PAX
Patria Investments Limited Class A Common Shares
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PAX Stock Analysis: Buy, Sell, or Hold?
$9.49
-0.21 (-2.12%)
▼
5d:
+1.34%
30d:
-20.09%
90d:
-14.63%
QUANTITATIVE VERDICT
BUY
HIGH Confidence (91%)
Quality Score
69/100
Position
SLIGHTLY LOW
30-Day Fair Range
$9.63 – $11.72
Position: SLIGHTLY LOW
Forward P/E & Valuation
6.7x
CHEAP
vs 7.9x historical avg
Wall Street Target
$14.83
+56.4% upside
Options IV & Volume
HIGH Vol
HIGH volume confirmation
Support / Resistance
$9.03 / $9.94
Trend: Downtrend
Executive Thesis & Bottom Line
Forward Earnings Fair Value & Price Prediction →
✅ BUY SIGNAL: PAX trading at deep discount. Market pricing in -5.5% annual earnings decline, creating value opportunity for patient investors.
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Interactive Price Chart (1 Month)
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Long-Term Wealth Forecast (2031)
Based on Analyst Consensus Growth & Historical Valuation
0% (Stagnation)
50% (Hyper Growth)
EST. PRICE IN 2031
$14.68
Based on 5.6% avg growth
INTRINSIC VALUE TODAY
$9.11
Trading above historical range
How this is calculated: We use a Growth Decay Model: starting with analyst consensus growth (adjusted above) and gradually slowing it down to a long-term terminal rate (4%) by Year 5. This provides a more realistic valuation than assuming constant hyper-growth. We then apply a 7.9x Exit PE.
In-depth Analysis How we analyze
Valuation Analysis: PAX is currently trading at $9.48, which is considered slightly low relative to its 30-day fair value range of $9.63 to $11.72. From a valuation perspective, the stock is trading at a discount (Forward PE: 6.7) compared to its historical average (7.9). Remarkably, the market is currently pricing in an annual earnings decline of 5.5% over the next few years. This aligns with recent fundamental challenges.
Technical Outlook: Technically, PAX is in a downtrend. Immediate support is located at $9.03, while resistance sits at $9.94.
Market Sentiment: PAX scores 98/100 on our bottoming-setup gauge — the chart has corrected and is stabilizing (RSI reset, momentum turning up), historically a favorable entry zone. Wall Street analysts see significant upside, with an average price target of $14.83 (+56.4%). Combining these factors, the current setup offers a favorable risk/reward ratio for buyers.
Technical Outlook: Technically, PAX is in a downtrend. Immediate support is located at $9.03, while resistance sits at $9.94.
Market Sentiment: PAX scores 98/100 on our bottoming-setup gauge — the chart has corrected and is stabilizing (RSI reset, momentum turning up), historically a favorable entry zone. Wall Street analysts see significant upside, with an average price target of $14.83 (+56.4%). Combining these factors, the current setup offers a favorable risk/reward ratio for buyers.
Quick Decision Summary
Current Position
SLIGHTLY LOW
Historical Trading Range
$9.63 -
$11.72
Company Quality Score
69/100
(BUY)
Volume Confirmation
HIGH
Confidence Score
90.5%
Trading Range & Key Levels
30-Day Trading Range
$9.63 -
$11.72
Current vs Trading Range
SLIGHTLY LOW
Support Level
$9.03
Resistance Level
$9.94
Current Trend
Downtrend
Technical data as of
Nov 10, 2026
Quantitative Signal Breakdown
- BULLISH: Price oversold vs 30-day range
- BULLISH: Strong technical setup (98/100)
- BULLISH: High volume confirmation
- BULLISH: Trading 56.4% below Wall St target ($14.83)
- BULLISH: Bottoming setup score 98/100 — corrected, stabilizing, and turning up
Fundamental Context
Forward P/E (Next Year Est.)
6.70
Wall Street Target
$14.83
(+56.4%)
Revenue Growth (YoY)
20.6%
Earnings Growth (YoY)
-67.4%
Profit Margin
12.3%
Valuation Discount vs History
-5.5% cheaper
PE vs Historical
6.7 vs 7.9
CHEAP
Market-Implied Price Targets
If current PE multiple persists
Implied Growth (YoY):
-5.5%
(market-implied from PE analysis)
1-Year Target
$8.96
(-6%)
2-Year Target
$8.47
(-11%)
3-Year Target
$8.00
(-16%)
3-Yr Target (if PE normalizes)
(PE: 7→8)
$9.44
(-1%)
3-Year Scenarios
Using analyst projected EPS growth
Bull:
(PE: 19.9, Growth: 7.2%)
$34.65
(+265%)
Base:
(SPY PE: 6.7, Growth: 7.2%)
$11.69
(+23%)
Bear:
(PE: 5.7, Growth: 7.2%)
$9.94
(+5%)
📈
Valuation based on Current Earnings
RECOVERY PLAY: Stock looks expensive now (23x PE), but valuation improves significantly next year (7x PE) as earnings recover.
Trailing PE: 22.53 | Current EPS (TTM): $0.43
Bull Case
$21.32
(+125%)
Analyst growth 100.0%, PE expands to 24.8
Base Case
$19.38
(+104%)
Market implied 100.0%, PE stable at 22.5
Bear Case
$6.59
(-31%)
Severe decline -20.0%, PE contracts to 19.2
These are projections based on PE multiples and EPS growth scenarios, not predictions. Actual results may vary significantly.
💡
Upside Surprise Potential
If earnings stabilize (0% growth), PE could expand from 6.7 to 7.9
Stabilization Target:
$11.18
(+17.9%)
PE Expansion Potential:
+17.9%
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bloggers & journalists: you are free to use our charts with attribution.Reddit & Retail Trader Sentiment (PAX)
Bullish
2 Retail Mentions
Reddit / WSB Comments
1
Bearish
StockTwits Volume
1 msgs
24h retail stream
Last Tracked
Oct 27, 2026
Daily AI digest
AI Retail Discussion Summary:
Brazilian stocks, including Patria Investments ($PAX), experienced significant declines after Luiz Inácio Lula da Silva won the presidential runoff. Bolsonaro refuses to concede and plans to challenge the result.
Key Retail Themes:
Political developments in Brazil
Impact on Brazilian stocks
Aggregated from r/wallstreetbets, r/stocks & StockTwits streams.
View All Trending Reddit & WSB Stocks →
Last updated: November 11, 2026 8:06 AM ET
Data refreshes hourly during market hours. Next update: 9:06 AM
Data refreshes hourly during market hours. Next update: 9:06 AM
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Technical Signals Check
Is PAX showing a specific setup today?
Insider Activity (6 Months)
0
Buys
0
Sells
0
Net
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