VALE Stock Analysis: Buy, Sell, or Hold?
VALE - VALE S.A.
$15.26
-0.46 (-2.90%)
▼
5d:
-4.66%
30d:
-7.38%
90d:
+3.14%
BUY
MODERATE Confidence
Analysis Updated: Jun 22, 2026 12:00 AM ET
Earnings: Jul 30, 2026
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Interactive Price Chart (1 Month)
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Bottom Line:
💡 BUY OPPORTUNITY: VALE shows positive signals but monitor for confirmation. Market pricing in 0.8% annual growth which appears achievable. Moderate conviction.
💡 BUY OPPORTUNITY: VALE shows positive signals but monitor for confirmation. Market pricing in 0.8% annual growth which appears achievable. Moderate conviction.
Long-Term Wealth Forecast (2031)
Based on Analyst Consensus Growth & Historical Valuation
0% (Stagnation)
50% (Hyper Growth)
EST. PRICE IN 2031
$14.60
Based on -0.9% avg growth
INTRINSIC VALUE TODAY
$9.06
Trading above historical range
How this is calculated: We use a Growth Decay Model: starting with analyst consensus growth (adjusted above) and gradually slowing it down to a long-term terminal rate (4%) by Year 5. This provides a more realistic valuation than assuming constant hyper-growth. We then apply a 7.6x Exit PE.
In-depth Analysis How we analyze
Valuation Analysis: VALE is currently trading at $15.26, which is considered fair relative to its 30-day fair value range of $15.44 to $16.51. The stock's valuation (Forward PE: 7.8) is in line with its historical norms (7.6). At these levels, the market is pricing in 0.8% annual earnings growth. This growth rate appears achievable given the company's track record, suggesting the valuation is rational.
Technical Outlook: Technically, VALE is showing sideways momentum. Immediate support is located at $14.76, while resistance sits at $16.94.
Market Sentiment: The stock shows a mixed technical setup (45/100), with neutral trendline and momentum signals. Wall Street analysts see significant upside, with an average price target of $17.34 (+10.4%). Combining these factors, the current setup offers a favorable risk/reward ratio for buyers.
Technical Outlook: Technically, VALE is showing sideways momentum. Immediate support is located at $14.76, while resistance sits at $16.94.
Market Sentiment: The stock shows a mixed technical setup (45/100), with neutral trendline and momentum signals. Wall Street analysts see significant upside, with an average price target of $17.34 (+10.4%). Combining these factors, the current setup offers a favorable risk/reward ratio for buyers.
Quick Decision Summary
Current Position
FAIR
Historical Trading Range
$15.44 -
$16.51
Company Quality Score
47/100
(HOLD)
Volume Confirmation
HIGH
Confidence Score
71.0%
All Signals
- NEUTRAL: Price in fair range
- NEUTRAL: Mixed technical signals (45/100)
- BULLISH: High volume confirmation
- BULLISH: Trading below Wall St target ($17.34)
- NEUTRAL: Market pricing in 0.8% annual earnings growth - fairly valued
Trading Range Analysis
30-Day Trading Range
$15.44 -
$16.51
Current vs Trading Range
FAIR
Support & Resistance Levels
Support Level
$14.76
Resistance Level
$16.94
Current Trend
Sideways
Technical data as of
Jun 9, 2026
Fundamental Context
Forward P/E (Next Year Est.)
7.77
Wall Street Target
$17.34
(+10.4%)
Revenue Growth (YoY)
2.7%
Earnings Growth (YoY)
22.0%
Profit Margin
7.3%
Valuation Premium vs History
+0.8% premium
PE vs Historical
7.8 vs 7.6
FAIR
Market-Implied Price Targets
If current PE multiple persists
Implied Growth (YoY):
+0.8%
(market-implied from PE analysis)
1-Year Target
$15.84
(+1%)
2-Year Target
$15.96
(+2%)
3-Year Target
$16.09
(+2%)
3-Yr Target (if PE normalizes)
(PE: 8→8)
PE COMPRESSION
$15.73
(+0%)
Earnings growth offset by PE compression
3-Year Scenarios
Using analyst projected EPS growth
Bull:
(PE: 21.8, Growth: -5.9%)
$36.73
(+134%)
Base:
(SPY PE: 7.8, Growth: -5.9%)
$13.11
(-17%)
Bear:
(PE: 6.6, Growth: -5.9%)
$11.14
(-29%)
📈
Valuation based on Current Earnings
RECOVERY PLAY: Stock looks expensive now (23x PE), but valuation improves significantly next year (8x PE) as earnings recover.
Trailing PE: 23.36 | Current EPS (TTM): $0.66
Bull Case
$33.92
(+116%)
Analyst growth 100.0%, PE expands to 25.7
Base Case
$30.84
(+96%)
Market implied 100.0%, PE stable at 23.4
Bear Case
$10.49
(-33%)
Severe decline -20.0%, PE contracts to 19.9
These are projections based on PE multiples and EPS growth scenarios, not predictions. Actual results may vary significantly.
Share & Embed Analysis
Last updated: June 23, 2026 10:49 AM ET
Data refreshes hourly during market hours. Next update: 11:49 AM
Data refreshes hourly during market hours. Next update: 11:49 AM
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Technical Signals Check
Is VALE showing a specific setup today?
Insider Activity (6 Months)
2
Buys
0
Sells
+
Net
INSIDERS BUYING
Recent Transactions
Parenti Grazielle Tallia
BUY
10464 shares
2026-04-01
Sobrinho Sami Arap
BUY
12990 shares
2026-04-01
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