PAX Stock Analysis: Buy, Sell, or Hold?
PAX - Patria Investments Limited Class A Common Shares
$10.82
-0.15 (-1.37%)
▼
5d:
+0.19%
30d:
-1.64%
90d:
-16.19%
HOLD
MODERATE Confidence
Analysis Updated: Jul 31, 2026 12:00 AM ET
Earnings: Aug 07, 2026
3d
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Interactive Price Chart (1 Month)
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Bottom Line:
📊 HOLD: PAX shows mixed signals. Fine to hold existing positions. Not urgent to buy or sell.
📊 HOLD: PAX shows mixed signals. Fine to hold existing positions. Not urgent to buy or sell.
Long-Term Wealth Forecast (2031)
Based on Analyst Consensus Growth & Historical Valuation
0% (Stagnation)
50% (Hyper Growth)
EST. PRICE IN 2031
$19.03
Based on 8.7% avg growth
INTRINSIC VALUE TODAY
$11.82
8.4% Margin of Safety
How this is calculated: We use a Growth Decay Model: starting with analyst consensus growth (adjusted above) and gradually slowing it down to a long-term terminal rate (4%) by Year 5. This provides a more realistic valuation than assuming constant hyper-growth. We then apply a 8.2x Exit PE.
In-depth Analysis How we analyze
Valuation Analysis: PAX is currently trading at $10.82, which is considered oversold relative to its 30-day fair value range of $10.85 to $11.13. From a valuation perspective, the stock is trading at a discount (Forward PE: 7.0) compared to its historical average (8.2). Remarkably, the market is currently pricing in an annual earnings decline of 4.9% over the next few years. This aligns with recent fundamental challenges.
Technical Outlook: Technically, PAX is in a downtrend. The price is currently testing key support at $10.55. A bounce from this level would confirm strength, while a break below could signal further downside.
Market Sentiment: PAX has a weak technical setup (25/100), with bearish trendlines and momentum suggesting caution for short-term entries. Wall Street analysts see significant upside, with an average price target of $15.57 (+43.9%). The stock is fairly positioned - fine to hold existing positions or accumulate slowly on dips, but not an urgent buy.
Technical Outlook: Technically, PAX is in a downtrend. The price is currently testing key support at $10.55. A bounce from this level would confirm strength, while a break below could signal further downside.
Market Sentiment: PAX has a weak technical setup (25/100), with bearish trendlines and momentum suggesting caution for short-term entries. Wall Street analysts see significant upside, with an average price target of $15.57 (+43.9%). The stock is fairly positioned - fine to hold existing positions or accumulate slowly on dips, but not an urgent buy.
Quick Decision Summary
Current Position
OVERSOLD
Historical Trading Range
$10.85 -
$11.13
Company Quality Score
42/100
(HOLD)
Volume Confirmation
HIGH
Confidence Score
57.1%
All Signals
- BULLISH: Price oversold vs 30-day range
- BEARISH: Weak technical setup (25/100)
- BULLISH: High volume confirmation
- BULLISH: Trading 43.9% below Wall St target ($15.57)
Trading Range Analysis
30-Day Trading Range
$10.85 -
$11.13
Current vs Trading Range
OVERSOLD
Support & Resistance Levels
Support Level
$10.55
Resistance Level
$11.39
Current Trend
Downtrend
Technical data as of
Jul 31, 2026
Fundamental Context
Forward P/E (Next Year Est.)
7.04
Wall Street Target
$15.57
(+43.9%)
Revenue Growth (YoY)
22.0%
Earnings Growth (YoY)
-86.3%
Profit Margin
18.1%
Valuation Discount vs History
-4.9% cheaper
PE vs Historical
7.0 vs 8.2
CHEAP
Market-Implied Price Targets
If current PE multiple persists
Implied Growth (YoY):
-4.9%
(market-implied from PE analysis)
1-Year Target
$10.29
(-5%)
2-Year Target
$9.79
(-10%)
3-Year Target
$9.31
(-14%)
3-Yr Target (if PE normalizes)
(PE: 7→8)
$10.84
(+0%)
3-Year Scenarios
Using analyst projected EPS growth
Bull:
(PE: 20.7, Growth: 13.3%)
$46.38
(+329%)
Base:
(SPY PE: 7.0, Growth: 13.3%)
$15.76
(+46%)
Bear:
(PE: 6.0, Growth: 13.3%)
$13.39
(+24%)
📈
Valuation based on Current Earnings
RECOVERY PLAY: Stock looks expensive now (24x PE), but valuation improves significantly next year (7x PE) as earnings recover.
Trailing PE: 23.85 | Current EPS (TTM): $0.46
Bull Case
$24.13
(+123%)
Analyst growth 100.0%, PE expands to 26.2
Base Case
$21.94
(+103%)
Market implied 100.0%, PE stable at 23.9
Bear Case
$7.46
(-31%)
Severe decline -20.0%, PE contracts to 20.3
These are projections based on PE multiples and EPS growth scenarios, not predictions. Actual results may vary significantly.
💡
Upside Surprise Potential
If earnings stabilize (0% growth), PE could expand from 7.0 to 8.2
Stabilization Target:
$12.60
(+16.4%)
PE Expansion Potential:
+16.4%
Share & Embed Analysis
Last updated: August 02, 2026 11:30 PM ET
Data refreshes hourly during market hours. Next update: 12:30 AM
Data refreshes hourly during market hours. Next update: 12:30 AM
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Technical Signals Check
Is PAX showing a specific setup today?
Insider Activity (6 Months)
0
Buys
0
Sells
0
Net
NEUTRAL
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