TRTX Stock Analysis: Buy, Sell, or Hold?
TRTX - TPG RE Finance Trust, Inc. Common Stock
$8.60
0.09 (1.06%)
▲
5d:
+0.23%
30d:
+5.39%
90d:
+7.23%
HOLD
MODERATE Confidence
Analysis Updated: Jun 18, 2026 12:00 AM ET
Earnings: Aug 04, 2026
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Interactive Price Chart (1 Month)
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Bottom Line:
📊 HOLD: TRTX shows mixed signals. Fine to hold existing positions. Not urgent to buy or sell.
📊 HOLD: TRTX shows mixed signals. Fine to hold existing positions. Not urgent to buy or sell.
Long-Term Wealth Forecast (2031)
Based on Analyst Consensus Growth & Historical Valuation
0% (Stagnation)
50% (Hyper Growth)
EST. PRICE IN 2031
$11.88
Based on 6.6% avg growth
INTRINSIC VALUE TODAY
$7.37
Trading above historical range
How this is calculated: We use a Growth Decay Model: starting with analyst consensus growth (adjusted above) and gradually slowing it down to a long-term terminal rate (4%) by Year 5. This provides a more realistic valuation than assuming constant hyper-growth. We then apply a 7.6x Exit PE.
In-depth Analysis How we analyze
Valuation Analysis: TRTX is currently trading at $8.60, which is considered extended relative to its 30-day fair value range of $8.26 to $8.54. The stock's valuation (Forward PE: 7.6) is in line with its historical norms (7.6). Remarkably, the market is currently pricing in an annual earnings decline of 0.2% over the next few years. This pessimistic expectation contrasts with the company's recent 58.3% earnings growth, suggesting potential undervaluation if the company simply maintains stability.
Technical Outlook: Technically, TRTX is in a downtrend. The price is approaching resistance at $8.58. A breakout above this level would be a bullish signal, while rejection here could lead to consolidation.
Market Sentiment: TRTX has a strong technical setup (75/100), with favorable trendlines, momentum, and price action for short-term traders. Wall Street analysts see significant upside, with an average price target of $10.00 (+16.3%). The stock is fairly positioned - fine to hold existing positions or accumulate slowly on dips, but not an urgent buy.
Technical Outlook: Technically, TRTX is in a downtrend. The price is approaching resistance at $8.58. A breakout above this level would be a bullish signal, while rejection here could lead to consolidation.
Market Sentiment: TRTX has a strong technical setup (75/100), with favorable trendlines, momentum, and price action for short-term traders. Wall Street analysts see significant upside, with an average price target of $10.00 (+16.3%). The stock is fairly positioned - fine to hold existing positions or accumulate slowly on dips, but not an urgent buy.
Quick Decision Summary
Current Position
EXTENDED
Historical Trading Range
$8.26 -
$8.54
Company Quality Score
64/100
(BUY)
Volume Confirmation
HIGH
Confidence Score
59.5%
All Signals
- BEARISH: Price extended above range
- BULLISH: Strong technical setup (75/100)
- BULLISH: High volume confirmation
- BULLISH: Trading below Wall St target ($10.00)
Trading Range Analysis
30-Day Trading Range
$8.26 -
$8.54
Current vs Trading Range
EXTENDED
Support & Resistance Levels
Support Level
$8.28
Resistance Level
$8.58
Current Trend
Downtrend
Technical data as of
Jun 9, 2026
Fundamental Context
Forward P/E (Next Year Est.)
7.57
Wall Street Target
$10.00
(+16.3%)
Revenue Growth (YoY)
11.9%
Earnings Growth (YoY)
58.3%
Profit Margin
48.1%
Valuation Discount vs History
-0.2% cheaper
PE vs Historical
7.6 vs 7.6
FAIR
Market-Implied Price Targets
If current PE multiple persists
Implied Growth (YoY):
-0.2%
(market-implied from PE analysis)
1-Year Target
$8.58
(0%)
2-Year Target
$8.57
(0%)
3-Year Target
$8.55
(-1%)
3-Yr Target (if PE normalizes)
(PE: 8→8)
$8.58
(0%)
3-Year Scenarios
Using analyst projected EPS growth
Bull:
(PE: 21.8, Growth: 9.2%)
$32.25
(+275%)
Base:
(SPY PE: 7.6, Growth: 9.2%)
$11.21
(+30%)
Bear:
(PE: 6.4, Growth: 9.2%)
$9.53
(+11%)
📈
Valuation based on Current Earnings
RECOVERY PLAY: Stock looks expensive now (13x PE), but valuation improves significantly next year (8x PE) as earnings recover.
Trailing PE: 13.41 | Current EPS (TTM): $0.64
Bull Case
$16.75
(+95%)
Analyst growth 77.5%, PE expands to 14.8
Base Case
$15.23
(+77%)
Market implied 77.5%, PE stable at 13.4
Bear Case
$5.83
(-32%)
Severe decline -20.0%, PE contracts to 11.4
These are projections based on PE multiples and EPS growth scenarios, not predictions. Actual results may vary significantly.
💡
Upside Surprise Potential
If earnings stabilize (0% growth), PE could expand from 7.6 to 7.6
Stabilization Target:
$8.63
(+0.4%)
PE Expansion Potential:
+0.4%
Share & Embed Analysis
Last updated: June 20, 2026 5:06 AM ET
Data refreshes hourly during market hours. Next update: 6:06 AM
Data refreshes hourly during market hours. Next update: 6:06 AM
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Technical Signals Check
Is TRTX showing a specific setup today?
Insider Activity (6 Months)
0
Buys
0
Sells
0
Net
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