ADC Stock Analysis: Buy, Sell, or Hold?
ADC - Agree Realty Corporation
$74.33
0.94 (1.28%)
▲
5d:
-0.19%
30d:
-1.78%
90d:
-1.84%
BUY
MODERATE Confidence
Analysis Updated: Jun 22, 2026 12:00 AM ET
Earnings: Jul 30, 2026
Smart Money Distribution
None View Scanner →
Strength: 4.5/10
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Interactive Price Chart (1 Month)
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Bottom Line:
💡 BUY OPPORTUNITY: ADC shows positive signals but monitor for confirmation. Market pricing in 0.2% decline. Moderate conviction.
💡 BUY OPPORTUNITY: ADC shows positive signals but monitor for confirmation. Market pricing in 0.2% decline. Moderate conviction.
Long-Term Wealth Forecast (2031)
Based on Analyst Consensus Growth & Historical Valuation
0% (Stagnation)
50% (Hyper Growth)
EST. PRICE IN 2031
$57.58
Based on 3.4% avg growth
INTRINSIC VALUE TODAY
$35.75
Trading above historical range
How this is calculated: We use a Growth Decay Model: starting with analyst consensus growth (adjusted above) and gradually slowing it down to a long-term terminal rate (4%) by Year 5. This provides a more realistic valuation than assuming constant hyper-growth. We then apply a 25.0x Exit PE.
In-depth Analysis How we analyze
Valuation Analysis: ADC is currently trading at $74.33, which is considered fair relative to its 30-day fair value range of $73.46 to $75.97. The stock's valuation (Forward PE: 37.6) is in line with its historical norms (37.8). Remarkably, the market is currently pricing in an annual earnings decline of 0.2% over the next few years. This pessimistic expectation contrasts with the company's recent 19.0% earnings growth, suggesting potential undervaluation if the company simply maintains stability.
Technical Outlook: Technically, ADC is in a downtrend. The price is currently testing key support at $72.80. A bounce from this level would confirm strength, while a break below could signal further downside.
Market Sentiment: The stock shows a mixed technical setup (45/100), with neutral trendline and momentum signals. Wall Street analysts see significant upside, with an average price target of $84.56 (+15.2%). Combining these factors, the current setup offers a favorable risk/reward ratio for buyers.
Technical Outlook: Technically, ADC is in a downtrend. The price is currently testing key support at $72.80. A bounce from this level would confirm strength, while a break below could signal further downside.
Market Sentiment: The stock shows a mixed technical setup (45/100), with neutral trendline and momentum signals. Wall Street analysts see significant upside, with an average price target of $84.56 (+15.2%). Combining these factors, the current setup offers a favorable risk/reward ratio for buyers.
Quick Decision Summary
Current Position
FAIR
Historical Trading Range
$73.46 -
$75.97
Company Quality Score
61/100
(BUY)
Volume Confirmation
HIGH
Confidence Score
70.0%
All Signals
- NEUTRAL: Price in fair range
- NEUTRAL: Mixed technical signals (45/100)
- BULLISH: High volume confirmation
- BULLISH: Trading below Wall St target ($84.56)
Trading Range Analysis
30-Day Trading Range
$73.46 -
$75.97
Current vs Trading Range
FAIR
Support & Resistance Levels
Support Level
$72.80
Resistance Level
$76.33
Current Trend
Downtrend
Technical data as of
Jun 22, 2026
Fundamental Context
Forward P/E (Next Year Est.)
37.57
Wall Street Target
$84.56
(+15.2%)
Revenue Growth (YoY)
18.7%
Earnings Growth (YoY)
19.0%
Profit Margin
29.2%
Valuation Discount vs History
-0.2% cheaper
PE vs Historical
37.6 vs 37.8
FAIR
Market-Implied Price Targets
If current PE multiple persists
Implied Growth (YoY):
-0.2%
(market-implied from PE analysis)
1-Year Target
$73.24
(0%)
2-Year Target
$73.10
(0%)
3-Year Target
$72.95
(-1%)
3-Yr Target (if PE normalizes)
(PE: 38→38)
$73.40
(0%)
3-Year Scenarios
Using analyst projected EPS growth
Bull:
(PE: 37.6, Growth: 2.7%)
$79.40
(+8%)
Base:
(SPY PE: 21.8, Growth: 2.7%)
$46.03
(-37%)
Bear:
(PE: 18.5, Growth: 2.7%)
$39.13
(-47%)
📈
Valuation based on Current Earnings
RECOVERY PLAY: Stock looks expensive now (40x PE), but valuation improves significantly next year (38x PE) as earnings recover.
Trailing PE: 39.59 | Current EPS (TTM): $1.85
Bull Case
$85.08
(+16%)
Analyst growth 5.6%, PE expands to 43.6
Base Case
$77.35
(+5%)
Market implied 5.6%, PE stable at 39.6
Bear Case
$49.81
(-32%)
Severe decline -20.0%, PE contracts to 33.7
These are projections based on PE multiples and EPS growth scenarios, not predictions. Actual results may vary significantly.
💡
Upside Surprise Potential
If earnings stabilize (0% growth), PE could expand from 37.6 to 37.8
Stabilization Target:
$73.84
(+0.6%)
PE Expansion Potential:
+0.6%
Share & Embed Analysis
Last updated: June 23, 2026 11:02 AM ET
Data refreshes hourly during market hours. Next update: 12:02 PM
Data refreshes hourly during market hours. Next update: 12:02 PM
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Technical Signals Check
Is ADC showing a specific setup today?
Insider Activity (6 Months)
3
Buys
1
Sells
+
Net
INSIDERS BUYING
Recent Transactions
John Rakolta Jr
BUY
146 shares
2026-04-01
Gilbert Ray Cisneros, Jr.
SELL
2026-01-15
Peter Coughenour
BUY
500 shares
2026-01-09
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