Ubiquiti (UI) Stock: Buy, Sell, or Hold?
UI - Ubiquiti Inc. Common Stock
$620.52
10.88 (1.78%)
▲
5d:
+10.67%
30d:
+3.7%
90d:
+15.46%
WAIT
LOW Confidence
Analysis Updated: Oct 2, 2026 12:00 AM ET
Earnings: Nov 06, 2026
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Interactive Price Chart (1 Month)
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Bottom Line:
📊 MIXED SIGNALS: UI shows conflicting indicators. Wait for confirmation before entering.
📊 MIXED SIGNALS: UI shows conflicting indicators. Wait for confirmation before entering.
Long-Term Wealth Forecast (2031)
Based on Analyst Consensus Growth & Historical Valuation
0% (Stagnation)
50% (Hyper Growth)
EST. PRICE IN 2031
$646.46
Based on 8.5% avg growth
INTRINSIC VALUE TODAY
$401.40
Trading above historical range
How this is calculated: We use a Growth Decay Model: starting with analyst consensus growth (adjusted above) and gradually slowing it down to a long-term terminal rate (4%) by Year 5. This provides a more realistic valuation than assuming constant hyper-growth. We then apply a 25.0x Exit PE.
In-depth Analysis How we analyze
Valuation Analysis: UI is currently trading at $620.52, which is considered extended relative to its 30-day fair value range of $554.79 to $598.13. From a valuation perspective, the stock is trading at a discount (Forward PE: 36.0) compared to its historical average (40.7). Remarkably, the market is currently pricing in an annual earnings decline of 4.0% over the next few years. This pessimistic expectation contrasts with the company's recent 6.8% earnings growth, suggesting potential undervaluation if the company simply maintains stability.
Technical Outlook: Technically, UI is showing sideways momentum. The price is approaching resistance at $623.52. A breakout above this level would be a bullish signal, while rejection here could lead to consolidation.
Market Sentiment: The stock scores a mixed 43/100 on our bottoming-setup gauge, with only partial signs of a stabilized entry point. Wall Street analysts see significant upside, with an average price target of $734.50 (+18.4%). Current signals suggest waiting for a better entry point before initiating new positions.
Technical Outlook: Technically, UI is showing sideways momentum. The price is approaching resistance at $623.52. A breakout above this level would be a bullish signal, while rejection here could lead to consolidation.
Market Sentiment: The stock scores a mixed 43/100 on our bottoming-setup gauge, with only partial signs of a stabilized entry point. Wall Street analysts see significant upside, with an average price target of $734.50 (+18.4%). Current signals suggest waiting for a better entry point before initiating new positions.
Quick Decision Summary
Current Position
EXTENDED
Historical Trading Range
$554.79 -
$598.13
Company Quality Score
49/100
(HOLD)
Volume Confirmation
HIGH
Confidence Score
48.6%
All Signals
- BEARISH: Price extended above range
- NEUTRAL: Mixed technical signals (43/100)
- BULLISH: High volume confirmation
- BULLISH: Trading below Wall St target ($734.50)
- WARNING: Composite score 49/100 in the bottom quintile — this cohort historically lags the market
Trading Range Analysis
30-Day Trading Range
$554.79 -
$598.13
Current vs Trading Range
EXTENDED
Support & Resistance Levels
Support Level
$552.38
Resistance Level
$623.52
Current Trend
Sideways
Technical data as of
Oct 2, 2026
Fundamental Context
Forward P/E (Next Year Est.)
36.01
Wall Street Target
$734.50
(+18.4%)
Revenue Growth (YoY)
23.5%
Earnings Growth (YoY)
6.8%
Profit Margin
29.3%
Valuation Discount vs History
-4.0% cheaper
PE vs Historical
36.0 vs 40.7
CHEAP
Market-Implied Price Targets
If current PE multiple persists
Implied Growth (YoY):
-4.0%
(market-implied from PE analysis)
1-Year Target
$595.70
(-4%)
2-Year Target
$571.87
(-8%)
3-Year Target
$549.00
(-12%)
3-Yr Target (if PE normalizes)
(PE: 36→41)
$620.57
(0%)
3-Year Scenarios
Using analyst projected EPS growth
Bull:
(PE: 36.0, Growth: 13.0%)
$895.23
(+44%)
Base:
(SPY PE: 20.4, Growth: 13.0%)
$507.22
(-18%)
Bear:
(PE: 17.3, Growth: 13.0%)
$431.13
(-31%)
📈
Valuation based on Current Earnings
RECOVERY PLAY: Stock looks expensive now (38x PE), but valuation improves significantly next year (36x PE) as earnings recover.
Trailing PE: 38.41 | Current EPS (TTM): $15.87
Bull Case
$728.24
(+17%)
Analyst growth 8.6%, PE expands to 42.3
Base Case
$662.04
(+7%)
Market implied 8.6%, PE stable at 38.4
Bear Case
$414.55
(-33%)
Severe decline -20.0%, PE contracts to 32.7
These are projections based on PE multiples and EPS growth scenarios, not predictions. Actual results may vary significantly.
💡
Upside Surprise Potential
If earnings stabilize (0% growth), PE could expand from 36.0 to 40.7
Stabilization Target:
$701.42
(+13.0%)
PE Expansion Potential:
+13.0%
Share & Embed Analysis
Last updated: October 02, 2026 9:46 PM ET
Data refreshes hourly during market hours. Next update: 10:46 PM
Data refreshes hourly during market hours. Next update: 10:46 PM
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Technical Signals Check
Is UI showing a specific setup today?
Insider Activity (6 Months)
0
Buys
0
Sells
0
Net
NEUTRAL
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