TRTX Stock Analysis: Buy, Sell, or Hold?
TRTX - TPG RE Finance Trust, Inc. Common Stock
$7.97
-0.21 (-2.57%)
▼
5d:
-7.54%
30d:
-5.9%
90d:
-5.79%
HOLD
LOW Confidence
Analysis Updated: Jul 31, 2026 12:00 AM ET
Earnings: Jul 28, 2026
0d
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Interactive Price Chart (1 Month)
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Bottom Line:
📊 HOLD: TRTX shows mixed signals. Fine to hold existing positions. Not urgent to buy or sell.
📊 HOLD: TRTX shows mixed signals. Fine to hold existing positions. Not urgent to buy or sell.
Long-Term Wealth Forecast (2031)
Based on Analyst Consensus Growth & Historical Valuation
0% (Stagnation)
50% (Hyper Growth)
EST. PRICE IN 2031
$12.72
Based on 7.9% avg growth
INTRINSIC VALUE TODAY
$7.90
Trading above historical range
How this is calculated: We use a Growth Decay Model: starting with analyst consensus growth (adjusted above) and gradually slowing it down to a long-term terminal rate (4%) by Year 5. This provides a more realistic valuation than assuming constant hyper-growth. We then apply a 7.6x Exit PE.
In-depth Analysis How we analyze
Valuation Analysis: TRTX is currently trading at $7.97, which is considered oversold relative to its 30-day fair value range of $8.39 to $8.65. The stock's valuation (Forward PE: 7.0) is in line with its historical norms (7.6). Remarkably, the market is currently pricing in an annual earnings decline of 2.9% over the next few years. This aligns with recent fundamental challenges.
Technical Outlook: Technically, TRTX is in a uptrend. The price is currently testing key support at $7.92. A bounce from this level would confirm strength, while a break below could signal further downside.
Market Sentiment: The stock shows a mixed technical setup (40/100), with neutral trendline and momentum signals. Wall Street analysts see significant upside, with an average price target of $10.08 (+26.5%). The stock is fairly positioned - fine to hold existing positions or accumulate slowly on dips, but not an urgent buy.
Technical Outlook: Technically, TRTX is in a uptrend. The price is currently testing key support at $7.92. A bounce from this level would confirm strength, while a break below could signal further downside.
Market Sentiment: The stock shows a mixed technical setup (40/100), with neutral trendline and momentum signals. Wall Street analysts see significant upside, with an average price target of $10.08 (+26.5%). The stock is fairly positioned - fine to hold existing positions or accumulate slowly on dips, but not an urgent buy.
Quick Decision Summary
Current Position
OVERSOLD
Historical Trading Range
$8.39 -
$8.65
Company Quality Score
50/100
(HOLD)
Volume Confirmation
HIGH
Confidence Score
79.5%
All Signals
- BULLISH: Price oversold vs 30-day range
- NEUTRAL: Mixed technical signals (40/100)
- BULLISH: High volume confirmation
- BULLISH: Trading 26.5% below Wall St target ($10.08)
- CAUTION: Recommendation downgraded due to -7.5% 5-day decline
Trading Range Analysis
30-Day Trading Range
$8.39 -
$8.65
Current vs Trading Range
OVERSOLD
Support & Resistance Levels
Support Level
$7.93
Resistance Level
$8.79
Current Trend
Uptrend
Technical data as of
Jul 31, 2026
Fundamental Context
Forward P/E (Next Year Est.)
6.95
Wall Street Target
$10.08
(+26.5%)
Revenue Growth (YoY)
-11.6%
Earnings Growth (YoY)
-42.9%
Profit Margin
43.9%
Valuation Discount vs History
-2.9% cheaper
PE vs Historical
7.0 vs 7.6
FAIR
Market-Implied Price Targets
If current PE multiple persists
Implied Growth (YoY):
-2.9%
(market-implied from PE analysis)
1-Year Target
$7.74
(-3%)
2-Year Target
$7.51
(-6%)
3-Year Target
$7.30
(-9%)
3-Yr Target (if PE normalizes)
(PE: 7→8)
$7.97
(0%)
3-Year Scenarios
Using analyst projected EPS growth
Bull:
(PE: 20.7, Growth: 11.8%)
$33.20
(+317%)
Base:
(SPY PE: 7.0, Growth: 11.8%)
$11.14
(+40%)
Bear:
(PE: 5.9, Growth: 11.8%)
$9.47
(+19%)
📈
Valuation based on Current Earnings
RECOVERY PLAY: Stock looks expensive now (15x PE), but valuation improves significantly next year (7x PE) as earnings recover.
Trailing PE: 14.87 | Current EPS (TTM): $0.55
Bull Case
$18.00
(+126%)
Analyst growth 100.0%, PE expands to 16.4
Base Case
$16.36
(+105%)
Market implied 100.0%, PE stable at 14.9
Bear Case
$5.56
(-30%)
Severe decline -20.0%, PE contracts to 12.6
These are projections based on PE multiples and EPS growth scenarios, not predictions. Actual results may vary significantly.
💡
Upside Surprise Potential
If earnings stabilize (0% growth), PE could expand from 7.0 to 7.6
Stabilization Target:
$8.71
(+9.3%)
PE Expansion Potential:
+9.3%
Share & Embed Analysis
Last updated: August 02, 2026 5:29 PM ET
Data refreshes hourly during market hours. Next update: 6:29 PM
Data refreshes hourly during market hours. Next update: 6:29 PM
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Technical Signals Check
Is TRTX showing a specific setup today?
Insider Activity (6 Months)
0
Buys
0
Sells
0
Net
NEUTRAL
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