UBS Stock Analysis: Buy, Sell, or Hold?
UBS - UBS Group AG
$52.74
-0.65 (-1.22%)
▼
5d:
+1.93%
30d:
+6.07%
90d:
+20.14%
BUY
MODERATE Confidence
Analysis Updated: Jul 31, 2026 12:00 AM ET
Earnings: Jul 31, 2026
0d
Smart Money Distribution
None View Scanner →
Strength: 4.1/10
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Interactive Price Chart (1 Month)
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Bottom Line:
💡 BUY OPPORTUNITY: UBS shows positive signals but monitor for confirmation. Market pricing in 2.1% annual growth which appears achievable. Moderate conviction.
💡 BUY OPPORTUNITY: UBS shows positive signals but monitor for confirmation. Market pricing in 2.1% annual growth which appears achievable. Moderate conviction.
Long-Term Wealth Forecast (2031)
Based on Analyst Consensus Growth & Historical Valuation
0% (Stagnation)
50% (Hyper Growth)
EST. PRICE IN 2031
$95.59
Based on 14.0% avg growth
INTRINSIC VALUE TODAY
$59.35
11.1% Margin of Safety
How this is calculated: We use a Growth Decay Model: starting with analyst consensus growth (adjusted above) and gradually slowing it down to a long-term terminal rate (4%) by Year 5. This provides a more realistic valuation than assuming constant hyper-growth. We then apply a 12.1x Exit PE.
In-depth Analysis How we analyze
Valuation Analysis: UBS is currently trading at $52.74, which is considered slightly high relative to its 30-day fair value range of $50.22 to $53.06. The stock's valuation (Forward PE: 12.9) is in line with its historical norms (12.1). At these levels, the market is pricing in 2.1% annual earnings growth. This growth rate appears achievable given the company's track record, suggesting the valuation is rational.
Technical Outlook: Technically, UBS is in a strong uptrend. The price is currently testing key support at $51.35. A bounce from this level would confirm strength, while a break below could signal further downside.
Market Sentiment: The stock shows a mixed technical setup (55/100), with neutral trendline and momentum signals. Combining these factors, the current setup offers a favorable risk/reward ratio for buyers.
Technical Outlook: Technically, UBS is in a strong uptrend. The price is currently testing key support at $51.35. A bounce from this level would confirm strength, while a break below could signal further downside.
Market Sentiment: The stock shows a mixed technical setup (55/100), with neutral trendline and momentum signals. Combining these factors, the current setup offers a favorable risk/reward ratio for buyers.
Quick Decision Summary
Current Position
SLIGHTLY HIGH
Historical Trading Range
$50.22 -
$53.06
Company Quality Score
56/100
(HOLD)
Volume Confirmation
HIGH
Confidence Score
61.4%
All Signals
- NEUTRAL: Mixed technical signals (55/100)
- BULLISH: High volume confirmation
- NEUTRAL: Near Wall St target ($52.20)
- NEUTRAL: Market pricing in 2.1% annual earnings growth - fairly valued
Trading Range Analysis
30-Day Trading Range
$50.22 -
$53.06
Current vs Trading Range
SLIGHTLY HIGH
Support & Resistance Levels
Support Level
$51.35
Resistance Level
$53.41
Current Trend
Strong Uptrend
Technical data as of
Jul 31, 2026
Fundamental Context
Forward P/E (Next Year Est.)
12.89
Wall Street Target
$52.20
(-2.2%)
Revenue Growth (YoY)
13.8%
Earnings Growth (YoY)
84.4%
Profit Margin
17.8%
Valuation Premium vs History
+2.1% premium
PE vs Historical
12.9 vs 12.1
FAIR
Market-Implied Price Targets
If current PE multiple persists
Implied Growth (YoY):
+2.1%
(market-implied from PE analysis)
1-Year Target
$54.51
(+2%)
2-Year Target
$55.66
(+4%)
3-Year Target
$56.82
(+6%)
3-Yr Target (if PE normalizes)
(PE: 13→12)
PE COMPRESSION
$53.35
(0%)
Earnings growth offset by PE compression
3-Year Scenarios
Using analyst projected EPS growth
Bull:
(PE: 20.8, Growth: 24.0%)
$164.52
(+208%)
Base:
(SPY PE: 12.9, Growth: 24.0%)
$101.88
(+91%)
Bear:
(PE: 11.0, Growth: 24.0%)
$86.60
(+62%)
📈
Valuation based on Current Earnings
RECOVERY PLAY: Stock looks expensive now (19x PE), but valuation improves significantly next year (13x PE) as earnings recover.
Trailing PE: 18.57 | Current EPS (TTM): $2.79
Bull Case
$84.61
(+60%)
Analyst growth 48.5%, PE expands to 20.4
Base Case
$76.91
(+46%)
Market implied 48.5%, PE stable at 18.6
Bear Case
$35.22
(-33%)
Severe decline -20.0%, PE contracts to 15.8
These are projections based on PE multiples and EPS growth scenarios, not predictions. Actual results may vary significantly.
Share & Embed Analysis
Last updated: August 02, 2026 10:30 PM ET
Data refreshes hourly during market hours. Next update: 11:30 PM
Data refreshes hourly during market hours. Next update: 11:30 PM
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Technical Signals Check
Is UBS showing a specific setup today?
Insider Activity (6 Months)
0
Buys
0
Sells
0
Net
NEUTRAL
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Advanced UBS Option Strategies
Professional options setups generated by AI based on today's UBS price and gamma walls.
