Sirius XM (SIRI) Stock: Buy, Sell, or Hold?
SIRI - Sirius XM Holdings, Inc
$25.72
0.08 (0.31%)
▲
5d:
-0.52%
30d:
-13.4%
90d:
-16.36%
HOLD
LOW Confidence
Analysis Updated: Oct 2, 2026 12:00 AM ET
Earnings: Oct 29, 2026
25d
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Interactive Price Chart (1 Month)
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Bottom Line:
📊 HOLD: SIRI is fairly valued with market pricing in 0.5% annual growth. Fine to hold or accumulate slowly on dips.
📊 HOLD: SIRI is fairly valued with market pricing in 0.5% annual growth. Fine to hold or accumulate slowly on dips.
Long-Term Wealth Forecast (2031)
Based on Analyst Consensus Growth & Historical Valuation
0% (Stagnation)
50% (Hyper Growth)
EST. PRICE IN 2031
$35.45
Based on 7.0% avg growth
INTRINSIC VALUE TODAY
$22.01
Trading above historical range
How this is calculated: We use a Growth Decay Model: starting with analyst consensus growth (adjusted above) and gradually slowing it down to a long-term terminal rate (4%) by Year 5. This provides a more realistic valuation than assuming constant hyper-growth. We then apply a 7.7x Exit PE.
In-depth Analysis How we analyze
Valuation Analysis: SIRI is currently trading at $25.72, which is considered oversold relative to its 30-day fair value range of $26.47 to $29.15. The stock's valuation (Forward PE: 7.8) is in line with its historical norms (7.7). At these levels, the market is pricing in 0.5% annual earnings growth. This growth rate appears achievable given the company's track record, suggesting the valuation is rational.
Technical Outlook: Technically, SIRI is in a uptrend. The price is currently testing key support at $25.30. A bounce from this level would confirm strength, while a break below could signal further downside.
Market Sentiment: SIRI scores 66/100 on our bottoming-setup gauge — the chart has corrected and is stabilizing (RSI reset, momentum turning up), historically a favorable entry zone. Wall Street analysts see significant upside, with an average price target of $33.23 (+29.2%). The stock is fairly positioned - fine to hold existing positions or accumulate slowly on dips, but not an urgent buy.
Technical Outlook: Technically, SIRI is in a uptrend. The price is currently testing key support at $25.30. A bounce from this level would confirm strength, while a break below could signal further downside.
Market Sentiment: SIRI scores 66/100 on our bottoming-setup gauge — the chart has corrected and is stabilizing (RSI reset, momentum turning up), historically a favorable entry zone. Wall Street analysts see significant upside, with an average price target of $33.23 (+29.2%). The stock is fairly positioned - fine to hold existing positions or accumulate slowly on dips, but not an urgent buy.
Quick Decision Summary
Current Position
OVERSOLD
Historical Trading Range
$26.47 -
$29.15
Company Quality Score
59/100
(HOLD)
Volume Confirmation
HIGH
Confidence Score
91.4%
Protect Your Profits
Holding SIRI? Use our AI-powered strategies to protect your downside while keeping your long-term position.
View Profit Protection PlanAll Signals
- BULLISH: Price oversold vs 30-day range
- BULLISH: Strong technical setup (66/100)
- BULLISH: High volume confirmation
- BULLISH: Trading 29.2% below Wall St target ($33.23)
- NEUTRAL: Market pricing in 0.5% annual earnings growth - fairly valued
- CAUTION: Bottoming setup, but lagging the sector by 28% over 20 days — wait for relative strength
Trading Range Analysis
30-Day Trading Range
$26.47 -
$29.15
Current vs Trading Range
OVERSOLD
Support & Resistance Levels
Support Level
$25.31
Resistance Level
$27.70
Current Trend
Uptrend
Technical data as of
Oct 2, 2026
Fundamental Context
Forward P/E (Next Year Est.)
7.85
Wall Street Target
$33.23
(+29.2%)
Revenue Growth (YoY)
1.0%
Earnings Growth (YoY)
23.7%
Profit Margin
10.2%
Valuation Premium vs History
+0.5% premium
PE vs Historical
7.9 vs 7.7
FAIR
Market-Implied Price Targets
If current PE multiple persists
Implied Growth (YoY):
+0.5%
(market-implied from PE analysis)
1-Year Target
$25.85
(+1%)
2-Year Target
$25.98
(+1%)
3-Year Target
$26.11
(+2%)
3-Yr Target (if PE normalizes)
(PE: 8→8)
PE COMPRESSION
$25.62
(0%)
Earnings growth offset by PE compression
3-Year Scenarios
Using analyst projected EPS growth
Bull:
(PE: 20.4, Growth: 10.1%)
$89.24
(+247%)
Base:
(SPY PE: 7.8, Growth: 10.1%)
$34.33
(+34%)
Bear:
(PE: 6.7, Growth: 10.1%)
$29.18
(+13%)
📈
Valuation based on Current Earnings
RECOVERY PLAY: Stock looks expensive now (10x PE), but valuation improves significantly next year (8x PE) as earnings recover.
Trailing PE: 10.30 | Current EPS (TTM): $2.49
Bull Case
$37.13
(+44%)
Analyst growth 31.6%, PE expands to 11.3
Base Case
$33.75
(+31%)
Market implied 31.6%, PE stable at 10.3
Bear Case
$17.44
(-32%)
Severe decline -20.0%, PE contracts to 8.8
These are projections based on PE multiples and EPS growth scenarios, not predictions. Actual results may vary significantly.
Share & Embed Analysis
Last updated: October 03, 2026 4:14 PM ET
Data refreshes hourly during market hours. Next update: 5:14 PM
Data refreshes hourly during market hours. Next update: 5:14 PM
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Technical Signals Check
Is SIRI showing a specific setup today?
Insider Activity (6 Months)
0
Buys
0
Sells
0
Net
NEUTRAL
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