UBS Group (UBS) Stock: Buy, Sell, or Hold?
UBS - UBS Group AG
$47.93
0.70 (1.48%)
▲
5d:
+1.65%
30d:
-2.56%
90d:
-7.02%
BUY
HIGH Confidence
Analysis Updated: Oct 21, 2026 12:00 AM ET
Earnings: Oct 28, 2026
5d
Smart Money Distribution
Options positioning is turning defensive after a sharp run-up - a pattern consistent with institutional profit-taking. View Scanner →
Signal fired Oct 20, 2026 at $47.36 · last confirmed Oct 21, 2026
Strength: 6.0/10
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Interactive Price Chart (1 Month)
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Bottom Line:
✅ BUY SIGNAL: UBS shows strong fundamentals and good volume confirmation. Solid entry point despite fair pricing.
✅ BUY SIGNAL: UBS shows strong fundamentals and good volume confirmation. Solid entry point despite fair pricing.
Long-Term Wealth Forecast (2031)
Based on Analyst Consensus Growth & Historical Valuation
0% (Stagnation)
50% (Hyper Growth)
EST. PRICE IN 2031
$86.83
Based on 11.9% avg growth
INTRINSIC VALUE TODAY
$53.91
11.1% Margin of Safety
How this is calculated: We use a Growth Decay Model: starting with analyst consensus growth (adjusted above) and gradually slowing it down to a long-term terminal rate (4%) by Year 5. This provides a more realistic valuation than assuming constant hyper-growth. We then apply a 12.2x Exit PE.
In-depth Analysis How we analyze
Valuation Analysis: UBS is currently trading at $47.93, which is considered fair relative to its 30-day fair value range of $47.17 to $50.18. The stock's valuation (Forward PE: 11.7) is in line with its historical norms (12.2). Remarkably, the market is currently pricing in an annual earnings decline of 1.4% over the next few years. This pessimistic expectation contrasts with the company's recent 20.6% earnings growth, suggesting potential undervaluation if the company simply maintains stability.
Technical Outlook: Technically, UBS is in a strong uptrend. The price is currently testing key support at $46.54. A bounce from this level would confirm strength, while a break below could signal further downside.
Market Sentiment: UBS scores 73/100 on our bottoming-setup gauge — the chart has corrected and is stabilizing (RSI reset, momentum turning up), historically a favorable entry zone. Wall Street analysts see significant upside, with an average price target of $55.03 (+14.8%). Combining these factors, the current setup offers a favorable risk/reward ratio for buyers.
Technical Outlook: Technically, UBS is in a strong uptrend. The price is currently testing key support at $46.54. A bounce from this level would confirm strength, while a break below could signal further downside.
Market Sentiment: UBS scores 73/100 on our bottoming-setup gauge — the chart has corrected and is stabilizing (RSI reset, momentum turning up), historically a favorable entry zone. Wall Street analysts see significant upside, with an average price target of $55.03 (+14.8%). Combining these factors, the current setup offers a favorable risk/reward ratio for buyers.
Quick Decision Summary
Current Position
FAIR
Historical Trading Range
$47.17 -
$50.18
Company Quality Score
71/100
(BUY)
Volume Confirmation
HIGH
Confidence Score
81.0%
All Signals
- NEUTRAL: Price in fair range
- BULLISH: Strong technical setup (73/100)
- BULLISH: High volume confirmation
- BULLISH: Trading below Wall St target ($55.03)
- BULLISH: Bottoming setup score 73/100 — corrected, stabilizing, and turning up
Trading Range Analysis
30-Day Trading Range
$47.17 -
$50.18
Current vs Trading Range
FAIR
Support & Resistance Levels
Support Level
$46.54
Resistance Level
$49.03
Current Trend
Strong Uptrend
Technical data as of
Oct 21, 2026
Fundamental Context
Forward P/E (Next Year Est.)
11.74
Wall Street Target
$55.03
(+14.8%)
Revenue Growth (YoY)
14.6%
Earnings Growth (YoY)
20.6%
Profit Margin
17.9%
Valuation Discount vs History
-1.4% cheaper
PE vs Historical
11.7 vs 12.2
FAIR
Market-Implied Price Targets
If current PE multiple persists
Implied Growth (YoY):
-1.4%
(market-implied from PE analysis)
1-Year Target
$47.26
(-1%)
2-Year Target
$46.60
(-3%)
3-Year Target
$45.94
(-4%)
3-Yr Target (if PE normalizes)
(PE: 12→12)
$47.74
(0%)
3-Year Scenarios
Using analyst projected EPS growth
Bull:
(PE: 19.9, Growth: 19.8%)
$139.55
(+191%)
Base:
(SPY PE: 11.7, Growth: 19.8%)
$82.51
(+72%)
Bear:
(PE: 10.0, Growth: 19.8%)
$70.13
(+46%)
📈
Valuation based on Current Earnings
RECOVERY PLAY: Stock looks expensive now (16x PE), but valuation improves significantly next year (12x PE) as earnings recover.
Trailing PE: 16.06 | Current EPS (TTM): $2.94
Bull Case
$72.13
(+51%)
Analyst growth 38.8%, PE expands to 17.7
Base Case
$65.57
(+37%)
Market implied 38.8%, PE stable at 16.1
Bear Case
$32.12
(-33%)
Severe decline -20.0%, PE contracts to 13.7
These are projections based on PE multiples and EPS growth scenarios, not predictions. Actual results may vary significantly.
💡
Upside Surprise Potential
If earnings stabilize (0% growth), PE could expand from 11.7 to 12.2
Stabilization Target:
$49.80
(+3.9%)
PE Expansion Potential:
+3.9%
Share & Embed Analysis
Last updated: October 22, 2026 4:42 AM ET
Data refreshes hourly during market hours. Next update: 5:42 AM
Data refreshes hourly during market hours. Next update: 5:42 AM
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Technical Signals Check
Is UBS showing a specific setup today?
Insider Activity (6 Months)
0
Buys
0
Sells
0
Net
NEUTRAL
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Advanced UBS Option Strategies
Professional options setups generated by AI based on today's UBS price and gamma walls.
