PAYC Stock Analysis: Buy, Sell, or Hold?
PAYC - PAYCOM SOFTWARE, INC.
$146.50
7.42 (5.34%)
▲
5d:
+4.72%
30d:
+7.15%
90d:
+28.97%
BUY
MODERATE Confidence
Analysis Updated: Jul 13, 2026 12:00 AM ET
Earnings: Aug 05, 2026
21d
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Interactive Price Chart (1 Month)
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Bottom Line:
💡 BUY OPPORTUNITY: PAYC shows positive signals but monitor for confirmation. Market pricing in 1.2% decline. Moderate conviction.
💡 BUY OPPORTUNITY: PAYC shows positive signals but monitor for confirmation. Market pricing in 1.2% decline. Moderate conviction.
Long-Term Wealth Forecast (2031)
Based on Analyst Consensus Growth & Historical Valuation
0% (Stagnation)
50% (Hyper Growth)
EST. PRICE IN 2031
$226.51
Based on 8.3% avg growth
INTRINSIC VALUE TODAY
$140.64
Trading above historical range
How this is calculated: We use a Growth Decay Model: starting with analyst consensus growth (adjusted above) and gradually slowing it down to a long-term terminal rate (4%) by Year 5. This provides a more realistic valuation than assuming constant hyper-growth. We then apply a 12.4x Exit PE.
In-depth Analysis How we analyze
Valuation Analysis: PAYC is currently trading at $146.50, which is considered extended relative to its 30-day fair value range of $126.49 to $139.71. The stock's valuation (Forward PE: 11.9) is in line with its historical norms (12.4). Remarkably, the market is currently pricing in an annual earnings decline of 1.2% over the next few years. This pessimistic expectation contrasts with the company's recent 22.6% earnings growth, suggesting potential undervaluation if the company simply maintains stability.
Technical Outlook: Technically, PAYC is in a uptrend. The price is approaching resistance at $146.30. A breakout above this level would be a bullish signal, while rejection here could lead to consolidation. The stock is showing strong short-term momentum, up 5.3% recently.
Market Sentiment: PAYC has a strong technical setup (60/100), with favorable trendlines, momentum, and price action for short-term traders. In the options market, Implied Volatility is low (19th percentile), suggesting options premiums are relatively cheap. This makes it an attractive time for long options strategies if you have a directional bias. Combining these factors, the current setup offers a favorable risk/reward ratio for buyers.
Technical Outlook: Technically, PAYC is in a uptrend. The price is approaching resistance at $146.30. A breakout above this level would be a bullish signal, while rejection here could lead to consolidation. The stock is showing strong short-term momentum, up 5.3% recently.
Market Sentiment: PAYC has a strong technical setup (60/100), with favorable trendlines, momentum, and price action for short-term traders. In the options market, Implied Volatility is low (19th percentile), suggesting options premiums are relatively cheap. This makes it an attractive time for long options strategies if you have a directional bias. Combining these factors, the current setup offers a favorable risk/reward ratio for buyers.
Quick Decision Summary
Current Position
EXTENDED
Historical Trading Range
$126.49 -
$139.71
Company Quality Score
57/100
(HOLD)
Options IV Signal
19th percentile
(LOW)
Volume Confirmation
HIGH
Confidence Score
69.2%
All Signals
- BEARISH: Price extended above range
- BULLISH: Options cheap (IV 19th percentile)
- BULLISH: Strong technical setup (60/100)
- BULLISH: High volume confirmation
- BULLISH: Strong upward momentum (+5.3%)
- NEUTRAL: Near Wall St target ($151.12)
Trading Range Analysis
30-Day Trading Range
$126.49 -
$139.71
Current vs Trading Range
EXTENDED
Expected Move (7 Days)
±$11.40
(7.8%)
Support & Resistance Levels
Support Level
$123.85
Resistance Level
$146.30
Current Trend
Uptrend
Technical data as of
Jul 13, 2026
Fundamental Context
Forward P/E (Next Year Est.)
11.93
Wall Street Target
$151.13
(+3.2%)
Revenue Growth (YoY)
7.8%
Earnings Growth (YoY)
22.6%
Profit Margin
22.4%
Valuation Discount vs History
-1.2% cheaper
PE vs Historical
11.9 vs 12.4
FAIR
Market-Implied Price Targets
If current PE multiple persists
Implied Growth (YoY):
-1.2%
(market-implied from PE analysis)
1-Year Target
$144.74
(-1%)
2-Year Target
$143.01
(-2%)
3-Year Target
$141.29
(-4%)
3-Yr Target (if PE normalizes)
(PE: 12→12)
$146.92
(+0%)
3-Year Scenarios
Using analyst projected EPS growth
Bull:
(PE: 21.8, Growth: 12.6%)
$381.49
(+160%)
Base:
(SPY PE: 11.9, Growth: 12.6%)
$208.87
(+43%)
Bear:
(PE: 10.1, Growth: 12.6%)
$177.54
(+21%)
📈
Valuation based on Current Earnings
RECOVERY PLAY: Stock looks expensive now (16x PE), but valuation improves significantly next year (12x PE) as earnings recover.
Trailing PE: 16.10 | Current EPS (TTM): $8.64
Bull Case
$217.53
(+49%)
Analyst growth 42.2%, PE expands to 17.7
Base Case
$197.76
(+35%)
Market implied 42.2%, PE stable at 16.1
Bear Case
$94.57
(-35%)
Severe decline -20.0%, PE contracts to 13.7
These are projections based on PE multiples and EPS growth scenarios, not predictions. Actual results may vary significantly.
💡
Upside Surprise Potential
If earnings stabilize (0% growth), PE could expand from 11.9 to 12.4
Stabilization Target:
$152.34
(+4.0%)
PE Expansion Potential:
+4.0%
Share & Embed Analysis
Last updated: July 14, 2026 3:47 AM ET
Data refreshes hourly during market hours. Next update: 4:47 AM
Data refreshes hourly during market hours. Next update: 4:47 AM
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Technical Signals Check
Is PAYC showing a specific setup today?
Insider Activity (6 Months)
3
Buys
1
Sells
+
Net
NEUTRAL
Recent Transactions
Gilbert Ray Cisneros, Jr.
BUY
2026-03-13
Ro Khanna
BUY
2026-02-24
Ro Khanna
BUY
2026-02-17
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Advanced PAYC Option Strategies
Professional options setups generated by AI based on today's PAYC price and gamma walls.
