UI Stock Analysis: Buy, Sell, or Hold?
UI - Ubiquiti Inc. Common Stock
$548.66
-7.86 (-1.41%)
▼
5d:
+1.68%
30d:
+4.43%
90d:
-46.2%
BUY
MODERATE Confidence
Analysis Updated: Jul 31, 2026 12:00 AM ET
Earnings: Aug 28, 2026
23d
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Interactive Price Chart (1 Month)
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Bottom Line:
💡 BUY OPPORTUNITY: UI shows positive signals but monitor for confirmation. Market pricing in 9.3% decline. Moderate conviction.
💡 BUY OPPORTUNITY: UI shows positive signals but monitor for confirmation. Market pricing in 9.3% decline. Moderate conviction.
Long-Term Wealth Forecast (2031)
Based on Analyst Consensus Growth & Historical Valuation
0% (Stagnation)
50% (Hyper Growth)
EST. PRICE IN 2031
$646.46
Based on 8.5% avg growth
INTRINSIC VALUE TODAY
$401.40
Trading above historical range
How this is calculated: We use a Growth Decay Model: starting with analyst consensus growth (adjusted above) and gradually slowing it down to a long-term terminal rate (4%) by Year 5. This provides a more realistic valuation than assuming constant hyper-growth. We then apply a 25.0x Exit PE.
In-depth Analysis How we analyze
Valuation Analysis: UI is currently trading at $548.66, which is considered extended relative to its 30-day fair value range of $528.78 to $546.36. From a valuation perspective, the stock is trading at a discount (Forward PE: 31.8) compared to its historical average (42.6). Remarkably, the market is currently pricing in an annual earnings decline of 9.3% over the next few years. This pessimistic expectation contrasts with the company's recent 29.5% earnings growth, suggesting potential undervaluation if the company simply maintains stability.
Technical Outlook: Technically, UI is in a strong downtrend. The price is approaching resistance at $563.75. A breakout above this level would be a bullish signal, while rejection here could lead to consolidation.
Market Sentiment: UI has a strong technical setup (60/100), with favorable trendlines, momentum, and price action for short-term traders. Wall Street analysts see significant upside, with an average price target of $826.00 (+50.5%). Combining these factors, the current setup offers a favorable risk/reward ratio for buyers.
Technical Outlook: Technically, UI is in a strong downtrend. The price is approaching resistance at $563.75. A breakout above this level would be a bullish signal, while rejection here could lead to consolidation.
Market Sentiment: UI has a strong technical setup (60/100), with favorable trendlines, momentum, and price action for short-term traders. Wall Street analysts see significant upside, with an average price target of $826.00 (+50.5%). Combining these factors, the current setup offers a favorable risk/reward ratio for buyers.
Quick Decision Summary
Current Position
EXTENDED
Historical Trading Range
$528.78 -
$546.36
Company Quality Score
42/100
(HOLD)
Volume Confirmation
HIGH
Confidence Score
61.9%
All Signals
- BEARISH: Price extended above range
- BULLISH: Strong technical setup (60/100)
- BULLISH: High volume confirmation
- BULLISH: Trading 50.5% below Wall St target ($826.00)
Trading Range Analysis
30-Day Trading Range
$528.78 -
$546.36
Current vs Trading Range
EXTENDED
Support & Resistance Levels
Support Level
$518.89
Resistance Level
$563.75
Current Trend
Strong Downtrend
Technical data as of
Aug 3, 2026
Fundamental Context
Forward P/E (Next Year Est.)
31.84
Wall Street Target
$826.00
(+50.5%)
Revenue Growth (YoY)
18.7%
Earnings Growth (YoY)
29.5%
Profit Margin
30.4%
Valuation Discount vs History
-9.3% cheaper
PE vs Historical
31.8 vs 42.6
CHEAP
Market-Implied Price Targets
If current PE multiple persists
Implied Growth (YoY):
-9.3%
(market-implied from PE analysis)
1-Year Target
$497.63
(-9%)
2-Year Target
$451.35
(-18%)
3-Year Target
$409.38
(-25%)
3-Yr Target (if PE normalizes)
(PE: 32→43)
$547.79
(0%)
3-Year Scenarios
Using analyst projected EPS growth
Bull:
(PE: 31.8, Growth: 13.0%)
$791.56
(+44%)
Base:
(SPY PE: 20.7, Growth: 13.0%)
$515.42
(-6%)
Bear:
(PE: 17.6, Growth: 13.0%)
$438.11
(-20%)
📈
Valuation based on Current Earnings
RECOVERY PLAY: Stock looks expensive now (36x PE), but valuation improves significantly next year (32x PE) as earnings recover.
Trailing PE: 35.84 | Current EPS (TTM): $15.53
Bull Case
$679.34
(+24%)
Analyst growth 11.0%, PE expands to 39.4
Base Case
$617.58
(+13%)
Market implied 11.0%, PE stable at 35.8
Bear Case
$378.43
(-31%)
Severe decline -20.0%, PE contracts to 30.5
These are projections based on PE multiples and EPS growth scenarios, not predictions. Actual results may vary significantly.
💡
Upside Surprise Potential
If earnings stabilize (0% growth), PE could expand from 31.8 to 42.6
Stabilization Target:
$734.17
(+33.8%)
PE Expansion Potential:
+33.8%
Share & Embed Analysis
Last updated: August 03, 2026 9:07 PM ET
Data refreshes hourly during market hours. Next update: 10:07 PM
Data refreshes hourly during market hours. Next update: 10:07 PM
🔥 Top Stocks Breaking Out Now
| Ticker | Score | Recommendation | Change % |
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Technical Signals Check
Is UI showing a specific setup today?
Insider Activity (6 Months)
0
Buys
0
Sells
0
Net
NEUTRAL
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