SUPN Stock Analysis: Buy, Sell, or Hold?
SUPN - Supernus Pharmaceuticals, Inc.
$46.00
1.37 (3.07%)
▲
5d:
-2.09%
30d:
-4.27%
90d:
-3.87%
BUY
HIGH Confidence
Analysis Updated: Jul 31, 2026 12:00 AM ET
Earnings: Aug 04, 2026
0d
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Interactive Price Chart (1 Month)
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Bottom Line:
✅ BUY SIGNAL: SUPN trading at deep discount. Market pricing in -5.9% annual earnings decline, creating value opportunity for patient investors.
✅ BUY SIGNAL: SUPN trading at deep discount. Market pricing in -5.9% annual earnings decline, creating value opportunity for patient investors.
Long-Term Wealth Forecast (2031)
Based on Analyst Consensus Growth & Historical Valuation
0% (Stagnation)
50% (Hyper Growth)
EST. PRICE IN 2031
$107.42
Based on 14.5% avg growth
INTRINSIC VALUE TODAY
$66.70
31.0% Margin of Safety
How this is calculated: We use a Growth Decay Model: starting with analyst consensus growth (adjusted above) and gradually slowing it down to a long-term terminal rate (4%) by Year 5. This provides a more realistic valuation than assuming constant hyper-growth. We then apply a 12.7x Exit PE.
In-depth Analysis How we analyze
Valuation Analysis: SUPN is currently trading at $46.00, which is considered oversold relative to its 30-day fair value range of $46.01 to $48.38. From a valuation perspective, the stock is trading at a discount (Forward PE: 10.6) compared to its historical average (12.7). Remarkably, the market is currently pricing in an annual earnings decline of 5.9% over the next few years. This pessimistic expectation contrasts with the company's recent 11.1% earnings growth, suggesting potential undervaluation if the company simply maintains stability.
Technical Outlook: Technically, SUPN is in a downtrend. Immediate support is located at $44.17, while resistance sits at $52.50. The stock is showing strong short-term momentum, up 3.1% recently.
Market Sentiment: The stock shows a mixed technical setup (40/100), with neutral trendline and momentum signals. Wall Street analysts see significant upside, with an average price target of $63.50 (+38.0%). Combining these factors, the current setup offers a favorable risk/reward ratio for buyers.
Technical Outlook: Technically, SUPN is in a downtrend. Immediate support is located at $44.17, while resistance sits at $52.50. The stock is showing strong short-term momentum, up 3.1% recently.
Market Sentiment: The stock shows a mixed technical setup (40/100), with neutral trendline and momentum signals. Wall Street analysts see significant upside, with an average price target of $63.50 (+38.0%). Combining these factors, the current setup offers a favorable risk/reward ratio for buyers.
Quick Decision Summary
Current Position
OVERSOLD
Historical Trading Range
$46.01 -
$48.38
Company Quality Score
44/100
(HOLD)
Volume Confirmation
HIGH
Confidence Score
84.3%
All Signals
- BULLISH: Price oversold vs 30-day range
- NEUTRAL: Mixed technical signals (40/100)
- BULLISH: High volume confirmation
- BULLISH: Strong upward momentum (+3.1%)
- BULLISH: Trading 38.0% below Wall St target ($63.50)
Trading Range Analysis
30-Day Trading Range
$46.01 -
$48.38
Current vs Trading Range
OVERSOLD
Support & Resistance Levels
Support Level
$44.17
Resistance Level
$52.50
Current Trend
Downtrend
Technical data as of
Aug 3, 2026
Fundamental Context
Forward P/E (Next Year Est.)
10.59
Wall Street Target
$63.50
(+38.0%)
Revenue Growth (YoY)
38.6%
Earnings Growth (YoY)
11.1%
Profit Margin
-3.7%
Valuation Discount vs History
-5.9% cheaper
PE vs Historical
10.6 vs 12.7
CHEAP
Market-Implied Price Targets
If current PE multiple persists
Implied Growth (YoY):
-5.9%
(market-implied from PE analysis)
1-Year Target
$43.29
(-6%)
2-Year Target
$40.73
(-12%)
3-Year Target
$38.33
(-17%)
3-Yr Target (if PE normalizes)
(PE: 11→13)
$45.96
(0%)
3-Year Scenarios
Using analyst projected EPS growth
Bull:
(PE: 20.7, Growth: 74.7%)
$303.87
(+561%)
Base:
(SPY PE: 10.6, Growth: 74.7%)
$155.25
(+238%)
Bear:
(PE: 9.0, Growth: 74.7%)
$131.96
(+187%)
💡
Upside Surprise Potential
If earnings stabilize (0% growth), PE could expand from 10.6 to 12.7
Stabilization Target:
$55.16
(+19.9%)
PE Expansion Potential:
+19.9%
Share & Embed Analysis
Last updated: August 04, 2026 2:06 AM ET
Data refreshes hourly during market hours. Next update: 3:06 AM
Data refreshes hourly during market hours. Next update: 3:06 AM
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Technical Signals Check
Is SUPN showing a specific setup today?
Insider Activity (6 Months)
1
Buys
7
Sells
Net
INSIDERS SELLING
Recent Transactions
Padmanabh P Bhatt
SELL
7250 shares
2026-03-18
Padmanabh P Bhatt
SELL
50000 shares
2026-03-16
Jack A Khattar
SELL
35000 shares
2026-03-13
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Advanced SUPN Option Strategies
Professional options setups generated by AI based on today's SUPN price and gamma walls.
