PAX Stock Analysis: Buy, Sell, or Hold?
PAX - Patria Investments Limited Class A Common Shares
$10.97
-0.25 (-2.19%)
▼
5d:
-5.31%
30d:
-1.84%
90d:
-4.74%
HOLD
MODERATE Confidence
Analysis Updated: Jun 23, 2026 12:00 AM ET
Earnings: Aug 07, 2026
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Interactive Price Chart (1 Month)
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Bottom Line:
📊 HOLD: PAX shows mixed signals. Fine to hold existing positions. Not urgent to buy or sell.
📊 HOLD: PAX shows mixed signals. Fine to hold existing positions. Not urgent to buy or sell.
Long-Term Wealth Forecast (2031)
Based on Analyst Consensus Growth & Historical Valuation
0% (Stagnation)
50% (Hyper Growth)
EST. PRICE IN 2031
$19.82
Based on 8.8% avg growth
INTRINSIC VALUE TODAY
$12.31
10.9% Margin of Safety
How this is calculated: We use a Growth Decay Model: starting with analyst consensus growth (adjusted above) and gradually slowing it down to a long-term terminal rate (4%) by Year 5. This provides a more realistic valuation than assuming constant hyper-growth. We then apply a 8.4x Exit PE.
In-depth Analysis How we analyze
Valuation Analysis: PAX is currently trading at $10.96, which is considered oversold relative to its 30-day fair value range of $11.13 to $11.56. From a valuation perspective, the stock is trading at a discount (Forward PE: 7.2) compared to its historical average (8.4). Remarkably, the market is currently pricing in an annual earnings decline of 4.9% over the next few years. This aligns with recent fundamental challenges.
Technical Outlook: Technically, PAX is in a strong downtrend. The price is currently testing key support at $11.02. A bounce from this level would confirm strength, while a break below could signal further downside.
Market Sentiment: PAX has a weak technical setup (25/100), with bearish trendlines and momentum suggesting caution for short-term entries. Wall Street analysts see significant upside, with an average price target of $15.57 (+38.9%). The stock is fairly positioned - fine to hold existing positions or accumulate slowly on dips, but not an urgent buy.
Technical Outlook: Technically, PAX is in a strong downtrend. The price is currently testing key support at $11.02. A bounce from this level would confirm strength, while a break below could signal further downside.
Market Sentiment: PAX has a weak technical setup (25/100), with bearish trendlines and momentum suggesting caution for short-term entries. Wall Street analysts see significant upside, with an average price target of $15.57 (+38.9%). The stock is fairly positioned - fine to hold existing positions or accumulate slowly on dips, but not an urgent buy.
Quick Decision Summary
Current Position
OVERSOLD
Historical Trading Range
$11.13 -
$11.56
Company Quality Score
56/100
(HOLD)
Volume Confirmation
HIGH
Confidence Score
57.1%
All Signals
- BULLISH: Price oversold vs 30-day range
- BEARISH: Weak technical setup (25/100)
- BULLISH: High volume confirmation
- BULLISH: Trading 38.9% below Wall St target ($15.57)
- CAUTION: 5-day price weakness (-5.3%) - monitor closely
Trading Range Analysis
30-Day Trading Range
$11.13 -
$11.56
Current vs Trading Range
OVERSOLD
Support & Resistance Levels
Support Level
$11.02
Resistance Level
$11.83
Current Trend
Strong Downtrend
Technical data as of
Jun 9, 2026
Fundamental Context
Forward P/E (Next Year Est.)
7.22
Wall Street Target
$15.57
(+38.9%)
Revenue Growth (YoY)
22.0%
Earnings Growth (YoY)
-85.2%
Profit Margin
18.1%
Valuation Discount vs History
-4.9% cheaper
PE vs Historical
7.2 vs 8.4
CHEAP
Market-Implied Price Targets
If current PE multiple persists
Implied Growth (YoY):
-4.9%
(market-implied from PE analysis)
1-Year Target
$10.66
(-5%)
2-Year Target
$10.14
(-10%)
3-Year Target
$9.64
(-14%)
3-Yr Target (if PE normalizes)
(PE: 7→8)
$11.21
(0%)
3-Year Scenarios
Using analyst projected EPS growth
Bull:
(PE: 21.8, Growth: 13.6%)
$49.55
(+342%)
Base:
(SPY PE: 7.2, Growth: 13.6%)
$16.44
(+47%)
Bear:
(PE: 6.1, Growth: 13.6%)
$13.97
(+25%)
📈
Valuation based on Current Earnings
RECOVERY PLAY: Stock looks expensive now (21x PE), but valuation improves significantly next year (7x PE) as earnings recover.
Trailing PE: 21.45 | Current EPS (TTM): $0.53
Bull Case
$25.01
(+123%)
Analyst growth 100.0%, PE expands to 23.6
Base Case
$22.74
(+103%)
Market implied 100.0%, PE stable at 21.5
Bear Case
$7.73
(-31%)
Severe decline -20.0%, PE contracts to 18.2
These are projections based on PE multiples and EPS growth scenarios, not predictions. Actual results may vary significantly.
💡
Upside Surprise Potential
If earnings stabilize (0% growth), PE could expand from 7.2 to 8.4
Stabilization Target:
$13.03
(+16.3%)
PE Expansion Potential:
+16.3%
Share & Embed Analysis
Last updated: June 23, 2026 2:32 PM ET
Data refreshes hourly during market hours. Next update: 3:32 PM
Data refreshes hourly during market hours. Next update: 3:32 PM
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Technical Signals Check
Is PAX showing a specific setup today?
Insider Activity (6 Months)
0
Buys
0
Sells
0
Net
NEUTRAL
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