YMM Stock Analysis: Buy, Sell, or Hold?
YMM - Full Truck Alliance Co. Ltd. American Depositary Shares (each representing 20 Class A Ordinary Shares)
$7.64
-0.25 (-3.17%)
▼
5d:
-9.16%
30d:
-13.38%
90d:
-7.95%
HOLD
MODERATE Confidence
Analysis Updated: Jun 23, 2026 12:00 AM ET
Earnings: Aug 20, 2026
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Interactive Price Chart (1 Month)
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Bottom Line:
📊 HOLD: YMM shows mixed signals. Fine to hold existing positions. Not urgent to buy or sell.
📊 HOLD: YMM shows mixed signals. Fine to hold existing positions. Not urgent to buy or sell.
Long-Term Wealth Forecast (2031)
Based on Analyst Consensus Growth & Historical Valuation
0% (Stagnation)
50% (Hyper Growth)
EST. PRICE IN 2031
$16.40
Based on 10.9% avg growth
INTRINSIC VALUE TODAY
$10.18
25.0% Margin of Safety
How this is calculated: We use a Growth Decay Model: starting with analyst consensus growth (adjusted above) and gradually slowing it down to a long-term terminal rate (4%) by Year 5. This provides a more realistic valuation than assuming constant hyper-growth. We then apply a 1.7x Exit PE.
In-depth Analysis How we analyze
Valuation Analysis: YMM is currently trading at $7.64, which is considered oversold relative to its 30-day fair value range of $8.09 to $8.91. From a valuation perspective, the stock is trading at a discount (Forward PE: 1.3) compared to its historical average (1.7). Remarkably, the market is currently pricing in an annual earnings decline of 7.9% over the next few years. This aligns with recent fundamental challenges.
Technical Outlook: Technically, YMM is in a strong downtrend. The price is currently testing key support at $8.18. A bounce from this level would confirm strength, while a break below could signal further downside. Short-term momentum is weak, with the stock down 3.2% recently.
Market Sentiment: YMM has a weak technical setup (25/100), with bearish trendlines and momentum suggesting caution for short-term entries. Wall Street analysts see significant upside, with an average price target of $12.49 (+63.4%). The stock is fairly positioned - fine to hold existing positions or accumulate slowly on dips, but not an urgent buy.
Technical Outlook: Technically, YMM is in a strong downtrend. The price is currently testing key support at $8.18. A bounce from this level would confirm strength, while a break below could signal further downside. Short-term momentum is weak, with the stock down 3.2% recently.
Market Sentiment: YMM has a weak technical setup (25/100), with bearish trendlines and momentum suggesting caution for short-term entries. Wall Street analysts see significant upside, with an average price target of $12.49 (+63.4%). The stock is fairly positioned - fine to hold existing positions or accumulate slowly on dips, but not an urgent buy.
Quick Decision Summary
Current Position
OVERSOLD
Historical Trading Range
$8.09 -
$8.91
Company Quality Score
52/100
(HOLD)
Volume Confirmation
HIGH
Confidence Score
52.4%
All Signals
- BULLISH: Price oversold vs 30-day range
- BEARISH: Weak technical setup (25/100)
- BULLISH: High volume confirmation
- BEARISH: Downward momentum (-3.2%)
- BULLISH: Trading 63.4% below Wall St target ($12.49)
- CAUTION: 5-day price weakness (-9.2%) - monitor closely
Trading Range Analysis
30-Day Trading Range
$8.09 -
$8.91
Current vs Trading Range
OVERSOLD
Support & Resistance Levels
Support Level
$8.18
Resistance Level
$9.59
Current Trend
Strong Downtrend
Technical data as of
Jun 9, 2026
Fundamental Context
Forward P/E (Next Year Est.)
1.32
Wall Street Target
$12.49
(+63.4%)
Revenue Growth (YoY)
5.5%
Earnings Growth (YoY)
-20.6%
Profit Margin
32.7%
Valuation Discount vs History
-7.9% cheaper
PE vs Historical
1.3 vs 1.7
CHEAP
Market-Implied Price Targets
If current PE multiple persists
Implied Growth (YoY):
-7.9%
(market-implied from PE analysis)
1-Year Target
$7.04
(-8%)
2-Year Target
$6.48
(-15%)
3-Year Target
$5.97
(-22%)
3-Yr Target (if PE normalizes)
(PE: 1→2)
$7.69
(+1%)
3-Year Scenarios
Using analyst projected EPS growth
Bull:
(PE: 21.8, Growth: 17.7%)
$205.48
(+2590%)
Base:
(SPY PE: 1.3, Growth: 17.7%)
$12.45
(+63%)
Bear:
(PE: 1.1, Growth: 17.7%)
$10.58
(+39%)
📈
Valuation based on Current Earnings
RECOVERY PLAY: Stock looks expensive now (13x PE), but valuation improves significantly next year (1x PE) as earnings recover.
Trailing PE: 13.21 | Current EPS (TTM): $0.59
Bull Case
$17.15
(+125%)
Analyst growth 100.0%, PE expands to 14.5
Base Case
$15.59
(+104%)
Market implied 100.0%, PE stable at 13.2
Bear Case
$5.30
(-31%)
Severe decline -20.0%, PE contracts to 11.2
These are projections based on PE multiples and EPS growth scenarios, not predictions. Actual results may vary significantly.
💡
Upside Surprise Potential
If earnings stabilize (0% growth), PE could expand from 1.3 to 1.7
Stabilization Target:
$9.85
(+28.9%)
PE Expansion Potential:
+28.9%
Share & Embed Analysis
Last updated: June 23, 2026 6:02 PM ET
Data refreshes hourly during market hours. Next update: 7:02 PM
Data refreshes hourly during market hours. Next update: 7:02 PM
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Technical Signals Check
Is YMM showing a specific setup today?
Insider Activity (6 Months)
0
Buys
0
Sells
0
Net
NEUTRAL
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