Penske Automotive Group (PAG) Stock: Buy, Sell, or Hold?
PAG - Penske Automotive Group, Inc.
$212.18
0.03 (0.01%)
â˛
5d:
+0.06%
30d:
+5.15%
90d:
-3.82%
WAIT
LOW Confidence
Analysis Updated: Oct 27, 2026 12:00 AM ET
Earnings: Oct 28, 2026
0d
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Interactive Price Chart (1 Month)
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Bottom Line:
âšī¸ NEUTRAL: PAG is fairly priced but lacks strong directional signals. At 5.9% expected growth, valuation appears stretched. Wait for clearer setup or better entry on dips.
âšī¸ NEUTRAL: PAG is fairly priced but lacks strong directional signals. At 5.9% expected growth, valuation appears stretched. Wait for clearer setup or better entry on dips.
Long-Term Wealth Forecast (2031)
Based on Analyst Consensus Growth & Historical Valuation
0% (Stagnation)
50% (Hyper Growth)
EST. PRICE IN 2031
$228.25
Based on 5.1% avg growth
INTRINSIC VALUE TODAY
$141.72
Trading above historical range
How this is calculated: We use a Growth Decay Model: starting with analyst consensus growth (adjusted above) and gradually slowing it down to a long-term terminal rate (4%) by Year 5. This provides a more realistic valuation than assuming constant hyper-growth. We then apply a 12.7x Exit PE.
In-depth Analysis How we analyze
Valuation Analysis: PAG is currently trading at $212.18, which is considered slightly high relative to its 30-day fair value range of $199.01 to $212.44. From a valuation perspective, the stock is trading at a premium (Forward PE: 15.1) compared to its historical average (12.7). At these levels, the market is pricing in 5.9% annual earnings growth.
Technical Outlook: Technically, PAG is in a strong uptrend. The price is approaching resistance at $213.00. A breakout above this level would be a bullish signal, while rejection here could lead to consolidation.
Market Sentiment: PAG scores 23/100 on our bottoming-setup gauge. Note this measures entry quality, not trend direction — a low score can mean the chart is extended after a strong run (don't chase) or still falling without stabilization; better entries typically come after a pullback toward the 20-day average. Current signals suggest waiting for a better entry point before initiating new positions.
Technical Outlook: Technically, PAG is in a strong uptrend. The price is approaching resistance at $213.00. A breakout above this level would be a bullish signal, while rejection here could lead to consolidation.
Market Sentiment: PAG scores 23/100 on our bottoming-setup gauge. Note this measures entry quality, not trend direction — a low score can mean the chart is extended after a strong run (don't chase) or still falling without stabilization; better entries typically come after a pullback toward the 20-day average. Current signals suggest waiting for a better entry point before initiating new positions.
Quick Decision Summary
Current Position
SLIGHTLY HIGH
Historical Trading Range
$199.01 -
$212.44
Company Quality Score
44/100
(HOLD)
Options IV Signal
32th percentile
(NORMAL)
Volume Confirmation
HIGH
Confidence Score
46.9%
Protect Your Profits
Holding PAG? Use our AI-powered strategies to protect your downside while keeping your long-term position.
View Profit Protection PlanAll Signals
- NEUTRAL: Options fairly priced (IV 32th percentile)
- BEARISH: Weak technical setup (23/100)
- BULLISH: High volume confirmation
- NEUTRAL: Near Wall St target ($210.57)
- BULLISH: Expecting earnings turnaround to 5.9% growth with 6.0% revenue growth
- WARNING: Composite score 44/100 in the bottom quintile â this cohort historically lags the market
Trading Range Analysis
30-Day Trading Range
$199.01 -
$212.44
Current vs Trading Range
SLIGHTLY HIGH
Expected Move (7 Days)
Âą$10.37
(4.9%)
Support & Resistance Levels
Support Level
$193.79
Resistance Level
$213.00
Current Trend
Strong Uptrend
Technical data as of
Oct 27, 2026
Fundamental Context
Forward P/E (Next Year Est.)
15.10
Wall Street Target
$210.57
(-0.7%)
Revenue Growth (YoY)
6.0%
Earnings Growth (YoY)
-1.7%
Profit Margin
2.8%
Valuation Premium vs History
+5.9% premium
PE vs Historical
15.1 vs 12.7
STRETCHED
Market-Implied Price Targets
If current PE multiple persists
Implied Growth (YoY):
+5.9%
(market-implied from PE analysis)
1-Year Target
$224.67
(+6%)
2-Year Target
$237.92
(+12%)
3-Year Target
$251.96
(+19%)
3-Yr Target (if PE normalizes)
(PE: 15â13)
PE COMPRESSION
$211.92
(0%)
Earnings growth offset by PE compression
3-Year Scenarios
Using analyst projected EPS growth
Bull:
(PE: 19.9, Growth: 6.1%)
$333.30
(+57%)
Base:
(SPY PE: 15.1, Growth: 6.1%)
$253.41
(+19%)
Bear:
(PE: 12.7, Growth: 6.1%)
$213.14
(+1%)
đ
Valuation based on Current Earnings
Trailing PE: 14.91 | Current EPS (TTM): $14.22
Bull Case
$230.51
(+9%)
Analyst growth -1.2%, PE expands to 16.4
Base Case
$209.55
(-1%)
Market implied -1.2%, PE stable at 14.9
Bear Case
$144.22
(-32%)
Severe decline -20.0%, PE contracts to 12.7
These are projections based on PE multiples and EPS growth scenarios, not predictions. Actual results may vary significantly.
Share & Embed Analysis
Last updated: October 28, 2026 10:18 AM ET
Data refreshes hourly during market hours. Next update: 11:18 AM
Data refreshes hourly during market hours. Next update: 11:18 AM
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Technical Signals Check
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Insider Activity (6 Months)
0
Buys
0
Sells
0
Net
NEUTRAL
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Professional options setups generated by AI based on today's PAG price and gamma walls.
