TROW Stock Analysis: Buy, Sell, or Hold?
TROW - T Rowe Price Group Inc
$106.00
-1.99 (-1.84%)
▼
5d:
-2.4%
30d:
+3.97%
90d:
+20.48%
BUY
MODERATE Confidence
Analysis Updated: Jun 23, 2026 12:00 AM ET
Earnings: Aug 07, 2026
Smart Money Accumulation
None View Scanner →
Strength: 5.2/10
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Interactive Price Chart (1 Month)
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Bottom Line:
💡 BUY OPPORTUNITY: TROW shows positive signals but monitor for confirmation. Market pricing in 3.3% annual growth which appears achievable. Moderate conviction.
💡 BUY OPPORTUNITY: TROW shows positive signals but monitor for confirmation. Market pricing in 3.3% annual growth which appears achievable. Moderate conviction.
Long-Term Wealth Forecast (2031)
Based on Analyst Consensus Growth & Historical Valuation
0% (Stagnation)
50% (Hyper Growth)
EST. PRICE IN 2031
$109.29
Based on 2.6% avg growth
INTRINSIC VALUE TODAY
$67.86
Trading above historical range
How this is calculated: We use a Growth Decay Model: starting with analyst consensus growth (adjusted above) and gradually slowing it down to a long-term terminal rate (4%) by Year 5. This provides a more realistic valuation than assuming constant hyper-growth. We then apply a 10.0x Exit PE.
In-depth Analysis How we analyze
Valuation Analysis: TROW is currently trading at $106.00, which is considered fair relative to its 30-day fair value range of $102.93 to $107.71. The stock's valuation (Forward PE: 11.0) is in line with its historical norms (10.0). At these levels, the market is pricing in 3.3% annual earnings growth. This growth rate appears achievable given the company's track record, suggesting the valuation is rational.
Technical Outlook: Technically, TROW is in a uptrend. The price is approaching resistance at $108.20. A breakout above this level would be a bullish signal, while rejection here could lead to consolidation.
Market Sentiment: The stock shows a mixed technical setup (55/100), with neutral trendline and momentum signals. Combining these factors, the current setup offers a favorable risk/reward ratio for buyers.
Technical Outlook: Technically, TROW is in a uptrend. The price is approaching resistance at $108.20. A breakout above this level would be a bullish signal, while rejection here could lead to consolidation.
Market Sentiment: The stock shows a mixed technical setup (55/100), with neutral trendline and momentum signals. Combining these factors, the current setup offers a favorable risk/reward ratio for buyers.
Quick Decision Summary
Current Position
FAIR
Historical Trading Range
$102.93 -
$107.71
Company Quality Score
57/100
(HOLD)
Volume Confirmation
HIGH
Confidence Score
66.2%
All Signals
- NEUTRAL: Price in fair range
- NEUTRAL: Mixed technical signals (55/100)
- BULLISH: High volume confirmation
- BEARISH: Trading above Wall St target ($97.83)
- NEUTRAL: Market pricing in 3.3% annual earnings growth - fairly valued
Trading Range Analysis
30-Day Trading Range
$102.93 -
$107.71
Current vs Trading Range
FAIR
Support & Resistance Levels
Support Level
$101.64
Resistance Level
$108.20
Current Trend
Uptrend
Technical data as of
Jun 9, 2026
Fundamental Context
Forward P/E (Next Year Est.)
11.00
Wall Street Target
$97.83
(-7.7%)
Revenue Growth (YoY)
5.3%
Earnings Growth (YoY)
3.7%
Profit Margin
28.3%
Valuation Premium vs History
+3.3% premium
PE vs Historical
11.0 vs 10.0
FAIR
Market-Implied Price Targets
If current PE multiple persists
Implied Growth (YoY):
+3.3%
(market-implied from PE analysis)
1-Year Target
$109.50
(+3%)
2-Year Target
$113.11
(+7%)
3-Year Target
$116.84
(+10%)
3-Yr Target (if PE normalizes)
(PE: 11→10)
PE COMPRESSION
$106.25
(+0%)
Earnings growth offset by PE compression
3-Year Scenarios
Using analyst projected EPS growth
Bull:
(PE: 21.8, Growth: 1.1%)
$216.95
(+105%)
Base:
(SPY PE: 11.0, Growth: 1.1%)
$109.54
(+3%)
Bear:
(PE: 9.3, Growth: 1.1%)
$93.11
(-12%)
📈
Valuation based on Current Earnings
RECOVERY PLAY: Stock looks expensive now (12x PE), but valuation improves significantly next year (11x PE) as earnings recover.
Trailing PE: 11.55 | Current EPS (TTM): $9.32
Bull Case
$122.46
(+13%)
Analyst growth 3.4%, PE expands to 12.7
Base Case
$111.33
(+3%)
Market implied 3.4%, PE stable at 11.6
Bear Case
$73.20
(-32%)
Severe decline -20.0%, PE contracts to 9.8
These are projections based on PE multiples and EPS growth scenarios, not predictions. Actual results may vary significantly.
Share & Embed Analysis
Last updated: June 23, 2026 5:06 PM ET
Data refreshes hourly during market hours. Next update: 6:06 PM
Data refreshes hourly during market hours. Next update: 6:06 PM
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Technical Signals Check
Is TROW showing a specific setup today?
Insider Activity (6 Months)
0
Buys
3
Sells
Net
INSIDERS SELLING
Recent Transactions
Ro Khanna
SELL
2026-03-23
Kevin Hern
SELL
2026-03-20
Ro Khanna
SELL
2026-02-24
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