UI Stock Analysis: Buy, Sell, or Hold?
UI - Ubiquiti Inc. Common Stock
$540.67
-10.32 (-1.87%)
▼
5d:
+0.6%
30d:
-3.03%
90d:
-41.59%
BUY
HIGH Confidence
Analysis Updated: Jul 13, 2026 12:00 AM ET
Earnings: Aug 28, 2026
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Interactive Price Chart (1 Month)
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Bottom Line:
✅ BUY SIGNAL: UI appears deeply undervalued. Market expects -10.4% annual earnings decline despite 30% recent earnings growth. Contrarian opportunity at discount to historical valuation.
✅ BUY SIGNAL: UI appears deeply undervalued. Market expects -10.4% annual earnings decline despite 30% recent earnings growth. Contrarian opportunity at discount to historical valuation.
Long-Term Wealth Forecast (2031)
Based on Analyst Consensus Growth & Historical Valuation
0% (Stagnation)
50% (Hyper Growth)
EST. PRICE IN 2031
$646.46
Based on 8.5% avg growth
INTRINSIC VALUE TODAY
$401.40
Trading above historical range
How this is calculated: We use a Growth Decay Model: starting with analyst consensus growth (adjusted above) and gradually slowing it down to a long-term terminal rate (4%) by Year 5. This provides a more realistic valuation than assuming constant hyper-growth. We then apply a 25.0x Exit PE.
In-depth Analysis How we analyze
Valuation Analysis: UI is currently trading at $540.67, which is considered slightly low relative to its 30-day fair value range of $534.10 to $573.53. From a valuation perspective, the stock is trading at a discount (Forward PE: 31.4) compared to its historical average (43.6). Remarkably, the market is currently pricing in an annual earnings decline of 10.4% over the next few years. This pessimistic expectation contrasts with the company's recent 29.5% earnings growth, suggesting potential undervaluation if the company simply maintains stability.
Technical Outlook: Technically, UI is in a strong downtrend. The price is approaching resistance at $553.72. A breakout above this level would be a bullish signal, while rejection here could lead to consolidation.
Market Sentiment: The stock shows a mixed technical setup (45/100), with neutral trendline and momentum signals. Wall Street analysts see significant upside, with an average price target of $826.00 (+52.8%). Combining these factors, the current setup offers a favorable risk/reward ratio for buyers.
Technical Outlook: Technically, UI is in a strong downtrend. The price is approaching resistance at $553.72. A breakout above this level would be a bullish signal, while rejection here could lead to consolidation.
Market Sentiment: The stock shows a mixed technical setup (45/100), with neutral trendline and momentum signals. Wall Street analysts see significant upside, with an average price target of $826.00 (+52.8%). Combining these factors, the current setup offers a favorable risk/reward ratio for buyers.
Quick Decision Summary
Current Position
SLIGHTLY LOW
Historical Trading Range
$534.10 -
$573.53
Company Quality Score
57/100
(HOLD)
Volume Confirmation
HIGH
Confidence Score
79.5%
All Signals
- BULLISH: Price oversold vs 30-day range
- NEUTRAL: Mixed technical signals (45/100)
- BULLISH: High volume confirmation
- BULLISH: Trading 52.8% below Wall St target ($826.00)
Trading Range Analysis
30-Day Trading Range
$534.10 -
$573.53
Current vs Trading Range
SLIGHTLY LOW
Support & Resistance Levels
Support Level
$517.54
Resistance Level
$553.72
Current Trend
Strong Downtrend
Technical data as of
Jul 13, 2026
Fundamental Context
Forward P/E (Next Year Est.)
31.37
Wall Street Target
$826.00
(+52.8%)
Revenue Growth (YoY)
18.7%
Earnings Growth (YoY)
29.5%
Profit Margin
30.4%
Valuation Discount vs History
-10.4% cheaper
PE vs Historical
31.4 vs 43.6
CHEAP
Market-Implied Price Targets
If current PE multiple persists
Implied Growth (YoY):
-10.4%
(market-implied from PE analysis)
1-Year Target
$486.60
(-10%)
2-Year Target
$437.94
(-19%)
3-Year Target
$394.15
(-27%)
3-Yr Target (if PE normalizes)
(PE: 31→44)
$547.77
(+1%)
3-Year Scenarios
Using analyst projected EPS growth
Bull:
(PE: 31.4, Growth: 13.0%)
$780.03
(+44%)
Base:
(SPY PE: 21.8, Growth: 13.0%)
$541.53
(+0%)
Bear:
(PE: 18.5, Growth: 13.0%)
$460.30
(-15%)
📈
Valuation based on Current Earnings
RECOVERY PLAY: Stock looks expensive now (35x PE), but valuation improves significantly next year (31x PE) as earnings recover.
Trailing PE: 35.46 | Current EPS (TTM): $15.54
Bull Case
$672.16
(+24%)
Analyst growth 10.9%, PE expands to 39.0
Base Case
$611.05
(+13%)
Market implied 10.9%, PE stable at 35.5
Bear Case
$374.67
(-31%)
Severe decline -20.0%, PE contracts to 30.1
These are projections based on PE multiples and EPS growth scenarios, not predictions. Actual results may vary significantly.
💡
Upside Surprise Potential
If earnings stabilize (0% growth), PE could expand from 31.4 to 43.6
Stabilization Target:
$751.40
(+39.0%)
PE Expansion Potential:
+39.0%
Share & Embed Analysis
Last updated: July 14, 2026 5:22 AM ET
Data refreshes hourly during market hours. Next update: 6:22 AM
Data refreshes hourly during market hours. Next update: 6:22 AM
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| Ticker | Score | Recommendation | Change % |
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Technical Signals Check
Is UI showing a specific setup today?
Insider Activity (6 Months)
0
Buys
0
Sells
0
Net
NEUTRAL
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