AGCO Stock Analysis: Buy, Sell, or Hold?
AGCO - AGCO Corporation
$114.14
0.06 (0.05%)
▲
5d:
+0.34%
30d:
+2.8%
90d:
-5.93%
HOLD
MODERATE Confidence
Analysis Updated: Jul 14, 2026 12:00 AM ET
Earnings: Jul 30, 2026
14d
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Interactive Price Chart (1 Month)
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Bottom Line:
📊 HOLD: AGCO shows mixed signals. Fine to hold existing positions. Not urgent to buy or sell.
📊 HOLD: AGCO shows mixed signals. Fine to hold existing positions. Not urgent to buy or sell.
Long-Term Wealth Forecast (2031)
Based on Analyst Consensus Growth & Historical Valuation
0% (Stagnation)
50% (Hyper Growth)
EST. PRICE IN 2031
$245.95
Based on 14.5% avg growth
INTRINSIC VALUE TODAY
$152.71
25.3% Margin of Safety
How this is calculated: We use a Growth Decay Model: starting with analyst consensus growth (adjusted above) and gradually slowing it down to a long-term terminal rate (4%) by Year 5. This provides a more realistic valuation than assuming constant hyper-growth. We then apply a 15.7x Exit PE.
In-depth Analysis How we analyze
Valuation Analysis: AGCO is currently trading at $114.14, which is considered fair relative to its 30-day fair value range of $111.80 to $117.15. The stock's valuation (Forward PE: 14.2) is in line with its historical norms (15.7). Remarkably, the market is currently pricing in an annual earnings decline of 3.3% over the next few years. This pessimistic expectation contrasts with the company's recent 441.9% earnings growth, suggesting potential undervaluation if the company simply maintains stability.
Technical Outlook: Technically, AGCO is in a downtrend. The price is currently testing key support at $111.87. A bounce from this level would confirm strength, while a break below could signal further downside.
Market Sentiment: AGCO has a weak technical setup (25/100), with bearish trendlines and momentum suggesting caution for short-term entries. In the options market, Implied Volatility is low (22th percentile), suggesting options premiums are relatively cheap. This makes it an attractive time for long options strategies if you have a directional bias. Wall Street analysts see significant upside, with an average price target of $129.73 (+13.7%). The stock is fairly positioned - fine to hold existing positions or accumulate slowly on dips, but not an urgent buy.
Technical Outlook: Technically, AGCO is in a downtrend. The price is currently testing key support at $111.87. A bounce from this level would confirm strength, while a break below could signal further downside.
Market Sentiment: AGCO has a weak technical setup (25/100), with bearish trendlines and momentum suggesting caution for short-term entries. In the options market, Implied Volatility is low (22th percentile), suggesting options premiums are relatively cheap. This makes it an attractive time for long options strategies if you have a directional bias. Wall Street analysts see significant upside, with an average price target of $129.73 (+13.7%). The stock is fairly positioned - fine to hold existing positions or accumulate slowly on dips, but not an urgent buy.
Quick Decision Summary
Current Position
FAIR
Historical Trading Range
$111.80 -
$117.15
Company Quality Score
57/100
(HOLD)
Options IV Signal
22th percentile
(LOW)
Volume Confirmation
HIGH
Confidence Score
57.7%
Protect Your Profits
Holding AGCO? Use our AI-powered strategies to protect your downside while keeping your long-term position.
View Profit Protection PlanAll Signals
- NEUTRAL: Price in fair range
- BULLISH: Options cheap (IV 22th percentile)
- BEARISH: Weak technical setup (25/100)
- BULLISH: High volume confirmation
- BULLISH: Trading below Wall St target ($129.73)
Trading Range Analysis
30-Day Trading Range
$111.80 -
$117.15
Current vs Trading Range
FAIR
Expected Move (7 Days)
±$6.57
(5.8%)
Support & Resistance Levels
Support Level
$111.87
Resistance Level
$120.86
Current Trend
Downtrend
Technical data as of
Jul 14, 2026
Fundamental Context
Forward P/E (Next Year Est.)
14.19
Wall Street Target
$129.73
(+13.7%)
Revenue Growth (YoY)
14.3%
Earnings Growth (YoY)
441.9%
Profit Margin
7.4%
Valuation Discount vs History
-3.3% cheaper
PE vs Historical
14.2 vs 15.7
FAIR
Market-Implied Price Targets
If current PE multiple persists
Implied Growth (YoY):
-3.3%
(market-implied from PE analysis)
1-Year Target
$110.37
(-3%)
2-Year Target
$106.73
(-7%)
3-Year Target
$103.21
(-10%)
3-Yr Target (if PE normalizes)
(PE: 14→16)
$114.20
(+0%)
3-Year Scenarios
Using analyst projected EPS growth
Bull:
(PE: 21.8, Growth: 33.1%)
$413.53
(+262%)
Base:
(SPY PE: 14.2, Growth: 33.1%)
$269.40
(+136%)
Bear:
(PE: 12.1, Growth: 33.1%)
$228.99
(+101%)
📈
Valuation based on Current Earnings
Trailing PE: 10.96 | Current EPS (TTM): $10.37
Bull Case
$96.94
(-15%)
Analyst growth -22.4%, PE expands to 12.1
Base Case
$88.13
(-23%)
Market implied -22.4%, PE stable at 11.0
Bear Case
$77.25
(-32%)
Severe decline -20.0%, PE contracts to 9.3
These are projections based on PE multiples and EPS growth scenarios, not predictions. Actual results may vary significantly.
💡
Upside Surprise Potential
If earnings stabilize (0% growth), PE could expand from 14.2 to 15.7
Stabilization Target:
$126.30
(+10.7%)
PE Expansion Potential:
+10.7%
Share & Embed Analysis
Last updated: July 15, 2026 12:35 AM ET
Data refreshes hourly during market hours. Next update: 1:35 AM
Data refreshes hourly during market hours. Next update: 1:35 AM
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Technical Signals Check
Is AGCO showing a specific setup today?
Insider Activity (6 Months)
0
Buys
1
Sells
Net
INSIDERS SELLING
Recent Transactions
Kelvin Eugene Bennett
SELL
2300 shares
2026-02-17
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Advanced AGCO Option Strategies
Professional options setups generated by AI based on today's AGCO price and gamma walls.
