Alkermes (ALKS) Stock: Buy, Sell, or Hold?
ALKS - Alkermes Inc. plc
$44.18
0.70 (1.61%)
▲
5d:
+10.17%
30d:
+4.87%
90d:
-16.47%
WAIT
LOW Confidence
Analysis Updated: Oct 22, 2026 12:00 AM ET
Earnings: Oct 27, 2026
4d
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Interactive Price Chart (1 Month)
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Bottom Line:
📊 MIXED SIGNALS: ALKS shows conflicting indicators. Wait for confirmation before entering.
📊 MIXED SIGNALS: ALKS shows conflicting indicators. Wait for confirmation before entering.
Long-Term Wealth Forecast (2031)
Based on Analyst Consensus Growth & Historical Valuation
0% (Stagnation)
50% (Hyper Growth)
EST. PRICE IN 2031
$78.52
Based on 14.5% avg growth
INTRINSIC VALUE TODAY
$48.76
9.4% Margin of Safety
How this is calculated: We use a Growth Decay Model: starting with analyst consensus growth (adjusted above) and gradually slowing it down to a long-term terminal rate (4%) by Year 5. This provides a more realistic valuation than assuming constant hyper-growth. We then apply a 22.3x Exit PE.
In-depth Analysis How we analyze
Valuation Analysis: ALKS is currently trading at $44.18, which is considered extended relative to its 30-day fair value range of $40.13 to $44.35. The stock's valuation (Forward PE: 24.4) is in line with its historical norms (22.3). At these levels, the market is pricing in 3.1% annual earnings growth.
Technical Outlook: Technically, ALKS is in a downtrend. The price is approaching resistance at $45.20. A breakout above this level would be a bullish signal, while rejection here could lead to consolidation.
Market Sentiment: ALKS scores 38/100 on our bottoming-setup gauge. Note this measures entry quality, not trend direction — a low score can mean the chart is extended after a strong run (don't chase) or still falling without stabilization; better entries typically come after a pullback toward the 20-day average. Wall Street analysts see significant upside, with an average price target of $56.21 (+27.2%). Current signals suggest waiting for a better entry point before initiating new positions.
Technical Outlook: Technically, ALKS is in a downtrend. The price is approaching resistance at $45.20. A breakout above this level would be a bullish signal, while rejection here could lead to consolidation.
Market Sentiment: ALKS scores 38/100 on our bottoming-setup gauge. Note this measures entry quality, not trend direction — a low score can mean the chart is extended after a strong run (don't chase) or still falling without stabilization; better entries typically come after a pullback toward the 20-day average. Wall Street analysts see significant upside, with an average price target of $56.21 (+27.2%). Current signals suggest waiting for a better entry point before initiating new positions.
Quick Decision Summary
Current Position
EXTENDED
Historical Trading Range
$40.13 -
$44.35
Company Quality Score
43/100
(HOLD)
Volume Confirmation
HIGH
Confidence Score
31.9%
Protect Your Profits
Holding ALKS? Use our AI-powered strategies to protect your downside while keeping your long-term position.
View Profit Protection PlanAll Signals
- BEARISH: Price extended above range
- BEARISH: Weak technical setup (38/100)
- BULLISH: High volume confirmation
- BULLISH: Trading 27.2% below Wall St target ($56.21)
- BULLISH: Expecting earnings turnaround to 3.1% growth with 27.0% revenue growth
- WARNING: Composite score 42/100 in the bottom quintile — this cohort historically lags the market
Trading Range Analysis
30-Day Trading Range
$40.13 -
$44.35
Current vs Trading Range
EXTENDED
Support & Resistance Levels
Support Level
$38.98
Resistance Level
$45.20
Current Trend
Downtrend
Technical data as of
Oct 22, 2026
Fundamental Context
Forward P/E (Next Year Est.)
24.43
Wall Street Target
$56.21
(+27.2%)
Revenue Growth (YoY)
27.0%
Earnings Growth (YoY)
-99.4%
Profit Margin
4.0%
Valuation Premium vs History
+3.1% premium
PE vs Historical
24.4 vs 22.3
FAIR
Market-Implied Price Targets
If current PE multiple persists
Implied Growth (YoY):
+3.1%
(market-implied from PE analysis)
1-Year Target
$45.55
(+3%)
2-Year Target
$46.96
(+6%)
3-Year Target
$48.42
(+10%)
3-Yr Target (if PE normalizes)
(PE: 24→22)
PE COMPRESSION
$44.19
(0%)
Earnings growth offset by PE compression
3-Year Scenarios
Using analyst projected EPS growth
Bull:
(PE: 24.4, Growth: 41.8%)
$126.08
(+185%)
Base:
(SPY PE: 19.9, Growth: 41.8%)
$102.48
(+132%)
Bear:
(PE: 16.9, Growth: 41.8%)
$87.11
(+97%)
📈
Valuation based on Current Earnings
RECOVERY PLAY: Stock looks expensive now (133x PE), but valuation improves significantly next year (24x PE) as earnings recover.
Forward PE: 133.33 | Forward EPS (Implied): $0.33
Bull Case
$52.50
(+21%)
Analyst growth 15.0%, PE expands to 140.0
Base Case
$43.48
(0%)
Market implied 0.0%, PE stable at 133.3
Bear Case
$33.26
(-24%)
Severe decline -15.0%, PE contracts to 120.0
These are projections based on PE multiples and EPS growth scenarios, not predictions. Actual results may vary significantly.
Share & Embed Analysis
Last updated: October 22, 2026 5:16 PM ET
Data refreshes hourly during market hours. Next update: 6:16 PM
Data refreshes hourly during market hours. Next update: 6:16 PM
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Technical Signals Check
Is ALKS showing a specific setup today?
Insider Activity (6 Months)
0
Buys
0
Sells
0
Net
NEUTRAL
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Professional options setups generated by AI based on today's ALKS price and gamma walls.
