SIRI Stock Analysis: Buy, Sell, or Hold?
SIRI - Sirius XM Holdings, Inc
$30.37
0.75 (2.53%)
▲
5d:
-2.72%
30d:
-0.46%
90d:
+11.57%
BUY
MODERATE Confidence
Analysis Updated: Jul 31, 2026 12:00 AM ET
Earnings: Jul 30, 2026
0d
Smart Money Accumulation
None View Scanner →
Strength: 6.0/10
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Interactive Price Chart (1 Month)
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Bottom Line:
💡 BUY OPPORTUNITY: SIRI shows positive signals but monitor for confirmation. Market pricing in 7.3% annual growth which appears achievable. Moderate conviction.
💡 BUY OPPORTUNITY: SIRI shows positive signals but monitor for confirmation. Market pricing in 7.3% annual growth which appears achievable. Moderate conviction.
Long-Term Wealth Forecast (2031)
Based on Analyst Consensus Growth & Historical Valuation
0% (Stagnation)
50% (Hyper Growth)
EST. PRICE IN 2031
$32.74
Based on 6.1% avg growth
INTRINSIC VALUE TODAY
$20.33
Trading above historical range
How this is calculated: We use a Growth Decay Model: starting with analyst consensus growth (adjusted above) and gradually slowing it down to a long-term terminal rate (4%) by Year 5. This provides a more realistic valuation than assuming constant hyper-growth. We then apply a 7.5x Exit PE.
In-depth Analysis How we analyze
Valuation Analysis: SIRI is currently trading at $30.37, which is considered fair relative to its 30-day fair value range of $29.38 to $31.25. From a valuation perspective, the stock is trading at a premium (Forward PE: 9.3) compared to its historical average (7.5). At these levels, the market is pricing in 7.3% annual earnings growth. This growth rate appears achievable given the company's track record, suggesting the valuation is rational.
Technical Outlook: Technically, SIRI is in a strong uptrend. Immediate support is located at $29.18, while resistance sits at $32.66.
Market Sentiment: The stock shows a mixed technical setup (40/100), with neutral trendline and momentum signals. Combining these factors, the current setup offers a favorable risk/reward ratio for buyers.
Technical Outlook: Technically, SIRI is in a strong uptrend. Immediate support is located at $29.18, while resistance sits at $32.66.
Market Sentiment: The stock shows a mixed technical setup (40/100), with neutral trendline and momentum signals. Combining these factors, the current setup offers a favorable risk/reward ratio for buyers.
Quick Decision Summary
Current Position
FAIR
Historical Trading Range
$29.38 -
$31.25
Company Quality Score
53/100
(HOLD)
Volume Confirmation
HIGH
Confidence Score
66.7%
All Signals
- NEUTRAL: Price in fair range
- NEUTRAL: Mixed technical signals (40/100)
- BULLISH: High volume confirmation
- NEUTRAL: Near Wall St target ($31.23)
- NEUTRAL: Trading at premium valuation - market expects 7.3% growth which is achievable
Trading Range Analysis
30-Day Trading Range
$29.38 -
$31.25
Current vs Trading Range
FAIR
Support & Resistance Levels
Support Level
$29.18
Resistance Level
$32.66
Current Trend
Strong Uptrend
Technical data as of
Aug 3, 2026
Fundamental Context
Forward P/E (Next Year Est.)
9.33
Wall Street Target
$31.23
(+2.8%)
Revenue Growth (YoY)
1.0%
Earnings Growth (YoY)
23.7%
Profit Margin
10.2%
Valuation Premium vs History
+7.3% premium
PE vs Historical
9.3 vs 7.5
STRETCHED
Market-Implied Price Targets
If current PE multiple persists
Implied Growth (YoY):
+7.3%
(market-implied from PE analysis)
1-Year Target
$32.59
(+7%)
2-Year Target
$34.97
(+15%)
3-Year Target
$37.52
(+24%)
3-Yr Target (if PE normalizes)
(PE: 9→8)
PE COMPRESSION
$30.17
(-1%)
Earnings growth offset by PE compression
3-Year Scenarios
Using analyst projected EPS growth
Bull:
(PE: 20.7, Growth: 8.1%)
$85.38
(+181%)
Base:
(SPY PE: 9.3, Growth: 8.1%)
$38.41
(+27%)
Bear:
(PE: 7.5, Growth: 8.1%)
$30.89
(+2%)
📈
Valuation based on Current Earnings
RECOVERY PLAY: Stock looks expensive now (12x PE), but valuation improves significantly next year (9x PE) as earnings recover.
Trailing PE: 11.90 | Current EPS (TTM): $2.49
Bull Case
$42.61
(+40%)
Analyst growth 30.8%, PE expands to 13.1
Base Case
$38.73
(+28%)
Market implied 30.8%, PE stable at 11.9
Bear Case
$20.14
(-34%)
Severe decline -20.0%, PE contracts to 10.1
These are projections based on PE multiples and EPS growth scenarios, not predictions. Actual results may vary significantly.
Share & Embed Analysis
Last updated: August 04, 2026 3:37 AM ET
Data refreshes hourly during market hours. Next update: 4:37 AM
Data refreshes hourly during market hours. Next update: 4:37 AM
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Technical Signals Check
Is SIRI showing a specific setup today?
Insider Activity (6 Months)
0
Buys
0
Sells
0
Net
NEUTRAL
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