TPG RE Finance Trust (TRTX) Stock: Buy, Sell, or Hold?
TRTX - TPG RE Finance Trust, Inc. Common Stock
$5.85
-0.01 (-0.17%)
▼
5d:
+3.72%
30d:
-18.64%
90d:
-31.18%
BUY
HIGH Confidence
Analysis Updated: Oct 21, 2026 12:00 AM ET
Earnings: Nov 26, 2026
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Interactive Price Chart (1 Month)
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Bottom Line:
✅ BUY SIGNAL: TRTX trading at deep discount. Market pricing in -10.4% annual earnings decline, creating value opportunity for patient investors.
✅ BUY SIGNAL: TRTX trading at deep discount. Market pricing in -10.4% annual earnings decline, creating value opportunity for patient investors.
Long-Term Wealth Forecast (2031)
Based on Analyst Consensus Growth & Historical Valuation
0% (Stagnation)
50% (Hyper Growth)
EST. PRICE IN 2031
$11.97
Based on 8.1% avg growth
INTRINSIC VALUE TODAY
$7.43
21.3% Margin of Safety
How this is calculated: We use a Growth Decay Model: starting with analyst consensus growth (adjusted above) and gradually slowing it down to a long-term terminal rate (4%) by Year 5. This provides a more realistic valuation than assuming constant hyper-growth. We then apply a 7.3x Exit PE.
In-depth Analysis How we analyze
Valuation Analysis: TRTX is currently trading at $5.85, which is considered slightly low relative to its 30-day fair value range of $5.80 to $6.96. From a valuation perspective, the stock is trading at a discount (Forward PE: 5.2) compared to its historical average (7.3). Remarkably, the market is currently pricing in an annual earnings decline of 10.4% over the next few years. This aligns with recent fundamental challenges.
Technical Outlook: Technically, TRTX is in a strong downtrend. The price is approaching resistance at $6.02. A breakout above this level would be a bullish signal, while rejection here could lead to consolidation.
Market Sentiment: TRTX scores 79/100 on our bottoming-setup gauge — the chart has corrected and is stabilizing (RSI reset, momentum turning up), historically a favorable entry zone. Wall Street analysts see significant upside, with an average price target of $9.54 (+63.1%). Combining these factors, the current setup offers a favorable risk/reward ratio for buyers.
Technical Outlook: Technically, TRTX is in a strong downtrend. The price is approaching resistance at $6.02. A breakout above this level would be a bullish signal, while rejection here could lead to consolidation.
Market Sentiment: TRTX scores 79/100 on our bottoming-setup gauge — the chart has corrected and is stabilizing (RSI reset, momentum turning up), historically a favorable entry zone. Wall Street analysts see significant upside, with an average price target of $9.54 (+63.1%). Combining these factors, the current setup offers a favorable risk/reward ratio for buyers.
Quick Decision Summary
Current Position
SLIGHTLY LOW
Historical Trading Range
$5.80 -
$6.96
Company Quality Score
55/100
(HOLD)
Volume Confirmation
HIGH
Confidence Score
90.5%
All Signals
- BULLISH: Price oversold vs 30-day range
- BULLISH: Strong technical setup (79/100)
- BULLISH: High volume confirmation
- BULLISH: Trading 63.1% below Wall St target ($9.54)
- BULLISH: Bottoming setup score 79/100 — corrected, stabilizing, and turning up
Trading Range Analysis
30-Day Trading Range
$5.80 -
$6.96
Current vs Trading Range
SLIGHTLY LOW
Support & Resistance Levels
Support Level
$5.60
Resistance Level
$6.02
Current Trend
Strong Downtrend
Technical data as of
Oct 21, 2026
Fundamental Context
Forward P/E (Next Year Est.)
5.25
Wall Street Target
$9.54
(+63.1%)
Revenue Growth (YoY)
-11.6%
Earnings Growth (YoY)
-42.9%
Profit Margin
43.9%
Valuation Discount vs History
-10.4% cheaper
PE vs Historical
5.3 vs 7.3
CHEAP
Market-Implied Price Targets
If current PE multiple persists
Implied Growth (YoY):
-10.4%
(market-implied from PE analysis)
1-Year Target
$5.26
(-10%)
2-Year Target
$4.74
(-19%)
3-Year Target
$4.26
(-27%)
3-Yr Target (if PE normalizes)
(PE: 5→7)
$5.93
(+1%)
3-Year Scenarios
Using analyst projected EPS growth
Bull:
(PE: 19.9, Growth: 12.1%)
$31.16
(+433%)
Base:
(SPY PE: 5.2, Growth: 12.1%)
$8.23
(+41%)
Bear:
(PE: 4.5, Growth: 12.1%)
$7.00
(+20%)
📈
Valuation based on Current Earnings
RECOVERY PLAY: Stock looks expensive now (11x PE), but valuation improves significantly next year (5x PE) as earnings recover.
Trailing PE: 10.63 | Current EPS (TTM): $0.55
Bull Case
$12.86
(+120%)
Analyst growth 100.0%, PE expands to 11.7
Base Case
$11.69
(+100%)
Market implied 100.0%, PE stable at 10.6
Bear Case
$3.98
(-32%)
Severe decline -20.0%, PE contracts to 9.0
These are projections based on PE multiples and EPS growth scenarios, not predictions. Actual results may vary significantly.
💡
Upside Surprise Potential
If earnings stabilize (0% growth), PE could expand from 5.2 to 7.3
Stabilization Target:
$8.14
(+39.1%)
PE Expansion Potential:
+39.1%
Share & Embed Analysis
Last updated: October 22, 2026 8:51 AM ET
Data refreshes hourly during market hours. Next update: 9:51 AM
Data refreshes hourly during market hours. Next update: 9:51 AM
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Technical Signals Check
Is TRTX showing a specific setup today?
Insider Activity (6 Months)
0
Buys
0
Sells
0
Net
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