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T Rowe Price Group (TROW) Stock: Buy, Sell, or Hold?

TROW - T Rowe Price Group Inc

INVESTMENT ADVICE
$106.29
-1.26 (-1.17%) ▼
5d: -4.14%
30d: -4.6%
90d: -1.83%
WAIT
LOW Confidence
Protect Your TROW Gains
Analysis Updated: Sep 11, 2026 12:00 AM ET
Earnings: Oct 30, 2026
Smart Money Accumulation

Options open interest is building while the stock consolidates - a pattern consistent with institutional accumulation. View Scanner →

Signal fired Sep 4, 2026 at $109.78 · last confirmed Sep 9, 2026

Strength: 6.6/10

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Interactive Price Chart (1 Month)

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💡
Bottom Line:
📊 MIXED SIGNALS: TROW shows conflicting indicators. Wait for confirmation before entering.
See Forward Earnings Fair Value & Price Prediction →

Long-Term Wealth Forecast (2031)

Based on Analyst Consensus Growth & Historical Valuation

0% (Stagnation) 50% (Hyper Growth)
EST. PRICE IN 2031
$206.94
Based on 14.5% avg growth
INTRINSIC VALUE TODAY
$128.50
17.3% Margin of Safety

How this is calculated: We use a Growth Decay Model: starting with analyst consensus growth (adjusted above) and gradually slowing it down to a long-term terminal rate (4%) by Year 5. This provides a more realistic valuation than assuming constant hyper-growth. We then apply a 10.3x Exit PE.

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In-depth Analysis How we analyze

Valuation Analysis: TROW is currently trading at $106.29, which is considered oversold relative to its 30-day fair value range of $109.25 to $113.65. The stock's valuation (Forward PE: 10.3) is in line with its historical norms (10.3). At these levels, the market is pricing in 0.0% annual earnings growth. This growth rate appears achievable given the company's track record, suggesting the valuation is rational.

Technical Outlook: Technically, TROW is in a strong uptrend. The price is currently testing key support at $105.61. A bounce from this level would confirm strength, while a break below could signal further downside.

Market Sentiment: The stock scores a mixed 44/100 on our bottoming-setup gauge, with only partial signs of a stabilized entry point. Current signals suggest waiting for a better entry point before initiating new positions.

Quick Decision Summary

Current Position OVERSOLD
Historical Trading Range $109.25 - $113.65
Company Quality Score 52/100 (HOLD)
Volume Confirmation HIGH
Confidence Score 75.7%

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All Signals

  • BULLISH: Price oversold vs 30-day range
  • NEUTRAL: Mixed technical signals (44/100)
  • BULLISH: High volume confirmation
  • NEUTRAL: Near Wall St target ($109.33)
  • NEUTRAL: Market pricing in 0.0% annual earnings growth - fairly valued
  • WARNING: Composite score 52/100 in the bottom quintile — this cohort historically lags the market

Trading Range Analysis

30-Day Trading Range $109.25 - $113.65
Current vs Trading Range OVERSOLD

Support & Resistance Levels

Support Level $105.61
Resistance Level $113.34
Current Trend Strong Uptrend
Technical data as of Sep 11, 2026

Fundamental Context

Forward P/E (Next Year Est.) 10.30
Wall Street Target $109.33 (+2.9%)
Revenue Growth (YoY) 10.7%
Earnings Growth (YoY) 28.6%
Profit Margin 29.3%
PE vs Historical 10.3 vs 10.3 FAIR
Market-Implied Price Targets If current PE multiple persists
Implied Growth (YoY): 0% (market-implied from PE analysis)
1-Year Target $106.29 (0%)
2-Year Target $106.29 (0%)
3-Year Target $106.29 (0%)
3-Yr Target (if PE normalizes) (PE: 10→10) PE COMPRESSION $106.27 (0%)
Earnings growth offset by PE compression
3-Year Scenarios Using analyst projected EPS growth
Bull: (PE: 20.2, Growth: 86.3%) $213.54 (+101%)
Base: (SPY PE: 10.3, Growth: 86.3%) $109.07 (+3%)
Bear: (PE: 8.8, Growth: 86.3%) $92.71 (-13%)
📈 Valuation based on Current Earnings
RECOVERY PLAY: Stock looks expensive now (11x PE), but valuation improves significantly next year (10x PE) as earnings recover.
Trailing PE: 10.82 | Current EPS (TTM): $9.94
Bull Case $122.80 (+16%)
Analyst growth 3.8%, PE expands to 11.9
Base Case $111.63 (+5%)
Market implied 3.8%, PE stable at 10.8
Bear Case $73.13 (-31%)
Severe decline -20.0%, PE contracts to 9.2
These are projections based on PE multiples and EPS growth scenarios, not predictions. Actual results may vary significantly.
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Last updated: September 12, 2026 6:40 AM ET
Data refreshes hourly during market hours. Next update: 7:40 AM
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Technical Signals Check

Is TROW showing a specific setup today?

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Insider Activity (6 Months)
0
Buys
2
Sells
Net
INSIDERS SELLING
Recent Transactions
Ro Khanna SELL 2026-03-23
Kevin Hern SELL 2026-03-20

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Advanced TROW Option Strategies

Professional options setups generated by AI based on today's TROW price and gamma walls.

Iron Condor Bull Call Bear Put Collar

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