PAX Stock Analysis: Buy, Sell, or Hold?
PAX - Patria Investments Limited Class A Common Shares
$11.03
-0.18 (-1.61%)
▼
5d:
-4.75%
30d:
-1.25%
90d:
-4.17%
HOLD
MODERATE Confidence
Analysis Updated: Jun 23, 2026 12:00 AM ET
Earnings: Aug 07, 2026
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Interactive Price Chart (1 Month)
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Bottom Line:
📊 HOLD: PAX shows mixed signals. Fine to hold existing positions. Not urgent to buy or sell.
📊 HOLD: PAX shows mixed signals. Fine to hold existing positions. Not urgent to buy or sell.
Long-Term Wealth Forecast (2031)
Based on Analyst Consensus Growth & Historical Valuation
0% (Stagnation)
50% (Hyper Growth)
EST. PRICE IN 2031
$19.82
Based on 8.8% avg growth
INTRINSIC VALUE TODAY
$12.31
10.4% Margin of Safety
How this is calculated: We use a Growth Decay Model: starting with analyst consensus growth (adjusted above) and gradually slowing it down to a long-term terminal rate (4%) by Year 5. This provides a more realistic valuation than assuming constant hyper-growth. We then apply a 8.4x Exit PE.
In-depth Analysis How we analyze
Valuation Analysis: PAX is currently trading at $11.03, which is considered oversold relative to its 30-day fair value range of $11.14 to $11.56. From a valuation perspective, the stock is trading at a discount (Forward PE: 7.1) compared to its historical average (8.4). Remarkably, the market is currently pricing in an annual earnings decline of 5.3% over the next few years. This aligns with recent fundamental challenges.
Technical Outlook: Technically, PAX is in a strong downtrend. The price is currently testing key support at $11.02. A bounce from this level would confirm strength, while a break below could signal further downside.
Market Sentiment: PAX has a weak technical setup (25/100), with bearish trendlines and momentum suggesting caution for short-term entries. Wall Street analysts see significant upside, with an average price target of $15.57 (+41.2%). The stock is fairly positioned - fine to hold existing positions or accumulate slowly on dips, but not an urgent buy.
Technical Outlook: Technically, PAX is in a strong downtrend. The price is currently testing key support at $11.02. A bounce from this level would confirm strength, while a break below could signal further downside.
Market Sentiment: PAX has a weak technical setup (25/100), with bearish trendlines and momentum suggesting caution for short-term entries. Wall Street analysts see significant upside, with an average price target of $15.57 (+41.2%). The stock is fairly positioned - fine to hold existing positions or accumulate slowly on dips, but not an urgent buy.
Quick Decision Summary
Current Position
OVERSOLD
Historical Trading Range
$11.14 -
$11.56
Company Quality Score
56/100
(HOLD)
Volume Confirmation
HIGH
Confidence Score
57.1%
All Signals
- BULLISH: Price oversold vs 30-day range
- BEARISH: Weak technical setup (25/100)
- BULLISH: High volume confirmation
- BULLISH: Trading 41.2% below Wall St target ($15.57)
Trading Range Analysis
30-Day Trading Range
$11.14 -
$11.56
Current vs Trading Range
OVERSOLD
Support & Resistance Levels
Support Level
$11.02
Resistance Level
$11.83
Current Trend
Strong Downtrend
Technical data as of
Jun 9, 2026
Fundamental Context
Forward P/E (Next Year Est.)
7.11
Wall Street Target
$15.57
(+41.2%)
Revenue Growth (YoY)
22.0%
Earnings Growth (YoY)
-85.2%
Profit Margin
18.1%
Valuation Discount vs History
-5.3% cheaper
PE vs Historical
7.1 vs 8.4
CHEAP
Market-Implied Price Targets
If current PE multiple persists
Implied Growth (YoY):
-5.3%
(market-implied from PE analysis)
1-Year Target
$10.45
(-5%)
2-Year Target
$9.89
(-10%)
3-Year Target
$9.37
(-15%)
3-Yr Target (if PE normalizes)
(PE: 7→8)
$11.07
(+0%)
3-Year Scenarios
Using analyst projected EPS growth
Bull:
(PE: 21.8, Growth: 13.6%)
$49.55
(+349%)
Base:
(SPY PE: 7.1, Growth: 13.6%)
$16.17
(+47%)
Bear:
(PE: 6.0, Growth: 13.6%)
$13.75
(+25%)
📈
Valuation based on Current Earnings
RECOVERY PLAY: Stock looks expensive now (21x PE), but valuation improves significantly next year (7x PE) as earnings recover.
Trailing PE: 21.15 | Current EPS (TTM): $0.53
Bull Case
$24.66
(+124%)
Analyst growth 100.0%, PE expands to 23.3
Base Case
$22.42
(+103%)
Market implied 100.0%, PE stable at 21.2
Bear Case
$7.62
(-31%)
Severe decline -20.0%, PE contracts to 18.0
These are projections based on PE multiples and EPS growth scenarios, not predictions. Actual results may vary significantly.
💡
Upside Surprise Potential
If earnings stabilize (0% growth), PE could expand from 7.1 to 8.4
Stabilization Target:
$13.03
(+18.2%)
PE Expansion Potential:
+18.2%
Share & Embed Analysis
Last updated: June 23, 2026 7:39 PM ET
Data refreshes hourly during market hours. Next update: 8:39 PM
Data refreshes hourly during market hours. Next update: 8:39 PM
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Technical Signals Check
Is PAX showing a specific setup today?
Insider Activity (6 Months)
0
Buys
0
Sells
0
Net
NEUTRAL
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