TD Stock Analysis: Buy, Sell, or Hold?
TD - Toronto Dominion Bank
$119.61
1.11 (0.94%)
▲
5d:
+2.89%
30d:
+10.84%
90d:
+27.83%
HOLD
MODERATE Confidence
Analysis Updated: Jun 18, 2026 12:00 AM ET
Earnings: May 28, 2026
0d
Smart Money Distribution
None View Scanner →
Strength: 6.8/10
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Interactive Price Chart (1 Month)
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Bottom Line:
📊 HOLD: TD shows mixed signals. Fine to hold existing positions. Not urgent to buy or sell.
📊 HOLD: TD shows mixed signals. Fine to hold existing positions. Not urgent to buy or sell.
Long-Term Wealth Forecast (2031)
Based on Analyst Consensus Growth & Historical Valuation
0% (Stagnation)
50% (Hyper Growth)
EST. PRICE IN 2031
$150.94
Based on 7.5% avg growth
INTRINSIC VALUE TODAY
$93.72
Trading above historical range
How this is calculated: We use a Growth Decay Model: starting with analyst consensus growth (adjusted above) and gradually slowing it down to a long-term terminal rate (4%) by Year 5. This provides a more realistic valuation than assuming constant hyper-growth. We then apply a 9.8x Exit PE.
In-depth Analysis How we analyze
Valuation Analysis: TD is currently trading at $119.61, which is considered extended relative to its 30-day fair value range of $108.88 to $116.27. From a valuation perspective, the stock is trading at a premium (Forward PE: 11.0) compared to its historical average (9.8). At these levels, the market is pricing in 4.0% annual earnings growth.
Technical Outlook: Technically, TD is in a strong uptrend. The price is approaching resistance at $115.40. A breakout above this level would be a bullish signal, while rejection here could lead to consolidation.
Market Sentiment: TD has a strong technical setup (60/100), with favorable trendlines, momentum, and price action for short-term traders. The stock is fairly positioned - fine to hold existing positions or accumulate slowly on dips, but not an urgent buy.
Technical Outlook: Technically, TD is in a strong uptrend. The price is approaching resistance at $115.40. A breakout above this level would be a bullish signal, while rejection here could lead to consolidation.
Market Sentiment: TD has a strong technical setup (60/100), with favorable trendlines, momentum, and price action for short-term traders. The stock is fairly positioned - fine to hold existing positions or accumulate slowly on dips, but not an urgent buy.
Quick Decision Summary
Current Position
EXTENDED
Historical Trading Range
$108.88 -
$116.27
Company Quality Score
62/100
(BUY)
Volume Confirmation
HIGH
Confidence Score
58.1%
Protect Your Profits
TD is technically overbought (RSI 77). Consider hedging now to protect against a potential pullback while keeping your upside.
View Profit Protection PlanAll Signals
- BEARISH: Price extended above range
- BULLISH: Strong technical setup (60/100)
- BULLISH: High volume confirmation
- BEARISH: Trading above Wall St target ($110.20)
- BULLISH: Expecting earnings turnaround to 4.0% growth with -31.5% revenue growth
Trading Range Analysis
30-Day Trading Range
$108.88 -
$116.27
Current vs Trading Range
EXTENDED
Support & Resistance Levels
Support Level
$110.39
Resistance Level
$115.40
Current Trend
Strong Uptrend
Technical data as of
Jun 9, 2026
Fundamental Context
Forward P/E (Next Year Est.)
11.03
Wall Street Target
$110.20
(-7.0%)
Revenue Growth (YoY)
-31.5%
Earnings Growth (YoY)
-61.2%
Profit Margin
25.2%
Valuation Premium vs History
+4.0% premium
PE vs Historical
11.0 vs 9.8
FAIR
Market-Implied Price Targets
If current PE multiple persists
Implied Growth (YoY):
+4.0%
(market-implied from PE analysis)
1-Year Target
$123.24
(+4%)
2-Year Target
$128.17
(+8%)
3-Year Target
$133.30
(+13%)
3-Yr Target (if PE normalizes)
(PE: 11→10)
PE COMPRESSION
$118.42
(0%)
Earnings growth offset by PE compression
3-Year Scenarios
Using analyst projected EPS growth
Bull:
(PE: 21.8, Growth: 11.0%)
$320.19
(+170%)
Base:
(SPY PE: 11.0, Growth: 11.0%)
$162.17
(+37%)
Bear:
(PE: 9.4, Growth: 11.0%)
$137.84
(+16%)
📈
Valuation based on Current Earnings
RECOVERY PLAY: Stock looks expensive now (19x PE), but valuation improves significantly next year (11x PE) as earnings recover.
Trailing PE: 19.25 | Current EPS (TTM): $6.14
Bull Case
$227.50
(+92%)
Analyst growth 75.0%, PE expands to 21.2
Base Case
$206.82
(+75%)
Market implied 75.0%, PE stable at 19.3
Bear Case
$80.38
(-32%)
Severe decline -20.0%, PE contracts to 16.4
These are projections based on PE multiples and EPS growth scenarios, not predictions. Actual results may vary significantly.
Share & Embed Analysis
Last updated: June 18, 2026 2:20 PM ET
Data refreshes hourly during market hours. Next update: 3:20 PM
Data refreshes hourly during market hours. Next update: 3:20 PM
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Technical Signals Check
Is TD showing a specific setup today?
Insider Activity (6 Months)
0
Buys
0
Sells
0
Net
NEUTRAL
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Professional options setups generated by AI based on today's TD price and gamma walls.
