PAX Stock Analysis: Buy, Sell, or Hold?
PAX - Patria Investments Limited Class A Common Shares
$10.91
-0.14 (-1.27%)
▼
5d:
-2.15%
30d:
-2.76%
90d:
-11.37%
BUY
HIGH Confidence
Analysis Updated: Jul 13, 2026 12:00 AM ET
Earnings: Aug 07, 2026
24d
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Interactive Price Chart (1 Month)
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Bottom Line:
✅ BUY SIGNAL: PAX trading at deep discount. Market pricing in -5.1% annual earnings decline, creating value opportunity for patient investors.
✅ BUY SIGNAL: PAX trading at deep discount. Market pricing in -5.1% annual earnings decline, creating value opportunity for patient investors.
Long-Term Wealth Forecast (2031)
Based on Analyst Consensus Growth & Historical Valuation
0% (Stagnation)
50% (Hyper Growth)
EST. PRICE IN 2031
$19.34
Based on 8.7% avg growth
INTRINSIC VALUE TODAY
$12.01
9.1% Margin of Safety
How this is calculated: We use a Growth Decay Model: starting with analyst consensus growth (adjusted above) and gradually slowing it down to a long-term terminal rate (4%) by Year 5. This provides a more realistic valuation than assuming constant hyper-growth. We then apply a 8.3x Exit PE.
In-depth Analysis How we analyze
Valuation Analysis: PAX is currently trading at $10.91, which is considered oversold relative to its 30-day fair value range of $10.93 to $11.45. From a valuation perspective, the stock is trading at a discount (Forward PE: 7.1) compared to its historical average (8.3). Remarkably, the market is currently pricing in an annual earnings decline of 5.1% over the next few years. This aligns with recent fundamental challenges.
Technical Outlook: Technically, PAX is in a strong downtrend. The price is currently testing key support at $11.02. A bounce from this level would confirm strength, while a break below could signal further downside.
Market Sentiment: The stock shows a mixed technical setup (45/100), with neutral trendline and momentum signals. Wall Street analysts see significant upside, with an average price target of $15.57 (+42.7%). Combining these factors, the current setup offers a favorable risk/reward ratio for buyers.
Technical Outlook: Technically, PAX is in a strong downtrend. The price is currently testing key support at $11.02. A bounce from this level would confirm strength, while a break below could signal further downside.
Market Sentiment: The stock shows a mixed technical setup (45/100), with neutral trendline and momentum signals. Wall Street analysts see significant upside, with an average price target of $15.57 (+42.7%). Combining these factors, the current setup offers a favorable risk/reward ratio for buyers.
Quick Decision Summary
Current Position
OVERSOLD
Historical Trading Range
$10.93 -
$11.45
Company Quality Score
58/100
(HOLD)
Volume Confirmation
HIGH
Confidence Score
79.5%
All Signals
- BULLISH: Price oversold vs 30-day range
- NEUTRAL: Mixed technical signals (45/100)
- BULLISH: High volume confirmation
- BULLISH: Trading 42.7% below Wall St target ($15.57)
Trading Range Analysis
30-Day Trading Range
$10.93 -
$11.45
Current vs Trading Range
OVERSOLD
Support & Resistance Levels
Support Level
$11.02
Resistance Level
$11.83
Current Trend
Strong Downtrend
Technical data as of
Jun 9, 2026
Fundamental Context
Forward P/E (Next Year Est.)
7.07
Wall Street Target
$15.57
(+42.7%)
Revenue Growth (YoY)
22.0%
Earnings Growth (YoY)
-85.2%
Profit Margin
18.1%
Valuation Discount vs History
-5.1% cheaper
PE vs Historical
7.1 vs 8.3
CHEAP
Market-Implied Price Targets
If current PE multiple persists
Implied Growth (YoY):
-5.1%
(market-implied from PE analysis)
1-Year Target
$10.35
(-5%)
2-Year Target
$9.83
(-10%)
3-Year Target
$9.32
(-15%)
3-Yr Target (if PE normalizes)
(PE: 7→8)
$10.94
(+0%)
3-Year Scenarios
Using analyst projected EPS growth
Bull:
(PE: 21.8, Growth: 13.3%)
$48.84
(+348%)
Base:
(SPY PE: 7.1, Growth: 13.3%)
$15.86
(+45%)
Bear:
(PE: 6.0, Growth: 13.3%)
$13.48
(+24%)
📈
Valuation based on Current Earnings
RECOVERY PLAY: Stock looks expensive now (21x PE), but valuation improves significantly next year (7x PE) as earnings recover.
Trailing PE: 20.85 | Current EPS (TTM): $0.53
Bull Case
$24.31
(+123%)
Analyst growth 100.0%, PE expands to 22.9
Base Case
$22.10
(+103%)
Market implied 100.0%, PE stable at 20.9
Bear Case
$7.51
(-31%)
Severe decline -20.0%, PE contracts to 17.7
These are projections based on PE multiples and EPS growth scenarios, not predictions. Actual results may vary significantly.
💡
Upside Surprise Potential
If earnings stabilize (0% growth), PE could expand from 7.1 to 8.3
Stabilization Target:
$12.80
(+17.3%)
PE Expansion Potential:
+17.3%
Share & Embed Analysis
Last updated: July 13, 2026 6:01 PM ET
Data refreshes hourly during market hours. Next update: 7:01 PM
Data refreshes hourly during market hours. Next update: 7:01 PM
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Technical Signals Check
Is PAX showing a specific setup today?
Insider Activity (6 Months)
0
Buys
0
Sells
0
Net
NEUTRAL
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