Is TROW stock a Buy, Sell, or Hold?

Based on our analysis, TROW is currently a HOLD with moderate confidence. 📊 HOLD: TROW is fairly valued with market pricing in 1.9% annual growth. Fine to hold or accumulate slowly on dips.

What is the fair value of TROW stock?

Our analysis estimates the fair value range for TROW to be between $113.57 and $118.98. The current price is $110.56.

What is the analyst price target for TROW?

The average Wall Street analyst price target for TROW is $109.92. This implies a potential upside of -1.2% from current levels.

TROW Stock Analysis: Buy, Sell, or Hold?

TROW - T Rowe Price Group Inc

INVESTMENT ADVICE

$110.56

-0.74 (-0.66%) ▼

5d: -3.03%

30d: -6.99%

90d: +7.96%

HOLD

MODERATE Confidence

Protect Your TROW Gains

Analysis Updated: Aug 14, 2026 12:00 AM ET

Earnings: Jul 31, 2026 0d

Smart Money Distribution

Options positioning is turning defensive after a sharp run-up - a pattern consistent with institutional profit-taking. View Scanner →

Signal fired Aug 13, 2026 at $110.06 · last confirmed Aug 14, 2026

Strength: 4.1/10

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Interactive Price Chart (1 Month)

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💡

Bottom Line:
📊 HOLD: TROW is fairly valued with market pricing in 1.9% annual growth. Fine to hold or accumulate slowly on dips.

See Forward Earnings Fair Value & Price Prediction →

Long-Term Wealth Forecast (2031)

Based on Analyst Consensus Growth & Historical Valuation

Adjust Growth Assumption: 25.0%

0% (Stagnation) 50% (Hyper Growth)

EST. PRICE IN 2031

$204.20

Based on 14.5% avg growth

INTRINSIC VALUE TODAY

$126.79

12.8% Margin of Safety

How this is calculated: We use a Growth Decay Model: starting with analyst consensus growth (adjusted above) and gradually slowing it down to a long-term terminal rate (4%) by Year 5. This provides a more realistic valuation than assuming constant hyper-growth. We then apply a 10.2x Exit PE.

View Full DCF Model

In-depth Analysis How we analyze

Valuation Analysis: TROW is currently trading at $110.56, which is considered oversold relative to its 30-day fair value range of $113.57 to $118.98. The stock's valuation (Forward PE: 10.8) is in line with its historical norms (10.2). At these levels, the market is pricing in 1.9% annual earnings growth. This growth rate appears achievable given the company's track record, suggesting the valuation is rational.

Technical Outlook: Technically, TROW is in a strong uptrend. The price is currently testing key support at $109.73. A bounce from this level would confirm strength, while a break below could signal further downside.

Market Sentiment: The stock scores a mixed 55/100 on our bottoming-setup gauge, with only partial signs of a stabilized entry point. The stock is fairly positioned - fine to hold existing positions or accumulate slowly on dips, but not an urgent buy.

Quick Decision Summary

Current Position OVERSOLD

Historical Trading Range $113.57 - $118.98

Company Quality Score 61/100 (BUY)

Volume Confirmation HIGH

Confidence Score 75.7%

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All Signals

BULLISH: Price oversold vs 30-day range
NEUTRAL: Mixed technical signals (55/100)
BULLISH: High volume confirmation
NEUTRAL: Near Wall St target ($109.92)
NEUTRAL: Market pricing in 1.9% annual earnings growth - fairly valued
NEUTRAL: Bottoming setup forming (55/100) — watch for confirmation

Trading Range Analysis

30-Day Trading Range $113.57 - $118.98

Current vs Trading Range OVERSOLD

Support & Resistance Levels

Support Level $109.73

Resistance Level $116.92

Current Trend Strong Uptrend

Technical data as of Aug 14, 2026

Fundamental Context

Forward P/E (Next Year Est.) 10.83

Wall Street Target $109.92 (-1.2%)

Revenue Growth (YoY) 10.7%

Earnings Growth (YoY) 28.6%

Profit Margin 29.3%

Valuation Premium vs History +1.9% premium

PE vs Historical 10.8 vs 10.2 FAIR

Market-Implied Price Targets If current PE multiple persists

Implied Growth (YoY): +1.9% (market-implied from PE analysis)

1-Year Target $113.41 (+2%)

2-Year Target $115.57 (+4%)

3-Year Target $117.77 (+6%)

3-Yr Target (if PE normalizes) (PE: 11→10) PE COMPRESSION $110.95 (0%)

Earnings growth offset by PE compression

3-Year Scenarios Using analyst projected EPS growth

Bull: (PE: 20.2, Growth: 75.6%) $212.72 (+91%)

Base: (SPY PE: 10.8, Growth: 75.6%) $113.84 (+2%)

Bear: (PE: 9.2, Growth: 75.6%) $96.77 (-13%)

📈 Valuation based on Current Earnings

RECOVERY PLAY: Stock looks expensive now (11x PE), but valuation improves significantly next year (11x PE) as earnings recover.

Trailing PE: 11.42 | Current EPS (TTM): $9.76

Bull Case $129.10 (+17%)

Analyst growth 5.3%, PE expands to 12.6

Base Case $117.36 (+6%)

Market implied 5.3%, PE stable at 11.4

Bear Case $75.77 (-32%)

Severe decline -20.0%, PE contracts to 9.7

These are projections based on PE multiples and EPS growth scenarios, not predictions. Actual results may vary significantly.

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Last updated: August 16, 2026 2:47 AM ET
Data refreshes hourly during market hours. Next update: 3:47 AM

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Technical Signals Check

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Insider Activity (6 Months)

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INSIDERS SELLING

Recent Transactions

Ro Khanna SELL 2026-03-23

Kevin Hern SELL 2026-03-20

Ro Khanna SELL 2026-02-24

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Advanced TROW Option Strategies

Professional options setups generated by AI based on today's TROW price and gamma walls.

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