The Baldwin Insurance Group (BWIN) Stock: Buy, Sell, or Hold?
BWIN - The Baldwin Insurance Group, Inc. Class A Common Stock
$31.89
-0.03 (-0.09%)
▼
5d:
-0.13%
30d:
+0.13%
90d:
+20.48%
HOLD
MODERATE Confidence
Analysis Updated: Oct 22, 2026 12:00 AM ET
Earnings: Nov 03, 2026
10d
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Interactive Price Chart (1 Month)
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Bottom Line:
📊 HOLD: BWIN trades at premium valuation expecting 6.9% growth. Hold existing positions but don't chase. Wait for better entry.
📊 HOLD: BWIN trades at premium valuation expecting 6.9% growth. Hold existing positions but don't chase. Wait for better entry.
Long-Term Wealth Forecast (2031)
Based on Analyst Consensus Growth & Historical Valuation
0% (Stagnation)
50% (Hyper Growth)
EST. PRICE IN 2031
$48.80
Based on 13.6% avg growth
INTRINSIC VALUE TODAY
$30.30
Trading above historical range
How this is calculated: We use a Growth Decay Model: starting with analyst consensus growth (adjusted above) and gradually slowing it down to a long-term terminal rate (4%) by Year 5. This provides a more realistic valuation than assuming constant hyper-growth. We then apply a 10.5x Exit PE.
In-depth Analysis How we analyze
Valuation Analysis: BWIN is currently trading at $31.89, which is considered fair relative to its 30-day fair value range of $31.77 to $32.03. From a valuation perspective, the stock is trading at a premium (Forward PE: 12.9) compared to its historical average (10.5). At these levels, the market is pricing in 6.9% annual earnings growth.
Technical Outlook: Technically, BWIN is in a strong uptrend. The price is currently testing key support at $31.84. A bounce from this level would confirm strength, while a break below could signal further downside.
Market Sentiment: The stock scores a mixed 57/100 on our bottoming-setup gauge, with only partial signs of a stabilized entry point. The stock is fairly positioned - fine to hold existing positions or accumulate slowly on dips, but not an urgent buy.
Technical Outlook: Technically, BWIN is in a strong uptrend. The price is currently testing key support at $31.84. A bounce from this level would confirm strength, while a break below could signal further downside.
Market Sentiment: The stock scores a mixed 57/100 on our bottoming-setup gauge, with only partial signs of a stabilized entry point. The stock is fairly positioned - fine to hold existing positions or accumulate slowly on dips, but not an urgent buy.
Quick Decision Summary
Current Position
FAIR
Historical Trading Range
$31.77 -
$32.03
Company Quality Score
57/100
(HOLD)
Volume Confirmation
HIGH
Confidence Score
71.0%
All Signals
- NEUTRAL: Price in fair range
- NEUTRAL: Mixed technical signals (57/100)
- BULLISH: High volume confirmation
- NEUTRAL: Near Wall St target ($32.42)
- BULLISH: Expecting earnings turnaround to 6.9% growth with 30.1% revenue growth
- NEUTRAL: Bottoming setup forming (57/100) — watch for confirmation
Trading Range Analysis
30-Day Trading Range
$31.77 -
$32.03
Current vs Trading Range
FAIR
Support & Resistance Levels
Support Level
$31.84
Resistance Level
$32.04
Current Trend
Strong Uptrend
Technical data as of
Oct 22, 2026
Fundamental Context
Forward P/E (Next Year Est.)
12.87
Wall Street Target
$32.42
(+1.7%)
Revenue Growth (YoY)
30.1%
Earnings Growth (YoY)
-90.0%
Profit Margin
-4.7%
Valuation Premium vs History
+6.9% premium
PE vs Historical
12.9 vs 10.5
STRETCHED
Market-Implied Price Targets
If current PE multiple persists
Implied Growth (YoY):
+6.9%
(market-implied from PE analysis)
1-Year Target
$34.09
(+7%)
2-Year Target
$36.44
(+14%)
3-Year Target
$38.96
(+22%)
3-Yr Target (if PE normalizes)
(PE: 13→11)
PE COMPRESSION
$31.80
(0%)
Earnings growth offset by PE compression
3-Year Scenarios
Using analyst projected EPS growth
Bull:
(PE: 19.9, Growth: 23.2%)
$92.00
(+189%)
Base:
(SPY PE: 12.9, Growth: 23.2%)
$59.60
(+87%)
Bear:
(PE: 10.5, Growth: 23.2%)
$48.64
(+53%)
Share & Embed Analysis
Last updated: October 23, 2026 12:09 AM ET
Data refreshes hourly during market hours. Next update: 1:09 AM
Data refreshes hourly during market hours. Next update: 1:09 AM
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Technical Signals Check
Is BWIN showing a specific setup today?
Insider Activity (6 Months)
0
Buys
0
Sells
0
Net
NEUTRAL
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