CNH Stock Analysis: Buy, Sell, or Hold?

CNH - CNH INDUSTRIAL N.V.

CONSTRUCTION MACHINERY & EQUIP
$10.25
-0.07 (-0.68%) ▼
5d: -8.07%
30d: -6.14%
90d: -4.3%
HOLD
LOW Confidence
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Analysis Updated: Jul 31, 2026 12:00 AM ET
Earnings: Aug 03, 2026 0d
Smart Money Accumulation

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Strength: 7.1/10

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Interactive Price Chart (1 Month)

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💡
Bottom Line:
📊 HOLD: CNH shows mixed signals. Fine to hold existing positions. Not urgent to buy or sell.
See Forward Earnings Fair Value & Price Prediction →

Long-Term Wealth Forecast (2031)

Based on Analyst Consensus Growth & Historical Valuation

0% (Stagnation) 50% (Hyper Growth)
EST. PRICE IN 2031
$22.95
Based on 14.5% avg growth
INTRINSIC VALUE TODAY
$14.25
28.1% Margin of Safety

How this is calculated: We use a Growth Decay Model: starting with analyst consensus growth (adjusted above) and gradually slowing it down to a long-term terminal rate (4%) by Year 5. This provides a more realistic valuation than assuming constant hyper-growth. We then apply a 16.1x Exit PE.

In-depth Analysis How we analyze

Valuation Analysis: CNH is currently trading at $10.25, which is considered oversold relative to its 30-day fair value range of $10.28 to $11.02. From a valuation perspective, the stock is trading at a discount (Forward PE: 14.0) compared to its historical average (16.1). Remarkably, the market is currently pricing in an annual earnings decline of 4.5% over the next few years. This aligns with recent fundamental challenges.

Technical Outlook: Technically, CNH is in a downtrend. The price is currently testing key support at $10.11. A bounce from this level would confirm strength, while a break below could signal further downside.

Market Sentiment: The stock shows a mixed technical setup (40/100), with neutral trendline and momentum signals. Wall Street analysts see significant upside, with an average price target of $13.28 (+29.6%). The stock is fairly positioned - fine to hold existing positions or accumulate slowly on dips, but not an urgent buy.

Quick Decision Summary

Current Position OVERSOLD
Historical Trading Range $10.28 - $11.02
Company Quality Score 51/100 (HOLD)
Volume Confirmation HIGH
Confidence Score 79.5%

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All Signals

  • BULLISH: Price oversold vs 30-day range
  • NEUTRAL: Mixed technical signals (40/100)
  • BULLISH: High volume confirmation
  • BULLISH: Trading 29.6% below Wall St target ($13.28)
  • CAUTION: Recommendation downgraded due to -8.1% 5-day decline

Trading Range Analysis

30-Day Trading Range $10.28 - $11.02
Current vs Trading Range OVERSOLD

Support & Resistance Levels

Support Level $10.11
Resistance Level $11.45
Current Trend Downtrend
Technical data as of Jul 31, 2026

Fundamental Context

Forward P/E (Next Year Est.) 14.00
Wall Street Target $13.28 (+29.6%)
Revenue Growth (YoY) -0.1%
Earnings Growth (YoY) -94.4%
Profit Margin 2.1%
Valuation Discount vs History -4.5% cheaper
PE vs Historical 14.0 vs 16.1 CHEAP
Market-Implied Price Targets If current PE multiple persists
Implied Growth (YoY): -4.5% (market-implied from PE analysis)
1-Year Target $9.79 (-5%)
2-Year Target $9.35 (-9%)
3-Year Target $8.93 (-13%)
3-Yr Target (if PE normalizes) (PE: 14→16) $10.27 (+0%)
3-Year Scenarios Using analyst projected EPS growth
Bull: (PE: 20.7, Growth: 77.1%) $51.22 (+400%)
Base: (SPY PE: 14.0, Growth: 77.1%) $34.59 (+238%)
Bear: (PE: 11.9, Growth: 77.1%) $29.40 (+187%)
📈 Valuation based on Current Earnings
RECOVERY PLAY: Stock looks expensive now (33x PE), but valuation improves significantly next year (14x PE) as earnings recover.
Trailing PE: 33.29 | Current EPS (TTM): $0.31
Bull Case $22.70 (+122%)
Analyst growth 100.0%, PE expands to 36.6
Base Case $20.64 (+101%)
Market implied 100.0%, PE stable at 33.3
Bear Case $7.02 (-32%)
Severe decline -20.0%, PE contracts to 28.3
These are projections based on PE multiples and EPS growth scenarios, not predictions. Actual results may vary significantly.
💡 Upside Surprise Potential
If earnings stabilize (0% growth), PE could expand from 14.0 to 16.1
Stabilization Target: $11.79 (+15.0%)
PE Expansion Potential: +15.0%
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Last updated: August 02, 2026 10:03 PM ET
Data refreshes hourly during market hours. Next update: 11:03 PM
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Ticker Score Recommendation Change %
Insider Activity (6 Months)
0
Buys
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Sells
0
Net
NEUTRAL

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Advanced CNH Option Strategies

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