The Baldwin Insurance Group (BWIN) Stock: Buy, Sell, or Hold?
BWIN - The Baldwin Insurance Group, Inc. Class A Common Stock
$29.65
0.26 (0.88%)
▲
5d:
-5.03%
30d:
-4.39%
90d:
+60.53%
HOLD
MODERATE Confidence
Analysis Updated: Sep 11, 2026 12:00 AM ET
Earnings: Nov 03, 2026
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Interactive Price Chart (1 Month)
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Bottom Line:
📊 HOLD: BWIN trades at premium valuation expecting 5.5% growth. Hold existing positions but don't chase. Wait for better entry.
📊 HOLD: BWIN trades at premium valuation expecting 5.5% growth. Hold existing positions but don't chase. Wait for better entry.
Long-Term Wealth Forecast (2031)
Based on Analyst Consensus Growth & Historical Valuation
0% (Stagnation)
50% (Hyper Growth)
EST. PRICE IN 2031
$47.41
Based on 13.6% avg growth
INTRINSIC VALUE TODAY
$29.44
Trading above historical range
How this is calculated: We use a Growth Decay Model: starting with analyst consensus growth (adjusted above) and gradually slowing it down to a long-term terminal rate (4%) by Year 5. This provides a more realistic valuation than assuming constant hyper-growth. We then apply a 10.2x Exit PE.
In-depth Analysis How we analyze
Valuation Analysis: BWIN is currently trading at $29.65, which is considered oversold relative to its 30-day fair value range of $29.32 to $31.29. From a valuation perspective, the stock is trading at a premium (Forward PE: 12.0) compared to its historical average (10.2). At these levels, the market is pricing in 5.5% annual earnings growth.
Technical Outlook: Technically, BWIN is in a strong uptrend. Immediate support is located at $27.74, while resistance sits at $31.90.
Market Sentiment: The stock scores a mixed 49/100 on our bottoming-setup gauge, with only partial signs of a stabilized entry point. The stock is fairly positioned - fine to hold existing positions or accumulate slowly on dips, but not an urgent buy.
Technical Outlook: Technically, BWIN is in a strong uptrend. Immediate support is located at $27.74, while resistance sits at $31.90.
Market Sentiment: The stock scores a mixed 49/100 on our bottoming-setup gauge, with only partial signs of a stabilized entry point. The stock is fairly positioned - fine to hold existing positions or accumulate slowly on dips, but not an urgent buy.
Quick Decision Summary
Current Position
OVERSOLD
Historical Trading Range
$29.32 -
$31.29
Company Quality Score
53/100
(HOLD)
Volume Confirmation
HIGH
Confidence Score
78.1%
All Signals
- BULLISH: Price oversold vs 30-day range
- NEUTRAL: Mixed technical signals (49/100)
- BULLISH: High volume confirmation
- NEUTRAL: Near Wall St target ($32.22)
- BULLISH: Expecting earnings turnaround to 5.5% growth with 30.1% revenue growth
- NEUTRAL: Bottoming setup forming (49/100) — watch for confirmation
- CAUTION: 5-day price weakness (-5.0%) - monitor closely
Trading Range Analysis
30-Day Trading Range
$29.32 -
$31.29
Current vs Trading Range
OVERSOLD
Support & Resistance Levels
Support Level
$27.74
Resistance Level
$31.90
Current Trend
Strong Uptrend
Technical data as of
Sep 11, 2026
Fundamental Context
Forward P/E (Next Year Est.)
11.96
Wall Street Target
$32.22
(+8.7%)
Revenue Growth (YoY)
30.1%
Earnings Growth (YoY)
-90.0%
Profit Margin
-4.7%
Valuation Premium vs History
+5.5% premium
PE vs Historical
12.0 vs 10.2
STRETCHED
Market-Implied Price Targets
If current PE multiple persists
Implied Growth (YoY):
+5.5%
(market-implied from PE analysis)
1-Year Target
$31.28
(+6%)
2-Year Target
$33.00
(+11%)
3-Year Target
$34.82
(+17%)
3-Yr Target (if PE normalizes)
(PE: 12→10)
PE COMPRESSION
$29.69
(+0%)
Earnings growth offset by PE compression
3-Year Scenarios
Using analyst projected EPS growth
Bull:
(PE: 20.2, Growth: 23.2%)
$93.50
(+215%)
Base:
(SPY PE: 12.0, Growth: 23.2%)
$55.44
(+87%)
Bear:
(PE: 10.2, Growth: 23.2%)
$47.13
(+59%)
Share & Embed Analysis
Last updated: September 12, 2026 8:24 AM ET
Data refreshes hourly during market hours. Next update: 9:24 AM
Data refreshes hourly during market hours. Next update: 9:24 AM
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Technical Signals Check
Is BWIN showing a specific setup today?
Insider Activity (6 Months)
0
Buys
0
Sells
0
Net
NEUTRAL
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