ALNY Stock Analysis: Buy, Sell, or Hold?
ALNY - Alnylam Pharmaceuticals, Inc.
$227.12
3.17 (1.42%)
â˛
5d:
+5.09%
30d:
-18.64%
90d:
-22.08%
WAIT
LOW Confidence
Analysis Updated: Aug 13, 2026 12:00 AM ET
Earnings: Jul 30, 2026
0d
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Interactive Price Chart (1 Month)
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Bottom Line:
âšī¸ NEUTRAL: ALNY is fairly priced but lacks strong directional signals. At -10.7% expected growth, valuation appears cheap. Wait for clearer setup or better entry on dips.
âšī¸ NEUTRAL: ALNY is fairly priced but lacks strong directional signals. At -10.7% expected growth, valuation appears cheap. Wait for clearer setup or better entry on dips.
Long-Term Wealth Forecast (2031)
Based on Analyst Consensus Growth & Historical Valuation
0% (Stagnation)
50% (Hyper Growth)
EST. PRICE IN 2031
$613.23
Based on 14.5% avg growth
INTRINSIC VALUE TODAY
$380.77
40.4% Margin of Safety
How this is calculated: We use a Growth Decay Model: starting with analyst consensus growth (adjusted above) and gradually slowing it down to a long-term terminal rate (4%) by Year 5. This provides a more realistic valuation than assuming constant hyper-growth. We then apply a 25.0x Exit PE.
In-depth Analysis How we analyze
Valuation Analysis: ALNY is currently trading at $227.12, which is considered slightly low relative to its 30-day fair value range of $224.62 to $297.95. From a valuation perspective, the stock is trading at a discount (Forward PE: 18.0) compared to its historical average (25.3). Remarkably, the market is currently pricing in an annual earnings decline of 10.7% over the next few years. This aligns with recent fundamental challenges.
Technical Outlook: Technically, ALNY is in a strong downtrend. Immediate support is located at $200.11, while resistance sits at $234.00.
Market Sentiment: ALNY scores 75/100 on our bottoming-setup gauge — the chart has corrected and is stabilizing (RSI reset, momentum turning up), historically a favorable entry zone. Wall Street analysts see significant upside, with an average price target of $375.76 (+65.4%). Current signals suggest waiting for a better entry point before initiating new positions.
Technical Outlook: Technically, ALNY is in a strong downtrend. Immediate support is located at $200.11, while resistance sits at $234.00.
Market Sentiment: ALNY scores 75/100 on our bottoming-setup gauge — the chart has corrected and is stabilizing (RSI reset, momentum turning up), historically a favorable entry zone. Wall Street analysts see significant upside, with an average price target of $375.76 (+65.4%). Current signals suggest waiting for a better entry point before initiating new positions.
Quick Decision Summary
Current Position
SLIGHTLY LOW
Historical Trading Range
$224.62 -
$297.95
Company Quality Score
49/100
(HOLD)
Volume Confirmation
HIGH
Confidence Score
90.5%
All Signals
- BULLISH: Price oversold vs 30-day range
- BULLISH: Strong technical setup (75/100)
- BULLISH: High volume confirmation
- BULLISH: Trading 65.4% below Wall St target ($375.76)
- WARNING: Composite score 49/100 in the bottom quintile â this cohort historically lags the market
Trading Range Analysis
30-Day Trading Range
$224.62 -
$297.95
Current vs Trading Range
SLIGHTLY LOW
Support & Resistance Levels
Support Level
$200.11
Resistance Level
$234.00
Current Trend
Strong Downtrend
Technical data as of
Aug 13, 2026
Fundamental Context
Forward P/E (Next Year Est.)
18.03
Wall Street Target
$375.76
(+65.4%)
Revenue Growth (YoY)
66.9%
Profit Margin
16.1%
Valuation Discount vs History
-10.7% cheaper
PE vs Historical
18.0 vs 25.3
CHEAP
Market-Implied Price Targets
If current PE multiple persists
Implied Growth (YoY):
-10.7%
(market-implied from PE analysis)
1-Year Target
$204.41
(-10%)
2-Year Target
$183.97
(-19%)
3-Year Target
$165.57
(-27%)
3-Yr Target (if PE normalizes)
(PE: 18â25)
$232.32
(+2%)
3-Year Scenarios
Using analyst projected EPS growth
Bull:
(PE: 20.2, Growth: 41.0%)
$714.24
(+215%)
Base:
(SPY PE: 18.0, Growth: 41.0%)
$636.60
(+180%)
Bear:
(PE: 15.3, Growth: 41.0%)
$541.11
(+138%)
đ
Valuation based on Current Earnings
RECOVERY PLAY: Stock looks expensive now (39x PE), but valuation improves significantly next year (18x PE) as earnings recover.
Trailing PE: 38.61 | Current EPS (TTM): $5.80
Bull Case
$492.69
(+117%)
Analyst growth 100.0%, PE expands to 42.5
Base Case
$447.90
(+97%)
Market implied 100.0%, PE stable at 38.6
Bear Case
$152.29
(-33%)
Severe decline -20.0%, PE contracts to 32.8
These are projections based on PE multiples and EPS growth scenarios, not predictions. Actual results may vary significantly.
đĄ
Upside Surprise Potential
If earnings stabilize (0% growth), PE could expand from 18.0 to 25.3
Stabilization Target:
$318.68
(+40.3%)
PE Expansion Potential:
+40.3%
Share & Embed Analysis
Last updated: August 13, 2026 10:14 PM ET
Data refreshes hourly during market hours. Next update: 11:14 PM
Data refreshes hourly during market hours. Next update: 11:14 PM
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Technical Signals Check
Is ALNY showing a specific setup today?
Insider Activity (6 Months)
0
Buys
10
Sells
Net
INSIDERS SELLING
Recent Transactions
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SELL
2286 shares
2026-04-06
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1624 shares
2026-04-02
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1652 shares
2026-03-03
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