AJG Stock Analysis: Buy, Sell, or Hold?
AJG - Arthur J. Gallagher & Co.
$262.00
-0.15 (-0.06%)
âŧ
5d:
-2.42%
30d:
+5.73%
90d:
+27.33%
WAIT
LOW Confidence
Analysis Updated: Sep 1, 2026 12:00 AM ET
Earnings: Jul 30, 2026
0d
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Interactive Price Chart (1 Month)
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Bottom Line:
âšī¸ NEUTRAL: AJG is fairly priced but lacks strong directional signals. At 3.0% expected growth, valuation appears fair. Wait for clearer setup or better entry on dips.
âšī¸ NEUTRAL: AJG is fairly priced but lacks strong directional signals. At 3.0% expected growth, valuation appears fair. Wait for clearer setup or better entry on dips.
Long-Term Wealth Forecast (2031)
Based on Analyst Consensus Growth & Historical Valuation
0% (Stagnation)
50% (Hyper Growth)
EST. PRICE IN 2031
$359.71
Based on 8.5% avg growth
INTRINSIC VALUE TODAY
$223.35
Trading above historical range
How this is calculated: We use a Growth Decay Model: starting with analyst consensus growth (adjusted above) and gradually slowing it down to a long-term terminal rate (4%) by Year 5. This provides a more realistic valuation than assuming constant hyper-growth. We then apply a 16.1x Exit PE.
In-depth Analysis How we analyze
Valuation Analysis: AJG is currently trading at $262.00, which is considered slightly high relative to its 30-day fair value range of $249.28 to $264.20. The stock's valuation (Forward PE: 17.6) is in line with its historical norms (16.1). At these levels, the market is pricing in 3.0% annual earnings growth.
Technical Outlook: Technically, AJG is in a strong uptrend. Immediate support is located at $249.11, while resistance sits at $272.79.
Market Sentiment: AJG scores 13/100 on our bottoming-setup gauge. Note this measures entry quality, not trend direction — a low score can mean the chart is extended after a strong run (don't chase) or still falling without stabilization; better entries typically come after a pullback toward the 20-day average. Wall Street analysts see significant upside, with an average price target of $291.56 (+11.3%). Current signals suggest waiting for a better entry point before initiating new positions.
Technical Outlook: Technically, AJG is in a strong uptrend. Immediate support is located at $249.11, while resistance sits at $272.79.
Market Sentiment: AJG scores 13/100 on our bottoming-setup gauge. Note this measures entry quality, not trend direction — a low score can mean the chart is extended after a strong run (don't chase) or still falling without stabilization; better entries typically come after a pullback toward the 20-day average. Wall Street analysts see significant upside, with an average price target of $291.56 (+11.3%). Current signals suggest waiting for a better entry point before initiating new positions.
Quick Decision Summary
Current Position
SLIGHTLY HIGH
Historical Trading Range
$249.28 -
$264.20
Company Quality Score
43/100
(HOLD)
Volume Confirmation
HIGH
Confidence Score
43.8%
Protect Your Profits
Holding AJG? Use our AI-powered strategies to protect your downside while keeping your long-term position.
View Profit Protection PlanAll Signals
- BEARISH: Weak technical setup (13/100)
- BULLISH: High volume confirmation
- BULLISH: Trading below Wall St target ($291.56)
- BULLISH: Expecting earnings turnaround to 3.0% growth with 30.9% revenue growth
- WARNING: Composite score 43/100 in the bottom quintile â this cohort historically lags the market
Trading Range Analysis
30-Day Trading Range
$249.28 -
$264.20
Current vs Trading Range
SLIGHTLY HIGH
Support & Resistance Levels
Support Level
$249.11
Resistance Level
$272.79
Current Trend
Strong Uptrend
Technical data as of
Sep 1, 2026
Fundamental Context
Forward P/E (Next Year Est.)
17.59
Wall Street Target
$291.56
(+11.3%)
Revenue Growth (YoY)
30.9%
Earnings Growth (YoY)
-10.7%
Profit Margin
10.4%
Valuation Premium vs History
+3.0% premium
PE vs Historical
17.6 vs 16.1
FAIR
Market-Implied Price Targets
If current PE multiple persists
Implied Growth (YoY):
+3.0%
(market-implied from PE analysis)
1-Year Target
$269.86
(+3%)
2-Year Target
$277.96
(+6%)
3-Year Target
$286.29
(+9%)
3-Yr Target (if PE normalizes)
(PE: 18â16)
PE COMPRESSION
$261.97
(0%)
Earnings growth offset by PE compression
3-Year Scenarios
Using analyst projected EPS growth
Bull:
(PE: 20.1, Growth: 13.0%)
$431.31
(+65%)
Base:
(SPY PE: 17.6, Growth: 13.0%)
$377.55
(+44%)
Bear:
(PE: 15.0, Growth: 13.0%)
$320.92
(+23%)
đ
Valuation based on Current Earnings
RECOVERY PLAY: Stock looks expensive now (44x PE), but valuation improves significantly next year (18x PE) as earnings recover.
Trailing PE: 43.55 | Current EPS (TTM): $6.02
Bull Case
$576.73
(+120%)
Analyst growth 100.0%, PE expands to 47.9
Base Case
$524.30
(+100%)
Market implied 100.0%, PE stable at 43.6
Bear Case
$178.26
(-32%)
Severe decline -20.0%, PE contracts to 37.0
These are projections based on PE multiples and EPS growth scenarios, not predictions. Actual results may vary significantly.
Share & Embed Analysis
Last updated: September 01, 2026 10:46 PM ET
Data refreshes hourly during market hours. Next update: 11:46 PM
Data refreshes hourly during market hours. Next update: 11:46 PM
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Technical Signals Check
Is AJG showing a specific setup today?
Insider Activity (6 Months)
3
Buys
3
Sells
0
Net
INSIDERS SELLING
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