SAP Stock Analysis: Buy, Sell, or Hold?
SAP - SAP SE
$183.62
2.74 (1.51%)
▲
5d:
+14.76%
30d:
+15.38%
90d:
+8.34%
HOLD
MODERATE Confidence
Analysis Updated: Jul 31, 2026 12:00 AM ET
Earnings: Oct 21, 2026
Smart Money Distribution
None View Scanner →
Strength: 6.6/10
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Interactive Price Chart (1 Month)
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Bottom Line:
📊 HOLD - EXTENDED: SAP is 7.8% above its trading range ($170.41). Fundamentals are solid but entry is stretched. Hold existing positions; wait for pullback to add new shares.
📊 HOLD - EXTENDED: SAP is 7.8% above its trading range ($170.41). Fundamentals are solid but entry is stretched. Hold existing positions; wait for pullback to add new shares.
Long-Term Wealth Forecast (2031)
Based on Analyst Consensus Growth & Historical Valuation
0% (Stagnation)
50% (Hyper Growth)
EST. PRICE IN 2031
$303.16
Based on 10.8% avg growth
INTRINSIC VALUE TODAY
$188.24
2.5% Margin of Safety
How this is calculated: We use a Growth Decay Model: starting with analyst consensus growth (adjusted above) and gradually slowing it down to a long-term terminal rate (4%) by Year 5. This provides a more realistic valuation than assuming constant hyper-growth. We then apply a 19.0x Exit PE.
In-depth Analysis How we analyze
Valuation Analysis: SAP is currently trading at $183.62, which is considered extended relative to its 30-day fair value range of $150.03 to $170.41. The stock's valuation (Forward PE: 19.1) is in line with its historical norms (19.0). At these levels, the market is pricing in 0.2% annual earnings growth. This growth rate appears achievable given the company's track record, suggesting the valuation is rational.
Technical Outlook: Technically, SAP is in a strong downtrend. The price is approaching resistance at $188.86. A breakout above this level would be a bullish signal, while rejection here could lead to consolidation.
Market Sentiment: SAP has a strong technical setup (60/100), with favorable trendlines, momentum, and price action for short-term traders. Wall Street analysts see significant upside, with an average price target of $242.92 (+32.3%). The stock is fairly positioned - fine to hold existing positions or accumulate slowly on dips, but not an urgent buy.
Technical Outlook: Technically, SAP is in a strong downtrend. The price is approaching resistance at $188.86. A breakout above this level would be a bullish signal, while rejection here could lead to consolidation.
Market Sentiment: SAP has a strong technical setup (60/100), with favorable trendlines, momentum, and price action for short-term traders. Wall Street analysts see significant upside, with an average price target of $242.92 (+32.3%). The stock is fairly positioned - fine to hold existing positions or accumulate slowly on dips, but not an urgent buy.
Quick Decision Summary
Current Position
EXTENDED
Historical Trading Range
$150.03 -
$170.41
Company Quality Score
43/100
(HOLD)
Volume Confirmation
HIGH
Confidence Score
58.1%
Protect Your Profits
Holding SAP? Use our AI-powered strategies to protect your downside while keeping your long-term position.
View Profit Protection PlanAll Signals
- BEARISH: Price extended above range (+7.8% above its trading range)
- BULLISH: Strong technical setup (60/100)
- BULLISH: High volume confirmation
- BULLISH: Trading 32.3% below Wall St target ($242.92)
- NEUTRAL: Market pricing in 0.2% annual earnings growth - fairly valued
Trading Range Analysis
30-Day Trading Range
$150.03 -
$170.41
Current vs Trading Range
EXTENDED
Support & Resistance Levels
Support Level
$144.97
Resistance Level
$188.86
Current Trend
Strong Downtrend
Technical data as of
Jul 31, 2026
Fundamental Context
Forward P/E (Next Year Est.)
19.13
Wall Street Target
$242.92
(+32.3%)
Revenue Growth (YoY)
9.4%
Earnings Growth (YoY)
30.6%
Profit Margin
20.4%
Valuation Premium vs History
+0.2% premium
PE vs Historical
19.1 vs 19.0
FAIR
Market-Implied Price Targets
If current PE multiple persists
Implied Growth (YoY):
+0.2%
(market-implied from PE analysis)
1-Year Target
$183.99
(+0%)
2-Year Target
$184.36
(+0%)
3-Year Target
$184.72
(+1%)
3-Yr Target (if PE normalizes)
(PE: 19→19)
PE COMPRESSION
$183.49
(0%)
Earnings growth offset by PE compression
3-Year Scenarios
Using analyst projected EPS growth
Bull:
(PE: 20.7, Growth: 17.6%)
$323.31
(+76%)
Base:
(SPY PE: 19.1, Growth: 17.6%)
$298.32
(+63%)
Bear:
(PE: 16.3, Growth: 17.6%)
$253.57
(+38%)
📈
Valuation based on Current Earnings
RECOVERY PLAY: Stock looks expensive now (25x PE), but valuation improves significantly next year (19x PE) as earnings recover.
Trailing PE: 24.51 | Current EPS (TTM): $7.38
Bull Case
$258.81
(+41%)
Analyst growth 30.1%, PE expands to 27.0
Base Case
$235.29
(+28%)
Market implied 30.1%, PE stable at 24.5
Bear Case
$123.00
(-33%)
Severe decline -20.0%, PE contracts to 20.8
These are projections based on PE multiples and EPS growth scenarios, not predictions. Actual results may vary significantly.
Share & Embed Analysis
Last updated: August 03, 2026 1:01 AM ET
Data refreshes hourly during market hours. Next update: 2:01 AM
Data refreshes hourly during market hours. Next update: 2:01 AM
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Technical Signals Check
Is SAP showing a specific setup today?
Insider Activity (6 Months)
0
Buys
0
Sells
0
Net
NEUTRAL
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