ALNY Stock Analysis: Buy, Sell, or Hold?
ALNY - Alnylam Pharmaceuticals, Inc.
$282.85
-6.54 (-2.26%)
▼
5d:
-6.67%
30d:
-2.96%
90d:
-9.75%
HOLD
MODERATE Confidence
Analysis Updated: Jun 12, 2026 12:00 AM ET
Earnings: Jul 30, 2026
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Interactive Price Chart (1 Month)
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Bottom Line:
📊 HOLD: ALNY shows mixed signals. Fine to hold existing positions. Not urgent to buy or sell.
📊 HOLD: ALNY shows mixed signals. Fine to hold existing positions. Not urgent to buy or sell.
Long-Term Wealth Forecast (2031)
Based on Analyst Consensus Growth & Historical Valuation
0% (Stagnation)
50% (Hyper Growth)
EST. PRICE IN 2031
$676.60
Based on 14.5% avg growth
INTRINSIC VALUE TODAY
$420.12
32.7% Margin of Safety
How this is calculated: We use a Growth Decay Model: starting with analyst consensus growth (adjusted above) and gradually slowing it down to a long-term terminal rate (4%) by Year 5. This provides a more realistic valuation than assuming constant hyper-growth. We then apply a 25.0x Exit PE.
In-depth Analysis How we analyze
Valuation Analysis: ALNY is currently trading at $282.85, which is considered oversold relative to its 30-day fair value range of $288.97 to $300.77. From a valuation perspective, the stock is trading at a discount (Forward PE: 20.4) compared to its historical average (26.9). Remarkably, the market is currently pricing in an annual earnings decline of 8.9% over the next few years. This aligns with recent fundamental challenges.
Technical Outlook: Technically, ALNY is in a strong downtrend. The price is currently testing key support at $281.76. A bounce from this level would confirm strength, while a break below could signal further downside.
Market Sentiment: ALNY has a weak technical setup (25/100), with bearish trendlines and momentum suggesting caution for short-term entries. Wall Street analysts see significant upside, with an average price target of $441.31 (+56.0%). The stock is fairly positioned - fine to hold existing positions or accumulate slowly on dips, but not an urgent buy.
Technical Outlook: Technically, ALNY is in a strong downtrend. The price is currently testing key support at $281.76. A bounce from this level would confirm strength, while a break below could signal further downside.
Market Sentiment: ALNY has a weak technical setup (25/100), with bearish trendlines and momentum suggesting caution for short-term entries. Wall Street analysts see significant upside, with an average price target of $441.31 (+56.0%). The stock is fairly positioned - fine to hold existing positions or accumulate slowly on dips, but not an urgent buy.
Quick Decision Summary
Current Position
OVERSOLD
Historical Trading Range
$288.97 -
$300.77
Company Quality Score
57/100
(HOLD)
Volume Confirmation
HIGH
Confidence Score
57.1%
All Signals
- BULLISH: Price oversold vs 30-day range
- BEARISH: Weak technical setup (25/100)
- BULLISH: High volume confirmation
- BULLISH: Trading 56.0% below Wall St target ($441.31)
- CAUTION: 5-day price weakness (-6.7%) - monitor closely
Trading Range Analysis
30-Day Trading Range
$288.97 -
$300.77
Current vs Trading Range
OVERSOLD
Support & Resistance Levels
Support Level
$281.77
Resistance Level
$310.53
Current Trend
Strong Downtrend
Technical data as of
Jun 12, 2026
Fundamental Context
Forward P/E (Next Year Est.)
20.35
Wall Street Target
$441.31
(+56.0%)
Revenue Growth (YoY)
96.4%
Profit Margin
12.6%
Valuation Discount vs History
-8.9% cheaper
PE vs Historical
20.4 vs 26.9
CHEAP
Market-Implied Price Targets
If current PE multiple persists
Implied Growth (YoY):
-8.9%
(market-implied from PE analysis)
1-Year Target
$257.68
(-9%)
2-Year Target
$234.74
(-17%)
3-Year Target
$213.85
(-24%)
3-Yr Target (if PE normalizes)
(PE: 20→27)
$282.65
(0%)
3-Year Scenarios
Using analyst projected EPS growth
Bull:
(PE: 21.9, Growth: 46.1%)
$950.82
(+236%)
Base:
(SPY PE: 20.4, Growth: 46.1%)
$882.81
(+212%)
Bear:
(PE: 17.3, Growth: 46.1%)
$750.39
(+165%)
📈
Valuation based on Current Earnings
RECOVERY PLAY: Stock looks expensive now (31x PE), but valuation improves significantly next year (20x PE) as earnings recover.
Forward PE: 30.96 | Forward EPS (Implied): $9.14
Bull Case
$341.54
(+21%)
Analyst growth 15.0%, PE expands to 32.5
Base Case
$282.85
(0%)
Market implied 0.0%, PE stable at 31.0
Bear Case
$216.38
(-24%)
Severe decline -15.0%, PE contracts to 27.9
These are projections based on PE multiples and EPS growth scenarios, not predictions. Actual results may vary significantly.
💡
Upside Surprise Potential
If earnings stabilize (0% growth), PE could expand from 20.4 to 26.9
Stabilization Target:
$373.85
(+32.2%)
PE Expansion Potential:
+32.2%
Share & Embed Analysis
Last updated: June 14, 2026 10:04 PM ET
Data refreshes hourly during market hours. Next update: 11:04 PM
Data refreshes hourly during market hours. Next update: 11:04 PM
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Technical Signals Check
Is ALNY showing a specific setup today?
Insider Activity (6 Months)
0
Buys
20
Sells
Net
INSIDERS SELLING
Recent Transactions
Melissa Mclaughlin
SELL
2286 shares
2026-04-06
Melissa Mclaughlin
SELL
1624 shares
2026-04-02
Kevin Joseph Fitzgerald
SELL
1652 shares
2026-03-03
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