TPVG Stock Analysis: Buy, Sell, or Hold?
TPVG - TRIPLEPOINT VENTURE GROWTH BDC CORP.
$4.66
0.14 (3.10%)
▲
5d:
+3.79%
30d:
-5.28%
90d:
-16.19%
BUY
HIGH Confidence
Analysis Updated: Jul 31, 2026 12:00 AM ET
Earnings: Aug 05, 2026
1d
Get Alerted When TPVG Hits Your Target Price
Join 10,000+ traders who never miss a move
You're in! Check your email to confirm and set your target price.
100% Free
No spam, ever
Unsubscribe anytime
Interactive Price Chart (1 Month)
Loading chart...
Loading historical data...
Bottom Line:
✅ BUY SIGNAL: TPVG trading at deep discount. Market pricing in -4.5% annual earnings decline, creating value opportunity for patient investors.
✅ BUY SIGNAL: TPVG trading at deep discount. Market pricing in -4.5% annual earnings decline, creating value opportunity for patient investors.
Long-Term Wealth Forecast (2031)
Based on Analyst Consensus Growth & Historical Valuation
0% (Stagnation)
50% (Hyper Growth)
EST. PRICE IN 2031
$4.34
Based on -3.8% avg growth
INTRINSIC VALUE TODAY
$2.70
Trading above historical range
How this is calculated: We use a Growth Decay Model: starting with analyst consensus growth (adjusted above) and gradually slowing it down to a long-term terminal rate (4%) by Year 5. This provides a more realistic valuation than assuming constant hyper-growth. We then apply a 6.4x Exit PE.
In-depth Analysis How we analyze
Valuation Analysis: TPVG is currently trading at $4.66, which is considered fair relative to its 30-day fair value range of $4.52 to $4.82. From a valuation perspective, the stock is trading at a discount (Forward PE: 5.6) compared to its historical average (6.4). Remarkably, the market is currently pricing in an annual earnings decline of 4.5% over the next few years. This aligns with recent fundamental challenges.
Technical Outlook: Technically, TPVG is in a downtrend. The price is approaching resistance at $4.73. A breakout above this level would be a bullish signal, while rejection here could lead to consolidation. The stock is showing strong short-term momentum, up 3.1% recently.
Market Sentiment: The stock shows a mixed technical setup (45/100), with neutral trendline and momentum signals. In the options market, Implied Volatility is low (0th percentile), suggesting options premiums are relatively cheap. This makes it an attractive time for long options strategies if you have a directional bias. Wall Street analysts see significant upside, with an average price target of $6.00 (+28.8%). Combining these factors, the current setup offers a favorable risk/reward ratio for buyers.
Technical Outlook: Technically, TPVG is in a downtrend. The price is approaching resistance at $4.73. A breakout above this level would be a bullish signal, while rejection here could lead to consolidation. The stock is showing strong short-term momentum, up 3.1% recently.
Market Sentiment: The stock shows a mixed technical setup (45/100), with neutral trendline and momentum signals. In the options market, Implied Volatility is low (0th percentile), suggesting options premiums are relatively cheap. This makes it an attractive time for long options strategies if you have a directional bias. Wall Street analysts see significant upside, with an average price target of $6.00 (+28.8%). Combining these factors, the current setup offers a favorable risk/reward ratio for buyers.
Quick Decision Summary
Current Position
FAIR
Historical Trading Range
$4.52 -
$4.82
Company Quality Score
51/100
(HOLD)
Volume Confirmation
HIGH
Confidence Score
81.5%
All Signals
- NEUTRAL: Price in fair range
- BULLISH: Options cheap (IV 0th percentile)
- NEUTRAL: Mixed technical signals (45/100)
- BULLISH: High volume confirmation
- BULLISH: Strong upward momentum (+3.1%)
- BULLISH: Trading 28.8% below Wall St target ($6.00)
Trading Range Analysis
30-Day Trading Range
$4.52 -
$4.82
Current vs Trading Range
FAIR
Expected Move (7 Days)
±$0.27
(5.8%)
Support & Resistance Levels
Support Level
$4.40
Resistance Level
$4.73
Current Trend
Downtrend
Technical data as of
Aug 3, 2026
Fundamental Context
Forward P/E (Next Year Est.)
5.60
Wall Street Target
$6.00
(+28.8%)
Revenue Growth (YoY)
1.4%
Earnings Growth (YoY)
-51.9%
Profit Margin
47.1%
Valuation Discount vs History
-4.5% cheaper
PE vs Historical
5.6 vs 6.4
CHEAP
Market-Implied Price Targets
If current PE multiple persists
Implied Growth (YoY):
-4.5%
(market-implied from PE analysis)
1-Year Target
$4.45
(-5%)
2-Year Target
$4.25
(-9%)
3-Year Target
$4.06
(-13%)
3-Yr Target (if PE normalizes)
(PE: 6→6)
$4.64
(0%)
3-Year Scenarios
Using analyst projected EPS growth
Bull:
(PE: 20.7, Growth: -11.7%)
$12.58
(+170%)
Base:
(SPY PE: 5.6, Growth: -11.7%)
$3.40
(-27%)
Bear:
(PE: 4.8, Growth: -11.7%)
$2.89
(-38%)
📈
Valuation based on Current Earnings
Trailing PE: 4.30 | Current EPS (TTM): $1.05
Bull Case
$3.94
(-15%)
Analyst growth -20.7%, PE expands to 4.7
Base Case
$3.58
(-23%)
Market implied -20.7%, PE stable at 4.3
Bear Case
$3.07
(-34%)
Severe decline -20.0%, PE contracts to 3.7
These are projections based on PE multiples and EPS growth scenarios, not predictions. Actual results may vary significantly.
💡
Upside Surprise Potential
If earnings stabilize (0% growth), PE could expand from 5.6 to 6.4
Stabilization Target:
$5.33
(+14.3%)
PE Expansion Potential:
+14.3%
Share & Embed Analysis
Last updated: August 03, 2026 6:08 PM ET
Data refreshes hourly during market hours. Next update: 7:08 PM
Data refreshes hourly during market hours. Next update: 7:08 PM
🔥 Top Stocks Breaking Out Now
| Ticker | Score | Recommendation | Change % |
|---|
Technical Signals Check
Is TPVG showing a specific setup today?
Insider Activity (6 Months)
0
Buys
0
Sells
0
Net
NEUTRAL
Top Rated Asset Management Stocks
Top-rated stocks in Asset Management by analyst ratings.
| Stock | Analyst Consensus | Analyst Target | Tradestie Score |
|---|---|---|---|
|
KKR
KKR & Co. Inc. |
STRONG BUY
21 analysts |
$126 | 60 HOLD |
|
APO
Apollo Global Management… |
STRONG BUY
19 analysts |
$148 | 54 HOLD |
|
HASI
Hannon Armstrong Sustain… |
STRONG BUY
16 analysts |
$49 | 53 HOLD |
|
BX
Blackstone Group Inc |
HOLD
23 analysts |
$142 | 58 HOLD |
|
OWL
Blue Owl Capital Inc |
STRONG BUY
15 analysts |
$12 | 55 HOLD |
