TPVG Stock Analysis: Buy, Sell, or Hold?
TPVG - TRIPLEPOINT VENTURE GROWTH BDC CORP.
$4.90
0.02 (0.41%)
▲
5d:
+1.45%
30d:
-8.24%
90d:
+2.3%
HOLD
LOW Confidence
Analysis Updated: Oct 2, 2026 12:00 AM ET
Earnings: Nov 04, 2026
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Interactive Price Chart (1 Month)
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Bottom Line:
📊 HOLD: TPVG shows mixed signals. Fine to hold existing positions. Not urgent to buy or sell.
📊 HOLD: TPVG shows mixed signals. Fine to hold existing positions. Not urgent to buy or sell.
Long-Term Wealth Forecast (2031)
Based on Analyst Consensus Growth & Historical Valuation
0% (Stagnation)
50% (Hyper Growth)
EST. PRICE IN 2031
$5.01
Based on -0.8% avg growth
INTRINSIC VALUE TODAY
$3.11
Trading above historical range
How this is calculated: We use a Growth Decay Model: starting with analyst consensus growth (adjusted above) and gradually slowing it down to a long-term terminal rate (4%) by Year 5. This provides a more realistic valuation than assuming constant hyper-growth. We then apply a 6.4x Exit PE.
In-depth Analysis How we analyze
Valuation Analysis: TPVG is currently trading at $4.90, which is considered slightly low relative to its 30-day fair value range of $4.86 to $5.31. The stock's valuation (Forward PE: 6.0) is in line with its historical norms (6.4). Remarkably, the market is currently pricing in an annual earnings decline of 2.2% over the next few years. This aligns with recent fundamental challenges.
Technical Outlook: Technically, TPVG is in a downtrend. The price is approaching resistance at $5.01. A breakout above this level would be a bullish signal, while rejection here could lead to consolidation.
Market Sentiment: TPVG scores 79/100 on our bottoming-setup gauge — the chart has corrected and is stabilizing (RSI reset, momentum turning up), historically a favorable entry zone. In the options market, Implied Volatility is low (21th percentile), suggesting options premiums are relatively cheap. This makes it an attractive time for long options strategies if you have a directional bias. Wall Street analysts see significant upside, with an average price target of $5.83 (+19.0%). The stock is fairly positioned - fine to hold existing positions or accumulate slowly on dips, but not an urgent buy.
Technical Outlook: Technically, TPVG is in a downtrend. The price is approaching resistance at $5.01. A breakout above this level would be a bullish signal, while rejection here could lead to consolidation.
Market Sentiment: TPVG scores 79/100 on our bottoming-setup gauge — the chart has corrected and is stabilizing (RSI reset, momentum turning up), historically a favorable entry zone. In the options market, Implied Volatility is low (21th percentile), suggesting options premiums are relatively cheap. This makes it an attractive time for long options strategies if you have a directional bias. Wall Street analysts see significant upside, with an average price target of $5.83 (+19.0%). The stock is fairly positioned - fine to hold existing positions or accumulate slowly on dips, but not an urgent buy.
Quick Decision Summary
Current Position
SLIGHTLY LOW
Historical Trading Range
$4.86 -
$5.31
Company Quality Score
55/100
(HOLD)
Options IV Signal
21th percentile
(LOW)
Volume Confirmation
HIGH
Confidence Score
90.4%
All Signals
- BULLISH: Price oversold vs 30-day range
- BULLISH: Options cheap (IV 21th percentile)
- BULLISH: Strong technical setup (79/100)
- BULLISH: High volume confirmation
- BULLISH: Trading below Wall St target ($5.83)
- CAUTION: Bottoming setup, but lagging the sector by 23% over 20 days — wait for relative strength
Trading Range Analysis
30-Day Trading Range
$4.86 -
$5.31
Current vs Trading Range
SLIGHTLY LOW
Expected Move (7 Days)
±$0.46
(9.4%)
Support & Resistance Levels
Support Level
$4.71
Resistance Level
$5.02
Current Trend
Downtrend
Technical data as of
Oct 2, 2026
Fundamental Context
Forward P/E (Next Year Est.)
5.98
Wall Street Target
$5.83
(+19.0%)
Revenue Growth (YoY)
-5.2%
Earnings Growth (YoY)
-19.8%
Profit Margin
44.9%
Valuation Discount vs History
-2.2% cheaper
PE vs Historical
6.0 vs 6.4
FAIR
Market-Implied Price Targets
If current PE multiple persists
Implied Growth (YoY):
-2.2%
(market-implied from PE analysis)
1-Year Target
$4.79
(-2%)
2-Year Target
$4.69
(-4%)
3-Year Target
$4.58
(-7%)
3-Yr Target (if PE normalizes)
(PE: 6→6)
$4.91
(+0%)
3-Year Scenarios
Using analyst projected EPS growth
Bull:
(PE: 20.4, Growth: -5.7%)
$14.01
(+186%)
Base:
(SPY PE: 6.0, Growth: -5.7%)
$4.10
(-16%)
Bear:
(PE: 5.1, Growth: -5.7%)
$3.49
(-29%)
📈
Valuation based on Current Earnings
Trailing PE: 4.93 | Current EPS (TTM): $0.99
Bull Case
$4.45
(-9%)
Analyst growth -17.2%, PE expands to 5.4
Base Case
$4.04
(-18%)
Market implied -17.2%, PE stable at 4.9
Bear Case
$3.32
(-32%)
Severe decline -20.0%, PE contracts to 4.2
These are projections based on PE multiples and EPS growth scenarios, not predictions. Actual results may vary significantly.
💡
Upside Surprise Potential
If earnings stabilize (0% growth), PE could expand from 6.0 to 6.4
Stabilization Target:
$5.25
(+7.1%)
PE Expansion Potential:
+7.1%
Share & Embed Analysis
Last updated: October 03, 2026 7:36 AM ET
Data refreshes hourly during market hours. Next update: 8:36 AM
Data refreshes hourly during market hours. Next update: 8:36 AM
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Technical Signals Check
Is TPVG showing a specific setup today?
Insider Activity (6 Months)
0
Buys
0
Sells
0
Net
NEUTRAL
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