UI Stock Analysis: Buy, Sell, or Hold?
UI - Ubiquiti Inc. Common Stock
$551.89
-4.63 (-0.83%)
▼
5d:
+2.28%
30d:
+5.05%
90d:
-45.88%
BUY
MODERATE Confidence
Analysis Updated: Jul 31, 2026 12:00 AM ET
Earnings: Aug 28, 2026
24d
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Interactive Price Chart (1 Month)
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Bottom Line:
💡 BUY OPPORTUNITY: UI shows positive signals but monitor for confirmation. Market pricing in 8.9% decline. Moderate conviction.
💡 BUY OPPORTUNITY: UI shows positive signals but monitor for confirmation. Market pricing in 8.9% decline. Moderate conviction.
Long-Term Wealth Forecast (2031)
Based on Analyst Consensus Growth & Historical Valuation
0% (Stagnation)
50% (Hyper Growth)
EST. PRICE IN 2031
$646.46
Based on 8.5% avg growth
INTRINSIC VALUE TODAY
$401.40
Trading above historical range
How this is calculated: We use a Growth Decay Model: starting with analyst consensus growth (adjusted above) and gradually slowing it down to a long-term terminal rate (4%) by Year 5. This provides a more realistic valuation than assuming constant hyper-growth. We then apply a 25.0x Exit PE.
In-depth Analysis How we analyze
Valuation Analysis: UI is currently trading at $551.89, which is considered extended relative to its 30-day fair value range of $528.72 to $546.65. From a valuation perspective, the stock is trading at a discount (Forward PE: 32.3) compared to its historical average (42.7). Remarkably, the market is currently pricing in an annual earnings decline of 8.9% over the next few years. This pessimistic expectation contrasts with the company's recent 29.5% earnings growth, suggesting potential undervaluation if the company simply maintains stability.
Technical Outlook: Technically, UI is in a strong downtrend. The price is approaching resistance at $563.75. A breakout above this level would be a bullish signal, while rejection here could lead to consolidation.
Market Sentiment: UI has a strong technical setup (60/100), with favorable trendlines, momentum, and price action for short-term traders. Wall Street analysts see significant upside, with an average price target of $826.00 (+48.4%). Combining these factors, the current setup offers a favorable risk/reward ratio for buyers.
Technical Outlook: Technically, UI is in a strong downtrend. The price is approaching resistance at $563.75. A breakout above this level would be a bullish signal, while rejection here could lead to consolidation.
Market Sentiment: UI has a strong technical setup (60/100), with favorable trendlines, momentum, and price action for short-term traders. Wall Street analysts see significant upside, with an average price target of $826.00 (+48.4%). Combining these factors, the current setup offers a favorable risk/reward ratio for buyers.
Quick Decision Summary
Current Position
EXTENDED
Historical Trading Range
$528.72 -
$546.65
Company Quality Score
42/100
(HOLD)
Volume Confirmation
HIGH
Confidence Score
61.9%
All Signals
- BEARISH: Price extended above range
- BULLISH: Strong technical setup (60/100)
- BULLISH: High volume confirmation
- BULLISH: Trading 48.4% below Wall St target ($826.00)
Trading Range Analysis
30-Day Trading Range
$528.72 -
$546.65
Current vs Trading Range
EXTENDED
Support & Resistance Levels
Support Level
$518.89
Resistance Level
$563.75
Current Trend
Strong Downtrend
Technical data as of
Aug 3, 2026
Fundamental Context
Forward P/E (Next Year Est.)
32.29
Wall Street Target
$826.00
(+48.4%)
Revenue Growth (YoY)
18.7%
Earnings Growth (YoY)
29.5%
Profit Margin
30.4%
Valuation Discount vs History
-8.9% cheaper
PE vs Historical
32.3 vs 42.7
CHEAP
Market-Implied Price Targets
If current PE multiple persists
Implied Growth (YoY):
-8.9%
(market-implied from PE analysis)
1-Year Target
$506.99
(-9%)
2-Year Target
$461.87
(-17%)
3-Year Target
$420.76
(-24%)
3-Yr Target (if PE normalizes)
(PE: 32→43)
$556.38
(0%)
3-Year Scenarios
Using analyst projected EPS growth
Bull:
(PE: 32.3, Growth: 13.0%)
$802.89
(+44%)
Base:
(SPY PE: 20.7, Growth: 13.0%)
$515.42
(-7%)
Bear:
(PE: 17.6, Growth: 13.0%)
$438.11
(-21%)
📈
Valuation based on Current Earnings
RECOVERY PLAY: Stock looks expensive now (34x PE), but valuation improves significantly next year (32x PE) as earnings recover.
Trailing PE: 33.66 | Current EPS (TTM): $15.84
Bull Case
$638.17
(+15%)
Analyst growth 8.8%, PE expands to 37.0
Base Case
$580.16
(+4%)
Market implied 8.8%, PE stable at 33.7
Bear Case
$362.60
(-35%)
Severe decline -20.0%, PE contracts to 28.6
These are projections based on PE multiples and EPS growth scenarios, not predictions. Actual results may vary significantly.
💡
Upside Surprise Potential
If earnings stabilize (0% growth), PE could expand from 32.3 to 42.7
Stabilization Target:
$735.89
(+32.2%)
PE Expansion Potential:
+32.2%
Share & Embed Analysis
Last updated: August 03, 2026 3:31 PM ET
Data refreshes hourly during market hours. Next update: 4:31 PM
Data refreshes hourly during market hours. Next update: 4:31 PM
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Technical Signals Check
Is UI showing a specific setup today?
Insider Activity (6 Months)
0
Buys
0
Sells
0
Net
NEUTRAL
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