PAX Stock Analysis: Buy, Sell, or Hold?
PAX - Patria Investments Limited Class A Common Shares
$10.14
-0.01 (-0.10%)
▼
5d:
-0.1%
30d:
-9.87%
90d:
-8.65%
HOLD
LOW Confidence
Analysis Updated: Oct 1, 2026 12:00 AM ET
Earnings: Nov 03, 2026
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Interactive Price Chart (1 Month)
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Bottom Line:
📊 HOLD: PAX shows mixed signals. Fine to hold existing positions. Not urgent to buy or sell.
📊 HOLD: PAX shows mixed signals. Fine to hold existing positions. Not urgent to buy or sell.
Long-Term Wealth Forecast (2031)
Based on Analyst Consensus Growth & Historical Valuation
0% (Stagnation)
50% (Hyper Growth)
EST. PRICE IN 2031
$16.26
Based on 6.6% avg growth
INTRINSIC VALUE TODAY
$10.10
Trading above historical range
How this is calculated: We use a Growth Decay Model: starting with analyst consensus growth (adjusted above) and gradually slowing it down to a long-term terminal rate (4%) by Year 5. This provides a more realistic valuation than assuming constant hyper-growth. We then apply a 8.0x Exit PE.
In-depth Analysis How we analyze
Valuation Analysis: PAX is currently trading at $10.14, which is considered oversold relative to its 30-day fair value range of $10.26 to $11.43. From a valuation perspective, the stock is trading at a discount (Forward PE: 6.8) compared to its historical average (8.0). Remarkably, the market is currently pricing in an annual earnings decline of 5.1% over the next few years. This aligns with recent fundamental challenges.
Technical Outlook: Technically, PAX is in a downtrend. The price is currently testing key support at $9.89. A bounce from this level would confirm strength, while a break below could signal further downside.
Market Sentiment: PAX scores 93/100 on our bottoming-setup gauge — the chart has corrected and is stabilizing (RSI reset, momentum turning up), historically a favorable entry zone. Wall Street analysts see significant upside, with an average price target of $15.17 (+49.6%). The stock is fairly positioned - fine to hold existing positions or accumulate slowly on dips, but not an urgent buy.
Technical Outlook: Technically, PAX is in a downtrend. The price is currently testing key support at $9.89. A bounce from this level would confirm strength, while a break below could signal further downside.
Market Sentiment: PAX scores 93/100 on our bottoming-setup gauge — the chart has corrected and is stabilizing (RSI reset, momentum turning up), historically a favorable entry zone. Wall Street analysts see significant upside, with an average price target of $15.17 (+49.6%). The stock is fairly positioned - fine to hold existing positions or accumulate slowly on dips, but not an urgent buy.
Quick Decision Summary
Current Position
OVERSOLD
Historical Trading Range
$10.26 -
$11.43
Company Quality Score
62/100
(BUY)
Volume Confirmation
HIGH
Confidence Score
90.5%
All Signals
- BULLISH: Price oversold vs 30-day range
- BULLISH: Strong technical setup (93/100)
- BULLISH: High volume confirmation
- BULLISH: Trading 49.6% below Wall St target ($15.17)
- CAUTION: Bottoming setup, but lagging the sector by 23% over 20 days — wait for relative strength
Trading Range Analysis
30-Day Trading Range
$10.26 -
$11.43
Current vs Trading Range
OVERSOLD
Support & Resistance Levels
Support Level
$9.89
Resistance Level
$10.58
Current Trend
Downtrend
Technical data as of
Oct 1, 2026
Fundamental Context
Forward P/E (Next Year Est.)
6.84
Wall Street Target
$15.17
(+49.6%)
Revenue Growth (YoY)
34.9%
Earnings Growth (YoY)
-18.7%
Profit Margin
16.3%
Valuation Discount vs History
-5.1% cheaper
PE vs Historical
6.8 vs 8.0
CHEAP
Market-Implied Price Targets
If current PE multiple persists
Implied Growth (YoY):
-5.1%
(market-implied from PE analysis)
1-Year Target
$9.62
(-5%)
2-Year Target
$9.13
(-10%)
3-Year Target
$8.67
(-15%)
3-Yr Target (if PE normalizes)
(PE: 7→8)
$10.13
(0%)
3-Year Scenarios
Using analyst projected EPS growth
Bull:
(PE: 20.4, Growth: 9.1%)
$39.27
(+287%)
Base:
(SPY PE: 6.8, Growth: 9.1%)
$13.17
(+30%)
Bear:
(PE: 5.8, Growth: 9.1%)
$11.20
(+10%)
📈
Valuation based on Current Earnings
RECOVERY PLAY: Stock looks expensive now (23x PE), but valuation improves significantly next year (7x PE) as earnings recover.
Trailing PE: 22.56 | Current EPS (TTM): $0.45
Bull Case
$22.33
(+120%)
Analyst growth 100.0%, PE expands to 24.8
Base Case
$20.30
(+100%)
Market implied 100.0%, PE stable at 22.6
Bear Case
$6.90
(-32%)
Severe decline -20.0%, PE contracts to 19.2
These are projections based on PE multiples and EPS growth scenarios, not predictions. Actual results may vary significantly.
💡
Upside Surprise Potential
If earnings stabilize (0% growth), PE could expand from 6.8 to 8.0
Stabilization Target:
$11.85
(+16.9%)
PE Expansion Potential:
+16.9%
Share & Embed Analysis
Last updated: October 02, 2026 4:11 AM ET
Data refreshes hourly during market hours. Next update: 5:11 AM
Data refreshes hourly during market hours. Next update: 5:11 AM
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Technical Signals Check
Is PAX showing a specific setup today?
Insider Activity (6 Months)
0
Buys
0
Sells
0
Net
NEUTRAL
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