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Ubiquiti (UI) Stock: Buy, Sell, or Hold?

$679.42
-6.52 (-0.95%) ▼
5d: +21.11% 30d: +9.54% 90d: +16.54%
QUANTITATIVE VERDICT
WAIT
LOW Confidence (21%)
Quality Score
38/100
Position
EXTENDED
30-Day Fair Range
$566.31 – $646.88
Position: EXTENDED
Forward P/E & Valuation
39.4x FAIR
vs 40.1x historical avg
Wall Street Target
$758.50
+11.6% upside
Options IV & Volume
HIGH Vol
HIGH volume confirmation
Support / Resistance
$505.09 / $699.50
Trend: Uptrend
💡Executive Thesis & Bottom Line
Forward Earnings Fair Value & Price Prediction →
📊 MIXED SIGNALS: UI shows conflicting indicators. Wait for confirmation before entering.

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Interactive Price Chart (1 Month)

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Long-Term Wealth Forecast (2031)

Based on Analyst Consensus Growth & Historical Valuation

0% (Stagnation) 50% (Hyper Growth)
EST. PRICE IN 2031
$646.46
Based on 8.5% avg growth
INTRINSIC VALUE TODAY
$401.40
Trading above historical range

How this is calculated: We use a Growth Decay Model: starting with analyst consensus growth (adjusted above) and gradually slowing it down to a long-term terminal rate (4%) by Year 5. This provides a more realistic valuation than assuming constant hyper-growth. We then apply a 25.0x Exit PE.

In-depth Analysis How we analyze

Valuation Analysis: UI is currently trading at $679.42, which is considered extended relative to its 30-day fair value range of $566.31 to $646.88. The stock's valuation (Forward PE: 39.4) is in line with its historical norms (40.1). Remarkably, the market is currently pricing in an annual earnings decline of 0.5% over the next few years. This pessimistic expectation contrasts with the company's recent 54.2% earnings growth, suggesting potential undervaluation if the company simply maintains stability.

Technical Outlook: Technically, UI is in a uptrend. The price is approaching resistance at $699.50. A breakout above this level would be a bullish signal, while rejection here could lead to consolidation.

Market Sentiment: UI scores 15/100 on our bottoming-setup gauge. Note this measures entry quality, not trend direction — a low score can mean the chart is extended after a strong run (don't chase) or still falling without stabilization; better entries typically come after a pullback toward the 20-day average. Wall Street analysts see significant upside, with an average price target of $758.50 (+11.6%). Current signals suggest waiting for a better entry point before initiating new positions.

Quick Decision Summary

Current Position EXTENDED
Historical Trading Range $566.31 - $646.88
Company Quality Score 38/100 (SELL)
Volume Confirmation HIGH
Confidence Score 21.4%

Trading Range & Key Levels

30-Day Trading Range $566.31 - $646.88
Current vs Trading Range EXTENDED
Support Level $505.09
Resistance Level $699.50
Current Trend Uptrend
Technical data as of Nov 11, 2026

Quantitative Signal Breakdown

  • BEARISH: Price extended above range (+5.0% above its trading range)
  • BEARISH: Weak technical setup (15/100)
  • BULLISH: High volume confirmation
  • BULLISH: Trading below Wall St target ($758.50)
  • WARNING: Composite score 38/100 in the bottom quintile — this cohort historically lags the market

Fundamental Context

Forward P/E (Next Year Est.) 39.42
Wall Street Target $758.50 (+11.6%)
Revenue Growth (YoY) 39.9%
Earnings Growth (YoY) 54.2%
Profit Margin 30.1%
Valuation Discount vs History -0.5% cheaper
PE vs Historical 39.4 vs 40.1 FAIR
Market-Implied Price Targets If current PE multiple persists
Implied Growth (YoY): -0.5% (market-implied from PE analysis)
1-Year Target $676.02 (-1%)
2-Year Target $672.64 (-1%)
3-Year Target $669.28 (-2%)
3-Yr Target (if PE normalizes) (PE: 39→40) $680.77 (+0%)
3-Year Scenarios Using analyst projected EPS growth
Bull: (PE: 39.4, Growth: 13.0%) $980.20 (+44%)
Base: (SPY PE: 19.9, Growth: 13.0%) $493.79 (-27%)
Bear: (PE: 16.9, Growth: 13.0%) $419.72 (-38%)
📈 Valuation based on Current Earnings
Trailing PE: 38.73 | Current EPS (TTM): $17.71
Bull Case $734.25 (+8%)
Analyst growth -2.7%, PE expands to 42.6
Base Case $667.50 (-2%)
Market implied -2.7%, PE stable at 38.7
Bear Case $466.44 (-31%)
Severe decline -20.0%, PE contracts to 32.9
These are projections based on PE multiples and EPS growth scenarios, not predictions. Actual results may vary significantly.
💡 Upside Surprise Potential
If earnings stabilize (0% growth), PE could expand from 39.4 to 40.1
Stabilization Target: $691.08 (+1.7%)
PE Expansion Potential: +1.7%
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Reddit & Retail Trader Sentiment (UI)

Bullish 2 Retail Mentions
Reddit / WSB Comments
1
Bullish
StockTwits Volume
1 msgs
24h retail stream
Last Tracked
Nov 10, 2026
Daily AI digest
AI Retail Discussion Summary: A bullish trader on StockTwits expresses regret for not buying back into $UI after selling at a lower price and wonders if the 'Pera Squeeze' is returning.
Key Retail Themes: Buy-the-dip Positive sentiment towards $UI
Aggregated from r/wallstreetbets, r/stocks & StockTwits streams. View All Trending Reddit & WSB Stocks →
Last updated: November 12, 2026 3:50 AM ET
Data refreshes hourly during market hours. Next update: 4:50 AM
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Ticker Score Recommendation Change %
Technical Signals Check
Insider Activity (6 Months)
0
Buys
0
Sells
0
Net
NEUTRAL

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