TAK Stock Analysis: Buy, Sell, or Hold?
TAK - Takeda Pharmaceutical Company Limited American Depositary Shares (each representing 1/2 of a share of Common Stock)
$16.83
-0.26 (-1.52%)
▼
5d:
-3.5%
30d:
+0.36%
90d:
+1.26%
BUY
HIGH Confidence
Analysis Updated: Jul 31, 2026 12:00 AM ET
Earnings: Jul 30, 2026
0d
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Interactive Price Chart (1 Month)
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Bottom Line:
✅ BUY SIGNAL: TAK appears undervalued with market expecting modest 1.1% growth. Trading below historical PE levels with solid fundamentals.
✅ BUY SIGNAL: TAK appears undervalued with market expecting modest 1.1% growth. Trading below historical PE levels with solid fundamentals.
Long-Term Wealth Forecast (2031)
Based on Analyst Consensus Growth & Historical Valuation
0% (Stagnation)
50% (Hyper Growth)
EST. PRICE IN 2031
$36.99
Based on 14.5% avg growth
INTRINSIC VALUE TODAY
$22.97
26.7% Margin of Safety
How this is calculated: We use a Growth Decay Model: starting with analyst consensus growth (adjusted above) and gradually slowing it down to a long-term terminal rate (4%) by Year 5. This provides a more realistic valuation than assuming constant hyper-growth. We then apply a 0.2x Exit PE.
In-depth Analysis How we analyze
Valuation Analysis: TAK is currently trading at $16.83, which is considered fair relative to its 30-day fair value range of $16.24 to $17.27. From a valuation perspective, the stock is trading at a discount (Forward PE: 0.2) compared to its historical average (0.2). At these levels, the market is pricing in 1.1% annual earnings growth.
Technical Outlook: Technically, TAK is in a downtrend. The price is currently testing key support at $16.68. A bounce from this level would confirm strength, while a break below could signal further downside.
Market Sentiment: TAK has a strong technical setup (75/100), with favorable trendlines, momentum, and price action for short-term traders. Wall Street analysts see significant upside, with an average price target of $21.77 (+29.3%). Combining these factors, the current setup offers a favorable risk/reward ratio for buyers.
Technical Outlook: Technically, TAK is in a downtrend. The price is currently testing key support at $16.68. A bounce from this level would confirm strength, while a break below could signal further downside.
Market Sentiment: TAK has a strong technical setup (75/100), with favorable trendlines, momentum, and price action for short-term traders. Wall Street analysts see significant upside, with an average price target of $21.77 (+29.3%). Combining these factors, the current setup offers a favorable risk/reward ratio for buyers.
Quick Decision Summary
Current Position
FAIR
Historical Trading Range
$16.24 -
$17.27
Company Quality Score
56/100
(HOLD)
Volume Confirmation
HIGH
Confidence Score
86.7%
All Signals
- NEUTRAL: Price in fair range
- BULLISH: Strong technical setup (75/100)
- BULLISH: High volume confirmation
- BULLISH: Trading 29.3% below Wall St target ($21.77)
- BULLISH: Expecting earnings turnaround to 1.1% growth with 10.2% revenue growth
Trading Range Analysis
30-Day Trading Range
$16.24 -
$17.27
Current vs Trading Range
FAIR
Support & Resistance Levels
Support Level
$16.69
Resistance Level
$17.83
Current Trend
Downtrend
Technical data as of
Aug 3, 2026
Fundamental Context
Forward P/E (Next Year Est.)
0.18
Wall Street Target
$21.77
(+29.3%)
Revenue Growth (YoY)
10.2%
Earnings Growth (YoY)
-9.8%
Profit Margin
-3.5%
Valuation Premium vs History
+1.1% premium
PE vs Historical
0.2 vs 0.2
CHEAP
Market-Implied Price Targets
If current PE multiple persists
Implied Growth (YoY):
+1.1%
(market-implied from PE analysis)
1-Year Target
$17.02
(+1%)
2-Year Target
$17.20
(+2%)
3-Year Target
$17.39
(+3%)
3-Yr Target (if PE normalizes)
(PE: 0→0)
$19.63
(+17%)
3-Year Scenarios
Using analyst projected EPS growth
Bull:
(PE: 20.7, Growth: 93.0%)
$6645.30
(+39385%)
Base:
(SPY PE: 0.2, Growth: 93.0%)
$56.80
(+238%)
Bear:
(PE: 0.2, Growth: 93.0%)
$48.28
(+187%)
Share & Embed Analysis
Last updated: August 04, 2026 6:17 AM ET
Data refreshes hourly during market hours. Next update: 7:17 AM
Data refreshes hourly during market hours. Next update: 7:17 AM
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Technical Signals Check
Is TAK showing a specific setup today?
Insider Activity (6 Months)
0
Buys
0
Sells
0
Net
NEUTRAL
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