TROW Stock Analysis: Buy, Sell, or Hold?
TROW - T Rowe Price Group Inc
$111.75
-7.53 (-6.31%)
▼
5d:
-4.08%
30d:
-3.76%
90d:
+8.62%
BUY
MODERATE Confidence
Analysis Updated: Jul 31, 2026 12:00 AM ET
Earnings: Jul 31, 2026
0d
Smart Money Distribution
None View Scanner →
Strength: 6.8/10
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Interactive Price Chart (1 Month)
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Bottom Line:
💡 BUY OPPORTUNITY: TROW shows positive signals but monitor for confirmation. Market pricing in 1.9% annual growth which appears achievable. Moderate conviction.
💡 BUY OPPORTUNITY: TROW shows positive signals but monitor for confirmation. Market pricing in 1.9% annual growth which appears achievable. Moderate conviction.
Long-Term Wealth Forecast (2031)
Based on Analyst Consensus Growth & Historical Valuation
0% (Stagnation)
50% (Hyper Growth)
EST. PRICE IN 2031
$122.09
Based on 2.9% avg growth
INTRINSIC VALUE TODAY
$75.81
Trading above historical range
How this is calculated: We use a Growth Decay Model: starting with analyst consensus growth (adjusted above) and gradually slowing it down to a long-term terminal rate (4%) by Year 5. This provides a more realistic valuation than assuming constant hyper-growth. We then apply a 10.2x Exit PE.
In-depth Analysis How we analyze
Valuation Analysis: TROW is currently trading at $111.75, which is considered slightly low relative to its 30-day fair value range of $111.07 to $119.84. The stock's valuation (Forward PE: 10.8) is in line with its historical norms (10.2). At these levels, the market is pricing in 1.9% annual earnings growth. This growth rate appears achievable given the company's track record, suggesting the valuation is rational.
Technical Outlook: Technically, TROW is in a strong uptrend. The price is currently testing key support at $110.25. A bounce from this level would confirm strength, while a break below could signal further downside. Short-term momentum is weak, with the stock down 6.3% recently.
Market Sentiment: The stock shows a mixed technical setup (40/100), with neutral trendline and momentum signals. Combining these factors, the current setup offers a favorable risk/reward ratio for buyers.
Technical Outlook: Technically, TROW is in a strong uptrend. The price is currently testing key support at $110.25. A bounce from this level would confirm strength, while a break below could signal further downside. Short-term momentum is weak, with the stock down 6.3% recently.
Market Sentiment: The stock shows a mixed technical setup (40/100), with neutral trendline and momentum signals. Combining these factors, the current setup offers a favorable risk/reward ratio for buyers.
Quick Decision Summary
Current Position
SLIGHTLY LOW
Historical Trading Range
$111.07 -
$119.84
Company Quality Score
54/100
(HOLD)
Volume Confirmation
HIGH
Confidence Score
71.0%
All Signals
- BULLISH: Price oversold vs 30-day range
- NEUTRAL: Mixed technical signals (40/100)
- BULLISH: High volume confirmation
- BEARISH: Downward momentum (-6.3%)
- NEUTRAL: Near Wall St target ($110.58)
- NEUTRAL: Market pricing in 1.9% annual earnings growth - fairly valued
Trading Range Analysis
30-Day Trading Range
$111.07 -
$119.84
Current vs Trading Range
SLIGHTLY LOW
Support & Resistance Levels
Support Level
$110.25
Resistance Level
$122.00
Current Trend
Strong Uptrend
Technical data as of
Jul 31, 2026
Fundamental Context
Forward P/E (Next Year Est.)
10.80
Wall Street Target
$110.58
(-1.0%)
Revenue Growth (YoY)
5.3%
Earnings Growth (YoY)
3.7%
Profit Margin
28.3%
Valuation Premium vs History
+1.9% premium
PE vs Historical
10.8 vs 10.2
FAIR
Market-Implied Price Targets
If current PE multiple persists
Implied Growth (YoY):
+1.9%
(market-implied from PE analysis)
1-Year Target
$113.87
(+2%)
2-Year Target
$116.04
(+4%)
3-Year Target
$118.24
(+6%)
3-Yr Target (if PE normalizes)
(PE: 11→10)
PE COMPRESSION
$111.72
(0%)
Earnings growth offset by PE compression
3-Year Scenarios
Using analyst projected EPS growth
Bull:
(PE: 20.7, Growth: 1.9%)
$227.12
(+103%)
Base:
(SPY PE: 10.8, Growth: 1.9%)
$118.27
(+6%)
Bear:
(PE: 9.2, Growth: 1.9%)
$100.53
(-10%)
📈
Valuation based on Current Earnings
RECOVERY PLAY: Stock looks expensive now (13x PE), but valuation improves significantly next year (11x PE) as earnings recover.
Trailing PE: 12.76 | Current EPS (TTM): $9.35
Bull Case
$145.26
(+30%)
Analyst growth 10.7%, PE expands to 14.0
Base Case
$132.06
(+18%)
Market implied 10.7%, PE stable at 12.8
Bear Case
$81.11
(-27%)
Severe decline -20.0%, PE contracts to 10.8
These are projections based on PE multiples and EPS growth scenarios, not predictions. Actual results may vary significantly.
Share & Embed Analysis
Last updated: August 02, 2026 11:25 PM ET
Data refreshes hourly during market hours. Next update: 12:25 AM
Data refreshes hourly during market hours. Next update: 12:25 AM
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Technical Signals Check
Is TROW showing a specific setup today?
Insider Activity (6 Months)
0
Buys
3
Sells
Net
INSIDERS SELLING
Recent Transactions
Ro Khanna
SELL
2026-03-23
Kevin Hern
SELL
2026-03-20
Ro Khanna
SELL
2026-02-24
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