What is the fair value of SIRI stock?

Our analysis estimates the fair value range for SIRI to be between $28.19 and $29.72. The current price is $29.15.

What is the analyst price target for SIRI?

The average Wall Street analyst price target for SIRI is $33.08. This implies a potential upside of 13.5% from current levels.

Sirius XM (SIRI) Stock: Buy, Sell, or Hold?

SIRI - Sirius XM Holdings, Inc

RADIO BROADCASTING STATIONS

$29.15

0.27 (0.95%) ▲

5d: -2.08%

30d: +2.5%

90d: +5.65%

HOLD

MODERATE Confidence

Protect Your SIRI Gains

Analysis Updated: Sep 11, 2026 12:00 AM ET

Earnings: Oct 29, 2026

Smart Money Distribution

Options positioning is turning defensive after a sharp run-up - a pattern consistent with institutional profit-taking. View Scanner →

Signal fired Sep 3, 2026 at $29.74 · last confirmed Sep 11, 2026

Strength: 6.6/10

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Interactive Price Chart (1 Month)

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💡

Bottom Line:
📊 HOLD: SIRI trades at premium valuation expecting 4.9% growth. Hold existing positions but don't chase. Wait for better entry.

See Forward Earnings Fair Value & Price Prediction →

Long-Term Wealth Forecast (2031)

Based on Analyst Consensus Growth & Historical Valuation

Adjust Growth Assumption: 9.9%

0% (Stagnation) 50% (Hyper Growth)

EST. PRICE IN 2031

$35.37

Based on 7.0% avg growth

INTRINSIC VALUE TODAY

$21.96

Trading above historical range

How this is calculated: We use a Growth Decay Model: starting with analyst consensus growth (adjusted above) and gradually slowing it down to a long-term terminal rate (4%) by Year 5. This provides a more realistic valuation than assuming constant hyper-growth. We then apply a 7.7x Exit PE.

View Full DCF Model

In-depth Analysis How we analyze

Valuation Analysis: SIRI is currently trading at $29.15, which is considered fair relative to its 30-day fair value range of $28.19 to $29.72. From a valuation perspective, the stock is trading at a premium (Forward PE: 8.9) compared to its historical average (7.7). At these levels, the market is pricing in 4.9% annual earnings growth. This growth rate appears achievable given the company's track record, suggesting the valuation is rational.

Technical Outlook: Technically, SIRI is in a uptrend. Immediate support is located at $27.51, while resistance sits at $30.15.

Market Sentiment: The stock scores a mixed 47/100 on our bottoming-setup gauge, with only partial signs of a stabilized entry point. Wall Street analysts see significant upside, with an average price target of $33.08 (+13.5%). The stock is fairly positioned - fine to hold existing positions or accumulate slowly on dips, but not an urgent buy.

Quick Decision Summary

Current Position FAIR

Historical Trading Range $28.19 - $29.72

Company Quality Score 54/100 (HOLD)

Volume Confirmation HIGH

Confidence Score 69.0%

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All Signals

NEUTRAL: Price in fair range
NEUTRAL: Mixed technical signals (47/100)
BULLISH: High volume confirmation
BULLISH: Trading below Wall St target ($33.08)
NEUTRAL: Trading at premium valuation - market expects 4.9% growth which is achievable
NEUTRAL: Bottoming setup forming (47/100) — watch for confirmation

Trading Range Analysis

30-Day Trading Range $28.19 - $29.72

Current vs Trading Range FAIR

Support & Resistance Levels

Support Level $27.51

Resistance Level $30.15

Current Trend Uptrend

Technical data as of Sep 11, 2026

Fundamental Context

Forward P/E (Next Year Est.) 8.87

Wall Street Target $33.08 (+13.5%)

Revenue Growth (YoY) 1.0%

Earnings Growth (YoY) 23.7%

Profit Margin 10.2%

Valuation Premium vs History +4.9% premium

PE vs Historical 8.9 vs 7.7 STRETCHED

Market-Implied Price Targets If current PE multiple persists

Implied Growth (YoY): +4.9% (market-implied from PE analysis)

1-Year Target $30.58 (+5%)

2-Year Target $32.08 (+10%)

3-Year Target $33.65 (+15%)

3-Yr Target (if PE normalizes) (PE: 9→8) PE COMPRESSION $29.21 (+0%)

Earnings growth offset by PE compression

3-Year Scenarios Using analyst projected EPS growth

Bull: (PE: 20.2, Growth: 9.9%) $87.96 (+202%)

Base: (SPY PE: 8.9, Growth: 9.9%) $38.68 (+33%)

Bear: (PE: 7.5, Growth: 9.9%) $32.88 (+13%)

📈 Valuation based on Current Earnings

RECOVERY PLAY: Stock looks expensive now (12x PE), but valuation improves significantly next year (9x PE) as earnings recover.

Trailing PE: 11.60 | Current EPS (TTM): $2.49

Bull Case $41.92 (+44%)

Analyst growth 32.0%, PE expands to 12.8

Base Case $38.11 (+31%)

Market implied 32.0%, PE stable at 11.6

Bear Case $19.64 (-33%)

Severe decline -20.0%, PE contracts to 9.9

These are projections based on PE multiples and EPS growth scenarios, not predictions. Actual results may vary significantly.

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Last updated: September 13, 2026 9:27 AM ET
Data refreshes hourly during market hours. Next update: 10:27 AM

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Insider Activity (6 Months)

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Advanced SIRI Option Strategies

Professional options setups generated by AI based on today's SIRI price and gamma walls.

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