TPG RE Finance Trust (TRTX) Stock: Buy, Sell, or Hold?
TRTX - TPG RE Finance Trust, Inc. Common Stock
$7.42
-0.06 (-0.80%)
▼
5d:
-5.48%
30d:
-6.67%
90d:
-13.52%
WAIT
LOW Confidence
Analysis Updated: Sep 11, 2026 12:00 AM ET
Earnings: Oct 27, 2026
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Interactive Price Chart (1 Month)
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Bottom Line:
📊 MIXED SIGNALS: TRTX shows conflicting indicators. Wait for confirmation before entering.
📊 MIXED SIGNALS: TRTX shows conflicting indicators. Wait for confirmation before entering.
Long-Term Wealth Forecast (2031)
Based on Analyst Consensus Growth & Historical Valuation
0% (Stagnation)
50% (Hyper Growth)
EST. PRICE IN 2031
$12.12
Based on 7.8% avg growth
INTRINSIC VALUE TODAY
$7.53
1.4% Margin of Safety
How this is calculated: We use a Growth Decay Model: starting with analyst consensus growth (adjusted above) and gradually slowing it down to a long-term terminal rate (4%) by Year 5. This provides a more realistic valuation than assuming constant hyper-growth. We then apply a 7.5x Exit PE.
In-depth Analysis How we analyze
Valuation Analysis: TRTX is currently trading at $7.42, which is considered oversold relative to its 30-day fair value range of $7.68 to $7.98. From a valuation perspective, the stock is trading at a discount (Forward PE: 6.7) compared to its historical average (7.5). Remarkably, the market is currently pricing in an annual earnings decline of 3.9% over the next few years. This aligns with recent fundamental challenges.
Technical Outlook: Technically, TRTX is in a downtrend. The price is currently testing key support at $7.42. A bounce from this level would confirm strength, while a break below could signal further downside.
Market Sentiment: TRTX scores 35/100 on our bottoming-setup gauge. Note this measures entry quality, not trend direction — a low score can mean the chart is extended after a strong run (don't chase) or still falling without stabilization; better entries typically come after a pullback toward the 20-day average. Wall Street analysts see significant upside, with an average price target of $9.88 (+33.1%). Current signals suggest waiting for a better entry point before initiating new positions.
Technical Outlook: Technically, TRTX is in a downtrend. The price is currently testing key support at $7.42. A bounce from this level would confirm strength, while a break below could signal further downside.
Market Sentiment: TRTX scores 35/100 on our bottoming-setup gauge. Note this measures entry quality, not trend direction — a low score can mean the chart is extended after a strong run (don't chase) or still falling without stabilization; better entries typically come after a pullback toward the 20-day average. Wall Street analysts see significant upside, with an average price target of $9.88 (+33.1%). Current signals suggest waiting for a better entry point before initiating new positions.
Quick Decision Summary
Current Position
OVERSOLD
Historical Trading Range
$7.68 -
$7.98
Company Quality Score
43/100
(HOLD)
Volume Confirmation
HIGH
Confidence Score
57.1%
All Signals
- BULLISH: Price oversold vs 30-day range
- BEARISH: Weak technical setup (35/100)
- BULLISH: High volume confirmation
- BULLISH: Trading 33.1% below Wall St target ($9.88)
- WARNING: Composite score 43/100 in the bottom quintile — this cohort historically lags the market
Trading Range Analysis
30-Day Trading Range
$7.68 -
$7.98
Current vs Trading Range
OVERSOLD
Support & Resistance Levels
Support Level
$7.42
Resistance Level
$7.93
Current Trend
Downtrend
Technical data as of
Sep 11, 2026
Fundamental Context
Forward P/E (Next Year Est.)
6.67
Wall Street Target
$9.88
(+33.1%)
Revenue Growth (YoY)
-11.6%
Earnings Growth (YoY)
-42.9%
Profit Margin
43.9%
Valuation Discount vs History
-3.9% cheaper
PE vs Historical
6.7 vs 7.5
CHEAP
Market-Implied Price Targets
If current PE multiple persists
Implied Growth (YoY):
-3.9%
(market-implied from PE analysis)
1-Year Target
$7.13
(-4%)
2-Year Target
$6.85
(-8%)
3-Year Target
$6.59
(-11%)
3-Yr Target (if PE normalizes)
(PE: 7→8)
$7.40
(0%)
3-Year Scenarios
Using analyst projected EPS growth
Bull:
(PE: 20.2, Growth: 11.6%)
$31.21
(+321%)
Base:
(SPY PE: 6.7, Growth: 11.6%)
$10.33
(+39%)
Bear:
(PE: 5.7, Growth: 11.6%)
$8.78
(+18%)
📈
Valuation based on Current Earnings
RECOVERY PLAY: Stock looks expensive now (14x PE), but valuation improves significantly next year (7x PE) as earnings recover.
Trailing PE: 13.60 | Current EPS (TTM): $0.55
Bull Case
$16.46
(+122%)
Analyst growth 100.0%, PE expands to 15.0
Base Case
$14.96
(+102%)
Market implied 100.0%, PE stable at 13.6
Bear Case
$5.09
(-32%)
Severe decline -20.0%, PE contracts to 11.6
These are projections based on PE multiples and EPS growth scenarios, not predictions. Actual results may vary significantly.
💡
Upside Surprise Potential
If earnings stabilize (0% growth), PE could expand from 6.7 to 7.5
Stabilization Target:
$8.34
(+12.4%)
PE Expansion Potential:
+12.4%
Share & Embed Analysis
Last updated: September 12, 2026 1:26 AM ET
Data refreshes hourly during market hours. Next update: 2:26 AM
Data refreshes hourly during market hours. Next update: 2:26 AM
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Technical Signals Check
Is TRTX showing a specific setup today?
Insider Activity (6 Months)
0
Buys
0
Sells
0
Net
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