TPVG Stock Analysis: Buy, Sell, or Hold?
TPVG - TRIPLEPOINT VENTURE GROWTH BDC CORP.
$4.72
-0.04 (-0.84%)
▼
5d:
-12.43%
30d:
-14.65%
90d:
-2.28%
WAIT
LOW Confidence
Analysis Updated: Jun 23, 2026 12:00 AM ET
Earnings: Aug 05, 2026
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Interactive Price Chart (1 Month)
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Bottom Line:
⏸️ WAIT FOR STABILIZATION: TPVG is down 12.4% over the last 5 days. While fundamentals may be solid, catching a falling knife is risky. Wait for price to stabilize before entering.
⏸️ WAIT FOR STABILIZATION: TPVG is down 12.4% over the last 5 days. While fundamentals may be solid, catching a falling knife is risky. Wait for price to stabilize before entering.
Long-Term Wealth Forecast (2031)
Based on Analyst Consensus Growth & Historical Valuation
0% (Stagnation)
50% (Hyper Growth)
EST. PRICE IN 2031
$4.39
Based on -4.0% avg growth
INTRINSIC VALUE TODAY
$2.72
Trading above historical range
How this is calculated: We use a Growth Decay Model: starting with analyst consensus growth (adjusted above) and gradually slowing it down to a long-term terminal rate (4%) by Year 5. This provides a more realistic valuation than assuming constant hyper-growth. We then apply a 6.6x Exit PE.
In-depth Analysis How we analyze
Valuation Analysis: TPVG is currently trading at $4.72, which is considered oversold relative to its 30-day fair value range of $5.14 to $5.69. From a valuation perspective, the stock is trading at a discount (Forward PE: 5.7) compared to its historical average (6.6). Remarkably, the market is currently pricing in an annual earnings decline of 4.4% over the next few years. This aligns with recent fundamental challenges.
Technical Outlook: Technically, TPVG is in a downtrend. The price is currently testing key support at $5.36. A bounce from this level would confirm strength, while a break below could signal further downside.
Market Sentiment: The stock shows a mixed technical setup (40/100), with neutral trendline and momentum signals. In the options market, Implied Volatility is low (27th percentile), suggesting options premiums are relatively cheap. This makes it an attractive time for long options strategies if you have a directional bias. Wall Street analysts see significant upside, with an average price target of $6.17 (+30.7%). Current signals suggest waiting for a better entry point before initiating new positions.
Technical Outlook: Technically, TPVG is in a downtrend. The price is currently testing key support at $5.36. A bounce from this level would confirm strength, while a break below could signal further downside.
Market Sentiment: The stock shows a mixed technical setup (40/100), with neutral trendline and momentum signals. In the options market, Implied Volatility is low (27th percentile), suggesting options premiums are relatively cheap. This makes it an attractive time for long options strategies if you have a directional bias. Wall Street analysts see significant upside, with an average price target of $6.17 (+30.7%). Current signals suggest waiting for a better entry point before initiating new positions.
Quick Decision Summary
Current Position
OVERSOLD
Historical Trading Range
$5.14 -
$5.69
Company Quality Score
56/100
(HOLD)
Options IV Signal
27th percentile
(LOW)
Volume Confirmation
HIGH
Confidence Score
83.5%
All Signals
- BULLISH: Price oversold vs 30-day range
- BULLISH: Options cheap (IV 27th percentile)
- NEUTRAL: Mixed technical signals (40/100)
- BULLISH: High volume confirmation
- BULLISH: Trading 30.7% below Wall St target ($6.17)
- WARNING: Recommendation downgraded due to -12.4% 5-day decline - wait for stabilization
Trading Range Analysis
30-Day Trading Range
$5.14 -
$5.69
Current vs Trading Range
OVERSOLD
Expected Move (7 Days)
±$0.41
(8.7%)
Support & Resistance Levels
Support Level
$5.36
Resistance Level
$5.72
Current Trend
Downtrend
Technical data as of
Jun 9, 2026
Fundamental Context
Forward P/E (Next Year Est.)
5.74
Wall Street Target
$6.17
(+30.7%)
Revenue Growth (YoY)
1.4%
Earnings Growth (YoY)
-51.9%
Profit Margin
47.1%
Valuation Discount vs History
-4.4% cheaper
PE vs Historical
5.7 vs 6.6
CHEAP
Market-Implied Price Targets
If current PE multiple persists
Implied Growth (YoY):
-4.4%
(market-implied from PE analysis)
1-Year Target
$4.51
(-4%)
2-Year Target
$4.31
(-9%)
3-Year Target
$4.12
(-13%)
3-Yr Target (if PE normalizes)
(PE: 6→7)
$4.74
(+1%)
3-Year Scenarios
Using analyst projected EPS growth
Bull:
(PE: 21.8, Growth: -12.0%)
$13.06
(+177%)
Base:
(SPY PE: 5.7, Growth: -12.0%)
$3.44
(-27%)
Bear:
(PE: 4.9, Growth: -12.0%)
$2.92
(-38%)
📈
Valuation based on Current Earnings
Trailing PE: 4.53 | Current EPS (TTM): $1.05
Bull Case
$4.10
(-13%)
Analyst growth -21.7%, PE expands to 5.0
Base Case
$3.73
(-21%)
Market implied -21.7%, PE stable at 4.5
Bear Case
$3.24
(-31%)
Severe decline -20.0%, PE contracts to 3.9
These are projections based on PE multiples and EPS growth scenarios, not predictions. Actual results may vary significantly.
💡
Upside Surprise Potential
If earnings stabilize (0% growth), PE could expand from 5.7 to 6.6
Stabilization Target:
$5.43
(+15.0%)
PE Expansion Potential:
+15.0%
Share & Embed Analysis
Last updated: June 24, 2026 5:12 AM ET
Data refreshes hourly during market hours. Next update: 6:12 AM
Data refreshes hourly during market hours. Next update: 6:12 AM
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Technical Signals Check
Is TPVG showing a specific setup today?
Insider Activity (6 Months)
20
Buys
0
Sells
+
Net
INSIDERS BUYING
Recent Transactions
Sajal Srivastava
BUY
23799 shares
2026-01-12
James Labe
BUY
23799 shares
2026-01-12
James Labe
BUY
16000 shares
2026-01-09
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