T Rowe Price Group (TROW) Stock: Buy, Sell, or Hold?
TROW - T Rowe Price Group Inc
$105.83
1.78 (1.71%)
▲
5d:
+1.5%
30d:
-2.89%
90d:
-10.73%
HOLD
LOW Confidence
Analysis Updated: Oct 1, 2026 12:00 AM ET
Earnings: Oct 30, 2026
27d
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Interactive Price Chart (1 Month)
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Bottom Line:
📊 HOLD: TROW shows mixed signals. Fine to hold existing positions. Not urgent to buy or sell.
📊 HOLD: TROW shows mixed signals. Fine to hold existing positions. Not urgent to buy or sell.
Long-Term Wealth Forecast (2031)
Based on Analyst Consensus Growth & Historical Valuation
0% (Stagnation)
50% (Hyper Growth)
EST. PRICE IN 2031
$206.94
Based on 14.5% avg growth
INTRINSIC VALUE TODAY
$128.50
17.6% Margin of Safety
How this is calculated: We use a Growth Decay Model: starting with analyst consensus growth (adjusted above) and gradually slowing it down to a long-term terminal rate (4%) by Year 5. This provides a more realistic valuation than assuming constant hyper-growth. We then apply a 10.3x Exit PE.
In-depth Analysis How we analyze
Valuation Analysis: TROW is currently trading at $105.83, which is considered fair relative to its 30-day fair value range of $103.95 to $110.58. The stock's valuation (Forward PE: 10.3) is in line with its historical norms (10.3). Remarkably, the market is currently pricing in an annual earnings decline of 0.1% over the next few years. This pessimistic expectation contrasts with the company's recent 28.6% earnings growth, suggesting potential undervaluation if the company simply maintains stability.
Technical Outlook: Technically, TROW is showing sideways momentum. The price is approaching resistance at $106.39. A breakout above this level would be a bullish signal, while rejection here could lead to consolidation.
Market Sentiment: TROW scores 76/100 on our bottoming-setup gauge — the chart has corrected and is stabilizing (RSI reset, momentum turning up), historically a favorable entry zone. The stock is fairly positioned - fine to hold existing positions or accumulate slowly on dips, but not an urgent buy.
Technical Outlook: Technically, TROW is showing sideways momentum. The price is approaching resistance at $106.39. A breakout above this level would be a bullish signal, while rejection here could lead to consolidation.
Market Sentiment: TROW scores 76/100 on our bottoming-setup gauge — the chart has corrected and is stabilizing (RSI reset, momentum turning up), historically a favorable entry zone. The stock is fairly positioned - fine to hold existing positions or accumulate slowly on dips, but not an urgent buy.
Quick Decision Summary
Current Position
FAIR
Historical Trading Range
$103.95 -
$110.58
Company Quality Score
60/100
(BUY)
Volume Confirmation
HIGH
Confidence Score
78.6%
Protect Your Profits
Holding TROW? Use our AI-powered strategies to protect your downside while keeping your long-term position.
View Profit Protection PlanAll Signals
- NEUTRAL: Price in fair range
- BULLISH: Strong technical setup (76/100)
- BULLISH: High volume confirmation
- NEUTRAL: Near Wall St target ($108.83)
- CAUTION: Bottoming setup, but lagging the sector by 15% over 20 days — wait for relative strength
Trading Range Analysis
30-Day Trading Range
$103.95 -
$110.58
Current vs Trading Range
FAIR
Support & Resistance Levels
Support Level
$102.18
Resistance Level
$106.39
Current Trend
Sideways
Technical data as of
Oct 1, 2026
Fundamental Context
Forward P/E (Next Year Est.)
10.26
Wall Street Target
$108.83
(+2.8%)
Revenue Growth (YoY)
10.7%
Earnings Growth (YoY)
28.6%
Profit Margin
29.3%
Valuation Discount vs History
-0.1% cheaper
PE vs Historical
10.3 vs 10.3
FAIR
Market-Implied Price Targets
If current PE multiple persists
Implied Growth (YoY):
-0.1%
(market-implied from PE analysis)
1-Year Target
$105.72
(0%)
2-Year Target
$105.62
(0%)
3-Year Target
$105.51
(0%)
3-Yr Target (if PE normalizes)
(PE: 10→10)
$105.95
(+0%)
3-Year Scenarios
Using analyst projected EPS growth
Bull:
(PE: 20.4, Growth: 98.5%)
$216.75
(+105%)
Base:
(SPY PE: 10.3, Growth: 98.5%)
$108.99
(+3%)
Bear:
(PE: 8.7, Growth: 98.5%)
$92.64
(-13%)
📈
Valuation based on Current Earnings
RECOVERY PLAY: Stock looks expensive now (10x PE), but valuation improves significantly next year (10x PE) as earnings recover.
Trailing PE: 10.49 | Current EPS (TTM): $9.92
Bull Case
$119.04
(+13%)
Analyst growth 4.0%, PE expands to 11.5
Base Case
$108.22
(+2%)
Market implied 4.0%, PE stable at 10.5
Bear Case
$70.75
(-33%)
Severe decline -20.0%, PE contracts to 8.9
These are projections based on PE multiples and EPS growth scenarios, not predictions. Actual results may vary significantly.
💡
Upside Surprise Potential
If earnings stabilize (0% growth), PE could expand from 10.3 to 10.3
Stabilization Target:
$106.27
(+0.4%)
PE Expansion Potential:
+0.4%
Share & Embed Analysis
Last updated: October 02, 2026 8:32 AM ET
Data refreshes hourly during market hours. Next update: 9:32 AM
Data refreshes hourly during market hours. Next update: 9:32 AM
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Technical Signals Check
Is TROW showing a specific setup today?
Insider Activity (6 Months)
0
Buys
0
Sells
0
Net
NEUTRAL
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