TPVG Stock Analysis: Buy, Sell, or Hold?
TPVG - TRIPLEPOINT VENTURE GROWTH BDC CORP.
$5.16
0.02 (0.39%)
â˛
5d:
-3.73%
30d:
-4.62%
90d:
-6.52%
WAIT
LOW Confidence
Analysis Updated: Sep 11, 2026 12:00 AM ET
Earnings: Nov 04, 2026
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Interactive Price Chart (1 Month)
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Bottom Line:
âšī¸ NEUTRAL: TPVG is fairly priced but lacks strong directional signals. At -0.7% expected growth, valuation appears fair. Wait for clearer setup or better entry on dips.
âšī¸ NEUTRAL: TPVG is fairly priced but lacks strong directional signals. At -0.7% expected growth, valuation appears fair. Wait for clearer setup or better entry on dips.
Long-Term Wealth Forecast (2031)
Based on Analyst Consensus Growth & Historical Valuation
0% (Stagnation)
50% (Hyper Growth)
EST. PRICE IN 2031
$5.01
Based on -0.8% avg growth
INTRINSIC VALUE TODAY
$3.11
Trading above historical range
How this is calculated: We use a Growth Decay Model: starting with analyst consensus growth (adjusted above) and gradually slowing it down to a long-term terminal rate (4%) by Year 5. This provides a more realistic valuation than assuming constant hyper-growth. We then apply a 6.4x Exit PE.
In-depth Analysis How we analyze
Valuation Analysis: TPVG is currently trading at $5.16, which is considered slightly low relative to its 30-day fair value range of $5.13 to $5.47. The stock's valuation (Forward PE: 6.3) is in line with its historical norms (6.4). Remarkably, the market is currently pricing in an annual earnings decline of 0.7% over the next few years. This aligns with recent fundamental challenges.
Technical Outlook: Technically, TPVG is in a downtrend. The price is currently testing key support at $5.08. A bounce from this level would confirm strength, while a break below could signal further downside.
Market Sentiment: TPVG scores 39/100 on our bottoming-setup gauge. Note this measures entry quality, not trend direction — a low score can mean the chart is extended after a strong run (don't chase) or still falling without stabilization; better entries typically come after a pullback toward the 20-day average. Wall Street analysts see significant upside, with an average price target of $5.83 (+13.0%). Current signals suggest waiting for a better entry point before initiating new positions.
Technical Outlook: Technically, TPVG is in a downtrend. The price is currently testing key support at $5.08. A bounce from this level would confirm strength, while a break below could signal further downside.
Market Sentiment: TPVG scores 39/100 on our bottoming-setup gauge. Note this measures entry quality, not trend direction — a low score can mean the chart is extended after a strong run (don't chase) or still falling without stabilization; better entries typically come after a pullback toward the 20-day average. Wall Street analysts see significant upside, with an average price target of $5.83 (+13.0%). Current signals suggest waiting for a better entry point before initiating new positions.
Quick Decision Summary
Current Position
SLIGHTLY LOW
Historical Trading Range
$5.13 -
$5.47
Company Quality Score
47/100
(HOLD)
Volume Confirmation
HIGH
Confidence Score
54.8%
All Signals
- BULLISH: Price oversold vs 30-day range
- BEARISH: Weak technical setup (39/100)
- BULLISH: High volume confirmation
- BULLISH: Trading below Wall St target ($5.83)
- WARNING: Composite score 47/100 in the bottom quintile â this cohort historically lags the market
Trading Range Analysis
30-Day Trading Range
$5.13 -
$5.47
Current vs Trading Range
SLIGHTLY LOW
Support & Resistance Levels
Support Level
$5.08
Resistance Level
$5.52
Current Trend
Downtrend
Technical data as of
Sep 11, 2026
Fundamental Context
Forward P/E (Next Year Est.)
6.29
Wall Street Target
$5.83
(+13.0%)
Revenue Growth (YoY)
-5.2%
Earnings Growth (YoY)
-19.8%
Profit Margin
44.9%
Valuation Discount vs History
-0.7% cheaper
PE vs Historical
6.3 vs 6.4
FAIR
Market-Implied Price Targets
If current PE multiple persists
Implied Growth (YoY):
-0.7%
(market-implied from PE analysis)
1-Year Target
$5.12
(-1%)
2-Year Target
$5.09
(-1%)
3-Year Target
$5.05
(-2%)
3-Yr Target (if PE normalizes)
(PE: 6â6)
$5.14
(0%)
3-Year Scenarios
Using analyst projected EPS growth
Bull:
(PE: 20.2, Growth: -5.7%)
$13.85
(+168%)
Base:
(SPY PE: 6.3, Growth: -5.7%)
$4.32
(-16%)
Bear:
(PE: 5.3, Growth: -5.7%)
$3.67
(-29%)
đ
Valuation based on Current Earnings
Trailing PE: 5.24 | Current EPS (TTM): $0.98
Bull Case
$4.73
(-8%)
Analyst growth -16.3%, PE expands to 5.8
Base Case
$4.30
(-17%)
Market implied -16.3%, PE stable at 5.2
Bear Case
$3.50
(-32%)
Severe decline -20.0%, PE contracts to 4.5
These are projections based on PE multiples and EPS growth scenarios, not predictions. Actual results may vary significantly.
đĄ
Upside Surprise Potential
If earnings stabilize (0% growth), PE could expand from 6.3 to 6.4
Stabilization Target:
$5.25
(+1.7%)
PE Expansion Potential:
+1.7%
Share & Embed Analysis
Last updated: September 13, 2026 12:37 AM ET
Data refreshes hourly during market hours. Next update: 1:37 AM
Data refreshes hourly during market hours. Next update: 1:37 AM
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Technical Signals Check
Is TPVG showing a specific setup today?
Insider Activity (6 Months)
0
Buys
0
Sells
0
Net
NEUTRAL
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