The Baldwin Insurance Group (BWIN) Stock: Buy, Sell, or Hold?
BWIN - The Baldwin Insurance Group, Inc. Class A Common Stock
$31.84
0.07 (0.20%)
â˛
5d:
+0.05%
30d:
+1.97%
90d:
+16.61%
WAIT
LOW Confidence
Analysis Updated: Oct 2, 2026 12:00 AM ET
Earnings: Nov 03, 2026
28d
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Interactive Price Chart (1 Month)
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Bottom Line:
âšī¸ NEUTRAL: BWIN is fairly priced but lacks strong directional signals. At 7.3% expected growth, valuation appears stretched. Wait for clearer setup or better entry on dips.
âšī¸ NEUTRAL: BWIN is fairly priced but lacks strong directional signals. At 7.3% expected growth, valuation appears stretched. Wait for clearer setup or better entry on dips.
Long-Term Wealth Forecast (2031)
Based on Analyst Consensus Growth & Historical Valuation
0% (Stagnation)
50% (Hyper Growth)
EST. PRICE IN 2031
$48.34
Based on 13.6% avg growth
INTRINSIC VALUE TODAY
$30.01
Trading above historical range
How this is calculated: We use a Growth Decay Model: starting with analyst consensus growth (adjusted above) and gradually slowing it down to a long-term terminal rate (4%) by Year 5. This provides a more realistic valuation than assuming constant hyper-growth. We then apply a 10.4x Exit PE.
In-depth Analysis How we analyze
Valuation Analysis: BWIN is currently trading at $31.84, which is considered slightly high relative to its 30-day fair value range of $30.17 to $32.13. From a valuation perspective, the stock is trading at a premium (Forward PE: 12.8) compared to its historical average (10.4). At these levels, the market is pricing in 7.3% annual earnings growth.
Technical Outlook: Technically, BWIN is in a strong uptrend. The price is currently testing key support at $31.70. A bounce from this level would confirm strength, while a break below could signal further downside.
Market Sentiment: BWIN scores 37/100 on our bottoming-setup gauge. Note this measures entry quality, not trend direction — a low score can mean the chart is extended after a strong run (don't chase) or still falling without stabilization; better entries typically come after a pullback toward the 20-day average. Current signals suggest waiting for a better entry point before initiating new positions.
Technical Outlook: Technically, BWIN is in a strong uptrend. The price is currently testing key support at $31.70. A bounce from this level would confirm strength, while a break below could signal further downside.
Market Sentiment: BWIN scores 37/100 on our bottoming-setup gauge. Note this measures entry quality, not trend direction — a low score can mean the chart is extended after a strong run (don't chase) or still falling without stabilization; better entries typically come after a pullback toward the 20-day average. Current signals suggest waiting for a better entry point before initiating new positions.
Quick Decision Summary
Current Position
SLIGHTLY HIGH
Historical Trading Range
$30.17 -
$32.13
Company Quality Score
48/100
(HOLD)
Volume Confirmation
MODERATE
Confidence Score
36.7%
All Signals
- BEARISH: Weak technical setup (37/100)
- NEUTRAL: Near Wall St target ($33.67)
- BULLISH: Expecting earnings turnaround to 7.3% growth with 30.1% revenue growth
- WARNING: Composite score 48/100 in the bottom quintile â this cohort historically lags the market
Trading Range Analysis
30-Day Trading Range
$30.17 -
$32.13
Current vs Trading Range
SLIGHTLY HIGH
Support & Resistance Levels
Support Level
$31.70
Resistance Level
$31.96
Current Trend
Strong Uptrend
Technical data as of
Oct 2, 2026
Fundamental Context
Forward P/E (Next Year Est.)
12.82
Wall Street Target
$33.67
(+6.0%)
Revenue Growth (YoY)
30.1%
Earnings Growth (YoY)
-90.0%
Profit Margin
-4.7%
Valuation Premium vs History
+7.3% premium
PE vs Historical
12.8 vs 10.4
STRETCHED
Market-Implied Price Targets
If current PE multiple persists
Implied Growth (YoY):
+7.3%
(market-implied from PE analysis)
1-Year Target
$34.09
(+7%)
2-Year Target
$36.58
(+15%)
3-Year Target
$39.25
(+24%)
3-Yr Target (if PE normalizes)
(PE: 13â10)
PE COMPRESSION
$31.85
(+0%)
Earnings growth offset by PE compression
3-Year Scenarios
Using analyst projected EPS growth
Bull:
(PE: 20.4, Growth: 23.2%)
$94.50
(+198%)
Base:
(SPY PE: 12.8, Growth: 23.2%)
$59.37
(+87%)
Bear:
(PE: 10.4, Growth: 23.2%)
$48.18
(+52%)
Share & Embed Analysis
Last updated: October 05, 2026 9:52 AM ET
Data refreshes hourly during market hours. Next update: 10:52 AM
Data refreshes hourly during market hours. Next update: 10:52 AM
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Technical Signals Check
Is BWIN showing a specific setup today?
Insider Activity (6 Months)
0
Buys
0
Sells
0
Net
NEUTRAL
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