical setup (18/100)
- BULLISH: High volume confirmation
- NEUTRAL: Near Wall St target ($209.29)
- BULLISH: Expecting earnings turnaround to 2.8% growth with 6.0% revenue growth
- WARNING: Composite score 48/100 in the bottom quintile — this cohort historically lags the market
Trading Range Analysis
30-Day Trading Range
$203.70 -
$217.99
Current vs Trading Range
OVERSOLD
Expected Move (7 Days)
±$5.23
(2.7%)
Support & Resistance Levels
Support Level
$192.31
Resistance Level
$211.93
Current Trend
Strong Uptrend
Technical data as of
Oct 7, 2026
Fundamental Context
Forward P/E (Next Year Est.)
13.70
Wall Street Target
$209.29
(+7.8%)
Revenue Growth (YoY)
6.0%
Earnings Growth (YoY)
-1.7%
Profit Margin
2.8%
Valuation Premium vs History
+2.8% premium
PE vs Historical
13.7 vs 12.6
FAIR
Market-Implied Price Targets
If current PE multiple persists
Implied Growth (YoY):
+2.8%
(market-implied from PE analysis)
1-Year Target
$199.66
(+3%)
2-Year Target
$205.25
(+6%)
3-Year Target
$211.00
(+9%)
3-Yr Target (if PE normalizes)
(PE: 14→13)
PE COMPRESSION
$194.10
(0%)
Earnings growth offset by PE compression
3-Year Scenarios
Using analyst projected EPS growth
Bull:
(PE: 19.7, Growth: 6.5%)
$337.37
(+74%)
Base:
(SPY PE: 13.7, Growth: 6.5%)
$234.56
(+21%)
Bear:
(PE: 11.6, Growth: 6.5%)
$199.38
(+3%)
📈
Valuation based on Current Earnings
RECOVERY PLAY: Stock looks expensive now (14x PE), but valuation improves significantly next year (14x PE) as earnings recover.
Trailing PE: 14.10 | Current EPS (TTM): $14.11
Bull Case
$220.00
(+13%)
Analyst growth 0.5%, PE expands to 15.5
Base Case
$200.00
(+3%)
Market implied 0.5%, PE stable at 14.1
Bear Case
$135.33
(-30%)
Severe decline -20.0%, PE contracts to 12.0
These are projections based on PE multiples and EPS growth scenarios, not predictions. Actual results may vary significantly.
Share & Embed Analysis
Last updated: October 08, 2026 8:20 AM ET
Data refreshes hourly during market hours. Next update: 9:20 AM
Data refreshes hourly during market hours. Next update: 9:20 AM
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Technical Signals Check
Is PAG showing a specific setup today?
Insider Activity (6 Months)
0
Buys
0
Sells
0
Net
NEUTRAL
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Advanced PAG Option Strategies
Professional options setups generated by AI based on today's PAG price and gamma walls.
