TPG RE Finance Trust (TRTX) Stock: Buy, Sell, or Hold?
$6.68
+0.13 (+1.91%)
▲
5d:
-8.06%
30d:
+15.68%
90d:
-16.77%
QUANTITATIVE VERDICT
WAIT
LOW Confidence (51%)
Quality Score
40/100
Position
EXTENDED
30-Day Fair Range
$5.82 – $6.60
Position: EXTENDED
Forward P/E & Valuation
5.9x
CHEAP
vs 7.2x historical avg
Wall Street Target
$9.46
+44.4% upside
Options IV & Volume
HIGH Vol
HIGH volume confirmation
Support / Resistance
$6.30 / $7.45
Trend: Strong Downtrend
Executive Thesis & Bottom Line
Forward Earnings Fair Value & Price Prediction →
📊 MIXED SIGNALS: TRTX shows conflicting indicators. Wait for confirmation before entering.
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Interactive Price Chart (1 Month)
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Long-Term Wealth Forecast (2031)
Based on Analyst Consensus Growth & Historical Valuation
0% (Stagnation)
50% (Hyper Growth)
EST. PRICE IN 2031
$14.34
Based on 12.7% avg growth
INTRINSIC VALUE TODAY
$8.90
25.0% Margin of Safety
How this is calculated: We use a Growth Decay Model: starting with analyst consensus growth (adjusted above) and gradually slowing it down to a long-term terminal rate (4%) by Year 5. This provides a more realistic valuation than assuming constant hyper-growth. We then apply a 7.2x Exit PE.
In-depth Analysis How we analyze
Valuation Analysis: TRTX is currently trading at $6.67, which is considered extended relative to its 30-day fair value range of $5.82 to $6.60. From a valuation perspective, the stock is trading at a discount (Forward PE: 5.9) compared to its historical average (7.2). Remarkably, the market is currently pricing in an annual earnings decline of 6.3% over the next few years. This aligns with recent fundamental challenges.
Technical Outlook: Technically, TRTX is in a strong downtrend. Immediate support is located at $6.30, while resistance sits at $7.45.
Market Sentiment: The stock scores a mixed 44/100 on our bottoming-setup gauge, with only partial signs of a stabilized entry point. Wall Street analysts see significant upside, with an average price target of $9.46 (+44.4%). Current signals suggest waiting for a better entry point before initiating new positions.
Technical Outlook: Technically, TRTX is in a strong downtrend. Immediate support is located at $6.30, while resistance sits at $7.45.
Market Sentiment: The stock scores a mixed 44/100 on our bottoming-setup gauge, with only partial signs of a stabilized entry point. Wall Street analysts see significant upside, with an average price target of $9.46 (+44.4%). Current signals suggest waiting for a better entry point before initiating new positions.
Quick Decision Summary
Current Position
EXTENDED
Historical Trading Range
$5.82 -
$6.60
Company Quality Score
40/100
(HOLD)
Volume Confirmation
HIGH
Confidence Score
51.0%
Trading Range & Key Levels
30-Day Trading Range
$5.82 -
$6.60
Current vs Trading Range
EXTENDED
Support Level
$6.30
Resistance Level
$7.45
Current Trend
Strong Downtrend
Technical data as of
Nov 10, 2026
Quantitative Signal Breakdown
- BEARISH: Price extended above range
- NEUTRAL: Mixed technical signals (44/100)
- BULLISH: High volume confirmation
- BULLISH: Trading 44.4% below Wall St target ($9.46)
- WARNING: Composite score 40/100 in the bottom quintile — this cohort historically lags the market
Fundamental Context
Forward P/E (Next Year Est.)
5.92
Wall Street Target
$9.46
(+44.4%)
Revenue Growth (YoY)
-32.4%
Earnings Growth (YoY)
-66.9%
Profit Margin
38.1%
Valuation Discount vs History
-6.3% cheaper
PE vs Historical
5.9 vs 7.2
CHEAP
Market-Implied Price Targets
If current PE multiple persists
Implied Growth (YoY):
-6.3%
(market-implied from PE analysis)
1-Year Target
$6.14
(-6%)
2-Year Target
$5.75
(-12%)
3-Year Target
$5.39
(-18%)
3-Yr Target (if PE normalizes)
(PE: 6→7)
$6.55
(0%)
3-Year Scenarios
Using analyst projected EPS growth
Bull:
(PE: 19.9, Growth: 21.3%)
$39.18
(+498%)
Base:
(SPY PE: 5.9, Growth: 21.3%)
$11.68
(+78%)
Bear:
(PE: 5.0, Growth: 21.3%)
$9.93
(+52%)
📈
Valuation based on Current Earnings
RECOVERY PLAY: Stock looks expensive now (17x PE), but valuation improves significantly next year (6x PE) as earnings recover.
Trailing PE: 17.28 | Current EPS (TTM): $0.39
Bull Case
$14.83
(+126%)
Analyst growth 100.0%, PE expands to 19.0
Base Case
$13.48
(+106%)
Market implied 100.0%, PE stable at 17.3
Bear Case
$4.58
(-30%)
Severe decline -20.0%, PE contracts to 14.7
These are projections based on PE multiples and EPS growth scenarios, not predictions. Actual results may vary significantly.
💡
Upside Surprise Potential
If earnings stabilize (0% growth), PE could expand from 5.9 to 7.2
Stabilization Target:
$7.96
(+21.6%)
PE Expansion Potential:
+21.6%
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Last updated: November 11, 2026 1:47 PM ET
Data refreshes hourly during market hours. Next update: 2:47 PM
Data refreshes hourly during market hours. Next update: 2:47 PM
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Insider Activity (6 Months)
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