SUPN Stock Analysis: Buy, Sell, or Hold?
SUPN - Supernus Pharmaceuticals, Inc.
$47.35
-1.11 (-2.29%)
▼
5d:
+0.23%
30d:
+5.01%
90d:
-6.57%
BUY
MODERATE Confidence
Analysis Updated: Jul 13, 2026 12:00 AM ET
Earnings: Aug 04, 2026
20d
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Interactive Price Chart (1 Month)
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Bottom Line:
💡 BUY OPPORTUNITY: SUPN shows positive signals but monitor for confirmation. Market pricing in 5.3% decline. Moderate conviction.
💡 BUY OPPORTUNITY: SUPN shows positive signals but monitor for confirmation. Market pricing in 5.3% decline. Moderate conviction.
Long-Term Wealth Forecast (2031)
Based on Analyst Consensus Growth & Historical Valuation
0% (Stagnation)
50% (Hyper Growth)
EST. PRICE IN 2031
$108.26
Based on 14.5% avg growth
INTRINSIC VALUE TODAY
$67.22
29.6% Margin of Safety
How this is calculated: We use a Growth Decay Model: starting with analyst consensus growth (adjusted above) and gradually slowing it down to a long-term terminal rate (4%) by Year 5. This provides a more realistic valuation than assuming constant hyper-growth. We then apply a 12.8x Exit PE.
In-depth Analysis How we analyze
Valuation Analysis: SUPN is currently trading at $47.35, which is considered extended relative to its 30-day fair value range of $43.94 to $47.50. From a valuation perspective, the stock is trading at a discount (Forward PE: 10.9) compared to its historical average (12.8). Remarkably, the market is currently pricing in an annual earnings decline of 5.3% over the next few years. This pessimistic expectation contrasts with the company's recent 11.1% earnings growth, suggesting potential undervaluation if the company simply maintains stability.
Technical Outlook: Technically, SUPN is in a strong downtrend. Immediate support is located at $45.80, while resistance sits at $51.37.
Market Sentiment: SUPN has a strong technical setup (60/100), with favorable trendlines, momentum, and price action for short-term traders. Wall Street analysts see significant upside, with an average price target of $63.50 (+34.1%). Combining these factors, the current setup offers a favorable risk/reward ratio for buyers.
Technical Outlook: Technically, SUPN is in a strong downtrend. Immediate support is located at $45.80, while resistance sits at $51.37.
Market Sentiment: SUPN has a strong technical setup (60/100), with favorable trendlines, momentum, and price action for short-term traders. Wall Street analysts see significant upside, with an average price target of $63.50 (+34.1%). Combining these factors, the current setup offers a favorable risk/reward ratio for buyers.
Quick Decision Summary
Current Position
EXTENDED
Historical Trading Range
$43.94 -
$47.50
Company Quality Score
60/100
(BUY)
Volume Confirmation
HIGH
Confidence Score
61.9%
All Signals
- BEARISH: Price extended above range
- BULLISH: Strong technical setup (60/100)
- BULLISH: High volume confirmation
- BULLISH: Trading 34.1% below Wall St target ($63.50)
Trading Range Analysis
30-Day Trading Range
$43.94 -
$47.50
Current vs Trading Range
EXTENDED
Support & Resistance Levels
Support Level
$45.80
Resistance Level
$51.37
Current Trend
Strong Downtrend
Technical data as of
Jul 13, 2026
Fundamental Context
Forward P/E (Next Year Est.)
10.90
Wall Street Target
$63.50
(+34.1%)
Revenue Growth (YoY)
38.6%
Earnings Growth (YoY)
11.1%
Profit Margin
-3.7%
Valuation Discount vs History
-5.3% cheaper
PE vs Historical
10.9 vs 12.8
CHEAP
Market-Implied Price Targets
If current PE multiple persists
Implied Growth (YoY):
-5.3%
(market-implied from PE analysis)
1-Year Target
$44.84
(-5%)
2-Year Target
$42.46
(-10%)
3-Year Target
$40.21
(-15%)
3-Yr Target (if PE normalizes)
(PE: 11→13)
$47.21
(0%)
3-Year Scenarios
Using analyst projected EPS growth
Bull:
(PE: 21.8, Growth: 74.7%)
$319.27
(+574%)
Base:
(SPY PE: 10.9, Growth: 74.7%)
$159.81
(+238%)
Bear:
(PE: 9.3, Growth: 74.7%)
$135.84
(+187%)
💡
Upside Surprise Potential
If earnings stabilize (0% growth), PE could expand from 10.9 to 12.8
Stabilization Target:
$55.59
(+17.4%)
PE Expansion Potential:
+17.4%
Share & Embed Analysis
Last updated: July 14, 2026 9:23 AM ET
Data refreshes hourly during market hours. Next update: 10:23 AM
Data refreshes hourly during market hours. Next update: 10:23 AM
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Technical Signals Check
Is SUPN showing a specific setup today?
Insider Activity (6 Months)
1
Buys
7
Sells
Net
INSIDERS SELLING
Recent Transactions
Padmanabh P Bhatt
SELL
7250 shares
2026-03-18
Padmanabh P Bhatt
SELL
50000 shares
2026-03-16
Jack A Khattar
SELL
35000 shares
2026-03-13
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Advanced SUPN Option Strategies
Professional options setups generated by AI based on today's SUPN price and gamma walls.
