AJG Stock Analysis: Buy, Sell, or Hold?
AJG - Arthur J. Gallagher & Co.
$247.79
-1.63 (-0.65%)
▼
5d:
-2.2%
30d:
-1.84%
90d:
+19.07%
BUY
MODERATE Confidence
Analysis Updated: Aug 3, 2026 12:00 AM ET
Earnings: Jul 30, 2026
0d
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Interactive Price Chart (1 Month)
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Bottom Line:
💡 BUY OPPORTUNITY: AJG shows positive signals but monitor for confirmation. Market pricing in 1.5% growth. Moderate conviction.
💡 BUY OPPORTUNITY: AJG shows positive signals but monitor for confirmation. Market pricing in 1.5% growth. Moderate conviction.
Long-Term Wealth Forecast (2031)
Based on Analyst Consensus Growth & Historical Valuation
0% (Stagnation)
50% (Hyper Growth)
EST. PRICE IN 2031
$352.85
Based on 8.3% avg growth
INTRINSIC VALUE TODAY
$219.09
Trading above historical range
How this is calculated: We use a Growth Decay Model: starting with analyst consensus growth (adjusted above) and gradually slowing it down to a long-term terminal rate (4%) by Year 5. This provides a more realistic valuation than assuming constant hyper-growth. We then apply a 16.0x Exit PE.
In-depth Analysis How we analyze
Valuation Analysis: AJG is currently trading at $247.79, which is considered fair relative to its 30-day fair value range of $236.81 to $260.14. The stock's valuation (Forward PE: 16.7) is in line with its historical norms (16.0). At these levels, the market is pricing in 1.5% annual earnings growth.
Technical Outlook: Technically, AJG is in a uptrend. The price is currently testing key support at $240.98. A bounce from this level would confirm strength, while a break below could signal further downside.
Market Sentiment: The stock shows a mixed technical setup (40/100), with neutral trendline and momentum signals. Wall Street analysts see significant upside, with an average price target of $287.22 (+15.9%). Combining these factors, the current setup offers a favorable risk/reward ratio for buyers.
Technical Outlook: Technically, AJG is in a uptrend. The price is currently testing key support at $240.98. A bounce from this level would confirm strength, while a break below could signal further downside.
Market Sentiment: The stock shows a mixed technical setup (40/100), with neutral trendline and momentum signals. Wall Street analysts see significant upside, with an average price target of $287.22 (+15.9%). Combining these factors, the current setup offers a favorable risk/reward ratio for buyers.
Quick Decision Summary
Current Position
FAIR
Historical Trading Range
$236.81 -
$260.14
Company Quality Score
57/100
(HOLD)
Volume Confirmation
HIGH
Confidence Score
73.3%
All Signals
- NEUTRAL: Price in fair range
- NEUTRAL: Mixed technical signals (40/100)
- BULLISH: High volume confirmation
- BULLISH: Trading below Wall St target ($287.22)
- BULLISH: Expecting earnings turnaround to 1.5% growth with 31.0% revenue growth
Trading Range Analysis
30-Day Trading Range
$236.81 -
$260.14
Current vs Trading Range
FAIR
Support & Resistance Levels
Support Level
$240.98
Resistance Level
$269.99
Current Trend
Uptrend
Technical data as of
Aug 3, 2026
Fundamental Context
Forward P/E (Next Year Est.)
16.67
Wall Street Target
$287.22
(+15.9%)
Revenue Growth (YoY)
31.0%
Earnings Growth (YoY)
-10.7%
Profit Margin
10.4%
Valuation Premium vs History
+1.5% premium
PE vs Historical
16.7 vs 16.0
FAIR
Market-Implied Price Targets
If current PE multiple persists
Implied Growth (YoY):
+1.5%
(market-implied from PE analysis)
1-Year Target
$251.51
(+2%)
2-Year Target
$255.28
(+3%)
3-Year Target
$259.11
(+5%)
3-Yr Target (if PE normalizes)
(PE: 17→16)
PE COMPRESSION
$248.70
(+0%)
Earnings growth offset by PE compression
3-Year Scenarios
Using analyst projected EPS growth
Bull:
(PE: 20.7, Growth: 12.5%)
$439.25
(+77%)
Base:
(SPY PE: 16.7, Growth: 12.5%)
$353.21
(+43%)
Bear:
(PE: 14.2, Growth: 12.5%)
$300.22
(+21%)
📈
Valuation based on Current Earnings
RECOVERY PLAY: Stock looks expensive now (41x PE), but valuation improves significantly next year (17x PE) as earnings recover.
Trailing PE: 41.29 | Current EPS (TTM): $6.04
Bull Case
$548.72
(+121%)
Analyst growth 100.0%, PE expands to 45.4
Base Case
$498.84
(+101%)
Market implied 100.0%, PE stable at 41.3
Bear Case
$169.61
(-32%)
Severe decline -20.0%, PE contracts to 35.1
These are projections based on PE multiples and EPS growth scenarios, not predictions. Actual results may vary significantly.
Share & Embed Analysis
Last updated: August 04, 2026 9:03 AM ET
Data refreshes hourly during market hours. Next update: 10:03 AM
Data refreshes hourly during market hours. Next update: 10:03 AM
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Technical Signals Check
Is AJG showing a specific setup today?
Insider Activity (6 Months)
4
Buys
7
Sells
Net
INSIDERS SELLING
Recent Transactions
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