CMP Stock Analysis: Buy, Sell, or Hold?
CMP - Compass Minerals International, Inc.
$20.64
-0.36 (-1.74%)
▼
5d:
-7.3%
30d:
-9.3%
90d:
-30.69%
WAIT
LOW Confidence
Analysis Updated: Oct 22, 2026 12:00 AM ET
Earnings: Dec 14, 2026
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Interactive Price Chart (1 Month)
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Bottom Line:
📊 MIXED SIGNALS: CMP shows conflicting indicators. Wait for confirmation before entering.
📊 MIXED SIGNALS: CMP shows conflicting indicators. Wait for confirmation before entering.
Long-Term Wealth Forecast (2031)
Based on Analyst Consensus Growth & Historical Valuation
0% (Stagnation)
50% (Hyper Growth)
EST. PRICE IN 2031
$56.75
Based on 14.5% avg growth
INTRINSIC VALUE TODAY
$35.24
41.4% Margin of Safety
How this is calculated: We use a Growth Decay Model: starting with analyst consensus growth (adjusted above) and gradually slowing it down to a long-term terminal rate (4%) by Year 5. This provides a more realistic valuation than assuming constant hyper-growth. We then apply a 23.2x Exit PE.
In-depth Analysis How we analyze
Valuation Analysis: CMP is currently trading at $20.64, which is considered oversold relative to its 30-day fair value range of $21.82 to $23.53. From a valuation perspective, the stock is trading at a discount (Forward PE: 16.7) compared to its historical average (23.2). Remarkably, the market is currently pricing in an annual earnings decline of 10.3% over the next few years. This aligns with recent fundamental challenges.
Technical Outlook: Technically, CMP is in a strong downtrend. The price is currently testing key support at $20.95. A bounce from this level would confirm strength, while a break below could signal further downside.
Market Sentiment: CMP scores 15/100 on our bottoming-setup gauge. Note this measures entry quality, not trend direction — a low score can mean the chart is extended after a strong run (don't chase) or still falling without stabilization; better entries typically come after a pullback toward the 20-day average. Wall Street analysts see significant upside, with an average price target of $29.50 (+40.5%). Current signals suggest waiting for a better entry point before initiating new positions.
Technical Outlook: Technically, CMP is in a strong downtrend. The price is currently testing key support at $20.95. A bounce from this level would confirm strength, while a break below could signal further downside.
Market Sentiment: CMP scores 15/100 on our bottoming-setup gauge. Note this measures entry quality, not trend direction — a low score can mean the chart is extended after a strong run (don't chase) or still falling without stabilization; better entries typically come after a pullback toward the 20-day average. Wall Street analysts see significant upside, with an average price target of $29.50 (+40.5%). Current signals suggest waiting for a better entry point before initiating new positions.
Quick Decision Summary
Current Position
OVERSOLD
Historical Trading Range
$21.82 -
$23.53
Company Quality Score
35/100
(SELL)
Volume Confirmation
HIGH
Confidence Score
57.1%
All Signals
- BULLISH: Price oversold vs 30-day range
- BEARISH: Weak technical setup (15/100)
- BULLISH: High volume confirmation
- BULLISH: Trading 40.5% below Wall St target ($29.50)
- WARNING: Composite score 35/100 in the bottom quintile — this cohort historically lags the market
Trading Range Analysis
30-Day Trading Range
$21.82 -
$23.53
Current vs Trading Range
OVERSOLD
Support & Resistance Levels
Support Level
$20.95
Resistance Level
$23.40
Current Trend
Strong Downtrend
Technical data as of
Oct 22, 2026
Fundamental Context
Forward P/E (Next Year Est.)
16.72
Wall Street Target
$29.50
(+40.5%)
Revenue Growth (YoY)
0.3%
Earnings Growth (YoY)
-91.7%
Profit Margin
1.4%
Valuation Discount vs History
-10.3% cheaper
PE vs Historical
16.7 vs 23.2
CHEAP
Market-Implied Price Targets
If current PE multiple persists
Implied Growth (YoY):
-10.3%
(market-implied from PE analysis)
1-Year Target
$18.90
(-10%)
2-Year Target
$17.01
(-19%)
3-Year Target
$15.31
(-27%)
3-Yr Target (if PE normalizes)
(PE: 17→23)
$21.25
(+1%)
3-Year Scenarios
Using analyst projected EPS growth
Bull:
(PE: 19.9, Growth: 40.5%)
$69.12
(+229%)
Base:
(SPY PE: 16.7, Growth: 40.5%)
$58.18
(+177%)
Bear:
(PE: 14.2, Growth: 40.5%)
$49.46
(+136%)
📈
Valuation based on Current Earnings
Forward PE: 14.77 | Forward EPS (Implied): $1.42
Bull Case
$25.36
(+21%)
Analyst growth 15.0%, PE expands to 15.5
Base Case
$21.00
(0%)
Market implied 0.0%, PE stable at 14.8
Bear Case
$16.07
(-24%)
Severe decline -15.0%, PE contracts to 13.3
These are projections based on PE multiples and EPS growth scenarios, not predictions. Actual results may vary significantly.
💡
Upside Surprise Potential
If earnings stabilize (0% growth), PE could expand from 16.7 to 23.2
Stabilization Target:
$29.14
(+38.8%)
PE Expansion Potential:
+38.8%
Share & Embed Analysis
Last updated: October 23, 2026 9:53 AM ET
Data refreshes hourly during market hours. Next update: 10:53 AM
Data refreshes hourly during market hours. Next update: 10:53 AM
🔥 Top Stocks Breaking Out Now
| Ticker | Score | Recommendation | Change % |
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Technical Signals Check
Is CMP showing a specific setup today?
Insider Activity (6 Months)
0
Buys
0
Sells
0
Net
NEUTRAL
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