TROW Stock Analysis: Buy, Sell, or Hold?
TROW - T Rowe Price Group Inc
$118.55
1.50 (1.28%)
▲
5d:
+0.0%
30d:
+11.93%
90d:
+28.63%
HOLD
MODERATE Confidence
Analysis Updated: Jul 10, 2026 12:00 AM ET
Earnings: Aug 07, 2026
26d
Smart Money Distribution
None View Scanner →
Strength: 6.1/10
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1 traders called TROW this week
100% bullish • 0 bearish
100% bullish • 0 bearish
Interactive Price Chart (1 Month)
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Bottom Line:
📊 HOLD: TROW trades at premium valuation expecting 5.3% growth. Hold existing positions but don't chase. Wait for better entry.
📊 HOLD: TROW trades at premium valuation expecting 5.3% growth. Hold existing positions but don't chase. Wait for better entry.
Long-Term Wealth Forecast (2031)
Based on Analyst Consensus Growth & Historical Valuation
0% (Stagnation)
50% (Hyper Growth)
EST. PRICE IN 2031
$116.91
Based on 2.9% avg growth
INTRINSIC VALUE TODAY
$72.59
Trading above historical range
How this is calculated: We use a Growth Decay Model: starting with analyst consensus growth (adjusted above) and gradually slowing it down to a long-term terminal rate (4%) by Year 5. This provides a more realistic valuation than assuming constant hyper-growth. We then apply a 10.1x Exit PE.
In-depth Analysis How we analyze
Valuation Analysis: TROW is currently trading at $118.55, which is considered extended relative to its 30-day fair value range of $104.96 to $115.43. From a valuation perspective, the stock is trading at a premium (Forward PE: 11.8) compared to its historical average (10.1). At these levels, the market is pricing in 5.3% annual earnings growth. This growth rate appears achievable given the company's track record, suggesting the valuation is rational.
Technical Outlook: Technically, TROW is in a uptrend. The price is approaching resistance at $108.20. A breakout above this level would be a bullish signal, while rejection here could lead to consolidation.
Market Sentiment: TROW has a strong technical setup (60/100), with favorable trendlines, momentum, and price action for short-term traders. However, the stock is trading significantly above the average Wall Street target of $104.08. The stock is fairly positioned - fine to hold existing positions or accumulate slowly on dips, but not an urgent buy.
Technical Outlook: Technically, TROW is in a uptrend. The price is approaching resistance at $108.20. A breakout above this level would be a bullish signal, while rejection here could lead to consolidation.
Market Sentiment: TROW has a strong technical setup (60/100), with favorable trendlines, momentum, and price action for short-term traders. However, the stock is trading significantly above the average Wall Street target of $104.08. The stock is fairly positioned - fine to hold existing positions or accumulate slowly on dips, but not an urgent buy.
Quick Decision Summary
Current Position
EXTENDED
Historical Trading Range
$104.96 -
$115.43
Company Quality Score
58/100
(HOLD)
Volume Confirmation
HIGH
Confidence Score
51.4%
Protect Your Profits
Holding TROW? Use our AI-powered strategies to protect your downside while keeping your long-term position.
View Profit Protection PlanAll Signals
- BEARISH: Price extended above range
- BULLISH: Strong technical setup (60/100)
- BULLISH: High volume confirmation
- BEARISH: Trading 12.2% above Wall St target ($104.08)
- NEUTRAL: Trading at premium valuation - market expects 5.3% growth which is achievable
Trading Range Analysis
30-Day Trading Range
$104.96 -
$115.43
Current vs Trading Range
EXTENDED
Support & Resistance Levels
Support Level
$101.64
Resistance Level
$108.20
Current Trend
Uptrend
Technical data as of
Jun 9, 2026
Fundamental Context
Forward P/E (Next Year Est.)
11.81
Wall Street Target
$104.08
(-12.2%)
Revenue Growth (YoY)
5.3%
Earnings Growth (YoY)
3.7%
Profit Margin
28.3%
Valuation Premium vs History
+5.3% premium
PE vs Historical
11.8 vs 10.1
STRETCHED
Market-Implied Price Targets
If current PE multiple persists
Implied Growth (YoY):
+5.3%
(market-implied from PE analysis)
1-Year Target
$124.83
(+5%)
2-Year Target
$131.45
(+11%)
3-Year Target
$138.42
(+17%)
3-Yr Target (if PE normalizes)
(PE: 12→10)
PE COMPRESSION
$118.33
(0%)
Earnings growth offset by PE compression
3-Year Scenarios
Using analyst projected EPS growth
Bull:
(PE: 21.8, Growth: 1.8%)
$230.40
(+94%)
Base:
(SPY PE: 11.8, Growth: 1.8%)
$124.98
(+5%)
Bear:
(PE: 10.0, Growth: 1.8%)
$106.23
(-10%)
📈
Valuation based on Current Earnings
RECOVERY PLAY: Stock looks expensive now (13x PE), but valuation improves significantly next year (12x PE) as earnings recover.
Trailing PE: 12.65 | Current EPS (TTM): $9.25
Bull Case
$139.68
(+18%)
Analyst growth 8.5%, PE expands to 13.9
Base Case
$126.98
(+7%)
Market implied 8.5%, PE stable at 12.7
Bear Case
$79.59
(-33%)
Severe decline -20.0%, PE contracts to 10.8
These are projections based on PE multiples and EPS growth scenarios, not predictions. Actual results may vary significantly.
Share & Embed Analysis
Last updated: July 11, 2026 3:50 AM ET
Data refreshes hourly during market hours. Next update: 4:50 AM
Data refreshes hourly during market hours. Next update: 4:50 AM
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Technical Signals Check
Is TROW showing a specific setup today?
Insider Activity (6 Months)
0
Buys
3
Sells
Net
INSIDERS SELLING
Recent Transactions
Ro Khanna
SELL
2026-03-23
Kevin Hern
SELL
2026-03-20
Ro Khanna
SELL
2026-02-24
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